OT (Updated): The Saturday 1/11 Event Now Looking Like <1" with a Whiff Possible on the Low Side and 1-2" Possible on the High Side

[RU848789]

Well, the more limited 18Z suite has moved back towards less snow for our area with the Euro and ICON now just having <1" area-wide, although the GFS looked similar to 12Z with a 1-3/2-4" event for most, especially toward the coast; in addition the important GFS and Euro ensemble means also stepped back on snowfall, which is not a good sign. However, moves like this are relatively common this far out (we actually had a similar move towards less snowy at the exact same point - about 90 hrs out - for the 1/6 event).

Having said that, unless 0Z moves back towards 12Z, my guess is most will, rightly, back down a bit on snowfall forecasts/likelihood for our area based on 18Z and a perhaps similar to 18Z suite at 0Z tonight and we might then be in the same boat we were in for this past event for areas N of 276/195, i.e., snow lovers hoping for 1-2" of snow and <1" for everyone being a more probable outcome. We'll see in about 5 hours. It's never easy getting snow in these parts, but I still find the tracking part to be fascinating.

Note that there were not significant changes in modeled snowfall for the first part of the storm, i.e., from Texas through NC, as I expected and explained above, since the first part of the storm is 1+ day closer and less prone to sensitivity given the simpler setup for that.

Well, the Fat Lady is warming up, as the 0Z models all show <1" to even nada for our area in a somewhat unprecedented all-at-the-same-time implosion. At this point, it's looking like <1" of light snow is most likely with maybe an upside of 1-3", barring a Boxing Day Blizzard (2010) modeling miracle to get much more than that (extremely unlikely as the models are better now) and a downside of 0.0", which would not be a surprise at this point, with the only thing preventing a full on ship jumping being that we're still 84 hours from the start of the "event" and we've all seen modest to significant changes in the past inside 84 hours. But that's certainly not the way to bet. Shit happens, but when life gives you lemons, it's time to crack a joke or two. Here's what I posted on a couple of weather boards...

Euro dead! GFS dead! CMC dead! UK dead! ICON dead! JMA dead! That unpronounceable Russian model dead! Niedermeyer dead! But the end of the NAM showed promise and the HRRR at 48 showed good trends aloft, so are we gonna give up? Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No!

 

[Knight Shift]

Well, the Fat Lady is warming up, as the 0Z models all show <1" to even nada for our area in a somewhat unprecedented all-at-the-same-time implosion. At this point, it's looking like <1" of light snow is most likely with maybe an upside of 1-3", barring a Boxing Day Blizzard (2010) modeling miracle to get much more than that (extremely unlikely as the models are better now) and a downside of 0.0", which would not be a surprise at this point, with the only thing preventing a full on ship jumping being that we're still 84 hours from the start of the "event" and we've all seen modest to significant changes in the past inside 84 hours. But that's certainly not the way to bet. Shit happens, but when life gives you lemons, it's time to crack a joke or two. Here's what I posted on a couple of weather boards...

Euro dead! GFS dead! CMC dead! UK dead! ICON dead! JMA dead! That unpronounceable Russian model dead! Niedermeyer dead! But the end of the NAM showed promise and the HRRR at 48 showed good trends aloft, so are we gonna give up? Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No!

View embedded media

 

[RU848789]

you said

Having said that, unless 0Z moves back towards 12Z, my guess is most will, rightly, back down a bit on snowfall forecasts/likelihood for our area based on 18Z

So you think a "guess" is a forecast? C'mon, stop trying to pick nits.

 

[DHajekRC84]

You could just read the title or the first paragraph and get the same short message without wading through the rest, which I put up for those who are interested in the details.

Yes I'm speaking for myself as I am sure there are folks who love the details. I find the charts very helpful . Saves me the time to google them.
Guess when it comes to things this late in life I've become a cliff notes guy as I value almost every minute I have left lol. But it is the same for ANY post on this forum. I don't read the War & peace Novels/Blogs :)

 

[RULoyal]

Dan Zarrow

 

[bac2therac]

So you think a "guess" is a forecast? C'mon, stop trying to pick nits.

You literally said FORECASTS

 

[bac2therac]

Well, the Fat Lady is warming up, as the 0Z models all show <1" to even nada for our area in a somewhat unprecedented all-at-the-same-time implosion. At this point, it's looking like <1" of light snow is most likely with maybe an upside of 1-3", barring a Boxing Day Blizzard (2010) modeling miracle to get much more than that (extremely unlikely as the models are better now) and a downside of 0.0", which would not be a surprise at this point, with the only thing preventing a full on ship jumping being that we're still 84 hours from the start of the "event" and we've all seen modest to significant changes in the past inside 84 hours. But that's certainly not the way to bet. Shit happens, but when life gives you lemons, it's time to crack a joke or two. Here's what I posted on a couple of weather boards...

Euro dead! GFS dead! CMC dead! UK dead! ICON dead! JMA dead! That unpronounceable Russian model dead! Niedermeyer dead! But the end of the NAM showed promise and the HRRR at 48 showed good trends aloft, so are we gonna give up? Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No!

View embedded media

Hardly a model implosion. This never was an event beyond we wild gfs run runs a week out. Most models showed under 2 and some nonr. The outlier was the GFS consistently flopping line a fish. Another reason the NBM is misleading

That said 72 hours away we still could have movements that have this a 1-2 inch event

 

[RU848789]

Well, the Fat Lady is warming up, as the 0Z models all show <1" to even nada for our area in a somewhat unprecedented all-at-the-same-time implosion. At this point, it's looking like <1" of light snow is most likely with maybe an upside of 1-3", barring a Boxing Day Blizzard (2010) modeling miracle to get much more than that (extremely unlikely as the models are better now) and a downside of 0.0", which would not be a surprise at this point, with the only thing preventing a full on ship jumping being that we're still 84 hours from the start of the "event" and we've all seen modest to significant changes in the past inside 84 hours. But that's certainly not the way to bet. Shit happens, but when life gives you lemons, it's time to crack a joke or two. Here's what I posted on a couple of weather boards...

Euro dead! GFS dead! CMC dead! UK dead! ICON dead! JMA dead! That unpronounceable Russian model dead! Niedermeyer dead! But the end of the NAM showed promise and the HRRR at 48 showed good trends aloft, so are we gonna give up? Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No!

View embedded media

The 6Z models came in a bit snowier for the most part with most showing 1" generally with some spots <1" and some up to 2" (Euro, GFS, NAM, SREF and the GFS/Euro ensemble means), but there are a couple that give <1/2" with nada in spots (RGEM, ICON); the UK/CMC don't run out far enough at 6Z.

While the evolution of this storm system is completely different from the 1/6 event, as this one is a Miller A type that crosses the southern tier near the Gulf of Mexico and then comes up the coast to some extent and 1/6 was a southwest flow event from a storm crossing the midsection of the US (right along I-70) all the way to the coast, the outcomes are looking quite similar at least for areas N of 276/195 where around 1" for most to 2" in spots and <1" in spots fell on 1/6 and that's what we're seeing for this event from most of the 6Z models. The big difference is this event is showing the 1" amounts for everyone in our region including south of 276/195 down through DC to Cape May vs. the big snows seen for southern areas on 1/6.

Note that the models are still consistently showing a significant snowfall (2-6") for large parts of NE TX, SE OK through most of TN/KY/WV and western NC/VA, as well as the northern parts of MS/AL/GA/SC and that isn't expected to change too much.

The NWS-Philly also sees a minor to possibly non-event with maybe an inch give or take a bit and possibly up to 2" especially towards coastal/SE NJ/DE, but has no official forecast yet; below is their discussion from this morning.

From there, the main focus shifts to the potential for a little
wintry weather Friday night into Saturday. Guidance has
congealed more closely around the weak/southern low track with
only a bit of light snow affecting our region. Most models do
show some light precip across the region, associated more with
the northern piece of energy than the coastal low, but either
way, did include likely pops for snow later Friday night into
Saturday morning. However, accumulations at best look like an
inch or two, so possibly a low-end advisory event across our
southeastern zones of NJ and DE. Elsewhere, likely an
essentially non-event. After lows in the 20s Friday night, highs
return to the 30s for Saturday as the clouds break for some sun
later in the day.

 

[RocktheRac]

Hardly a model implosion. This never was an event beyond we wild gfs run runs a week out. Most models showed under 2 and some nonr. The outlier was the GFS consistently flopping line a fish. Another reason the NBM is misleading

That said 72 hours away we still could have movements that have this a 1-2 inch event

Correct. This was never an event besides that ridiculous model showing 30 inches. After that it was all downhill.

 

[bac2therac]

The 6Z models came in a bit snowier for the most part with most showing 1" or soent with some spots <1" and some up to 2" (Euro, GFS, NAM, SREF and the GFS/Euro ensemble means), but there are a couple that give <1/2" with nada in spots (RGEM, ICON); the UK/CMC don't run out far enough at 6Z.

While the evolution of this storm system is completely different from the 1/6 event, as this one is a Miller A type that crosses the southern tier near the Gulf of Mexico and then comes up the coast to some extent and 1/6 was a southwest flow event from a storm crossing the midsection of the US (right along I-70) all the way to the coast, the outcomes are looking quite similar at least for areas N of 276/195 where around 1" for most to 2" in spots and <1" in spots fell on 1/6 and that's what we're seeing for this event from most of the 6Z models. The big difference is this event is showing the 1" amounts for everyone in our region including south of 276/195 down through DC to Cape May vs. the big snows seen for southern areas on 1/6.

Note that the models are still consistently showing a significant snowfall (2-6") for large parts of NE TX, SE OK through most of TN/KY/WV and western NC/VA, as well as the northern parts of MS/AL/GA/SC and that isn't expected to change too much.

Honestly im expecting another 0-2 inch type event like I FORECASTED last time

 

[RU848789]

You literally said FORECASTS

You really do struggle with reading comprehension. I said, "Having said that, unless 0Z moves back towards 12Z, my guess is most will, rightly, back down a bit on snowfall forecasts/likelihood for our area based on 18Z." In that sentence I'm referring to forecasts from other people (plenty of folks were putting out preliminary forecasts) and what some model forecasts were. This thread was never a "forecast" from me, but was my effort to share the range of possibilities with a minor to moderate event looking most likely (and a whiff/major storm looking less likely). I don't make forecasts generally speaking, as my understanding of synoptic meteorology isn't good enough for that, as I've said hundreds of times.

 

[RU848789]

Hardly a model implosion. This never was an event beyond we wild gfs run runs a week out. Most models showed under 2 and some nonr. The outlier was the GFS consistently flopping line a fish. Another reason the NBM is misleading

That said 72 hours away we still could have movements that have this a 1-2 inch event

The GFS and Euro both occasionally showed major storms up through about Sunday, but had backed off on that by Monday afternoon when I started the thread and said a major storm was unlikely. But the Euro, GFS, ICON, NBM and the Euro/GFS/CMC ensemble means (not just the GFS ensemble mean) were all showing a 1-2 to maybe 2-4" event, while the UK/CMC were showing little to no snow, which is why I said a minor (1-2") to moderate (2-4") was looking possible, but that a whiff was also possible, but less likely. I think that was a pretty accurate representation of reality at the time and to go from that to every model showing <1" 12 hours later was an implosion. That's my opinion.

And we agree that this could still be a 1-2" event, especially given that the 6Z models mostly are showing around 1" now, give or take some, so 1-2" wouldn't be much of a stretch - but little to no snow is quite possible still.

 

[bac2therac]

You really do struggle with reading comprehension. I said, "Having said that, unless 0Z moves back towards 12Z, my guess is most will, rightly, back down a bit on snowfall forecasts/likelihood for our area based on 18Z." In that sentence I'm referring to forecasts from other people (plenty of folks were putting out preliminary forecasts) and what some model forecasts were. This thread was never a "forecast" from me, but was my effort to share the range of possibilities with a minor to moderate event looking most likely (and a whiff/major storm looking less likely). I don't make forecasts generally speaking, as my understanding of synoptic meteorology isn't good enough for that, as I've said hundreds of times.

No one was really putting out forecasted amounts 4 days away given the wild runs previously. Scenarios yes..

 

[RU848789]

Honestly im expecting another 0-2 inch type event like I FORECASTED last time

You don't FORECAST and neither do I. A forecast involves analyzing the synoptics of a coming event, especially the upper air patterns and evolution and how those translate to surface outcomes over time, aided by model output. We look at models and what some professionals who actually forecast and then share some possibilities of what might happen, but we don't do the synoptics part at all or not much.

While I have some understanding of synoptics, as the fundamental physics, mass/heat/momentum transport and physical chemistry are in my wheelhouse from my education as a chemical engineer, there's no way I could make a "forecast" without model input and neither could you; good mets can still do that, although not as well as they can aided by models.

 

[bac2therac]

You don't FORECAST and neither do I. A forecast involves analyzing the synoptics of a coming event, especially the upper air patterns and evolution and how those translate to surface outcomes over time, aided by model output. We look at models and what some professionals who actually forecast and then share some possibilities of what might happen, but we don't do the synoptics part at all or not much.

While I have some understanding of synoptics, as the fundamental physics, mass/heat/momentum transport and physical chemistry are in my wheelhouse from my education as a chemical engineer, there's no way I could make a "forecast" without model input and neither could you; good mets can still do that, although not as well as they can aided by models.

You dont tell me what I do...if I say I forecast...I FORECAST....capiche!

Let me speak my truth to power

 

[RU848789]

You dont tell me what I do...if I say I forecast...I FORECAST....capiche!

Let me speak my truth to power

lol, ok now you're a meteorologist. Would love to see you post that on the weather boards and get laughed off them again.

 

[rurichdog]

Synoptically speaking, there isn't much to pull this system north, hence these annoying Southern Scooters...f you, Delmarva!

The trough in the SWUS is almost cutoff at 300mb, and the upper air is almost zonal in the eastern half of the country. Those are your steering patterns.

 

[bac2therac]

lol, ok now you're a meteorologist. Would love to see you post that on the weather boards and get laughed off them again.

This isnt a weather board. I can say the same about what happened to you on a certain board

 

[RocktheRac]

This isnt a weather board. I can say the same about what happened to you on a certain board

Do tell. But wait till I grab some popcorn.

 

[Knight Shift]

How funny would it be for the storm to deliver 8-12 inches of snow after #s went conservative. What would the mean girls say?

 

[DJ Spanky]

How funny would it be for the storm to deliver 8-12 inches of snow after #s went conservative. What would the mean girls say?

I don't know about them, but the MILF's at the Hillsborough Deli would be very happy.

 

[RutgersK1d]

I think we need to have separate threads for these storms so there’s no in-fighting.

 

[bac2therac]

How funny would it be for the storm to deliver 8-12 inches of snow after #s went conservative. What would the mean girls say?

they would say he was a grower not a shower

 

[Knight Shift]

they would say he was a grower not a shower

Maybe you all beat him into submission to lowering his estimates. Maybe he has a plan?
This is all in good fun, and @RU848789 is a good sport for all the crap he takes. I enjoy the interplay of you two, but some of the others, I don't even see.

 

[UMRU]

Maybe you all beat him into submission to lowering his estimates. Maybe he has a plan?
This is all in good fun, and @RU848789 is a good sport for all the crap he takes. I enjoy the interplay of you two, but some of the others, I don't even see.

Being right about the weather is one of weirdest flexes on this board (out of many).

 

[RUPete]

How funny would it be for the storm to deliver 8-12 inches of snow after #s went conservative. What would the mean girls say?

Could happen. As mentioned before, it happened with the Boxing Day storm in 2010. That was a problem because the forecast shifted abruptly on December 23 or December 24. People were already focused on Christmas and were not paying as much attention as they should have.

 

[Knight Shift]

Could happen. As mentioned before, it happened with the Boxing Day storm in 2010. That was a problem because the forecast shifted abruptly on December 23 or December 24. People were already focused on Christmas and were not paying as much attention as they should have.

Boxing Day is so appropriate for these weather threads. 🥊🥊

 

[RU848789]

Maybe you all beat him into submission to lowering his estimates. Maybe he has a plan?
This is all in good fun, and @RU848789 is a good sport for all the crap he takes. I enjoy the interplay of you two, but some of the others, I don't even see.

Nope, just post about what I can glean from the models/mets. I obviously love snow, but try hard to not let that influence my posts about what's likely to happen. I generally have no issue arguing with bac about the storm other than the silly nitpicking; the others are just trolls and will likely be out in force soon, lol.

 

[bac2therac]

Its time for a TK Tango update

 

[RU848789]

Could happen. As mentioned before, it happened with the Boxing Day storm in 2010. That was a problem because the forecast shifted abruptly on December 23 or December 24. People were already focused on Christmas and were not paying as much attention as they should have.

The models all shifted hugely between 12Z on 12/24 and 0Z on 12/25 - by about 11 pm Christmas Eve the first couple of models had come out showing a huge blizzard and by 1 am Christmas morning the Euro came out also showing a bomb. There had been occasional big runs before then, but the consensus by 12/24 was for an inch or two of snow for our area. Below is what I posted here at 6:30 am on Christmas Eve (from my email; this site doesn't go back that far). But unlike the current situation, in 2010 there were at least occasional model runs 2-4 days out showing a significant to major snowstorm (including the Euro), so the potential was still there. Not now, really.

"Unfortunately, for us snow lovers, it's almost time to stick a fork in this one, as the model consensus has shifted towards an "out-to-sea" solution, i.e., the storm will be tracking further S/E than originally predicted by most (but not all) of the models the other day, which means little to no snow accumulation is likely for the DC to NYC corridor on Sunday into Monday.

There is still a decent chance of accumulating snows (from an inch or two to perhaps 3-6" in the easternmost sections) from NYC on eastward into LI and southeast New England, but it's looking like at most an inch or two from NYC on westward."

And after the huge model shift, here's what Craig Allen, another well respected pro on TV/radio in NYC posted:

"Good data or bad, garbage in/garbage out, wish for what you do or do not want, no matter what has been said before, from feast to famine to feast....the most amazing thing has happened tonight. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL IS NOW IN LINE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM/PSBL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT. NEVER IN 35+ YEARS OF DOING THIS HAVE I SEEN SUCH CHAOS LEADING UP TO A SOLUTION LIKE THIS."

 

[WhiteBus]

I don't know about them, but the MILF's at the Hillsborough Deli would be very happy.

And that's all the matters. If they're happy we all are happy 😁

 

[T2Kplus20]

You dont tell me what I do...if I say I forecast...I FORECAST....capiche!

Let me speak my truth to power

He’s trying to take away your agency. The brute! :)

 

[RU848789]

Synoptically speaking, there isn't much to pull this system north, hence these annoying Southern Scooters...f you, Delmarva!

The trough in the SWUS is almost cutoff at 300mb, and the upper air is almost zonal in the eastern half of the country. Those are your steering patterns.

Yep, the phase with the northern stream simply happens too late for the storm to be pulled north and for it to explode, as one can see below when the storm finally blows up well off the coast. The model runs show (most look similar to the 12Z NAM evolution below) what looks to be a nice juicy Miller A meandering along the Gulf Coast bringing decent precip/snow to the north of the low (3-6" even well to the north) and then taking a track towards the OBX making one think we're going to get hammered, but then the storm's precip field basically just falls apart and goes out to sea, instead of coming up the coast as a nor'easter. It happens.

 

[retired711]

They're trying to have a little fun with the morons who run with the snow maps and point out how absurd it is to do that.

That's probably true, but sarcasm often doesn't come across well in print and so there will be people buying every gallon of milk available because "the National Weather Service says there might be 40 inches!"

 

[knightfan7]

That's probably true, but sarcasm often doesn't come across well in print and so there will be people buying every gallon of milk available because "the National Weather Service says there might be 40 inches!"

Wait! 40" not happening?

Crap. Anyone want some milk, bread, and eggs cheap?

 

[DJ Spanky]

Wait! 40" not happening?

Crap. Anyone want some milk, bread, and eggs cheap?

Well you could set up a french toast stand in front of your house and call it a "No Snowstorm Sale! Everything Must Go!"

 

[bac2therac]

He’s trying to take away your agency. The brute! :)

i am speaking...i am speaking..i am speaking

 

[Sweet Peas Corner]

Check please

 

[NickRU714]

Baseball training starts Saturday and Sunday.
Snow can be finished for the year.
Thank you very much.

 

[RU848789]

The 6Z models came in a bit snowier for the most part with most showing 1" generally with some spots <1" and some up to 2" (Euro, GFS, NAM, SREF and the GFS/Euro ensemble means), but there are a couple that give <1/2" with nada in spots (RGEM, ICON); the UK/CMC don't run out far enough at 6Z.

While the evolution of this storm system is completely different from the 1/6 event, as this one is a Miller A type that crosses the southern tier near the Gulf of Mexico and then comes up the coast to some extent and 1/6 was a southwest flow event from a storm crossing the midsection of the US (right along I-70) all the way to the coast, the outcomes are looking quite similar at least for areas N of 276/195 where around 1" for most to 2" in spots and <1" in spots fell on 1/6 and that's what we're seeing for this event from most of the 6Z models. The big difference is this event is showing the 1" amounts for everyone in our region including south of 276/195 down through DC to Cape May vs. the big snows seen for southern areas on 1/6.

Note that the models are still consistently showing a significant snowfall (2-6") for large parts of NE TX, SE OK through most of TN/KY/WV and western NC/VA, as well as the northern parts of MS/AL/GA/SC and that isn't expected to change too much.

The NWS-Philly also sees a minor to possibly non-event with maybe an inch give or take a bit and possibly up to 2" especially towards coastal/SE NJ/DE, but has no official forecast yet; below is their discussion from this morning.

From there, the main focus shifts to the potential for a little
wintry weather Friday night into Saturday. Guidance has
congealed more closely around the weak/southern low track with
only a bit of light snow affecting our region. Most models do
show some light precip across the region, associated more with
the northern piece of energy than the coastal low, but either
way, did include likely pops for snow later Friday night into
Saturday morning. However, accumulations at best look like an
inch or two, so possibly a low-end advisory event across our
southeastern zones of NJ and DE. Elsewhere, likely an
essentially non-event. After lows in the 20s Friday night, highs
return to the 30s for Saturday as the clouds break for some sun
later in the day.

The 12Z models seemed similar to the 6Z models with some having <1" (and near zero for many locations) and some having 1" or so with a few spots to 1.5-2.0", especially SE of 95 towards the coast, so maybe an overall average of 1" just based on models and that's kind of what the 13Z NBM (model blend) is showing, below. However, the NWS put out a snowfall map around 10 am which, surprisingly, has roughly 1-2" from 276/195 up to 80 (less N of 80) and 2-3" south of 276/196, which looks very much like the older 07Z NBM, below. I am kind of puzzled why they would simply go with the older NBM here instead of doing their own forecast, like they usually do.