Here was my mode of thinking. I was hoping to win $60 plus that I hopefully could use for high speed internet/career search (as most have seen my posting problems here due to not having the later). Piscataway Mike "loaned" me $12 and I was also worried that unless my bets had the potential of making me a big of money Mike wouldn't place. He would probably only take 1-2 calls from me prerace.
I thought pretty much the top 8-10 betting favorites had the potential to win (Audible, Good Magic, Justify, My Boy Jack, Bolt D'oro, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy as a longer shot. USED SOME/THE "general Rules" TO NARROW.
1) "Champions find ways to win". I love horses that haven't lost or maybe lost once in their careers pre derby. Although a favorite name horse "My Boy Jack had won once or twice in 8-10 starts- not the mark of a Derby winner. My Boy Jack and his mother may have been mudders but his overall record was not one that wins the derby, Preakness or Belmont-especially with such a strong field. See line one.
2) UAE Derby winners and eurohorses are pretty much 100% (at least recently) no shows in the Derby. Had to elimnate Mendelssohn despite 18.5 length win in Dubai.
3) If one Derby horse has beaten another in the last two or so races don't expect a change unless you have a big excuse. Then read #1 again.
4) I like horses that won their last two outings min-are on a winning streak.
5) Always use/consider the 2-year old champ as they WERE #1 and can always regain form. Though chose Good Magic late always had him in mind though a slow start this year (possibly due to layoff) never highly considered him to win (esp on $12 budget).
I was pretty much left with 3 horses that stood out-Justify, Audible and Magnum Moon. I kind of rolled the dice against Moon but I due to budget and post position (I think I finally listened to comments re post position
n) I kind of decided to eliminate Moon. I felt a tad better in the minutes before the race re Moon as Bob Baffert said the SLOPPY track had a high inside bias. Magnum Moon was in auxiliary gate 16.
6)***I also WATCHED A LOT OF THE TELECAST PRE RACE.
As time went on and the telecast started both Justify and Audible STOOD OUT BIG TIME.
I liked Audible over Justify a tad pre telecast due to the non racing at 2 thing. However as the race approached I remember there were increasing amounts of NCAA hoops teams that had a preponderance of freshman who had been #1 or close. Also Audible only had one extra race than Justify.
Early on the telecast cut to both stalls. Both horses looked liked beautiful superheros looking all around the stall with ears perked up to the max! I told Mike that Justify's ears perked up to the max looked like Ron Jeremy looking at a hot 18 year old! After seemingly watch Justify BITE HIS STALL gate trying to get out I think I subconsciously realized that I didn't want to and couldn't totally bet against Justify. Again with a $12 budget a $10 win ticket on Justify wouldn't pay much. Therefore I was still leaning a $10 win bet on Audible ( but hated the thought of no bets on Justify. Also had read the papers extensively Thurs-Sat and just as many liked audible higher odds) than Justify.
All of a sudden as the post parade started I decided to go with 6 exactas-3 each. One with each on top and bottom-and with 2 others. To be honest I did this fast and may have been a tad lucky but when your 2 year old juvenile winner is 9-1 that's good value and would give me a nice exacta. Kind of was influenced by the media for the 2nd-more than a few were picking Bolt D Oro so I comboed him over a now 13-1 (why?) undefeated Magnum Moon in post 16.
What a great feeling to have the winner in first and the 2nd and 3rd place horses (found myself rooting for Good Magic to hold on as his odds were higher) from the top of the stretch onward!
