Winds up to 120 mph, which is major hurricane (cat 3) status, despite 20 knots of SW shear, which is very surprising. This storm is likely becoming big enough to "make" its own weather to a certain extent, i.e., to be less affected by external factors, like shear. Jamaica/Cuba could really get crushed and Haiti might get pounded too.
Biggest question is whether the trough coming across the US mid-next week will be strong enough and timed properly to "push" Matthew off to the NE, and off the east coast. That's what a lot of the models are picking up on, but that's 5+ days away and nowhere near certain. The other big thing to watch in the near term is when does Matthew make the turn from heading roughly West to heading north - how far west the storm gets will affect what longitude the storm heads up and will impact whether it hits Florida, NC or is off the coast - although off the coast is still looking more likely.
@RU4Real - no, I'm not sure about it being at our latitude on Friday/Sat - was simply looking at some of the model output which shows that (below - many have the storm at the SC/NC latitude next Friday morning, so being at our latitude Fri/Sat is plausible). Even in the next few days the Euro has the storm moving a lot slower than the GFS and that could translate to a day or 2 difference to reach our latitude. Could be anytime between Friday and Sunday, at least - most tropical systems do accelerate a fair amount once they get to north of the Bahamas, but not all, often including larger storms, as you noted.
What he said. The only caveat is look for when Matthew makes the turn from westward to northward - if it is much later than currently forecast (tomorrow evening), the rest of the forecast will be impacted significantly.
Winds up to 120 mph, which is major hurricane (cat 3) status, despite 20 knots of SW shear, which is very surprising. This storm is likely becoming big enough to "make" its own weather to a certain extent, i.e., to be less affected by external factors, like shear. Jamaica/Cuba could really get crushed and Haiti might get pounded too.
Biggest question is whether the trough coming across the US mid-next week will be strong enough and timed properly to "push" Matthew off to the NE, and off the east coast. That's what a lot of the models are picking up on, but that's 5+ days away and nowhere near certain. The other big thing to watch in the near term is when does Matthew make the turn from heading roughly West to heading north - how far west the storm gets will affect what longitude the storm heads up and will impact whether it hits Florida, NC or is off the coast - although off the coast is still looking more likely.
@RU4Real - no, I'm not sure about it being at our latitude on Friday/Sat - was simply looking at some of the model output which shows that (below - many have the storm at the SC/NC latitude next Friday morning, so being at our latitude Fri/Sat is plausible). Even in the next few days the Euro has the storm moving a lot slower than the GFS and that could translate to a day or 2 difference to reach our latitude. Could be anytime between Friday and Sunday, at least - most tropical systems do accelerate a fair amount once they get to north of the Bahamas, but not all, often including larger storms, as you noted.
What's all this talk about rain? She's a professional and has the weather covered, and everything looks good to me. She is to be trusted, my friends.
What's all this talk about rain? She's a professional and has the weather covered, and everything looks good to me. She is to be trusted, my friends.
