OT: Stormy and Potentially Snowy from about 2/8-2/22? (pg 9); OG Thread: Cold and Potentially Snowy Pattern Likely for Most of January

[bac2therac]

Yes we should hit the barn with a big stick and awaken them

They have names

 

[RocktheRac]

Yes. Big Brown Lil Sweetie. Scott

 

[fsg2]

Yes we should hit the barn with a big stick and awaken them

Bet that dog of yours would like to chase 'em around.

Or vice versa.

 

[RUJMM78]

Not enough data. Milltown Mel and Staten Island Chuck were unavailable for comment.

No replacement for Milltown Mel.

 

[ruinac]

Like clockwork. 6:00. Time to for the Board of Ed to announce the delayed opening for tomorrow.

 

[RU848789]

A significant (4-8" - my definition) snowstorm for most on Tues/Weds of next week is more than a fantasy storm now, but nowhere near a given 7-8 days out, as indicated by all three major long range operational models (GFS, Euro, CMC) having shown some version of a storm for several runs in a row, with some of the runs being major snowstorms (8-12"+) and some being more modest 2-4/3-6" events with some mixing and a few showing a near miss (but still a storm north or south of us), plus the ensemble means for these three models are all showing a 3-6" event for this timeframe for everyone (ensembles rarely show as much as an Op run, since they include some runs that are misses that get averaged in with big hits).

The WPC 7-day outlook already has our area in the 50-75% probability of at least 2.5" of snow, which is almost unheard of this far out. And we have a shot at some snow this weekend with a system looking similar to the one tonight into Thursday, plus there are at least a couple more wintry looking systems in the week or so following next Tuesday, so it's a decent bet that the period from 2/8 through about 2/22 will be above normal for snowfall (and perhaps well above normal if at least one of them is a significant storm). As always, though, no guarantees in the snow forecasting world that far out, even in what looks like a stormy/snowy pattern. The AmericanWx thread below has lots of weather porn graphics in it.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61522-february-2025/page/42/

View embedded media

Will probably need to start a thread for the Sat night/Sunday am event soon, probably tonight or tomorrow, as it looks similar to tomorrow's with a thump of snow (ranges from 1-2" to 2-4" for 276/195 up to 78, encompassing CNJ and 3-5" for most north of 78) across the global models right now likely followed by a changeover to sleet, freezing rain (more than tomorrow looks possible, i.e., up to 1/4" for even the 95 corridor) and probably rain, although areas N of 78 may stay all frozen.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ng-sunday-nyc-li-s-of-i78-on-the-edge/page/3/

And the potential Tuesday (into Wednesday) event is still looking possibly significant - Lee Goldberg just said there's a good chance this will be a plowable snow. Today's 12Z Euro shows a 4-8" area-wide snowstorm, the GFS shows maybe 3-5" for CNJ with more south of 276/195 down to DE/SENJ and less north of 80, the UK shows a significant area-wide storm (it stopped at 7 am Weds with more snow on its way), but the CMC doesn't show a Tues/Weds storm, showing an early Thursday storm that gives 1-3" for CNJ and more south of there and less to the north, as it is mostly a miss. Plus, the ensemble model means for the the Euro, GFS and CMC show 2-4/3-6" level snowfall for the Philly-NJ-NYC region for the Tues/Weds period, which is unusually high for a 6+ day ensemble run, indicating a fairly high likelihood of at least moderate snow.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61522-february-2025/page/46/#comments

Finally, there are likely more storms after Tuesday's storm, as per the pattern we're in with a "wave train" of storms ejecting out of the SW US and heading towards us with modest cold air around, which is why we're going to have some that are likely mostly snow and some that are likely mostly rain and some with lots of mixing, like tomorrow's. All of this is explained very nicely by Tomer Burg in the attached link.

 

[Ronnie_B]

Traveling Friday to Vegas for work, looks like I lucked out squeezing between two storms.

 

[bac2therac]

Amazing you are still giving amounts for next week's storm when we have 2 systems to get out of the way

 

[RU848789]

Amazing you are still giving amounts for next week's storm when we have 2 systems to get out of the way

Thank you.