OT: Stormy and Potentially Snowy from about 2/8-2/22? (pg 9); OG Thread: Cold and Potentially Snowy Pattern Likely for Most of January

[RU848789]

Where are you getting 4.5" for the month of January in Philadelphia.
Also I'm talking about total precipitation not just snow. Yes it's a historic low currently. It's on every news station in Philly. We are still in drought here.
I knew the map was wrong the second I stepped out of the house. It was supposed to be that warm at that time.

Below is the snowfall for Philly (airport) for January, so far, showing 4.6" and the link below shows that Philly gets, on average, 6.4" for the entire month (for 1971-2015), which equates to 4.5" from 1/4-1/25, pro-rated for 22 days.

And I've posted several times about Philly and everywhere else in the area experiencing the driest January on record, so far, with <0.5" for most - but Philly's 0.39" of precip this month has been 0.36" of snow (and 0.03" rain) and at a slightly less than 13:1 snow to liquid ratio that equates to 4.6" of snow.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/snowfalltables

And the 1/19 NWS snow forecast map was certainly high vs. what fell for the 95 corridor, but not because it was too warm - much less precip fell vs. what was expected. Philly recorded 0.2" of precip which translated to 2.0" of snow, while snowfall/precip totals rapidly increased just a few miles NW of the Delaware River with most locations just NW of Philly (and 2 locations in NW Philadelphia County) getting 3-4" of snow as was reported in the storm thread and you can also see that from the map in the link below; these locations were all in the upper 30s when precip started - so was Metuchen and we got 3.6". Allentown got over twice as much precip as Philly, with 0.41" of precip, which translated to 5.7" of snow. If the bands of snow had simply hit Philly and adjacent SNJ like they did areas just NW of Philly, the rest of Philly/SNJ would've easily gotten 3-4" of snow (not ~5" as on that map, but much closer).

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/philadelphia-snow-totals-how-much-amounts-20250120.html#:~:text=Generally, however, they ranged from,reported to the weather service.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

A very-late forecasted snowfall here last night/this morning above Boone. 2" so far and still blowin', sideways, of course. Forecast hinted at snow "showers" but it's been pretty steady.

 

[DHajekRC84]

A very-late forecasted snowfall here last night/this morning above Boone. 2" so far and still blowin', sideways, of course. Forecast hinted at snow "showers" but it's been pretty steady.

Heading down to Murrell's inlet sc end of week for our annual month long stay down there for February. Supposed to return back to seasonal mid 50s by the time I get there . Fingers crossed.

 

[charliem24]

Heading down to Murrell's inlet sc end of week for our annual month long stay down there for February. Supposed to return back to seasonal mid 50s by the time I get there . Fingers crossed.

I’m a little over an hour north of MB, supposed to be 70 on Friday and low to mid 60s for the next week, hope they get it right….get those clubs cleaned up.

 

[DHajekRC84]

I’m a little over an hour north of MB, supposed to be 70 on Friday and low to mid 60s for the next week, hope they get it right….get those clubs cleaned up.

Are you the one who moved to Wilmington a few years ago?
This is our 6 or 7th year coming down for February and alternate between Murrell's and Ocean Isle every other year.

I just happened to look and see if RU might be playing coastal Carolina while there. Well they actually are..3 games... Starting the day we leave for Flagler beach FL. Crap!

 

[charliem24]

Are you the one who moved to Wilmington a few years ago?
This is our 6 or 7th year coming down for February and alternate between Murrell's and Ocean Isle every other year.

I just happened to look and see if RU might be playing coastal Carolina while there. Well they actually are..3 games... Starting the day we leave for Flagler beach FL. Crap!

Yea, actually in Leland, just across the River from Wilmington. Are you playing golf in MB ?

 

[DHajekRC84]

Yea, actually in Leland, just across the River from Wilmington. Are you playing golf in MB ?

Well due to back surgery last year I have only played 1 round in 3:years. That was last year in OIB. But I am bringing clubs to plan to get at least a round in.

We have friends who moved to Leland a couple years ago too.

 

[RU848789]

Well due to back surgery last year I have only played 1 round in 3:years. That was last year in OIB. But I am bringing clubs to plan to get at least a round in.

We have friends who moved to Leland a couple years ago too.

WTF, you've derailed my thread! Just kidding. I think you'll actually see mostly average to above average temps in coastal SC for at least the first 2 weeks of Feb (and maybe longer), given the CPC trend forecast for there and much of the east, so plenty of days with highs in the low to mid 60s and if you're lucky, you might sneak in a 70F day or two later in the month. Enjoy the golf - hope your back is good enough for you to play. My aunt's family had a condo in Hilton Head that I visited a few times and played a bunch of golf (this was the 80s/90s when I played a lot); they sold it years ago, though. So many good courses down in SC (although some fairly boring ones too).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

 

[Knight Shift]

January cold out like a lamb

 

[WhiteBus]

January cold out like a lamb

View embedded media

We definitely need the rain.

 

[bac2therac]

January cold out like a lamb

View embedded media

Sad trombone

 

[DHajekRC84]

WTF, you've derailed my thread! Just kidding. I think you'll actually see mostly average to above average temps in coastal SC for at least the first 2 weeks of Feb (and maybe longer), given the CPC trend forecast for there and much of the east, so plenty of days with highs in the low to mid 60s and if you're lucky, you might sneak in a 70F day or two later in the month. Enjoy the golf - hope your back is good enough for you to play. My aunt's family had a condo in Hilton Head that I visited a few times and played a bunch of golf (this was the 80s/90s when I played a lot); they sold it years ago, though. So many good courses down in SC (although some fairly boring ones too).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Yeah sorry.. it's nearly end of January and I was keeping it active. You now need to start a February thread.
Thanks for the info. That's pretty much what we have experienced over the years.

Actually I would be interested in your thoughts for Feb weather up here as my daughter will be staying in our home as she waits to close on her first home purchase. Already gave her a lesson on the garden tractor snow plow just in case..but Acuweather shows it quite mild again this year (it was last year too). Perhaps we should leave for January instead but I digress.

 

[RU848789]

Yeah sorry.. it's nearly end of January and I was keeping it active. You now need to start a February thread.
Thanks for the info. That's pretty much what we have experienced over the years.

Actually I would be interested in your thoughts for Feb weather up here as my daughter will be staying in our home as she waits to close on her first home purchase. Already gave her a lesson on the garden tractor snow plow just in case..but Acuweather shows it quite mild again this year (it was last year too). Perhaps we should leave for January instead but I digress.

You're welcome. I'd expect somewhat similar departures here as in SC in Feb if the CPC is right, although less pronounced warmth vs. normal, as the CPC has our area's temps predicted to be a little bit above normal through about 2/21 and the same for precip. But in February, one can still get plenty of snow with a bit above normal temps, as we saw for much of the 2000-2020 period, which was the 2nd snowiest 20-year period for most of our area (out of the last 150 years or so), while being warmer than normal. So many are predicting a fast changing pattern with numerous short cold (but not cold like we saw last week) and warm cycles with frequent precip.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

 

[RU848789]

Don't look now, folks, but some of the medium/long-range models are showing an active, potentially snowy pattern with numerous winter storms taking tracks to possibly impact our area over the next 10-15 days (and maybe beyond that), starting with a possible mixed precip event on 2/5-2/6 and then another event that could be more significant next weekend and then maybe a couple more the week after that. This does not look to be a particularly cold pattern (more like alternating shots of cold and warm, but not very cold/warm), but it does look to be a possibly stormy pattern, which in February means possibly snow, mix, rain, everything - this is the kind of pattern where we might see a couple of those front end snow thump to mix to rain scenarios.

I'm sure a couple of 15-day GFS maps from today are going to start circulating on social media shortly (shows 1-2 feet of snow over this period for the entire region, with the higher amounts favored NW of 95, due to less likelihood of warm air/mixing/rain). The Euro and CMC are not showing anywhere near that much snow, but they are showing a couple of wintry events, each, and all of the ensemble means are showing potential for snow during this period, so it's a period to watch - especially next weekend into the following week.

The 2/5-2/6 event (kind of 2 events, really, but close in time) looks more likely to be rain with some mix possible for the 95 corridor and SE of there, but several models are showing a few inches of snow N of 78/NW of 287 and especially N of 80/NW of 287, which means the snow for the 95 corridor isn't out of the question, as is shown on the GFS. Still not thread worthy, IMO, but could be in a day or two.

 

[zappaa]

Don’t want to look, I’m dealing with my first ever joint related injury…a grade 3 separated shoulder… I can’t shovel😊
For a few weeks anyway.

 

[RU848789]

Don’t want to look, I’m dealing with my first ever joint related injury…a grade 3 separated shoulder… I can’t shovel😊
For a few weeks anyway.

Ouch...good luck with that...

 

[T2Kplus20]

Don’t want to look, I’m dealing with my first ever joint related injury…a grade 3 separated shoulder… I can’t shovel😊
For a few weeks anyway.

Head-first dive trying to steal 3rd?

 

[zappaa]

Head-first dive trying to steal 3rd?

My 3 mile run with Coco The Dog.
Tripped going down a hill on the pavement

 

[WhiteBus]

My 3 mile run with Coco The Dog.
Tripped going down a hill on the pavement

Ouch. Get better quickly.

 

[WhiteBus]

Don't look now, folks, but some of the medium/long-range models are showing an active, potentially snowy pattern with numerous winter storms taking tracks to possibly impact our area over the next 10-15 days (and maybe beyond that), starting with a possible mixed precip event on 2/5-2/6 and then another event that could be more significant next weekend and then maybe a couple more the week after that. This does not look to be a particularly cold pattern (more like alternating shots of cold and warm, but not very cold/warm), but it does look to be a possibly stormy pattern, which in February means possibly snow, mix, rain, everything - this is the kind of pattern where we might see a couple of those front end snow thump to mix to rain scenarios.

I'm sure a couple of 15-day GFS maps from today are going to start circulating on social media shortly (shows 1-2 feet of snow over this period for the entire region, with the higher amounts favored NW of 95, due to less likelihood of warm air/mixing/rain). The Euro and CMC are not showing anywhere near that much snow, but they are showing a couple of wintry events, each, and all of the ensemble means are showing potential for snow during this period, so it's a period to watch - especially next weekend into the following week.

The 2/5-2/6 event (kind of 2 events, really, but close in time) looks more likely to be rain with some mix possible for the 95 corridor and SE of there, but several models are showing a few inches of snow N of 78/NW of 287 and especially N of 80/NW of 287, which means the snow for the 95 corridor isn't out of the question, as is shown on the GFS. Still not thread worthy, IMO, but could be in a day or two.

Thursday the 6th?? It's going to be 52 as the high and a low of 40 and wet

 

[MadRU]

 

[T2Kplus20]

Thursday the 6th?? It's going to be 52 as the high and a low of 40 and wet

You haven't seen his wishcasting models. 2/6 is going to be 10 degrees and dump 20 inches of snow on NJ!

 

[29PAS]

My 3 mile run with Coco The Dog.
Tripped going down a hill on the pavement

Is Coco a Lab?

 

[bac2therac]

Don't look now, folks, but some of the medium/long-range models are showing an active, potentially snowy pattern with numerous winter storms taking tracks to possibly impact our area over the next 10-15 days (and maybe beyond that), starting with a possible mixed precip event on 2/5-2/6 and then another event that could be more significant next weekend and then maybe a couple more the week after that. This does not look to be a particularly cold pattern (more like alternating shots of cold and warm, but not very cold/warm), but it does look to be a possibly stormy pattern, which in February means possibly snow, mix, rain, everything - this is the kind of pattern where we might see a couple of those front end snow thump to mix to rain scenarios.

I'm sure a couple of 15-day GFS maps from today are going to start circulating on social media shortly (shows 1-2 feet of snow over this period for the entire region, with the higher amounts favored NW of 95, due to less likelihood of warm air/mixing/rain). The Euro and CMC are not showing anywhere near that much snow, but they are showing a couple of wintry events, each, and all of the ensemble means are showing potential for snow during this period, so it's a period to watch - especially next weekend into the following week.

The 2/5-2/6 event (kind of 2 events, really, but close in time) looks more likely to be rain with some mix possible for the 95 corridor and SE of there, but several models are showing a few inches of snow N of 78/NW of 287 and especially N of 80/NW of 287, which means the snow for the 95 corridor isn't out of the question, as is shown on the GFS. Still not thread worthy, IMO, but could be in a day or two.

Lol its February

News at 11

 

[RU848789]

Thursday the 6th?? It's going to be 52 as the high and a low of 40 and wet

If the 18Z Euro is right, Philly will have a bit of mix to freezing rain to rain late Weds night into early Thursday, followed by more rain as temps shoot up into the 50s. If the GFS is right, Philly will have maybe 1" of snow/sleet late Weds/early Thurs, followed by a cold rain with a high in the mid-30s. Other models are in between those, so right now the uncertainty is pretty large, as per the NWS-Philly discussion below. Making definitive statements about what's going to happen is unwarranted right now.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern looks more active in this period. A low pressure system
with a warm front/cold front pair is likely to approach and affect
our region in the Wednesday through Thursday night time period.
However, there are some very large differences in guidance, track,
and the evolution of the low. Consequently, there is considerable
uncertainty in the timing and what type of precipitation we will see
with this system, but it does appear likely that there will be at
least widespread precipitation at some point during this period. A
few models are depicting a split flow pattern which are notoriously
hard to model and resolve more than a few days out.

 

[RU848789]

Don't look now, folks, but some of the medium/long-range models are showing an active, potentially snowy pattern with numerous winter storms taking tracks to possibly impact our area over the next 10-15 days (and maybe beyond that), starting with a possible mixed precip event on 2/5-2/6 and then another event that could be more significant next weekend and then maybe a couple more the week after that. This does not look to be a particularly cold pattern (more like alternating shots of cold and warm, but not very cold/warm), but it does look to be a possibly stormy pattern, which in February means possibly snow, mix, rain, everything - this is the kind of pattern where we might see a couple of those front end snow thump to mix to rain scenarios.

I'm sure a couple of 15-day GFS maps from today are going to start circulating on social media shortly (shows 1-2 feet of snow over this period for the entire region, with the higher amounts favored NW of 95, due to less likelihood of warm air/mixing/rain). The Euro and CMC are not showing anywhere near that much snow, but they are showing a couple of wintry events, each, and all of the ensemble means are showing potential for snow during this period, so it's a period to watch - especially next weekend into the following week.

The 2/5-2/6 event (kind of 2 events, really, but close in time) looks more likely to be rain with some mix possible for the 95 corridor and SE of there, but several models are showing a few inches of snow N of 78/NW of 287 and especially N of 80/NW of 287, which means the snow for the 95 corridor isn't out of the question, as is shown on the GFS. Still not thread worthy, IMO, but could be in a day or two.

Tonight's 0Z models continue to show a stormy and probably snowy pattern ahead, but the long range is difficult to forecast, as illustrated by the global models being all over the place for the possible 2/8 storm with outcomes ranging from a significant snowstorm (GFS/CMC) to nada (UK) to a cutter that brings a bit of initial snow and then mostly rain (Euro). And after that, more storms are appearing in the long range guidance. While it's always dicey for snow for our area (given the risk of warmer temps/rain), areas well NW of 95 and especially New England look to possibly get a lot of snow in this pattern.

However, we do have a legitimate wintry threat for 2/5-6 coming into view. Still high uncertainty, but the GFS has an inch or so of snow/mix and some rain falling late Weds into Thursday for the area, the CMC has a general 1-2" of snow/mix falling through Thurs early morning followed by some rain, the UK has a general 3-5" falling for the area, ending as a bit of rain, and the Euro has a bit of sleet/freezing rain to start followed by mostly rain. If we get a bit more consensus by tomorrow night (3 days out), will likely start a thread on this.

Also, almost all of the models have an inch or maybe 2" falling late Sunday night, mostly along/N of 78, but there could be coatings to 1/2" for most of CNJ south of 78, including the 95 corridor, but probably no snow towards and south of 276/195. This would melt quickly after sunrise on Monday with highs near 50F for most. Nice graphic below showing the very active jet stream/storm track aimed in our general direction particularly during the 2nd week of February - likely storms and some could be snowy (but no guarantees yet).

 

[RU848789]

View embedded media

He does a decent job with that video, although 2 days ago he said, "Pack your bags, winter is gone" on his Twitter page, so a grain of salt is needed with that guy.
https://x.com/MaxVelocityWX/status/1885019249652998655/photo/1

 

[RU848789]

Minor snowfall tonight (Sun, 2/2) N of 276/195. I'm busy with family in Florida, so not starting a thread on this, but someone else may feel like it.

Most of the models have some snow falling late Sunday night, with the NWS predicting a coating to an inch from 276/195 up to about 78 and an inch or so from 78 to 80 and 1-2" mostly along N of 78 with the 2" amounts most likely NE of NYC. This could have an impact on the Monday morning rush hour anywhere 3/4" or more of snow falls, especially given that any snow that falls should accumulate with temps around 30-32F and likely won't get above 32F until 8-9 am for most, although any snow would melt quickly after that with highs in the mid/upper 40s for most.

https://www.weather.gov/phi

 

[bac2therac]

Lol please no

 

[T2Kplus20]

Lol please no

You know things are getting desperate for snow weenies when Numbers starts to spam post.

 

[rurichdog]

Tonight's 0Z models continue to show a stormy and probably snowy pattern ahead, but the long range is difficult to forecast, as illustrated by the global models being all over the place for the possible 2/8 storm with outcomes ranging from a significant snowstorm (GFS/CMC) to nada (UK) to a cutter that brings a bit of initial snow and then mostly rain (Euro). And after that, more storms are appearing in the long range guidance. While it's always dicey for snow for our area (given the risk of warmer temps/rain), areas well NW of 95 and especially New England look to possibly get a lot of snow in this pattern.

However, we do have a legitimate wintry threat for 2/5-6 coming into view. Still high uncertainty, but the GFS has an inch or so of snow/mix and some rain falling late Weds into Thursday for the area, the CMC has a general 1-2" of snow/mix falling through Thurs early morning followed by some rain, the UK has a general 3-5" falling for the area, ending as a bit of rain, and the Euro has a bit of sleet/freezing rain to start followed by mostly rain. If we get a bit more consensus by tomorrow night (3 days out), will likely start a thread on this.

Also, almost all of the models have an inch or maybe 2" falling late Sunday night, mostly along/N of 78, but there could be coatings to 1/2" for most of CNJ south of 78, including the 95 corridor, but probably no snow towards and south of 276/195. This would melt quickly after sunrise on Monday with highs near 50F for most. Nice graphic below showing the very active jet stream/storm track aimed in our general direction particularly during the 2nd week of February - likely storms and some could be snowy (but no guarantees yet).

View embedded media

Haven't really done deep look at model runs and whatnot, but the nifty upper air graphic doesn't show us in the entrance region of those jet streaks. Obviously this is just more model output and actual jet streak positioning is TBD, but as modeled above, NJ doesn't really catch the areas of greatest PVA from the amplified jet. Impressive, but you don't really want them sitting directly on top of you for greatest diffluence and PVA.

 

[bac2therac]

Haven't really done deep look at model runs and whatnot, but the nifty upper air graphic doesn't show us in the entrance region of those jet streaks. Obviously this is just more model output and actual jet streak positioning is TBD, but as modeled above, NJ doesn't really catch the areas of greatest PVA from the amplified jet. Impressive, but you don't really want them sitting directly on top of you for greatest diffluence and PVA.

Not our event and temps rise in many areas anyhow

 

[RU848789]

A bit of a bump up in snowfall forecasts for tonight...

 

[T2Kplus20]

A bit of a bump up in snowfall forecasts for tonight...

From absolutely nothing to pretty much nothing. LOL! Hysterical thread.

 

[bac2therac]

Underperformed here..barely a dusting and its winding down already

Wednesday night so called threat tending wetter after frozen start possible but nothing set in stone

 

[RU848789]

Haven't really done deep look at model runs and whatnot, but the nifty upper air graphic doesn't show us in the entrance region of those jet streaks. Obviously this is just more model output and actual jet streak positioning is TBD, but as modeled above, NJ doesn't really catch the areas of greatest PVA from the amplified jet. Impressive, but you don't really want them sitting directly on top of you for greatest diffluence and PVA.

Yeah, that was more just to show the general jet flow which should bring us a parade of potential storms, but the devil will be in the details with regard to tracks, PVA, interactions with lobes of the polar vortex, etc., all of which will impact how much precip and how much of that is snow or mix or rain. In the more recent pattern the cold was essentially a given and the big question was whether we'd get any precip to ride up into that confluence/cold and we got just enough for average snowfall for most during that period, but the two big storms were suppressed to out south...but in this kind of pattern, we're very likely to get the precip, but the big question will be whether that coincides well with the occasional shots of cold air to bring snow (or more mix or rain).

 

[RU848789]

According to friends we got a nice coating of about 1/4", while areas not far north of us (along/N of 78 and especially in NYC and NE of there), many folks got at least an inch and up to 2". As expected, minor at most.

 

[RU848789]

Underperformed here..barely a dusting and its winding down already

Wednesday night so called threat tending wetter after frozen start possible but nothing set in stone

I wouldn't say it's "trending" any particular way for Weds into Thurs - just seems like we're seeing wide variations from run-to-run within models and across models. GFS/UK still have a few inches of an early thump at least and then sleet/freezing rain possible and then rain, while the CMC has <1" of snow/sleet, but does have 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain for folks along/NW of 95, which would be a real problem. The Euro has 1-2" from a bit south of 78 and north of there (maybe the northern half of CNJ), followed by some freezing rain NW of 95 and then rain. So, certainly could have modest impacts, especially for any areas that get freezing rain, which looks most likely along/NW of 95 and along/N of 78, as usual (fairly rare to see much ZR on the coastal plain).

The storm next weekend is similarly all over the map with outcomes from mostly rain to mostly snow (2-4/3-6" kind of event is possible if mostly snow with more N of 80) and again a mix, including freezing rain, is also possible. And every model is showing a decent snowstorm (possibly changing to rain after a thump of snow) for Day 9-10, but that's pretty far out - will be interesting to track that one.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Got about an inch or so on the ground here. Nuisance snow. Couldn't believe I woke up around 1:20 to hear them using a friggin' front loader to clear this.

 

[rurichdog]

I wouldn't say it's "trending" any particular way for Weds into Thurs - just seems like we're seeing wide variations from run-to-run within models and across models. GFS/UK still have a few inches of an early thump at least and then sleet/freezing rain possible and then rain, while the CMC has <1" of snow/sleet, but does have 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain for folks along/NW of 95, which would be a real problem. The Euro has 1-2" from a bit south of 78 and north of there (maybe the northern half of CNJ), followed by some freezing rain NW of 95 and then rain. So, certainly could have modest impacts, especially for any areas that get freezing rain, which looks most likely along/NW of 95 and along/N of 78, as usual (fairly rare to see much ZR on the coastal plain).

The storm next weekend is similarly all over the map with outcomes from mostly rain to mostly snow (2-4/3-6" kind of event is possible if mostly snow with more N of 80) and again a mix, including freezing rain, is also possible. And every model is showing a decent snowstorm (possibly changing to rain after a thump of snow) for Day 9-10, but that's pretty far out - will be interesting to track that one.

This will be a good two weeks to track storms indeed. The NYC Metro weenie board has a February 2025 thread that is already 33 pages deep 😳😆😅🤣