OT: Cold and Potentially Snowy Pattern Likely for Most of January
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This run of the euro this afternoon would be depressing for snow lovers. Big empty snow hole right over the metro
Just finished cleaning up from our annual NYE party with about 25-30 friends, although we missed @mildone for the first time in many years, due to his back acting up. Some good food/beer/wine/drinks, lots of laughs, some dancing and drunken stupidity, even for AARP folks, and people liked the 6-hour playlist I put together for the evening. Hope everyone had a fun night and good luck for a great 2025.
Anyway, after catching up, the 1/6 event is coming into a bit better view, but variability among the models is still high as we're still 5-6 days out from tonight's model runs. Some models are showing little to no snow for CNJ, some a few inches and 1-2 a bit more, which is why the NBM (model blend) is probably the best way to go for now and it shows a general 1-3" for most of the area, with only a gentle gradient from 1-2" N of 80 to 3-4" for DC/Balt/far SNJ, as the precip/snow for this likely SWFE (southwest flow event approaching from the west and sending moisture on SW winds into a dome of cold air in place, producing snow) will likely be more as one heads S/SW. There are models showing 6-10" for VA/MD/DE but maybe only a few inches or less N of 276/195 and even less N of 80. But given that the energy for this storm is way out in the poorly sampled Pacific and we have a long way to go, much can still change. Might be thread worthy tomorrow or Thursday, IMO.
And while the snow for our area for 1/6 is iffy, one thing that is not iffy is the coming cold. It's quite possible that tomorrow is the last day above 40F for 3-4 weeks with many days not getting out of the 20s for highs and many nights in the teens, with single digits possible (and there could be some really brutal cold days in there too). The pattern also shows a number of shortwave systems rotating through the eastern US, with snow/precip possible in more than one of them, with the next chance being in the 1/10-1/11 timeframe, which is still 10-11 days out and the Euro/GFS have flip flopped a bunch on this, as expected; the ensembles show a signal for at least a few inches of snowfall for that period.
Anyway, after catching up, the 1/6 event is coming into a bit better view, but variability among the models is still high as we're still 5-6 days out from tonight's model runs. Some models are showing little to no snow for CNJ, some a few inches and 1-2 a bit more, which is why the NBM (model blend) is probably the best way to go for now and it shows a general 1-3" for most of the area, with only a gentle gradient from 1-2" N of 80 to 3-4" for DC/Balt/far SNJ, as the precip/snow for this likely SWFE (southwest flow event approaching from the west and sending moisture on SW winds into a dome of cold air in place, producing snow) will likely be more as one heads S/SW. There are models showing 6-10" for VA/MD/DE but maybe only a few inches or less N of 276/195 and even less N of 80. But given that the energy for this storm is way out in the poorly sampled Pacific and we have a long way to go, much can still change. Might be thread worthy tomorrow or Thursday, IMO.
And while the snow for our area for 1/6 is iffy, one thing that is not iffy is the coming cold. It's quite possible that tomorrow is the last day above 40F for 3-4 weeks with many days not getting out of the 20s for highs and many nights in the teens, with single digits possible (and there could be some really brutal cold days in there too). The pattern also shows a number of shortwave systems rotating through the eastern US, with snow/precip possible in more than one of them, with the next chance being in the 1/10-1/11 timeframe, which is still 10-11 days out and the Euro/GFS have flip flopped a bunch on this, as expected; the ensembles show a signal for at least a few inches of snowfall for that period.
Snow hole 🤣This run of the euro this afternoon would be depressing for snow lovers. Big empty snow hole right over the metro
Perhaps the most interesting thing in the long range is that the GFS has been showing some version of a SE US snowstorm for several runs in a row around 1/11 (the storm some have been thinking could be big for us, but models aren't showing that now; the Euro/CMC are not showing this SE storm), including today's run showing an historic snowstorm for much of TX/LA/AL/MS/GA/SC/NC. Always possible, but very unlikely - I'm sure that map will be posted all over the internet soon.
Please keep posting them, they are definitely a value to the board. You should also try to take advantage of that feature I showed you where you can accordion parts of your post in order to display a brief synopsis with a deeper explanation in the hidden section.
Probably better to have Bac or Tango post weather threads. It's best to avoid wishcasting so we can keep the content serious and focused.
I did the same if not they’d be up for another 4-6 weeks. It was windy but at least sunny and bearable
Well, the 18Z Euro just came in with a much further north solution for the 1/6 event, bringing a general 3-5" snowfall for areas between 276/195 and 80 (lower amounts near 80/higher amounts near 276/195) and 5-8" south of 276/195; the GFS only made a small move north with <1" for this area. The rest of the models are between those extremes, but the NBM (model blend) did spike up a bit, probably based on the Euro and Euro ensembles weightings, as per the map below.Just finished cleaning up from our annual NYE party with about 25-30 friends, although we missed @mildone for the first time in many years, due to his back acting up. Some good food/beer/wine/drinks, lots of laughs, some dancing and drunken stupidity, even for AARP folks, and people liked the 6-hour playlist I put together for the evening. Hope everyone had a fun night and good luck for a great 2025.
Anyway, after catching up, the 1/6 event is coming into a bit better view, but variability among the models is still high as we're still 5-6 days out from tonight's model runs. Some models are showing little to no snow for CNJ, some a few inches and 1-2 a bit more, which is why the NBM (model blend) is probably the best way to go for now and it shows a general 1-3" for most of the area, with only a gentle gradient from 1-2" N of 80 to 3-4" for DC/Balt/far SNJ, as the precip/snow for this likely SWFE (southwest flow event approaching from the west and sending moisture on SW winds into a dome of cold air in place, producing snow) will likely be more as one heads S/SW. There are models showing 6-10" for VA/MD/DE but maybe only a few inches or less N of 276/195 and even less N of 80. But given that the energy for this storm is way out in the poorly sampled Pacific and we have a long way to go, much can still change. Might be thread worthy tomorrow or Thursday, IMO.
And while the snow for our area for 1/6 is iffy, one thing that is not iffy is the coming cold. It's quite possible that tomorrow is the last day above 40F for 3-4 weeks with many days not getting out of the 20s for highs and many nights in the teens, with single digits possible (and there could be some really brutal cold days in there too). The pattern also shows a number of shortwave systems rotating through the eastern US, with snow/precip possible in more than one of them, with the next chance being in the 1/10-1/11 timeframe, which is still 10-11 days out and the Euro/GFS have flip flopped a bunch on this, as expected; the ensembles show a signal for at least a few inches of snowfall for that period.
If we see more consensus towards a decent snowfall in tonight's 0Z model runs, it'll be time for a thread, as we'll be just about 4 days out. One other factor to consider is that temps should be in the 20s throughout the event (wee hours of Monday through Mon afternoon), so any snow that falls should accumulate easily, meaning impacts, especially on the morning rush hour on a Monday after a holiday week for many, could be significant if we get more than 1-2" (and even 1-2" would have some impact).
Exhibit #877 on why putting any stock in Op models beyond 6-7 days is fruitless, as the 18Z GFS comes back to reality for SE US snow vs. 12Z (showing <1" for most in the SE in the vs. 6-12"+ for a huge swath of the SE at 12Z, which is the model I mentioned above). It's also why ensembles are the way to go that far out, as the 12Z GFS ensemble mean showed <1" of snow, meaning the 12Z GFS Ops was an outlier solution given that probably every other ensemble member had little to no snow. While the ~10 day Op runs of the Euro/GFS for the 1/10-11 window haven't looked snowy for our area the past few Op runs, we're still ridiculously far out, so let's see how it plays out.
With snow likely over by early afternoon (assuming it materializes) one would think most roads/lots would be cleared by tip-off. Can't imagine not being there.
Thanks #s
When is this storm supposed to begin / end?
And when the peak snow/bad weather will be
Ummm some if us have to remove it so I can imagine not being there we now RU in the past have been slow at removing snow/ spreading salt . And school is out so it will be slower.
Still pretty big uncertainty on if we get <1" or 1-2" or 3-5" in CNJ (what's your location?), but whatever we do get is likely to start in the wee hours of Monday morning (12-2 am?) and could go into the early afternoon if we're on the snowier side of things. Biggest risk looks to be to rush hour Monday am, at this time, but it's still possible for the precip timeframe to shift 4-8 hours, as we're still 4+ days out.
the models cannot even agree on whether the storm will even come this far north and you already have the lots cleared....bahahahahaha
Now he’s dropping intel on his parties lol. Soooo thirsty. And embarrassing.Just finished cleaning up from our annual NYE party with about 25-30 friends, although we missed @mildone for the first time in many years, due to his back acting up. Some good food/beer/wine/drinks, lots of laughs, some dancing and drunken stupidity, even for AARP folks, and people liked the 6-hour playlist I put together for the evening. Hope everyone had a fun night and good luck for a great 2025.
Anyway, after catching up, the 1/6 event is coming into a bit better view, but variability among the models is still high as we're still 5-6 days out from tonight's model runs. Some models are showing little to no snow for CNJ, some a few inches and 1-2 a bit more, which is why the NBM (model blend) is probably the best way to go for now and it shows a general 1-3" for most of the area, with only a gentle gradient from 1-2" N of 80 to 3-4" for DC/Balt/far SNJ, as the precip/snow for this likely SWFE (southwest flow event approaching from the west and sending moisture on SW winds into a dome of cold air in place, producing snow) will likely be more as one heads S/SW. There are models showing 6-10" for VA/MD/DE but maybe only a few inches or less N of 276/195 and even less N of 80. But given that the energy for this storm is way out in the poorly sampled Pacific and we have a long way to go, much can still change. Might be thread worthy tomorrow or Thursday, IMO.
And while the snow for our area for 1/6 is iffy, one thing that is not iffy is the coming cold. It's quite possible that tomorrow is the last day above 40F for 3-4 weeks with many days not getting out of the 20s for highs and many nights in the teens, with single digits possible (and there could be some really brutal cold days in there too). The pattern also shows a number of shortwave systems rotating through the eastern US, with snow/precip possible in more than one of them, with the next chance being in the 1/10-1/11 timeframe, which is still 10-11 days out and the Euro/GFS have flip flopped a bunch on this, as expected; the ensembles show a signal for at least a few inches of snowfall for that period.
Please, I was obviously busting your brother's chops, since I've mentioned the great uncertainty, still, and the potential timeframe shift both of which will greatly influence when lots would be cleared. Having said that, all of the 0Z models, so far, have trended northward with more snow, making a few inches looking more likely for CNJ and the larger area; Euro up next.
Thanks for the positive feedback. My guess is I'll try to use that "accordion" feature for very long NWS discussions or for the long posts of snowfall reports, but I don't think I like it for posts with useful graphics and longer write-ups by me, as I like being able to see all of that info without clicking on it.
you are much more bullish that nws mt holly
Guidance from a synoptic standpoint is depicting a Miller B
nor`easter to develop with an upper level trough swinging a
surface low from west to east across the KY/TN area before
redeveloping as a low pressure system offshore Monday. Ensemble
guidance is split into 2 different clusters with the variance
generally explained by how strong the upper level ridge will be
over Quebec. This boils down into two scenarios, one with a more
northern track bringing snow towards the RDG/TTN/PHL, and one
with a more southern track keeping the snow more over the DC
area. The more northern stream track relies on a weaker high and
thus develops a bit more cyclogensis over our region thus
lifting the band of 2-4 inches of snow further north, whereas in
the southern track, the high is stronger and displaces the
surface low to the south more leading to most of the area seeing
little in the way of snow.
01Z/02 NBM generally is taking a blend of the two scenarios thus
leads to probabilities similar to the 13z/01 NBM with snowfall
greater than 1 inch is 60 to 80 percent across southern New
Jersey, the Delaware Valley including Philadelphia, and the
eastern shores of Maryland and Delaware while the probability of
snowfall greater than 3 inches is 40 to 50 percent. North of
Philadelphia, probabilities lower to 30 to 50 percent for
greater than 1 inch of snow and 20 to 30 percent for greater
than 3 inches of snow.
For the time behind will continue to show a blend of the two
tracks but anticipate that the gradient of snowfall will sharpen
quickly somewhere north of Philadelphia over the coming runs
depending on how guidance handles the upper level ridge. While
it is still too soon to tell how much snow will fall, the trend
looks to be for advisory level snowfall for Delmarva, sub-
advisory amounts for southeast New Jersey and the Delaware
Valley, and minimal amounts north of Philadelphia.
always appreciate the info Numbers! So reading this, Mercer is going to get 3-5” or so as we stand?
wow...no amounts should be expected...are you even reading the mt holly disco....no one knows yet...it can be a whiff or a few inches
Already posted about all of that in detail in the event thread. Try to keep up.
Thanks!! Too early to forecast that yet, although the model trends last night, this morning and just now at 12Z are looking good for at least a few inches for Mercer with the potential for 3-5". There's a new thread for this event, too...
and potential for nothing too interesting you leave that out
Because the potential for nothing for Mercer is very low at this point, as no model shows <2" for Trenton (with the average in the 3-4" range). Can't say it's impossible, but very unlikely.
Yes I read it all. Thanks for being difficult as usual. I just like to know what the possibilities could be. If something was 100% we wouldn’t need threads right?
Mt holly seems to think otherwise...i know its their morning disco but you hugging models this far out and dismissing the potential for dry air and the high to the north to eat at those clown maps is an odd flex
Gorse also warned you about using the nbm
While
it is still too soon to tell how much snow will fall, the trend
looks to be for advisory level snowfall for Delmarva, sub-
advisory amounts for southeast New Jersey and the Delaware
Valley, and minimal amounts north of Philadelphia.
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so why are you saying Mercer is getting 3-5 inches as if ANYONE is forecasting ANY amounts at this time
as usual almost 4 days out is way too early to call given how the models will change a dozen times over the next 48 hours
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And as I predicted, the NWS, after seeing the model trend north sustained, greatly increased their snowfall amounts as per the post I made around 5 pm in the event thread. Very often my predictions of what they're going to do verify, like this one. Of course it's not over yet and significant changes in either direction are still possible, but we're getting closer and the amounts keep going up, like they have with the most recent 18Z runs of the GFS, ICON and Euro. I also trust the judgment of pros like Walt Drag and a few others who have been thinking this system was going to move north and bring us more snow than modeled through last night.
Your penchant for cherry picking partial statements has always been annoying. I didn't "predict" 3-5" for Trenton, I said, "things are looking good for at least a few inches for Mercer with the potential for 3-5", which is very different. If we continue to see the trends we're seeing through 0Z tonight, I'd be much more confident in predicting 3-5" for Trenton.
Your 3-5 inch prediction for Trenton looks awful. Almost as bad as Pike with the transfer portal.
