Speaking for myself I wouldn't be sad in the least. That I can assure you.
OT: Matthew Hurricane
- Thread starter Tango Two
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Speaking for myself I wouldn't be sad in the least. That I can assure you.
If this affects your date Thursday night, that means you're in the Bahamas, so I'm guessing no. Tailgating? Gun to my head, I'd say 50% chance we get more than nuisance rain (nuisance to me is a few showers with <0.1" of rain, especially with temps in the upper 60s). Game? I'd say 70% chance we have enough rain to keep the field wet for more than half the game, i.e., at least 0.2" of rain. Those are close to WAGs.
lol..thanks..so as of now odds are decent we're getting a WAG tailgate and game day. Ugh. So much for the "stripe out" lol!
Or he got lucky and she stays over for 2-3 days or he got unlucky and she stays over for 2-3 days.
It's all about perspective.
Well, I place RU football above about everything, except snowfall, so no, I'll be rooting for out to sea, as I want a great day of tailgating and an historic upset victory over a team overlooking us. I rooted for snow in that WVU game and had an absolute blast, despite the loss.
If there were no RU game, I'd be torn. I do love wild weather, having headed down the shore for almost every close call in the last 35 years, but being a homeowner and having seen the devastation of Sandy up close at my house, in my town, and all over the area (I was part of the emergency response team for our site and my wife and I did a fair amount of volunteering for supplying harder hit areas with supplies), I don't want to see friends and others go through that again.
If it is a direct hit I take Rutgers and the points and the under and call it a night :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
Would love a good, steady soaking rain as we could use it...but having been hammered by Sandy (lost dozens of trees, no power for a month) I'll pass on the winds.
the Euro verbatim is zilch for us..whats funny is to see the typical snowweenies like snow88 want to totally discount the Euro and others trashing it as well because it doesnt show the hit
Utter devastation on the western end, especially in the mountainous areas (of which there are many) above 200-300 feet and especially those over 1000 feet. Most of the mountains have been denuded of all trees - saw a satellite pic on TWC today, where you can clearly see the border between Haiti and the DR, merely by the satellite imagery showing no trees/green on the Haitian side.
130 mph winds at the surface, 180+ mph winds at elevation, 20+" of rain, no trees, people living in tin shacks or even tents, since the earthquake, no infrastructure/emergency response system to speak of all are ingredients, sadly, for a catastrophe with thousands dying. And there's nothing anyone can do except try to help them afterwards - where getting aid/supplies to remote areas will be very difficult and where we might see more outbreaks of things like cholera.
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I live on the coast in SC, five minute walk from the ocean. My house is surrounded by pine trees. Please, please turn east. Please.
11 pm Advisory is up and the storm's winds were increased from 140 mph to 145 mph, as the pressure dropped from 940 to 934 mbar. Storm should maintain this strength until landfall in Haiti and eastern Cuba, which will likely weaken the storm at least a bit (130 mph forecast once it passes Cuba).
Track was nudged a bit westward from Cuba through the Bahamas and is now only about 50-60 miles off the coast of Florida, meaning hurricane watches will almost certainly go up early tomorrow from at least Miami to Daytona, if not all the way to the GA line.
If that track verified, the Florida coast would be hit moderately hard, but not catastrophically, as hurricane force winds currently only extend out 40 miles from the storm's center, while TS force winds extent out 180 miles, meaning the FL coast would likely not experience hurricane conditions (with the current track - given forecasting errors, they have to issue the hurricane watches, since it'll be a close call).
Track then takes Matthew very close to the SC/NC coast with landfall likely near Wilmington, NC (or maybe east of there) at the end of the 120 hour period the NHC covers. NHC doesn't forecast beyond that and the major 00Z models won't come out until midnight to 2 am, but our area needs to watch this storm closely.
Track was nudged a bit westward from Cuba through the Bahamas and is now only about 50-60 miles off the coast of Florida, meaning hurricane watches will almost certainly go up early tomorrow from at least Miami to Daytona, if not all the way to the GA line.
If that track verified, the Florida coast would be hit moderately hard, but not catastrophically, as hurricane force winds currently only extend out 40 miles from the storm's center, while TS force winds extent out 180 miles, meaning the FL coast would likely not experience hurricane conditions (with the current track - given forecasting errors, they have to issue the hurricane watches, since it'll be a close call).
Track then takes Matthew very close to the SC/NC coast with landfall likely near Wilmington, NC (or maybe east of there) at the end of the 120 hour period the NHC covers. NHC doesn't forecast beyond that and the major 00Z models won't come out until midnight to 2 am, but our area needs to watch this storm closely.
If you're at less than 10 feet in elevation and it looks like Matthew will make landfall near you as a Cat 3 storm, I'd say evacuate without hesitation. Otherwise use your judgment if you're only likely to get tropical storm conditions and a few feet of storm surge. Where are you and do you know your elevation?
848789 not sure how your "advice" holds but remember some storms such as Hurricane Katrina grew stronger last minute without warning.
Also sometimes I'm not so sure one can bot physically and mentally
prepare. I remember during Floyd residents of Bound Brook were woken up suddenly at night when water reached the top or near the top of their houses. Some people floated off and were saved (a few may have died).
There might be a tendency to under prepare (if Its possible to properly prepair) in places where devastation has never happened. My parents used to have a place in Manahawkin/Village Harbor (incorrectly still referred to as beach Haven West) and I always wondered if and how much water could rise above the docks. I later heard correctly? that water rose above the docks during Sandy to the extent people got 6 1/2 fet of water in their houses (away from the Bay). If I correctly heard and its hard to believe) but supposedly the whole area (6-7 miles from the beach) now has to be on risers (if so unthinkable). Sandy wasn't even a category 1 (technically) was it?
Also sometimes I'm not so sure one can bot physically and mentally
prepare. I remember during Floyd residents of Bound Brook were woken up suddenly at night when water reached the top or near the top of their houses. Some people floated off and were saved (a few may have died).
There might be a tendency to under prepare (if Its possible to properly prepair) in places where devastation has never happened. My parents used to have a place in Manahawkin/Village Harbor (incorrectly still referred to as beach Haven West) and I always wondered if and how much water could rise above the docks. I later heard correctly? that water rose above the docks during Sandy to the extent people got 6 1/2 fet of water in their houses (away from the Bay). If I correctly heard and its hard to believe) but supposedly the whole area (6-7 miles from the beach) now has to be on risers (if so unthinkable). Sandy wasn't even a category 1 (technically) was it?
I had nearly 5' with Sandy. You have to remember Sandy came straight in, bringing a large storm surge along with it at almost a 90 degree angle.
If you mean by Risers, poles that are driven 20-40 feet into the ground, they are required in some beach areas but I don't think it's anything close to 6-7 miles unless perhaps you are up against a back bay. Many who rebuilt did it (Poles) anyway. I'm less than 100 yards from the beach and I'm not required to do it by any local, state, or federal agency. I'm lifting my house if I can ever get the town to approve what I'm doing but I'll have a reinforced concrete foundation as many are in my area which will put my home well above the AE9 minimum.
11 pm Advisory is up and the storm's winds were increased from 140 mph to 145 mph, as the pressure dropped from 940 to 934 mbar. Storm should maintain this strength until landfall in Haiti and eastern Cuba, which will likely weaken the storm at least a bit (130 mph forecast once it passes Cuba).
Track was nudged a bit westward from Cuba through the Bahamas and is now only about 50-60 miles off the coast of Florida, meaning hurricane watches will almost certainly go up early tomorrow from at least Miami to Daytona, if not all the way to the GA line.
If that track verified, the Florida coast would be hit moderately hard, but not catastrophically, as hurricane force winds currently only extend out 40 miles from the storm's center, while TS force winds extent out 180 miles, meaning the FL coast would likely not experience hurricane conditions (with the current track - given forecasting errors, they have to issue the hurricane watches, since it'll be a close call).
Track then takes Matthew very close to the SC/NC coast with landfall likely near Wilmington, NC (or maybe east of there) at the end of the 120 hour period the NHC covers. NHC doesn't forecast beyond that and the major 00Z models won't come out until midnight to 2 am, but our area needs to watch this storm closely.
Not to downplay what this storm may do - anywhere - however this shows it the furthest reaches of it hitting Southern Virginia Saturday night which, I assume, bodes well for us both tailgating and game-wise, no? Is there a storm coming in from the west that's also a concern?
No meteorological expert (though I called rain for the game 10 days ago based on name) but another front from the west (combining) was talked about on the news I bELieve. Also I guess the answer lies in how far the outer bands (advancing) outer bands extend out.
Ugh. So rain likely regardless if that's still the case. Thanks and, yeah, I remember you called it!
FYI - granted not the best barometers 5 days out BUT accuweather has us at 8% chance of showers/t-storm on Sat. Weather.com with high humidity and breezy all day and night. Both have heavy rains not hitting until early Sunday morning now. The only reason I'm posting this is in regards to the OTHER front potentially coming in from the west.
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Knightfan, I was referring to Manahawkin (Village Harbor) where my parents RIP used to have a house. The house was a mile or two from the Bridge that is 4 miles or so from the beach (Ship Bottom on LBI) I believe. I think Cedar Bonnet Island RUns between Ship Bottom and Manahawkin. I do know Christie had several post Sandy town halls in Manahawkin.
Village Harbor, though (what I was told) has an lagoon system that runs from the bay. The closest houses are maybe a tenth of a mile if that as the crow flies. The lagoon system runs and winds for about 1 1 1/2 miles to what believe was the oldest portions of Village Harbor (where we had our house) and to the "newer" portions (~1982?) up against the Forsythe Wildlife refuge (with such big mosquitos and aggressive flies that it was an inside joke on the last season of "The X Files" (Mosquito Man/Monster from Manahawkin NJ).
Pretty much all the house on the water in the lagoons have docks to park boats. I think the highest I ever saw or heard pre Sandy was water a few feet from the TOP of the docks (not the docks at water level).
Well, model mayhem continues. GFS and UK models stick with the idea of a close grazing of the entire FL coast (with the UK hitting FL), then paralleling the SC/NC coast and landfalling in eastern NC, then riding NE maybe 50-100 miles off the Jersey Shore, clipping Cape Cod and then hitting eastern Maine. While the Euro is nearly identical until it gets to just off the NC coast by Wilmington, then it goes due ENE and out to sea.
For comparison purposes, the Euro is maybe 100 miles SW of the GFS's posiiton at 120 hours (7 pm Saturday, with the GFS in Albemarle Sound and the Euro along the NC coast, just about on top of Wilmington. But then at 144 hours (Sunday at 7 pm), the GFS is in Downeast Maine, while the Euro is 300 miles east of Norfolk. Huge divergence in that 24 hour period. Which model will be right? I have no idea, but I wouldn't bet against the Euro, even though it's just about all alone.
If you're an RU fan and want a decent tailgate and mostly dry game, root for the Euro. The UK/GFS, while only having Matthew inland of the OBX at 7 pm on Saturday, are both modeled to be interacting with the approaching trough from the west in what's known as a predecessor rain event, which I talked more about in the game thread - in some situations like this the rain jumps well out ahead of the tropical system, due to that interaction with the trough - both the UK and GFS (and the Canadian) models show heavy rain by game time and very heavy rain on Sunday.
For comparison purposes, the Euro is maybe 100 miles SW of the GFS's posiiton at 120 hours (7 pm Saturday, with the GFS in Albemarle Sound and the Euro along the NC coast, just about on top of Wilmington. But then at 144 hours (Sunday at 7 pm), the GFS is in Downeast Maine, while the Euro is 300 miles east of Norfolk. Huge divergence in that 24 hour period. Which model will be right? I have no idea, but I wouldn't bet against the Euro, even though it's just about all alone.
If you're an RU fan and want a decent tailgate and mostly dry game, root for the Euro. The UK/GFS, while only having Matthew inland of the OBX at 7 pm on Saturday, are both modeled to be interacting with the approaching trough from the west in what's known as a predecessor rain event, which I talked more about in the game thread - in some situations like this the rain jumps well out ahead of the tropical system, due to that interaction with the trough - both the UK and GFS (and the Canadian) models show heavy rain by game time and very heavy rain on Sunday.
Games gonna get moved to noon or 3:30 if it ends up heading for NJ. What a bummer.
As it moves north the cone of uncertainty now includes Cape May/Southern tip of NJ...
On the other hand at least looking somewhat positive at least Saturday's tailgate COULD be dry...
On the other hand at least looking somewhat positive at least Saturday's tailgate COULD be dry...
RU Fans luck it will be moved to a nooner! That said no expert but it seems with the storm trending a bit later-and seemingly only with showers-the game very unlikely to be moved (esp with TV). Ch 7 and others not even putting "showers late" now on Saturday.
Our game at Maryland last year was moved from 8p to noon because of Hurricane Joaquin. Announced the Thursday before even while the storm was still uncertain to hit and if it did, wasn't even expected to reach Maryland until Sunday/Monday.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...-to-noon-saturday-hurricane-joaquin/73146904/
Game will not be moved, even if it heads towards NJ, as even in that very unlikely case it wouldn't reach here until about 8-10 am Sunday at the earliest. Simply having heavy rain on Sat night is not a reason to move it.
Don't say "won't", because that would be potentially incorrect.
IF the models were to project a strong run up the coast with major effects in the early Sunday AM timeframe, it's likely that the state OEM folks would be looking to ensure that a) everyone had ample time to prepare and b) traffic was off the roads by late Saturday night. Again, IF NJ were to expect tropical conditions with flooding rains in the early Sunday AM timeframe a state of emergency would probably go into effect Saturday night and it would impact the game.
the details arent ironed out so the rains could very well come in earlier Saturday and if models show they could come in at the 4-6 inch rates Saturday night, thats when the chance the game gets moved.
of course the Euro could be right and we get absolutely nothing at all as the trough doesnt pick up Matthew
of course the Euro could be right and we get absolutely nothing at all as the trough doesnt pick up Matthew
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