Numbers has had weather threads on one inchers for the area so surprised nothing from on Wednesday which as I said earlier in the thread trending more wet than white
looks like snow for many at start and then change to wintry mix an then much of this plain rain, the usual suspect to the north and west will hold on longer..the devil will be in the details...alot of models do hold precip start time til after midnight or later as RU will be hosting Illinois at the RAC Wednesday but timeline not set in stone. Also not set in stone is how long the icing occurs
For Wednesday night into Thursday, attention remains on the low
pressure system that is set to affect the area as low pressure
tracks out of the Midwest across the Mid-Atlantic and up into New
England. Guidance has continued to depict a slower onset of
precipitation, so it does appear likely that precipitation will hold
off until at the earliest late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday
evening across the region. It is important to note with this
specific system, is there will be an antecedent high located to our
northeast on Wednesday night, so there should be sufficient amount
of cold air especially at low levels that would support a cold air
damming set-up. Point forecast soundings support this quite well as
a pronounced warm nose will surge northward through the overnight
hours into Thursday morning as low pressure approaches. This would
certainly lead to quite a mixed bag of precipitation across the
region including both sleet and freezing rain.
For now, general consensus is that most locations should start off
with a period of light snow as temperatures will be below/around
freezing early Wednesday evening. However, as the warm nose aloft
progresses northward overnight, a change over to sleet and freezing
rain is expected from south to north at the surface. By Thursday
morning, most places should be changing over to rain as surface
temperatures rise above freezing, with the exception the Pocono
Plateau and northern New Jersey which will hold onto wintry precip a
bit longer. By Thursday afternoon, temperatures should rise well
into the 40s/50s as a strong surge of warm air advection occurs, so
plain rain will be anticipated by then. The timing and specifics of
the changeover are less certain though, but greatest confidence with
the prolonged duration of wintry p-types lies over our northern
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey counties.
In terms of amounts, the current forecast calls for 0.50-0.75" of
liquid QPF. Breaking this down into snow/sleet totals, anticipate
generally a C-1" for much of the region, with localized areas of 1-
2" across the Pocono Plateau and higher terrain of northern New
Jersey. The more concerning aspect to the forecast is with respect
to freezing rain totals...where up to 0.1-0.2" of ice accretion is
expected northwest of the I-95 corridor where surface cold air is
likely to persist longer. For the I-95 corridor itself, including
the northern portions of the Delmarva and the remainder of New
Jersey, anticipate up to 0.1" of ice. Negligible ice accretion is
expected over southern Delaware. Considering this, Winter Weather
headlines will likely be needed within the next 24-48 hours.
looks like snow for many at start and then change to wintry mix an then much of this plain rain, the usual suspect to the north and west will hold on longer..the devil will be in the details...alot of models do hold precip start time til after midnight or later as RU will be hosting Illinois at the RAC Wednesday but timeline not set in stone. Also not set in stone is how long the icing occurs
For Wednesday night into Thursday, attention remains on the low
pressure system that is set to affect the area as low pressure
tracks out of the Midwest across the Mid-Atlantic and up into New
England. Guidance has continued to depict a slower onset of
precipitation, so it does appear likely that precipitation will hold
off until at the earliest late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday
evening across the region. It is important to note with this
specific system, is there will be an antecedent high located to our
northeast on Wednesday night, so there should be sufficient amount
of cold air especially at low levels that would support a cold air
damming set-up. Point forecast soundings support this quite well as
a pronounced warm nose will surge northward through the overnight
hours into Thursday morning as low pressure approaches. This would
certainly lead to quite a mixed bag of precipitation across the
region including both sleet and freezing rain.
For now, general consensus is that most locations should start off
with a period of light snow as temperatures will be below/around
freezing early Wednesday evening. However, as the warm nose aloft
progresses northward overnight, a change over to sleet and freezing
rain is expected from south to north at the surface. By Thursday
morning, most places should be changing over to rain as surface
temperatures rise above freezing, with the exception the Pocono
Plateau and northern New Jersey which will hold onto wintry precip a
bit longer. By Thursday afternoon, temperatures should rise well
into the 40s/50s as a strong surge of warm air advection occurs, so
plain rain will be anticipated by then. The timing and specifics of
the changeover are less certain though, but greatest confidence with
the prolonged duration of wintry p-types lies over our northern
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey counties.
In terms of amounts, the current forecast calls for 0.50-0.75" of
liquid QPF. Breaking this down into snow/sleet totals, anticipate
generally a C-1" for much of the region, with localized areas of 1-
2" across the Pocono Plateau and higher terrain of northern New
Jersey. The more concerning aspect to the forecast is with respect
to freezing rain totals...where up to 0.1-0.2" of ice accretion is
expected northwest of the I-95 corridor where surface cold air is
likely to persist longer. For the I-95 corridor itself, including
the northern portions of the Delmarva and the remainder of New
Jersey, anticipate up to 0.1" of ice. Negligible ice accretion is
expected over southern Delaware. Considering this, Winter Weather
headlines will likely be needed within the next 24-48 hours.
