OT: Matthew Hurricane

[MadRU]

Haiti getting hit now, max sustained winds near 145 mph.

 

[RU1977]

I'm rooting for the Euro.... Go east!

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Look, our Jersey Shore and points inland are not ready to take the brunt of another monstrous storm.
It will be devastating if this storm hits NJ.

 

[LevaosLectures]

A dropsonde just measured a 191 mph wind at 886 feet in the northern eyewall.

This storm is going to be absolutely disastrous for Haiti. The devastation is going to be unreal. This is not a good thing.

I blame you and your jinx thread from a couple of weeks ago.
This is going to be rough.

 

[RU4Real]

I blame you and your jinx thread from a couple of weeks ago.
This is going to be rough.

wait wut

 

[LevaosLectures]

Yikes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is insane. Les Cayes, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Haiti?src=hash">#Haiti</a> just now, in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a>&#39;s eyewall! <a href="https://t.co/T7UgMEjZc8">https://t.co/T7UgMEjZc8</a> <a href="https://t.co/qajmPDvlOK">pic.twitter.com/qajmPDvlOK</a></p>&mdash; Alejandro Alvarez (@aletweetsnews) <a href="">October 4, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[RU_DIO]

Look, our Jersey Shore and points inland are not ready to take the brunt of another monstrous storm.
It will be devastating if this storm hits NJ.

Shore would be ready if the state would finally force the beach replenishment program except that they don't want to tick off the wealthy beach owners.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Forecast keeps getting worse for the US East Coast by the minute.

Go get gas now folks

 

[mikemarc1]

Nj isn't going to get the "brunt" of this storm.

No need to get gas.

 

[ScarletStateofNJ]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/114739W5_NL_sm.gif

 

[fatsam98]

Does Mother Nature think we are playing West Virginia this week?

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/114739W5_NL_sm.gif

for the non weather experts, what exactly does this mean?

 

[fatsam98]

I think it means bring a poncho.

 

[RutgersRaRa]

We'll allow your attempted hijacking of the thread, lol...

If we only include actual meteorologists, I'll take Jen Delgado...

Allow it? You should be THANKING ME for it and giving me a like for every one of these!! What is better for a football board than a weather girl named Yanet predicting sunny weather in Mexico four years ago?

 

[RutgersRaRa]

I think it means bring a poncho.

LOL!!

 

[Plum Street]

This thing is looking pretty bleak for nj ?

 

[SteveVA2]

If you're at less than 10 feet in elevation and it looks like Matthew will make landfall near you as a Cat 3 storm, I'd say evacuate without hesitation. Otherwise use your judgment if you're only likely to get tropical storm conditions and a few feet of storm surge. Where are you and do you know your elevation?

Hilton Head. 14 feet elevation.

 

[Machiavelli23]

Shore would be ready if the state would finally force the beach replenishment program except that they don't want to tick off the wealthy beach owners.

then those wealthy beach owners can go swimming

 

[cicero grimes]

On the bright side, if the storm hits us at game time, dehydration will not be an issue.

 

[MGSA99]

Does Mother Nature think we are playing West Virginia this week?

Well, Michigan and WVU are very similar in color scheme...

 

[Tango Two]

11am update from the NHC. Since one storm was not bad enough we now also have Tropical Storm Nicole on the map with Matthew. Winds for Matthew remain at 145mph. No landfall expected until the Carolina's. If it affects the NYC area it won't be until Sunday/Monday hopefully...

 

[Tango Two]

Here is the probability of seeing tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Matthew:

 

[RU5781]

What kinds of wind gusts are we expecting up here during game time?

 

[BlockR]

would they move the gametime to 1pm.?

 

[RU848789]

Don't say "won't", because that would be potentially incorrect.

IF the models were to project a strong run up the coast with major effects in the early Sunday AM timeframe, it's likely that the state OEM folks would be looking to ensure that a) everyone had ample time to prepare and b) traffic was off the roads by late Saturday night. Again, IF NJ were to expect tropical conditions with flooding rains in the early Sunday AM timeframe a state of emergency would probably go into effect Saturday night and it would impact the game.

Fair points, especially now that the NHC predicted the storm to accelerate from the 5 am forecast (reaching our latitude 6-8 hours sooner now). If the storm moves toward the Euro idea, we'll know that by Friday evening and if it's going that way, they very likely would not go to a state of emergency on Saturday sometime.

However, if it looks like the storm will still be a 90 mph cat 1 hurricane and will track within 50 miles of the NJ coast (right now it's 90 miles off the coast, which would barely bring tropical storm force winds to the coast) from about midnight Sunday morning through noon Sunday, then I could see a State of Emergency being posted.

FYI, the 12Z GFS continued its move towards the Euro, out-to-sea solution - the storm never gets within 300 miles of the NJ coast. It still is a close call for FL and SC/N, although it never actually makes landfall (it's within 25 miles of the NC coast though) before heading ENE and out to sea. I'm thinking if the Euro holds serve, the NHC will shift the track further off shore.

 

[mikemarc1]

would they move the gametime to 1pm.?

Highly doubt. We aren't getting a direct hit from a hurricane. Rainy, and some wind.

 

[MulletCork]

Thanks for the update #'s!

 

[OTBOTOR]

for the non weather experts, what exactly does this mean?

If it goes right down the center of that "cone of uncertainty," it looks like the center would pass about 90 miles off Asbury Park. For the NJ Shore region, this means gusty winds (possibly tropical storm force right along the coast) and a lot of rain, wave action and beach erosion, and probably moderate coastal flooding at the NJ Shore.

If it takes a path closer to the west edge of that cone of uncertainty, less winds for sure, but possibly more rain and inland flooding (think Floyd 1999). If it takes a path closer to the east edge of that cone of uncertainty, the fish will get wet, and red "no swimming" flags will be flying at the beaches.

 

[mikemarc1]

If it goes right down the center of that "cone of uncertainty," it looks like the center would pass about 90 miles off Asbury Park. For the NJ Shore region, this means gusty winds (possibly tropical storm force right along the coast) and a lot of rain, wave action and beach erosion, and probably moderate coastal flooding at the NJ Shore.

If it takes a path closer to the west edge of that cone of uncertainty, less winds for sure, but possibly more rain and inland flooding (think Floyd 1999). If it takes a path closer to the east edge of that cone of uncertainty, the fish will get wet, and red "no swimming" flags will be flying at the beaches.

Could be wrong here..but if it does go out to sea, we will still get rain from the trough coming through (which is what will kick it out to sea).

 

[RU in IM]

would they move the gametime to 1pm.?

Play it safe and move it to Friday night now.

 

[mikemarc1]

Play it safe and move it to Friday night now.

Just cancel it.

 

[RutgersRaRa]

Play it safe and move it to Friday night now.

Heck no. We want the wind to limit UM's options. We are decent against the run if the opposing QB can't throw, and wind will neutralize their ability. If we can make this a one-dimensional game it might not be a blowout.

 

[ClassOf02]

Play it safe and move it to Friday night now.

Just cancel it.

Michigan should just forfeit.

 

[Burning_Knights]

Play it safe and move it to Friday night now.

If they do it will most likely be early Saturday, they did this last year when Michigan went to Maryland. At the moment no reason to push earlier in the week as the storm seems to be slowing from its earlier projected time frame.

 

[LevaosLectures]

wait wut

Didn't you post a thread about a historical lack of major hurricanes in recent years? Maybe my memory is faulty. Anyway was a joke.

 

[newell138]

High winds and rain can only help us since we cant throw the ball anyway.

 

[RU848789]

Didn't you post a thread about a historical lack of major hurricanes in recent years? Maybe my memory is faulty. Anyway was a joke.

It was US landfalling major hurricanes since 2005 (none) and it's not a given this one, despite being major now, will either make landfall at all or if it does, especially in NC, when it should be weaker, if it will be major. Streak is more likely to continue than not.

 

[RU848789]

Fair points, especially now that the NHC predicted the storm to accelerate from the 5 am forecast (reaching our latitude 6-8 hours sooner now). If the storm moves toward the Euro idea, we'll know that by Friday evening and if it's going that way, they very likely would not go to a state of emergency on Saturday sometime.

However, if it looks like the storm will still be a 90 mph cat 1 hurricane and will track within 50 miles of the NJ coast (right now it's 90 miles off the coast, which would barely bring tropical storm force winds to the coast) from about midnight Sunday morning through noon Sunday, then I could see a State of Emergency being posted.

FYI, the 12Z GFS continued its move towards the Euro, out-to-sea solution - the storm never gets within 300 miles of the NJ coast. It still is a close call for FL and SC/N, although it never actually makes landfall (it's within 25 miles of the NC coast though) before heading ENE and out to sea. I'm thinking if the Euro holds serve, the NHC will shift the track further off shore.

The Canadian and UK models have followed the GFS, caving to the Euro's idea of an out to sea solution - assuming the Euro holds serve in about 30 minutes, we'll absolutely see a major shift in the forecast track. Then, if we get another cycle tonight confirming this, I think we'll almost be in the clear for major impacts in our area, although the NHC will be slow to move the track too far away from DE/NJ/NY/MA before they're absolutely sure. And we'd not have to worry about moving the game and might even get good tailgating weather, although some rain is likely even in the out to sea scenario.

 

[bac2therac]

Many 12z models are east and moving toward the euro

 

[Ridge 22]

First decent tailgate opportunity of the year (i.e. not a noon start) and I am bringing my wife and kids. So, I am really hoping for the 'no rain' solution, even though my lawn can really use it. Let's hope the out to sea trend continues.