Harper's overall numbers are down, near career lows in some categories (and career highs in strikeout rate). But Harper has been extraordinarily clutch this year --
literally the clutchest hitter in baseball, according to FanGraphs' measures.
Statistically, "clutch" means a player hits better in the highest-leverage moments than he does in lower-leverage ones. It means his impact on his team's win probability is greater than his overall numbers alone would suggest. So, for example, here's Harper by various game states:
- High leverage: .322/.385/.655
- Medium leverage: .261/.372/.444
- Low leverage: .208/.367/.411
Since "clutch" is basically a ratio of two splits, a player can measure out as clutch because he has been really incredible in one, or because he has been really terrible in another, or -- as in Harper's case -- a little bit of each. His low-leverage stats are dragging his overall performance down, making his WAR look mediocre and his career path look less encouraging. But his high-leverage stats are doing what he's trying really hard to do, which is help the Phillies win. By Win Probability Added, Harper ranks
fifth in all of baseball, behind only
Christian Yelich,
Mike Trout,
Cody Bellinger and
Freddie Freeman (in case you're worried that WPA is a junk stat with a junk leaderboard). He has driven in a higher percentage of his baserunners than Trout, Bellinger or Yelich.
Consider the four-game series the Phillies just played against the Giants: Harper went 3-for-14. But the three were a three-run homer, while trailing by one run in the seventh; a two-out, bases-loaded single that turned a one-run deficit into a one-run lead; and a homer that turned a one-run lead into a two-run lead.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27378645/is-bryce-bust-not-take-harper-word-it