I said it yesterday - big storms move slowly. This one is moving at 6 mph, which is about right for a storm if this intensity.
Saturday is not a concern.
OT: Matthew Hurricane
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
I said it yesterday - big storms move slowly. This one is moving at 6 mph, which is about right for a storm if this intensity.
Saturday is not a concern.
That's what I thought. One of the posters in here early on was talking like the game would be in jeopardy which for selfish reasons I was concerned about. I'll be in and out before anything went down but hope you guys avoid it overall which you most likely will.
Depends on the storm evolution. GFS shows the storm being just off the Jersey Shore next Saturday night at 7 pm, which would make for a monsoon here. GFS is a bit faster than some other models, though, so it's possible that even with a close to the coast solution, the game would be unaffected. Obviously, an out to sea solution is our best case for the game and out to sea is much more likely than up the coast.
The GFS timing is ridiculous at this point. Current NHC guidance now has Matthew in the Bahamas on Thursday morning. For the storm to make it to 40 North by Saturday evening would require a forward speed of 20 mph.
I think it's time to give up on that possibility.
You're being too simplistic. Storm doesn't have to make it to 40N to affect the game. With a large storm, with precip extending out at least 200 miles north of the storm's center and the potential for a predecessor rain event ahead of the storm (where the moisture from the storm gets here well before the storm, itself, but which feeds rainfall hours ahead of the storm getting close), if the storm gets to about 35N (~350 miles away) by 7 pm next Saturday (180 hrs from today's 12Z runs, which is what we're discussing), conditions could already be deteriorating at kickoff and multiple models, not just the GFS, show the storm at 35N or more latitude at 180 hours.
I agree that if Matthew does come up the coast, it's less likely than more likely that it will affect the game, but to say it's "not a concern" is to ignore the potential. And I'm much more inclined to go with the Euro at this stage anyway and that's out to sea (and much slower than the GFS) so it'll be a moot point if it's OTS anyway.
Well your math sucks, then. If Matthew is at 26.5N at 8 am on Thursday, as per the NHC current forecast, it would need to travel at ~10 mph for 60 hours to be at 35N by 8 pm on Saturday and it would need to travel at 15.5 mph for 60 hours to be at 40N. And to be within 200 miles (~37N) of 40N, it would need to travel 12.1 mph for 60 hours. 10-12 mph is easily doable by an accelerating storm, which most are above about 25N latitude, while 15.5 mph would be more of a stretch, but possible.
My point is it's easily possible (although nowhere near a given), meaning your "not a concern" comment is simply wrong. Sometimes, the extra words and calcs help...
HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016
The eye of Matthew has shrunk and become less distinct in
geostationary imagery during the past few hours. Data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show a very sharp wind
profile near the center and a radius of maximum winds of 7 n mi. The
central pressure has risen a little, to 947 mb on the last center
fix. The highest SFMR wind sampled by the aircraft was 118 kt, so
the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 125 kt for this
advisory. Its possible that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun,
but there is not much evidence of a secondary wind maximum in the
aircraft data yet, and we haven't had any recent microwave imagery
to look at the inner-core structure.
Gradual weakening is expected in the next 24 hours, in agreement
with all of the guidance, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane until it until interacts with the land masses of
Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba in 2-3 days. After that time,
conditions appear conducive for restrengthening once Matthew moves
into the Bahamas late in the forecast period. Note that there will
likely be short-term fluctuations in intensity due to possible
eyewall replacement cycles that are not shown here.
Matthew has been moving westward at around 5 kt under the influence
of a mid-level ridge centered near Bermuda. This ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken and shift eastward, which should allow Matthew
to turn northward while it moves into a weakness in the ridge during
the forecast period. The track model guidance is in generally good
agreement on this scenario through 48 hours, and during that time
the new NHC forecast has been shifted a little to the right toward
the latest consensus aids, but remains to their left and lies near
the latest GFS track.
Late in the period the track model spread increases, with the ECMWF
on the right and the GFS well to the left. The evolution of the
western Atlantic subtropical ridge late in the period appears to be
sensitive to the track and strength of the mid/upper-level low
currently centered over the Ohio Valley. The ECMWF shows a weaker
ridge, which allows Matthew to move farther east, while the GFS has
a stronger ridge and takes Matthew more north-northwestward. Given
the uncertainty and variability seen in the handling of these
features from cycle to cycle, the NHC forecast continues to lie in
between the two scenarios, and maintains continuity with the
previous official forecast. The new NHC track is well east of the
latest GFS by day 5, but lies west of the consensus aids. Needless
to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.
It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 13.4N 73.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.6N 73.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 15.7N 75.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 17.1N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 20.5N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1200Z 24.0N 76.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 06/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
1 degree of latitude is 60 nautical miles. From 26.5 to 37 is 10.5 degrees of latitude, which equals 725 statute miles. To cover that in 60 hours is 12 mph, not "~10". I think you forgot the conversion from nautical to statute.
Nope. I was using statute miles, where 1 degree of latitude = 69 miles (or 60 nautical miles). To go from 26.5 to 37N is 725 miles and to cover 725 miles in 60 hours is, indeed, 12.1 mph, which is what I said above. My 10 mph calc was to reach 35N, which is 586 miles and would require a little less than 10 mph for 60 hours to cover. I have no idea where you got 17-18 mph. From where it was projected to be at 8 am Thursday (26.5N) to get to 40N to truly be here, that would be 931 miles and to cover that in 60 hours would rquire 15.5 mph, not 17-18 mph.
The 17 mph speed is what would be required to cover the 1200 miles from Nassau to Sandy Hook, minus 200 miles for effect radius.
5 pm advisory is in and the storm is back up to 150 mph winds and is just now, supposedly starting its move to the north, albeit slowly as it's generally drifting NW now. Give the turn might be occurring a little early, the NHC adjusted the track eastward a bit through Jamaica/Haiti, with the storm now forecast to come slightly closer to Haiti than Jamaica and to then go over the far eastern part of Cuba, which is bad news for the Bahamas, as that means the storm will spend less time over land and mountains and will likely weaken less.
Still unclear where it goes from the Bahamas, but tonight's runs will be watched very carefully, as the SE US east coast is now just about within a 5-day cone from tonight's model runs (if it were to head that way, which would be a surprise). Despite my argument with 4Real, unless the storm accelerates some after the Bahamas, it's unlikely to be much of a factor for our game (unless there's a predecessor rain event where moisture ahead of the storm has an impact well north of the storm's center), but impacts can't be ruled out as hurricanes often accelerate above about 25N in the Atlantic. Current game day forecast is very iffy, depending on Matthew and many other things. Looks seasonable (near 70F), but does list potential showers.
Still unclear where it goes from the Bahamas, but tonight's runs will be watched very carefully, as the SE US east coast is now just about within a 5-day cone from tonight's model runs (if it were to head that way, which would be a surprise). Despite my argument with 4Real, unless the storm accelerates some after the Bahamas, it's unlikely to be much of a factor for our game (unless there's a predecessor rain event where moisture ahead of the storm has an impact well north of the storm's center), but impacts can't be ruled out as hurricanes often accelerate above about 25N in the Atlantic. Current game day forecast is very iffy, depending on Matthew and many other things. Looks seasonable (near 70F), but does list potential showers.
Nassau is 25.0N - I was using the NHC position of 26.5N predicted for 8 am Thursday - that's a 105 mile difference, roughly. In addition, it's 1080 miles from Nassau to Sandy Hook, not 1200 miles. Take both of those errors and you get 1080-105 or 975 miles, which is close to my calc of 931 miles from 26.5 to 40 N (which doesn't account for the small longitude difference - I was looking just at impact, which is all latitude). 931 miles in 60 hours is 15.5 mph. Take the 200 mile radius off and you get my 725 mile number (to 37N) which is 12.1 mph for 60 hours.
You're correct - although in checking back to last night it wasn't Nassau that I was using, it was Exuma, that I was using, which is 1171 miles.
Since then the guidance ticked west (this morning), so that would put the "60 out" starting point a little closer.
Thanks for the acknowledgment. Apart from the minor math details, we largely agree that Matthew is much more likely to arrive at our latitude after the game and to be well off-shore regardless of when it reaches our latitude. My only point in being a bit pedantic here is that there's some chance (10% maybe?) that Matthew accelerates after the Bahamas and comes close enough to our latitude to affect the game - just didn't want people to ignore it.
Now after the shitty game and the bickering it's off to some fun. Going to see the Buzzcocks with a bunch of friends at Irving Plaza tonight - good way to work off the anger, lol...
I'd be more confident of my theory if NHC published a forward velocity with their 24 hour position data. The point being that it would take some considerable amount of time to actually accelerate from 6 mph to 12 or 15 or whatever.
Incidentally, the 5PM cone has ticked east. From what I picked out of AMWx, the EPS members are overwhelmingly saying "fish".
Latest email update...
Based on the latest model runs, Hurricane Matthew is very likely to miss the US east coast late next week/next weekend, but it may come uncomfortably close, especially to the Outer Banks of NC. However, hurricane forecasts beyond 5-6 days are highly uncertain, so this storm still bears watching along the east coast.
Before then, Matthew, a powerful Cat 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 mph will slowly approach the Greater Antilles by Tuesday, likely coming very close to the western tip of Haiti and then crossing the eastern tip of Cuba, with winds in the 130-140 mph range. Damage from winds, storm surge and torrential rains in those areas could be catastrophic. It’s looking like Jamaica may miss the worst of the conditions, especially being on the weaker (western) side of the center of the storm.
After that, the Bahamas are under the gun on Wednesday/Thursday, with Matthew weakening some due to land interactions with Haiti/Cuba, but likely still remaining a Cat 2/3 hurricane, with some restrengthening possible, as the total oceanic heat content in the Bahamas is well above normal, with sea surface temperatures in the low/mid 80s. Beyond then, hurricane forecasts become less certain, although with the storm several hundred miles off the coast of Florida by Thursday/Friday, it would take a major unexpected change in the evolving synoptic setup for Matthew to come close to Florida.
And then, almost all of the models show Matthew bending to the NE as it approaches the NC coast next weekend, but it’s difficult to predict how close it will come to the Outer Banks before doing so and a direct hit (as maybe a cat 2 hurricane with 100-115 mph winds), while a low probability, is still possible. Matthew is extremely unilkely to have any direct impacts for our area, beyond heavy surf/rip currents late next week through the weekend. But that's a week or so away, so still needs to be watched, just in case of major changes in the setup.
Based on the latest model runs, Hurricane Matthew is very likely to miss the US east coast late next week/next weekend, but it may come uncomfortably close, especially to the Outer Banks of NC. However, hurricane forecasts beyond 5-6 days are highly uncertain, so this storm still bears watching along the east coast.
Before then, Matthew, a powerful Cat 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 mph will slowly approach the Greater Antilles by Tuesday, likely coming very close to the western tip of Haiti and then crossing the eastern tip of Cuba, with winds in the 130-140 mph range. Damage from winds, storm surge and torrential rains in those areas could be catastrophic. It’s looking like Jamaica may miss the worst of the conditions, especially being on the weaker (western) side of the center of the storm.
After that, the Bahamas are under the gun on Wednesday/Thursday, with Matthew weakening some due to land interactions with Haiti/Cuba, but likely still remaining a Cat 2/3 hurricane, with some restrengthening possible, as the total oceanic heat content in the Bahamas is well above normal, with sea surface temperatures in the low/mid 80s. Beyond then, hurricane forecasts become less certain, although with the storm several hundred miles off the coast of Florida by Thursday/Friday, it would take a major unexpected change in the evolving synoptic setup for Matthew to come close to Florida.
And then, almost all of the models show Matthew bending to the NE as it approaches the NC coast next weekend, but it’s difficult to predict how close it will come to the Outer Banks before doing so and a direct hit (as maybe a cat 2 hurricane with 100-115 mph winds), while a low probability, is still possible. Matthew is extremely unilkely to have any direct impacts for our area, beyond heavy surf/rip currents late next week through the weekend. But that's a week or so away, so still needs to be watched, just in case of major changes in the setup.
If it hits the east end of Cuba and grazes the west end of Haiti at about 125 mph, as forecast, that's a major hurricane, but nowhere near the worst either country has ever seen; same for the Bahamas. Still, it's going to be pretty impactful, especially for Haiti, which will be on the strong side of the storm and is a country with little to no infrastructure to deal with hurricanes (Cuba is generally very well prepared). Out to sea continues to be the most likely outcome.
Edit: just saw the graphic for estimate rainfall from Matthew in these islands and some mountainous areas could get 20-30 or even 40" of rain and many other areas are likely to get 10-20" - that kind of rainfall could be catastrophic, with killer mudslides and flooding and that rainfall won't be limited to just areas close to the storm, as per the map below. In addition, of course, closer to the storm, there will be major storm surges and hurricane force winds, although the worst of the winds only extend out 40-50 miles from the center, which is kind of unusual.
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While the consensus is certainly for Matthew to come close to the SC/NC coast by about Friday night into Saturday (slower on the Euro), as it moves NW around the western Atlantic ridge (high pressure to the east of Matthew with clockwise motion pushes Matthew to the NW once it reaches the Bahamas), the huge question is when does the major mid-latitude trough, which is currently just off the US West Coast, make it across the US to force Matthew to head from the NW towards SC/NC to the NE and out to sea?
Right now, the models indicate the trough will catch up to Matthew by about Friday/Saturday and push the storm NE, out to sea. The risk, here, however, is we're still talking 5-6 days out and forecasts simply aren't that accurate this far out. There is no question the trough is going to get here and force Matthew to the NE, but if Matthew speeds up at all or the trough slows down, it will only take an error of 100-150 miles (unlikely, but possible) to have Matthew slamming into the SC/NC coast, possibly as a major hurricane (111-130 mph), still.
If we had that path, the move to the NE from the approaching trough would still come, but later, meaning the storm could then ride up the east coast and come close to us. Remember, that's a low probability event (landfall in SC/NC and riding up the coast near us), but not a non-zero probability event, so we're likely going to have to watch this one closely for at least the next several days. So, if you want an out to sea solution, root for Matthew to i) go slower than expected, ii) not move much further to the NW before turning north, and iii) for that trough to not slow down.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/J...hew-continues-northwest-toward-greater-antill
Right now, the models indicate the trough will catch up to Matthew by about Friday/Saturday and push the storm NE, out to sea. The risk, here, however, is we're still talking 5-6 days out and forecasts simply aren't that accurate this far out. There is no question the trough is going to get here and force Matthew to the NE, but if Matthew speeds up at all or the trough slows down, it will only take an error of 100-150 miles (unlikely, but possible) to have Matthew slamming into the SC/NC coast, possibly as a major hurricane (111-130 mph), still.
If we had that path, the move to the NE from the approaching trough would still come, but later, meaning the storm could then ride up the east coast and come close to us. Remember, that's a low probability event (landfall in SC/NC and riding up the coast near us), but not a non-zero probability event, so we're likely going to have to watch this one closely for at least the next several days. So, if you want an out to sea solution, root for Matthew to i) go slower than expected, ii) not move much further to the NW before turning north, and iii) for that trough to not slow down.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/J...hew-continues-northwest-toward-greater-antill
I will see your Matthew and raise you Yanet and quite possibly somebody else who is highly educated, sin duda.
And the Gulf looks safe, too.
My connections are solid.
Here she is in Rutgers colors.
And the Gulf looks safe, too.
My connections are solid.
Here she is in Rutgers colors.
OH OH. HATE TO BE THE BEARER OF NOT SO GOOD NEWS but the updated forecast has the hurricane moving directly north for now with THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTLY THE FLORIDA COASTLINE. I took a ruler and directly north seems to put it right at the south end of NJ (unlikely?) but the outer banks really stick out badly here. Speghetti models still put off coast but THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD WELL BE CLOSE.
THE WORST PART IS THAT WEATHER.COM IS NOW CALLING FOR A CLOUDY AND SHOWERY (40%) Saturday.
Numbers-5AM 15.2 N 74.9 W, winds 130 MPH (same), 943 MB (same) moving slightly faster at 6MPH NORTH.
THE WORST PART IS THAT WEATHER.COM IS NOW CALLING FOR A CLOUDY AND SHOWERY (40%) Saturday.
Numbers-5AM 15.2 N 74.9 W, winds 130 MPH (same), 943 MB (same) moving slightly faster at 6MPH NORTH.
Nobody listens to weather.com.
That said, the models have definitely shifted westward overnight. The consensus solution is still OTS, but with a track that's tucked into the coast a bit more than previously modeled.
Given the current projection, an expanded precip field from Matthew could potentially affect the game.
That said, the models have definitely shifted westward overnight. The consensus solution is still OTS, but with a track that's tucked into the coast a bit more than previously modeled.
Given the current projection, an expanded precip field from Matthew could potentially affect the game.
Quick 1800 update: Matthew is huuuuge. Really something. The best storm, I'm telling you. Consensus solution is still OTS, the last UKMET was the sole outlier for a landfall. Models below:
I have asked this before but did not get a clear answer..... Is one of these tracks the European model, and if so, what is the three or four letter abbreviation on the chart...
I often hear about that model being reliable, yet I have trouble actually finding it..... If it is not on this one, how are you guys following the European model?
This. I remember when Sandy was down around Cuba she was supposed to fish hook to the NE. The western turn or "left hook" didn't get predicted until a day or two later, iirc. It's too early. Right now, I'd say OBX might be in some trouble.
Yes and no. The Euro completely nailed the track of Sandy from before it hit Cuba (7-8 days before it hit NJ), while most of the rest of the models showed it going out to sea until the storm was 4-5 days out. At the time, given the much better performance of the Euro with tropical systems in the medium range, many pros were all over the risks to the east coast. Seeing that, I posted regularly about the threat here.
http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/12/why-european-forecasters-saw-sandys-path-first/
For this storm, the Euro did shift west a bit last night, taking Matthew closer (within maybe 100 miles) to the FL coast, but is still curves the storm out to sea before hitting either SC or NC. As I said last night, though, the storm is still 5+ days away from any potential landfall in SC/NC, so people in those areas still need to pay close attention, since the uncertainty is high enough that the storm still could hit there. Same up here, although the chance of any direct hit in this area are much, much lower, as no models show a Sandy-like NW hook into our area.
As far as I know it's not in that graphic. Not sure why, but I know there are some odd "rules" with the Euro, as it's very expensive to have a license for its full output. PSU's eyewall and Tropical Tidbits do have some elements of the Euro (or ECMWF, as it's known, formally). However, these sites can be a bit clunky and the tropical threads on the AmericanWx or AccuWeather boards almost always show the Euro output soon after it comes out, so I usually just look there.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48950-category-4-hurricane-matthew/?page=38
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
The reason why the Euro isn't on that graphic is because the graphic is off-hours for the Euro, which only runs twice a day.
Ash - my advice is to read this thread or the gameday thread before posting what you think to be breaking news and you'll see that all of these possibilities have already been discussed. And quoting weather.com for our local forecast is not helpful - the NWS is much better...and caps don't help.
WHAT ARE YOU SAYING DON'T YOU WANT PEOPLE POSTING ON THIS THREAD WHY ARE YOU REPRESSING US
I was answering in general - it's not on last night's 00Z spaghetti plot either and I don't think I've ever seen it on that graphic.
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