...so we dont have multiple times the death numbers now.
You do realize many of these states opened up very fast and in many of those states, people gathered freely and were not using masks..leading to an increase in the number infected.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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...so we dont have multiple times the death numbers now.
You do realize many of these states opened up very fast and in many of those states, people gathered freely and were not using masks..leading to an increase in the number infected.
Yes I do realize that. We didn't follow the national plan so we're killing business in Democrat states because it an election year. The Big Ten isn't playing for the same reason
Computer models of sorts which likely predict significant spread in late fall and early winter. Fauci would point out the faultiness of these assumptions.
But this still begs the question how and why ? Like I said earlier people preaching about all the needed protocols...calling people out for non adherence... just seems like an attempt at fear mongering once again...if true and the claim has been for several weeks now deaths have been going down... we are at 195 k but it has taken awhile to reach that figure from 150-170 180 ...with approximately 120 days at 1000k per day would be 120k for around 320k... not good but much different than 4000k... and that is with no declines In the daily death totals... Sure as GMLGA they will insert flu deaths into covid19 ... just like NJ has 2 deaths show up yesterday from June 2 nd...
So please explain then how deaths have been declining and it’s now because the states that opened up too soon yet those states totals are still better than NY and NJ... and their populations are far greater... Did NJ and NY open up too quickly? No of course not...Did California , Michigan...no ...Did Texas and Florida yes but in retrospect they are no worse off than those aforementioned in our area...But demonstrations and riots were ok is that what I’m hearing...they had no impact on the viruses spread ... California , Texas, Arizona ... strange and very unsettling .
Black matter immunity.
Explained: 'Mysterious' decline in Pakistan's Covid-19 cases - Times of India
Pakistan News: NEW DELHI: From a peak of over 6,000 daily Covid-19 cases in mid-June to just 300-odd daily fresh cases in September, Pakistan has witnessed a dramati.timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Pakistan seeing a curious decline in cases.
I said I think the IHME projections are overstated, but there's no reason to assume that there will be flu deaths ascribed to COVID, given that we have a very specific test for COVID and hopefully, soon, we'll be using that PCR test as more of a confirmation test, after getting a positive from a less sensitive, but nearly instant, antigen-based screening test. I would also hope that as flu season picks up, any serious respiratory illnesses that make it to hospitals will have a confirmatory test to determine whether the patient is a COVID patient or not. In the southern hemisphere, actual flu deaths are generally way down vs. normal, given masking/distancing, which is significantly more effective in reducing cases of the less transmissible flu than it is for COVID.
The IHME's reasoning for expecting an accelerating death rate is pretty clear and it's not illogical, as opening things back up much more than they were in the spring and even summer, with respect to schools and universities will certainly lead to more cases, and having people more confined indoors will certainly lead to more cases. They're also assuming that masking/distancing is going to decline, which might not be a bad assumption, given the rhetoric from the Administration on doing everything possible to "get back to normal - all one has to do is watch the POTUS's rallies with everyone shoulder to shoulder, cheering and not wearing masks to see that message clearly. I do think they're overlooking the impact of having far more people infected than we did in the spring (which should slow transmissions) and I think treatments are continuing to improve. We'll see, though.
In a bad flu season 20K may die in the months of Nov and Dec. Even if they were to skim 10K off the top, that is not a significant # in the scheme of Covid. Even in an extreme case of numbers fudging it would be piling on, but not a real mover of the data.
Of course those things help limit the spread. But those things aren’t the only factors in play, there is like 20 other things.
In South America, most have done far worse in their "winter" with COVID than they did in their "summer/fall," with fairly low case/death rates through April, but then many of them skyrocketing after that, with some significantly greater than the US during parts of May-August (but not consistently at the same time), as per the graphic below, which is cases per capita (per 1MM). However, there are oddballs, just like in the US, i.e., Uruguay (pretty far from the equator) and Venezuela (on the equator) are doing far better than Brazil, Chile, Peru, Argentina, etc. If being warm/humid was very helpful, that didn't help Peru or Colombia or Ecuador, at all, while Australia and many African/South Asian countries near the equator have done very well so far. The data really show no obvious relationship to climate at all.
My opinion (and that of most experts) is that COVID outbreaks, so far, have had little to do with seasonality and much more to do with a bit of "luck" with regard to their starting point (i.e., how many "seeds" did they have and how many cases before they started testing much) and the effectiveness of their interventions, especially early in any outbreak, like NY, NJ, UK, Spain, Italy, France, etc. that were all hit very hard and very early and had no interventions when they were hit, unlike South Korea, Vietnam, Japan Taiwan, etc., which were hit early/hard but responded very quickly, minimizing the outbreaks. Having said all that, assuming all things being equal, our move into the fall/winter, with more indoor activities, is certainly likely to increase cases at least somewhat (it's just not the biggest driver, IMO).
As an aside, what I'd love to see is a map of travel from China to every country in the world during Dec/Jan and how that relates to how quickly countries started to see major outbreaks (and then secondary travel, like from Europe to the US, after Europe had unknown big outbreaks going on (we know a huge source of the outbreaks in NY/NJ was extensive travel from Europe in Feb/Mar).
With regard to your question on influenza in the southern hemsiphere, yes, cases are way down vs. normal in most of these countries, as per my post from late July (I assume this hasn't changed, but I haven't checked). This is not surprising, since COVID is much more contagious than the flu, meaning that masking/distancing will be much more effective for the flu than for COVID.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
It's very much a residual of the 20th century work construct. Now that many office workers are capable of working from home, this shouldn't even be an issue that comes up. Unless I'm completely bedridden, I work from home when sick...and my group knows that. So they never have an issue if I...
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
We agree, obviously, as I said 320K by January. However, their projections aren't unreasonable or illogical, but we just put different probabilities on them. We truly don't know what reopening schools is going to do with regard to a possible big jump in cases, especially with colder weather and more indoor activities, and knock-on effects with regard to deaths as families perhaps see more transmissions to older, more vulnerable family members and right now it's clear the POTUS is favoring the "just let it go" approach judging by him bringing on Atlas as an advisor and now holding all these maskless, close-in rallies, so there may be a modest to significant decline in masking/distancing. I think these get cancelled out by having less susceptible people around and having improved treatments, but I could be wrong on that.
I do believe the biggest thing that could greatly reduce cases and deaths in the several months we still have before vaccines is rolling out the rapid/frequent antigen testing. If people know, in real time, that they're infected and can then isolate for even 7 days, as opposed to still going about their regular lives while waiting a week for a PCR test result, as Dr. Mina said, we could likely reduce transmissions by 80-90% in a month. Screening doesn't have to be perfect - it just has to be fast (and even if a few folks erroneously quarantine, we'll be ok).
No and neither do you - maybe try looking things up for a change to avoid making more foolish posts. The first IHME model predicted 81K deaths (with a range of 38-162K, given very high uncertainties, plus we only had about 1000 deaths at that point) through June back in late March (I was at 85K); we ended up with 130K through the end of June, so seems like it was a pretty decent projection to me.
There were plenty of other modelers sharing "worst case" models of 1-3MM deaths in the US, which were not out of line with what could happen, if there were no interventions/cures/vaccines and with 50-80% infected and 0.5-1.0% of the infected dying (830K-2640K dead). Fortunately, we've had somewhat effective interventions and our procedures/treatments are making a big difference in wave 2 and hopefully we'll have a vaccine in a few months, although we could have done so much better. But those numbers were not "wrong" given the assumptions.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
Just read this beauty from an article in today's Washington Post. "Japan says inaccurate tests can do more harm than good. Last week, Spain stopped using test kits imported from China after finding they had an accuracy rate of only 30 percent."...
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June -Washington University analysis
HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/USA-FORECAST (TV):Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June -Washington University analysis
I continue to be astonished by the lack of ability of so many people to understand this simple concept. The outcomes in every country could have ranged from close to 0 deaths per 1MM with nearly perfect interventions (Taiwan), to 1-20 deaths/1MM with extremely good interventions (SK, Japan, New Zealand, etc.) to somewhere around 100 deaths/1MM with pretty good interventions (Germany, Turkey, etc.) to well over 500 deaths per 1MM with weak/late interventions (US, much of Europe/S. America) - and although we haven't seen it yet, to well over 5000 deaths per 1MM if absolutely nothing were ever done.
So, while I'd much rather have 2000 deaths (if we had SK's per capita death rate), I'd also much rather have 190K deaths now (and 300-400K deaths by the end of the year) than being on our way to 2MM deaths, which was the worst possible case. The math is actually very simple - trying to convince everyone to do their part, is, unfortunately, very hard in this country.
Interesting preprint (submitted to the Lancet) paper on ivermectin showing a greater than 50% mortality reduction – in a retrospective, observational study, which is typically the lowest rigor kind of clinical trial, although these kinds of trials are much easier to do than the much higher confidence RCTs (randomized, controlled trials) and sometimes are the first indicators that something might really work. Certainly wasn’t expecting this for an anti-parasitic. At least the authors say this means an RCT would be nice to do to confirm their result - would be nice to do one before doing 20 more observational studies, although it's getting harder to find patients to enroll in such studies now that there are some effective treatment options.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers...Li6rv2tiuellDCBRAwgQV_5HYuR037pOwOjMCawUFjxpQ
Would be very cool for me, personally, to see ivermectin work, since I worked on this drug in the late 80s at Merck (it's almost completely an animal-heath drug - it's the active ingredient in Heartguard and it has been donated to African countries for decades to cure river blindness) - it's a beast to make, but is usually active at very low doses, so it would presumably be pretty cheap and available if it works. It’s also highly toxic to daphnia (tiny mysid shrimp) and other aquatic invertebrates at low ppb levels, which is not surprising for an anti-parasitic.
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
blogs.sciencemag.org
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers...Li6rv2tiuellDCBRAwgQV_5HYuR037pOwOjMCawUFjxpQ
Would be very cool for me, personally, to see ivermectin work, since I worked on this drug in the late 80s at Merck (it's almost completely an animal-heath drug - it's the active ingredient in Heartguard and it has been donated to African countries for decades to cure river blindness) - it's a beast to make, but is usually active at very low doses, so it would presumably be pretty cheap and available if it works. It’s also highly toxic to daphnia (tiny mysid shrimp) and other aquatic invertebrates at low ppb levels, which is not surprising for an anti-parasitic.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
Finally, some data are starting to trickle in on convalescent plasma from the blood of infected/recovered COVID patients. A study in Italy with 46 patients reported a decrease in mortality from 15% typically observed to 6% for those receiving the plasma, which is huge. Not a "cure" but...
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
AAAS
blogs.sciencemag.org
Every other state has had the opportunity to watch what happened in the tri state area. Our population density and initial asymptomatic transmission are the biggest contributors to our early struggles. Those other states dont have as dense a population and are lucky enough to have to opportunity to learn from us. In addition, medical advancements have help drive down the death rates. Masks and social distancing have helped reduce the duration of viral exposure which I feel is a big contributor to healthier outcomes. Masks work, there's no denying the importance of them.
They work but really they
Why would they skim off deaths that are flu related... how about we skim 40 k off the covid19 numbers and place them Column # 3.
For many Fauci lost a great deal of trust by his vacillating back and forth on something as simple as the dumb mask issue. Realize this... had Anthony Fauci made a strong initial plea for masks and their benefit in slowing the spread many people would have listened and complied and never gave it a second thought. People then looked at it as political theater when he changed in midstream his statement. The media certainly did not help the situation as a large percentage of people do not trust and hate the press.
Interesting preprint (submitted to the Lancet) paper on ivermectin showing a greater than 50% mortality reduction – in a retrospective, observational study, which is typically the lowest rigor kind of clinical trial, although these kinds of trials are much easier to do than the much higher confidence RCTs (randomized, controlled trials) and sometimes are the first indicators that something might really work. Certainly wasn’t expecting this for an anti-parasitic. At least the authors say this means an RCT would be nice to do to confirm their result - would be nice to do one before doing 20 more observational studies, although it's getting harder to find patients to enroll in such studies now that there are some effective treatment options.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers...Li6rv2tiuellDCBRAwgQV_5HYuR037pOwOjMCawUFjxpQ
Would be very cool for me, personally, to see ivermectin work, since I worked on this drug in the late 80s at Merck (it's almost completely an animal-heath drug - it's the active ingredient in Heartguard and it has been donated to African countries for decades to cure river blindness) - it's a beast to make, but is usually active at very low doses, so it would presumably be pretty cheap and available if it works. It’s also highly toxic to daphnia (tiny mysid shrimp) and other aquatic invertebrates at low ppb levels, which is not surprising for an anti-parasitic.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
Finally, some data are starting to trickle in on convalescent plasma from the blood of infected/recovered COVID patients. A study in Italy with 46 patients reported a decrease in mortality from 15% typically observed to 6% for those receiving the plasma, which is huge. Not a "cure" but...
AAAS
Very interesting. Hope a RCT is in the works. If I remember correctly, this is what India dropped HCQ for.
But then I read stuff like this and I dunno what to think.
Ivermectin | COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines
Review clinical data on the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19.
www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov
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We are at 190K right now and averaging about 1000 deaths a day. Jan is about 122 days away. if we maintain the current average we are north of 300K by Jan. So while 400K sounds like a huge number, it doesn't take much of a increase through the fall/early winter to get there. Lets hope the model doesn't verify(either due to lower infection rates or improvement to treatments).
They are counting lockdown deaths..its absurd..total inflate by 100k thats 33% ..you do realize what 15k under 50 have died
Stop making excuses for this fear mongering model
Stop making excuses for this fear mongering model
If you want to contribute, try writing clear, coherent sentences and maybe add a little context to explain your positions instead of just whining all the time.
The more the fear the better for some as we have seen that played out in the streets daily...The theory that all the mask, distancing and washing helps is over ridden by this model of death without taking into account any of the other “ Science” improvements in combating this virus... too much conflicting news ...thankfully many over age 60 are making efforts to avoid crowds and use some smarts... if you wish to slow and eradicate this disease sans a vaccine get the under 50’s to make a better effort and that doesn’t mean shut everything down... and yes the quick test will help greatly ... when I hadto test back in early August my doctor and I had a long chat about this before hearing on this board... it should help make a difference... Let’s hope so.
Nah ill continue to call out the doom and gloom and fear mongering of this
Keep up the good work. You and a few other valuable posters are keeping this thread from becoming a 5 person doom and gloom echo chamber.
More excellent work by pharma:
Drugmakers seek to reassure public about coronavirus vaccine with joint pledge on safety
Don’t believe model or science. Take out a calculator and multiply 120 days x 1,000. Add that to current death count. That isn’t fear mongering.
He still thinks this is his thread lol!
Explain this please. Went to the PO this am and saw a woman get out of her car. Open the front door and drop the mail in the box. She left and opened her car door and I watched as she got a can of wipes and washed her hands down. She drove off. My question,.,,, shouldn't she have wiped the door handle both in and out since she touched this after she got back in the car ? Eventually when she gets home she will touch both again unless she wipes her hands when she gets in the house.
You don’t even read the thread. There is both good news and bad news posted in this thread. Some people are just really sensitive with bad news in here, can’t imagine how some of you function in real life.
Why do you assume the deaths/day will remain at 1000/day for the next 4 months? Deaths have been consistently declining since Aug. 12th.
Lol... we can all count past 5...and the reason for the 1000 figure staying there or perhaps increasing or better yet decreasing ... so they have determined the figure 1k will never go down is that what the assumption is ? Statistical data needs to be : # 1 imputed correctly and with no bias... # 2 show why there is no possibility this figure is say less ... not saying it will or won’t...Fear is a real emotion and take this from someone who knows first hand... MSM has been very proficient accelerating the fears both with covid19 and violence in major cities and some normal neighborhoods.
7-day average for US deaths is about 850 and dropping.
COVID-19 Data Explorer
Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems
ourworldindata.org
But nobody will admit this nor say it could continue to drop... if those masks and distancing really works along with the new test due out will definitely impact those doom and gloom predictions... what is true as well is our “trusted” media will always find a way to make the worst of an unseen enemy yet hide what really should be a larger worry to this country going forward...7-day average for US deaths is about 850 and dropping.
COVID-19 Data Explorer
Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems
And many of these deaths are likely deaths while infected with corona not because of the infection. There is still no separation of the two groups.
Numbers and the Gloom&Doom crew have been strangely silent about the recent news discussing the US testing at 37-40 cycles of amplification , driving virus levels in their samples up 100-1000 times as high as the German standard.
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