"Latest models do not phase the storm in time which would mean the majority of the snow stays offshore this weekend."
OT (Updated): The Saturday 1/11 Event Now Looking Like <1" with a Whiff Possible on the Low Side and 1-2" Possible on the High Side
- Thread starter RU848789
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Here's the NWS's latest forcecast discussion. It is wildly inconsistent with their map above. So I can't blame you for being surprised.The 12Z models seemed similar to the 6Z models with some having <1" (and near zero for many locations) and some having 1" or so with a few spots to 1.5-2.0", especially SE of 95 towards the coast, so maybe an overall average of 1" just based on models and that's kind of what the NBM (model blend) is showing, below. However, the NWS put out a snowfall map around 10 am which, surprisingly, has roughly 1-2" from 276/195 up to 80 (less N of 80) and 2-3" south of 276/196. I am kind of puzzled to say the least.
From there, the main focus shifts to the potential for a little
wintry weather Friday night into Saturday. Guidance has
congealed more closely around the weak/southern low track with
only a bit of light snow affecting our region. Most models do
show some light precip across the region, associated more with
the northern piece of energy than the coastal low, but either
way, did include likely pops for snow later Friday night into
Saturday morning. However, accumulations at best look like an
inch or two, so possibly a low-end advisory event across our
southeastern zones of NJ and DE. Elsewhere, likely an
essentially non-event. After lows in the 20s Friday night, highs
return to the 30s for Saturday as the clouds break for some sun
later in the day.
US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Not much change to the forecast for the light snowfall accumulations late Friday night through Saturday morning. Generally expecting around 1-2" across the board, although some spots could end up with slightly more or less.
Dan Zarrow
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE... Folks, I'm not sure we're even expecting enough snow on Saturday morning to draw an official snowfall forecast map. 😮
The track is too far south and east, and the storm will phase way too late off the coast.
Parts of Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia are expecting 3-6" of snow. (Which would be *crippling* for them, given a lack of snow-clearing equipment.)
But here in New Jersey? Maybe an inch. That's it. Don't cancel your weekend plans, but be prepared for slippery roads.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE... Folks, I'm not sure we're even expecting enough snow on Saturday morning to draw an official snowfall forecast map. 😮
The track is too far south and east, and the storm will phase way too late off the coast.
Parts of Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia are expecting 3-6" of snow. (Which would be *crippling* for them, given a lack of snow-clearing equipment.)
But here in New Jersey? Maybe an inch. That's it. Don't cancel your weekend plans, but be prepared for slippery roads.
The 12Z models seemed similar to the 6Z models with some having <1" (and near zero for many locations) and some having 1" or so with a few spots to 1.5-2.0", especially SE of 95 towards the coast, so maybe an overall average of 1" just based on models and that's kind of what the 13Z NBM (model blend) is showing, below. However, the NWS put out a snowfall map around 10 am which, surprisingly, has roughly 1-2" from 276/195 up to 80 (less N of 80) and 2-3" south of 276/196, which looks very much like the older 07Z NBM, below. I am kind of puzzled why they would simply go with the older NBM here instead of doing their own forecast, like they usually do.
Was chatting with Ray Martin (former NWS met and the guy with the awesome NJ snowstorm archive) and he said the NWS is simply using the NBM (model blend) as the basis for their forecast this morning and the updated forecast that just came out at 3 pm. One can see that the 07Z NBM in the quoted post, was used for the 10 am NWS map and that the 13Z NBM, also above was used for the 3 pm update, as they match up pretty closely. Anyway, clearly the 13Z NBM and the 3 pm NWS map are very similar and reflect the very light snowfall amounts expected of <1" for most with maybe 1-2" S of 276/195. Could very well be a non-event (<1/2") for most.
Still think that's kind of lazy instead of doing their own maps. I use the NBM as a tool usually prior to the NWS issuing snow maps (they usually start 48-72 hrs before an event), but once the NWS starts issuing them, I usually go with that to share. @bac2therac - this just goes to show that the NWS clearly uses the NBM even for their own maps, at times, and I have to say I don't love that, especially in this morning's case which was kind of misleading.
We wont get something substantial til the cold air leaves..our best storms are usual borderline temps or snow to rain events
The great cold pattern is very conducive to storm suppression
Was chatting with Ray Martin (former NWS met and the guy with the awesome NJ snowstorm archive) and he said the NWS is simply using the NBM (model blend) as the basis for their forecast this morning and the updated forecast that just came out at 3 pm. One can see that the 07Z NBM in the quoted post, was used for the 10 am NWS map and that the 13Z NBM, also above was used for the 3 pm update, as they match up pretty closely. Anyway, clearly the 13Z NBM and the 3 pm NWS map are very similar and reflect the very light snowfall amounts expected of <1" for most with maybe 1-2" S of 276/195. Could very well be a non-event (<1/2") for most.
Still think that's kind of lazy instead of doing their own maps. I use the NBM as a tool usually prior to the NWS issuing snow maps (they usually start 48-72 hrs before an event), but once the NWS starts issuing them, I usually go with that to share. @bac2therac - this just goes to show that the NWS clearly uses the NBM even for their own maps, at times, and I have to say I don't love that, especially in this morning's case which was kind of misleading.
The nbm is worthless 4-5 days out because it contains outliers and no one should be mentioning amounts beyond 4 days
Nbm will always be behind playing catchup to the current models clown maps
The nbm is fine now because the models are all in fairly close alignment
Disagree somewhat in that the NBM prior to having NWS snow maps is at least a decent averaging of the models (and no one model is more than 15% of the blend, so it's not like one outlier is going to dominate the output) and is certainly better than just going with one of the models, especially when there's a wide spread in outputs. It may not be great, but it at least gives some idea of what might be coming when the mets aren't issuing forecast snow amounts yet and the NWS uses the NBM input well, I think, in their discussions 3-5 days out to outline the possible outcomes.
Don't love the time-lagged element, though, as we've discussed and especially didn't like it this morning when the NWS used the 07Z NBM as the basis for their 10 am snow map, which was significantly higher than what all of the 0Z models last night and 6Z models this morning were showing when they issued a 10 am (15Z) snow map - IMO, they should've known better this morning.
https://www.weather.gov/news/200318-nbm32
Yes, the cold and stormy pattern delivered a major snowstorm for people who don't get many big snowstorms on 1/6 and is about to deliver a substantial snowstorm for the deep south, where they rarely get snowstorms. So the pattern is delivering snow, just not yet much to the NE. It happens. But these kinds of patterns, on average, deliver a much greater percentage of significant snowstorms for our area than any other winter patterns as I outlined in the first post in the thread. But as I said in that post a great pattern doesn't guarantee us any big storms, which is one caveat all the pattern experts have said.
The colder than normal blocking pattern continues though through at least 1/22 and possibly through the end of January and the CPC is predicting average to above average precip, so there will be more chances for snow. The next potential period for a decent storm begins in about 9-10 days, but if we don't get something pretty good by 1/25 we'll very likely have seen the cold verify, but not the snow. It happens.
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Philly 6 ABC just dismissed this storm as a nuisance with possible flurries and snow showers. A chance of sunshine and temps above 35
Time to discuss the Can Can sale for next week
Was chatting with Ray Martin (former NWS met and the guy with the awesome NJ snowstorm archive) and he said the NWS is simply using the NBM (model blend) as the basis for their forecast this morning and the updated forecast that just came out at 3 pm. One can see that the 07Z NBM in the quoted post, was used for the 10 am NWS map and that the 13Z NBM, also above was used for the 3 pm update, as they match up pretty closely. Anyway, clearly the 13Z NBM and the 3 pm NWS map are very similar and reflect the very light snowfall amounts expected of <1" for most with maybe 1-2" S of 276/195. Could very well be a non-event (<1/2") for most.
Still think that's kind of lazy instead of doing their own maps. I use the NBM as a tool usually prior to the NWS issuing snow maps (they usually start 48-72 hrs before an event), but once the NWS starts issuing them, I usually go with that to share. @bac2therac - this just goes to show that the NWS clearly uses the NBM even for their own maps, at times, and I have to say I don't love that, especially in this morning's case which was kind of misleading.
This one is close to over for the chance of more than 1" of snow, with almost the entire region now listed at <1" and most of the area is expected to get <1/2" and it's possible some areas will see nada. We're 42 hours out from the start of precip in the wee hours of Sat morning, so some minor to modest changes are still possible and a couple of models are still showing ~1" of snow (with up to 2" in spots) , so while 1-2" is unlikely it's still possible, just like a complete whiff is, but about 1/2" or so is looking most likely for most. That would be a non-event - for me 1" or more is where "minor" starts, especially when temps are cold and any snow would accumulate, which is the case with this event, where temps will be <32F through late morning.
