Ha, I figured you might know him. Cool that he's an RU sports fan!
So, the cold and potentially snowy pattern has delivered on the cold for the eastern US and the snow, at least for the south and mid-Atlantic, but obviously not for most of our area (except far SNJ), but that might just change soon. With regard to the pattern, it looks to reload more cold weather for most of this week after seasonable days from now through Monday and then things look like they'll become more active with regard to storms with a few potential winter storms possibly coming next weekend through about 1/24. Beyond that it's looking like late January could also be fairly cold.
Nothing definitive yet on winter storms, but the Euro and GFS (and the AIFS - the AI version of the Euro, which has been quite accurate this winter) have occasionally been showing winter storms for our region (not necessarily all snow especially for 95 and the coast) and the ensembles all show elevated chances of snow for that the 1/19-1/24 period vs. normal. It's worth noting that all of those models have been showing nada after today's event through about 1/17 for 10+ days so it's not like they "always" show snow in the winter - far from it).
The CPC temperature outlook is for a bit below normal temps for 1/18-1/24 and the their precip outlook is for a bit above normal precip - that combo obviously makes wintry weather a bit more likely than usual, but it not a guarantee of seeing wintry weather. Also, it not being as cold as this past week or so likely means that we could see some mixed precip events (whereas the 1/6 and 1/11 storms ended up having so much cold air in place that the storm tracks were suppressed (and poor timing prevented phasing for today's storm, which could've brought a coastal storm closer).
Ask and ye shall receive, lol. The Southern Patagonian Ice Field, where they get ~2000" per year, ftw!
OMG Tango! Thank you so muchAnother Snow Pattern Detected
Another Snow Pattern Detected
This article takes a look at the rest of this week and discusses the snow pattern beginning Monday Jan 20.www.weathernj.com
That's a very good article on what a cold and potentially snowy pattern is - and is not. Lots of chances coming up starting around 1/19 and going for a week or longer beyond that, but no guarantees of significant snow (just greater probabilities than usual).Another Snow Pattern Detected
Another Snow Pattern Detected
This article takes a look at the rest of this week and discusses the snow pattern beginning Monday Jan 20.www.weathernj.com
Summary: quiet this week, then some potential snow/wintry/mix events from about 1/19-1/23 and the polar vortex looks like it's coming around 1/20 for at least several days.
Details: So, after a quiet week this week (seasonable today and tomorrow, then well below normal through Friday with at most a few chances for flurries or a dusting), things could become active next weekend. We're now in the 7-10 day window, where patterns like this first show some winter storms on some model runs and we're definitely seeing that, as today's 12Z Euro shows a significant snowstorm (3-6" type event on the model) for the NEUS (including us) around 1/19 (day 7-8) and the 12Z CMC shows a significant snowstorm (also 3-6" event) for the NEUS (and us) around 1/21 (Day 9-10), while the 12Z GFS shows no storm in that timeframe, but the 6Z GFS showed a significant snowstorm (3-6" event) for the NEUS (and us) around 1/19 and we've also seen some runs with mostly rain, which can always happen with an inland track.
Operational models will often jump around from run to run at this juncture, which is why banking on a snowstorm this far out is foolish - this just shows there's potential. More importantly, the ensemble runs of these three models (Euro/CMC/GFS) have been consistently showing a few to several inches for the ensemble mean snowfall in the Day 7-10 timeframe (about 1/19-1/22) for a few days and continue to do so, which is a fairly strong signal for some snow. This is true even for the 12Z Operational run of the GFS which shows no actual storm (indicates many ensemble members and the mean show snow, while the Op doesn't, which implies the Op may be an outlier).
Beyond about 1/20, it's looking very likely that we're going to get a 4-5 day visit from the polar vortex, bringing very cold Arctic air into the eastern US (all the way down to Florida). For our area this will likely bring a string of days with highs below 32F (and likely in the 20s some days) and lows in the teens to single digits; very cool visualization of this in the first link below. Obviously, this is ridiculously far out for looking at snowfall potential, but clearly if there is cold air around, snow is very possible, especially when the cold starts to relent, as a fairly high percentage of our significant snowstorms occurs near the end of cold patterns with blocking, as per the 2nd link below and the accompanying graphic.
We're just inside 5 days from the start of the event, and we're getting improved indications of at least some wintry weather/snow for our area. The 0Z Euro shows a 2-4" event for all, the CMC shows a 6"+ event 25+ miles NW of 95, but little to no snow for 95 to the coast, the UK shows a 1-2" event for most, the ICON shows a 3-6" event for most, and the GFS shows nada, except for maybe !" way NW.
yeah the standards have been lowered...I think 3 events this year with about 1 to maybe 1.5...in the old days that would be so minor it would just get a small mention or a page or 2. Now with the advent of model watching and model hugging, people latch on to model runs 7 days out that show 4 inches even 8 inches plus and then try to hold out hope it will be one of the possibilites 24 hours before the event
Thank you. I know people will always say it's tough for warm weather teams to win on road in cold weather, but I don't think it will be much of an impact this week since the Rams can run the ball and their defense is playing much better than they were earlier in the season. Should be a good game.
I remember the Buccaneers beating the Packers at Lambeau for the NFC Championship just a few years ago
Brained Lake in Cranbury was icing up but probably still too thin
Today's 12Z runs were all over the place with the Euro/UK/ICON all showing a 1-2/2-4" kind of snowfall for late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, while the CMC showed a much stronger storm bringing 6"+ for areas 30+ miles NW of 95 (like along the DE river in NWNJ/NEPA and NW of there and a very sharp gradient from that to nothing, within 10 miles NW of 95 and from there to the coast), and the GFS showed a near miss for a few inches to our SE with the coast maybe getting 1". The NBM (model blend), below, shows a general 1-2" event for our region and this is where the NWS is leaning as per their discussion, below (noting snow is likely to be <2"). Will likely wait until after tonight's 0Z runs to start a thread, hoping for a bit more model consensus, as we'll be inside 4 days out for those runs.
We had some good skating conditions late last week and into the weekend in the coastal Monmouth county area.. Looked OK today(but no one was on it), and my guess is it will be good tomorrow.
People crapping on the ICON are basing that on old information. It now has higher resolution than even the Euro and did quite well with both Beryl and Ian (tropical) and seems middle of the road for snow in our area. Did quite well for 1/6, when most models had shifted way south showing no snow for CNJ, but it still had an inch or two, but it didn't do great for 1/11. Many pros in Europe, who have more experience with it (it's a German model) seem to like it a lot. None of the models is perfect and they all have their biases, which is why I tend to like the NBM (the model blend) as it might not be as accurate as certain individual models, but will rarely be way off like some models can be.
Sung to Fiddler on the Roof for the Jan. 22-23 event: Supppression, Suppppresssion …. Suppression!Today's 12Z runs were all over the place with the Euro/UK/ICON all showing a 1-2/2-4" kind of snowfall for late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, while the CMC showed a much stronger storm bringing 6"+ for areas 30+ miles NW of 95 (like along the DE river in NWNJ/NEPA and NW of there and a very sharp gradient from that to nothing, within 10 miles NW of 95 and from there to the coast), and the GFS showed a near miss for a few inches to our SE with the coast maybe getting 1". The NBM (model blend), below, shows a general 1-2" event for our region and this is where the NWS is leaning as per their discussion, below (noting snow is likely to be <2"). Will likely wait until after tonight's 0Z runs to start a thread, hoping for a bit more model consensus, as we'll be inside 4 days out for those runs.
The 1/22-23 potential event is literally all over the map from nada, due to suppression from the very cold air mass that will be in place starting Sunday (so a whiff is a decent chance with snow confined to the SE US or mid-Atlantic) to significant snow also being possible, but with major timing differences too, so we're going to need more time to figure out where that's headed.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, tapers off on Saturday
Night, with low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s/low 30s. A
strong arctic front is expected to arrive sometime Sunday, with a
much colder airmass advecting in behind it. Some guidance suggests
potential for a coastal system developing along the front late
Sunday into early Monday, bringing some snowfall to the region. 12z
suite of guidance has trended a bit more favorable in terms of
measurable snowfall. However, given that the system will be rather
weak and progressive, snowfall totals and resulting impacts appear
minor. NBM Probabilities of 2+ inches of snow (also known as
advisory criteria for most of the region) is around 10-20%
regionwide. Have maintained chance PoPs region wide (25-50%), with
the higher end of that range coming for areas south of Philadelphia.
Temperatures on Sunday will climb into the mid to upper 30s/low 40s
on Sunday. This will likely be the last time temperatures get above
freezing until at least the end of next week. The arctic airmass
arrives beginning Sunday Night as lows will drop into the mid to
upper teens with some spots staying above 20.
I do too, but I also like a break from it. Makes where you're going so much sweeter.
Change of scenery always works but there is great scenery in winter too. Will you get some downtime there to hang out a bit?
