OT: Stormy and Potentially Snowy from about 2/8-2/22? (pg 9); OG Thread: Cold and Potentially Snowy Pattern Likely for Most of January
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Will probably need to start a thread for the Sat night/Sunday am event soon, probably tonight or tomorrow, as it looks similar to tomorrow's with a thump of snow (ranges from 1-2" to 2-4" for 276/195 up to 78, encompassing CNJ and 3-5" for most north of 78) across the global models right now likely followed by a changeover to sleet, freezing rain (more than tomorrow looks possible, i.e., up to 1/4" for even the 95 corridor) and probably rain, although areas N of 78 may stay all frozen.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ng-sunday-nyc-li-s-of-i78-on-the-edge/page/3/
And the potential Tuesday (into Wednesday) event is still looking possibly significant - Lee Goldberg just said there's a good chance this will be a plowable snow. Today's 12Z Euro shows a 4-8" area-wide snowstorm, the GFS shows maybe 3-5" for CNJ with more south of 276/195 down to DE/SENJ and less north of 80, the UK shows a significant area-wide storm (it stopped at 7 am Weds with more snow on its way), but the CMC doesn't show a Tues/Weds storm, showing an early Thursday storm that gives 1-3" for CNJ and more south of there and less to the north, as it is mostly a miss. Plus, the ensemble model means for the the Euro, GFS and CMC show 2-4/3-6" level snowfall for the Philly-NJ-NYC region for the Tues/Weds period, which is unusually high for a 6+ day ensemble run, indicating a fairly high likelihood of at least moderate snow.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61522-february-2025/page/46/#comments
Finally, there are likely more storms after Tuesday's storm, as per the pattern we're in with a "wave train" of storms ejecting out of the SW US and heading towards us with modest cold air around, which is why we're going to have some that are likely mostly snow and some that are likely mostly rain and some with lots of mixing, like tomorrow's. All of this is explained very nicely by Tomer Burg in the attached link.
Concentrate on the game not next week models
2/11-2/12 Event Preview: We're now within 5 days of this event and it's being talked about by forecasters in the media and on social media as being a potentially significant (4-8”) and maybe even major (8”+) snowstorm for the Philly-NJ-NYC region with little mixing if the current modeling and pattern hold. Briefly, the 12Z models included the following. The GFS is in the 6-12” range, the UK/CMC are in the 4-8” range and the Euro is in the 3-6” range. However, the 18Z GFS is still in the 6-12" range and the 18Z Euro bumped up to 4-8" for the region. This is not a storm where snowfall is expected to be held down by mixing like today’s or this weekend’s for some areas – the lower and higher amounts will mostly be about where the most precip falls with little mixing likely except for maybe far southern NJ. Start time looks like Tuesday late morning to late afternoon and end time looks to be around sunrise Wednesday to early afternoon Wednesday. Plenty of time to nail down the details. Will likely start a thread on this late tomorrow if we're still looking at a significant snowstorm.
And it's also looking like we might have another winter storm on the heels of this one, reaching us next Thursday night/Friday. Looks like it could be similar to the storm this weekend with lots of snow to the north and snow to mix/rain to the south - models all over the place on this one, though, which is not surprising 7-8 days out.
And it's also looking like we might have another winter storm on the heels of this one, reaching us next Thursday night/Friday. Looks like it could be similar to the storm this weekend with lots of snow to the north and snow to mix/rain to the south - models all over the place on this one, though, which is not surprising 7-8 days out.
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Let's get through the weekend storm as models will shift somewhat in its wake
Looks like a lot of negative talk on next weeks storms now on the americanwx thread about it. Looks like another year without using the snow blower. 3 years now and counting
That's silly. Just looking at CNJ, the 12Z Euro shows 3-6", the 12Z UK shows 4-8", the 12Z GFS shows 1-4" (much more towards the coast), the 12Z CMC shows 4-6" and the ICON shows 4-7". Maybe not the 8+" seen in some earlier runs, but still a moderate to significant storm.
The storm after the Tues/Weds one on Th/Fr looks wetter than white with the Euro/CMC showing all rain south of 84, but the GFS, UK, and ICON all show about 2-4" for CNJ on the front end, but likely changing to rain, although that could still change.
because the talk of a huge long duration system is going by the wayside...thats talking about it a week a way is fruitless since the models come back to reality the closer we get
Main comment on the 2/11-12 event is that we’ve seen a bit of a southward track shift since about 36 hours ago, meaning most of the global models are now showing significant snow only for SENJ/DlMarVA with maybe 1-2/2-4” for Philly/CNJ/NYC, but very little N of 80. Having said that the models were even further south with the track through most of yesterday/last night, but have come back north somewhat this morning/afternoon.
It wouldn’t take much of a track adjustment to put our whole region back into 2-4” or even 4-8” level snow and many pros believe that the synoptic setup is ripe for that, but we’ll just have to see, given we’re almost 4 days out (vs. data inputs to the 12Z models) from a Tuesday night start and much can still change. In addition, the Euro AI model which has had the best track performance this winter is showing a few inches NW of 95 and several along/SE of 95, which is a good sign for snow. More storms are likely after this one although they currently look more wet than white, so stay tuned. Will probably start a threat tonight after the 0Z models come out, unless they all show nothing, lol.
+1
Can't even call it a dusting. Seems like it is already raining. Going to be 40 tomorrow, so who cares?
nope, time for a thread on the Tuesday night/Weds system - most likely a minor to moderate event for most, especially south of 80. Not quite what it looked like 3-4 days ago, but more than it looked like yesterday.
Summary: Heads up that it looks like a possibly significant winter storm next Thursday. Could impact all of us, but also might be a minor to non-event - just too far out to forecast accurately yet.
Details: After Saturdays likely minor/moderate snow to heavy rain event, we have a threat for a winter storm centered around 2/20, about a week from now, which is no longer in fantasy land and the pattern for next week is ripe for cold/snow. The Euro, GFS, and CMC have all been showing winter storms of varying outcomes for the past few days, and today at 12Z the models continue to show a significant winter storm coming up the coast and possibly affecting our area or mostly missing it, but as would be expected 7-8 days out, the details are quite varied and like with any possible winter storm around here, the complexities and uncertainties are high.
The outcomes have been ranging from a complete miss for most with a little snow in SENJ to a "coastal scraper" system very similar to Tuesday's where most of us get a minor to moderate snowfall with SENJ getting a significant snowfall to a significant snowstorm for the entire megalopolis from DC to Boston; we haven't seen any inland snow to rain cutters yet, but that can't be ruled out this far in advance. So while there is potential for a significant winter storm, this could easily still be a miss or just a minor event for most of us (like Tuesday) - and so far, this winter, the storms that looked significant to even major 7-8 days out have generally ended up being minor hits for most of the area (or even misses) and more significant hits for fringe parts of our area (i.e., SENJ or well NW of 95).
This is merely a heads up that there is potential for a decent winter storm in a week, not a forecast for such, although we're already seeing a ramp up in wild speculation on social media for snowmageddon. As a met from our area on AmericanWx put it well: "There's a LOT of hype by the social media cowboy click weather enthusiasts for next week. Good lord! If all of their weeks out predictions came true I'd be sitting on 70 inches this season."
And FYI, the pattern for next week features cold air in place (so snow would be most likely), via confluence from the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV), plus, the -NAO block is fading, while a 50/50 low and slight SE ridging will hopefully guide the eventual coastal low up the coast (avoiding suppression); significant snowstorms are much more likely in this kind of pattern, historically, but nowhere near guaranteed. Lots of pattern/storm discussion in the AmericanWx thread below.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61522-february-2025/page/71/
Details: After Saturdays likely minor/moderate snow to heavy rain event, we have a threat for a winter storm centered around 2/20, about a week from now, which is no longer in fantasy land and the pattern for next week is ripe for cold/snow. The Euro, GFS, and CMC have all been showing winter storms of varying outcomes for the past few days, and today at 12Z the models continue to show a significant winter storm coming up the coast and possibly affecting our area or mostly missing it, but as would be expected 7-8 days out, the details are quite varied and like with any possible winter storm around here, the complexities and uncertainties are high.
The outcomes have been ranging from a complete miss for most with a little snow in SENJ to a "coastal scraper" system very similar to Tuesday's where most of us get a minor to moderate snowfall with SENJ getting a significant snowfall to a significant snowstorm for the entire megalopolis from DC to Boston; we haven't seen any inland snow to rain cutters yet, but that can't be ruled out this far in advance. So while there is potential for a significant winter storm, this could easily still be a miss or just a minor event for most of us (like Tuesday) - and so far, this winter, the storms that looked significant to even major 7-8 days out have generally ended up being minor hits for most of the area (or even misses) and more significant hits for fringe parts of our area (i.e., SENJ or well NW of 95).
This is merely a heads up that there is potential for a decent winter storm in a week, not a forecast for such, although we're already seeing a ramp up in wild speculation on social media for snowmageddon. As a met from our area on AmericanWx put it well: "There's a LOT of hype by the social media cowboy click weather enthusiasts for next week. Good lord! If all of their weeks out predictions came true I'd be sitting on 70 inches this season."
And FYI, the pattern for next week features cold air in place (so snow would be most likely), via confluence from the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV), plus, the -NAO block is fading, while a 50/50 low and slight SE ridging will hopefully guide the eventual coastal low up the coast (avoiding suppression); significant snowstorms are much more likely in this kind of pattern, historically, but nowhere near guaranteed. Lots of pattern/storm discussion in the AmericanWx thread below.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61522-february-2025/page/71/
Have you seen tonight's GFS, CMC, UK and Euro? The UK is the least snowy of all 4 major global models for 2/20 and it shows 12-18" for the entire region and for DC to Boston; the GFS shows the most with 18-32", the CMC shows 12-24" and the Euro shows 12-20". I've never seen anything like this before in decades of tracking storms - consensus on an historic east coast snowstorm 6 days out. Obviously, actual storms like this are rare, so it might not happen at all, but this is as strong a signal for at least a significant (4-8") to major (8-12"+) snowstorm (my definitions) one is ever likely to see this far out.
I'd love to post the maps, but that goes against my nature of not wanting to get too excited about events too early (other than on actual weather boards, lol). But if you're dying to see the maps see the link below or just wait until tomorrow as I'm sure social media will be on fire with snowmageddon posts and maps. If we see continued consensus through tomorrow on at least a significant snowstorm (4-8" IMO), it'll be thread time even though that's 5 days out - most of the time the big ones are smelled out well ahead of time.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61522-february-2025/page/78/
Edit: note that every one of these models has temps in the teens to low 20s for the entire event, so mixing isn't really a concern and snow ratios would likely be fairly high - it's pretty unusual to have a snowstorm that cold around these parts
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That someone could not have seen tonight's models. There's only a few thousand people who know about this in the world right now, but there will be millions who know about it by tomorrow night, as this shit is about to go viral. This one will be a true kick in the head if we don't get at least a decent, significant (4-8") snowstorm out of it and I have no frame of reference for this, as I've simply never seen this kind of consensus this far out before. Some sleepless nights ahead, lol.
Dan Zarrow 101.5 has officially jumped on the hype machine. He has turned into a weenie in recent years which is disappointing since he was always conservative, He said this is the biggest storm he has ever seen. Could be 0 to over 2 feet for our area but of course he put in the always important disclaimer.
In regard to the impending “Storm Of The Century”, can we at least wait until Monday before the hype machine hits full throttle? It seems this happens every few years and within a few days everything changes.
I don't think the folks on the two weather boards I post on liked when I posted this morning that the Euro AIFS model (their AI model) was largely a miss out to sea 3 of the last 4 runs, with snow mostly confined to SENJ/DelMarVa. And that's exactly what just happened for the 12Z GFS run, which was a significant hit for far SENJ/DelMarVa, but missed for anyone along/NW of 95. Doesn't mean, at all, that the threat is dead, but it certainly reminds people that there can be huge changes 6 days out.
And right on cue, the 12Z CMC is still a major snowstorm for all wit 10-16" for all, using the Kuchera algrorithm for snow/liquid ratio, since every model has temps in the teens to low 20s for this event (which is very unusual for these parts), meaning one would expect a very light/fluffy snow. And the UK is also still a major snowstorm with 12-24" for all. Going to be a long 5-6 more days, lol.
Edit: and the Euro is another big hit with 12-24" area-wide. So just the GFS as a near miss and the Euro-AIFS as almost a complete miss, while the Euro/CMC/UK Op runs and the ensembles for all 3 and the GFS actually all show a significant to major storm being likely. Long way to go still. If we have most/all of the models in agreement after tonight (5 days out), will probably start a thread.
And right on cue, the 12Z CMC is still a major snowstorm for all wit 10-16" for all, using the Kuchera algrorithm for snow/liquid ratio, since every model has temps in the teens to low 20s for this event (which is very unusual for these parts), meaning one would expect a very light/fluffy snow. And the UK is also still a major snowstorm with 12-24" for all. Going to be a long 5-6 more days, lol.
Edit: and the Euro is another big hit with 12-24" area-wide. So just the GFS as a near miss and the Euro-AIFS as almost a complete miss, while the Euro/CMC/UK Op runs and the ensembles for all 3 and the GFS actually all show a significant to major storm being likely. Long way to go still. If we have most/all of the models in agreement after tonight (5 days out), will probably start a thread.
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For tomorrow night? Near here? Looked like they had 1-3" for our area with 5-8" north of 84.
It's unavoidable with modern social media. Some people, especially those with a monetary incentive, just want/need to get clicks. It's why I always add significant caveats to any posts in situations like this.
Just a half our ago at work I heard some coworkers saying “Did you hear next week 12 -24” we are getting” lol
I like seeing how it tracks the next few days. I won’t be confident in anything I see before Tuesday tbh
If this still looks like a big storm on Monday, I'll start to have more confidence, since if all the players on the field look then like they project to look now, the rest of the forecast becomes much more likely, i.e., the things that can go significantly "wrong" to make this system be a miss or near miss will very likely occur between now and Monday.
