OT: Matthew Hurricane

[knightfan7]

So our taxes should go to pay for the beach Jenkinsons charges the public to use? Do they still do that - it's been a while for me. That is utter nonsense. Public funds, MAYBE, should be used to replenish PUBLIC beaches. Private landowners should replenish their own beaches. Hell I don't think public beaches should be "replenished" because beaches don't disappear - they change and have been since the beginning of time. It's just a more of a waste of public money on private special interests.

Me thinks you are one of those Special Interests.

Well you thinks wrong. Neither I nor any family member have a connection to any entity that makes money off the beaches. I do bartend part time but at a facility well off the beach and only for weddings and private functions. You also bring up Jenkinson's when I specifically said beach communities that are open to the public. Despite what many think I pay the same beach fee as anyone who visits. I do understand those fees pay for maintenance and cleanup, lifeguards, and other costs associated with providing a source of recreation and enjoyment in a town such as mine where the population expands from 6,000 to 20,000 during the summer. Should I foot the bill for those expenses? Think not.

Anyway we've hijacked the thread so I'll stop. This is usually a Memorial Day topic. I'll discuss it further with you at that time if you so wish.

 

[RUScrew85]

Say goodbye to all beaches in NJ if you think this way. The reason the wealthy don't want their private beaches to be replenished is because they would no longer be private. At least that is my understanding. Meanwhile, the beaches in certain parts of the state get smaller and smaller and the damage storms cause costs the state millions of dollars in flood damage. Have you been to Ortley Beach lately?

What you mean is say goodbye to beaches as they are currently configured. The beach will persist - just not where some folks want the beach to be. Barrier islands and beaches move disappear and re-appear all the time. I'll bet there is still some sand where the water ends in Ortley - unless someone built a road or parking lot that is still hanging on.

 

[RUScrew85]

Well you thinks wrong. Neither I nor any family member have a connection to any entity that makes money off the beaches. I do bartend part time but at a facility well off the beach and only for weddings and private functions. You also bring up Jenkinson's when I specifically said beach communities that are open to the public. Despite what many think I pay the same beach fee as anyone who visits. I do understand those fees pay for maintenance and cleanup, lifeguards, and other costs associated with providing a source of recreation and enjoyment in a town such as mine where the population expands from 6,000 to 20,000 during the summer. Should I foot the bill for those expenses? Think not.

Anyway we've hijacked the thread so I'll stop. This is usually a Memorial Day topic. I'll discuss it further with you at that time if you so wish.

Well I can see your argument but I disagree to some extent on public beaches with you. Apparently we were cross communicating about private beaches.

 

[RuRats27]

Hi weather gurus. I'm down here in Charleston, SC and I'm trying to get a feel for this storm. Gov is ordering an evacuation of all the coastal counties including Mount Pleasant where I live. Right now we plan on following that order but it just kills me to abandon ship and head to North Carolina. Is that just hubris on my part or should I heed the states warning and get out for a few days? Any help would be appreciated.

 

[RU4Real]

Hi weather gurus. I'm down here in Charleston, SC and I'm trying to get a feel for this storm. Gov is ordering an evacuation of all the coastal counties including Mount Pleasant where I live. Right now we plan on following that order but it just kills me to abandon ship and head to North Carolina. Is that just hubris on my part or should I heed the states warning and get out for a few days? Any help would be appreciated.

What's your elevation and distance from the water?

 

[RuRats27]

What's your elevation and distance from the water?

I'm about two miles from the Wando River. I'm in a SHFZ (AE) but I'm relatively close (two blocks) from the start of the X500 zone. During the rains from Hurricane Joaquim we didn't flood.

New development...so no large trees or any falling hazards near the house.

 

[knightfan7]

Hi weather gurus. I'm down here in Charleston, SC and I'm trying to get a feel for this storm. Gov is ordering an evacuation of all the coastal counties including Mount Pleasant where I live. Right now we plan on following that order but it just kills me to abandon ship and head to North Carolina. Is that just hubris on my part or should I heed the states warning and get out for a few days? Any help would be appreciated.

Without knowing your specific situation, my immediate thought is yes you should absolutely heed the warning. Even if you're inconvenienced unnecessarily, that is a small price to pay compared to what could happen. I was in Myrtle Beach up to less than 10 hours before Hugo hit. Look at what that did to your area.

I left but know a guy down the street from me who didn't leave when we had Sandy up here. The police came to his door and asked him to evacuate with this warning...."If you call for assistance. we're not going to be able to get to you. You're on your own." He stayed sitting in an upstairs bedroom in the dark while waves crashed nearby and the house shook. He said he was never so scared in his life and expected to die. He said it was the single dumbest thing he'd ever done.

It's not only the storm itself. It's the things that happen because of the storm that can be as equally dangerous.

I'm going to wish you the best no matter what you decide. Be smart.

 

[RU85inFla]

What's your elevation and distance from the water?

Any thoughts about Jacksonville Becahes. Been a safe haven for decades but this one has me concerned. Any insight. The city is gonna make a call at 10 am. I have a reservation if evacuation call comes.

 

[mildone]

I'm about two miles from the Wando River. I'm in a SHFZ (AE) but I'm relatively close (two blocks) from the start of the X500 zone. During the rains from Hurricane Joaquim we didn't flood.

New development...so no large trees or any falling hazards near the house.

Do you have a boat?

In all seriousness, as someone else said, it's not just the risk of wind or flooding, it's everything else that can come along with a natural disaster. Pack up your valuables, chain the wife to a post in the basement and flee until the storm passes and any power loss is restored.

Okay, maybe it wasn't all seriousness. :D

 

[RU4Real]

I will say this, to add to / augment what @knightfan7 said... There's a difference between being in the path of a storm surge and being in a flood zone. Storm surge is scary shit. You don't want that.

I'd be more concerned for Jacksonville Beach than upriver Charleston at this point, because you've got water on 2 sides. One of the hard lessons learned by folks during Sandy is that the water can come just as easily from the back side as from the ocean.

In either case, if you're the least bit concerned for your safety then the best option is to bail.

 

[RuRats27]

We don't have basements in Charleston. Gotta find another place to put her.

Thanks all. We've got a room in Charlotte so begrudgingly I'll take the family and head up there for a few days. Hopefully it's all for nothing.

 

[RU4Real]

We don't have basements in Charleston. Gotta find another place to put her.

Thanks all. We've got a room in Charlotte so begrudgingly I'll take the family and head up there for a few days. Hopefully it's all for nothing.

Probably a wise choice, especially given the family consideration.

If it were just me, I'd probably ride it out in your position. Gas the genny, load the guns, top off the bourbon supply... But ya gotta watch out for your people.

 

[RU85inFla]

I will say this, to add to / augment what @knightfan7 said... There's a difference between being in the path of a storm surge and being in a flood zone. Storm surge is scary shit. You don't want that.

I'd be more concerned for Jacksonville Beach than upriver Charleston at this point, because you've got water on 2 sides. One of the hard lessons learned by folks during Sandy is that the water can come just as easily from the back side as from the ocean.

In either case, if you're the least bit concerned for your safety then the best option is to bail.

Actually the worst hurricane flooding here was caused by storm winds not allowing the St. John's to drain into the ocean. The flooding was 10 miles up river.

Locally they are saying 80 mph winds so that's reason enough to go.

 

[Scarlet4ever]

Am I off in looking at the latest forecasts? It seems like Sunday would be impacted more than Saturday based on the current tracking, no? Hoping for a dry or semi-dry tailgate and game.

 

[mikemarc1]

Cone of uncertainty moving away from NJ. Expect it to me even further south - east tomorrow.

 

[RU848789]

Just got home from an awesome Bottle Rockets show in Metuchen. Anyway, the 11 pm advisory is out and it shows that the hurricane has weakened some, as expected with max sustained winds down to 130 mph. The storm is expected to maintain close to 130 mph strength (strong cat 3) through the Bahamas and up most of the FL coast, until and unless it makes a landfall and weakens some.

The new track has the storm just about making landfall in the West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach area (my dad lives in that area in Vero Beach and I'm urging him to get out of Dodge - won't be a hard sell as he stayed through Frances and Jeanne in 2004 and said he'd never do it again) and and continuing up the FL coast and then bending along the SC/NC coast, but further offshore than before and, as expected, the NHC has finally made the big shift eastward after the coast of NC, keeping the storm 200+ miles off the DE/NJ coasts, as seen in all of the major models.

They also slowed the storm down some, which is good news for the game, as the storm is now in the same place at 8 pm Saturday (NC/SC border) as it was earlier today at 8 am Saturday. Therefore, the storm will be about 200 miles further away from RU at game time, which bodes well for there being less or no rain for the tailgates and maybe even the game. Let's see what the NWS has to say - I would guess they'll downgrade the rain possibilities significantly. We'll see at 4 am...

 

[ArminRU]

:pray:

 

[RutgersRaRa]

Looks like it might actually hit FL now, then rebound way East?

Well this is good news for the game. OTOH, I am in Florida for the next couple of weeks so it could get interdasting.

 

[RUchip]

I'm about two miles from the Wando River. I'm in a SHFZ (AE) but I'm relatively close (two blocks) from the start of the X500 zone. During the rains from Hurricane Joaquim we didn't flood.

New development...so no large trees or any falling hazards near the house.

Don't risk it. I have friends on James Island leaving tonight. As you know 10 minutes of rain can flood Charleston. Wind is going to be near 130mph by you. 99% you're going to have no power for several days

 

[mildone]

We don't have basements in Charleston. Gotta find another place to put her.

Thanks all. We've got a room in Charlotte so begrudgingly I'll take the family and head up there for a few days. Hopefully it's all for nothing.

Good choice. Be safe.

 

[mildone]

Well this is good news for the game. OTOH, I am in Florida for the next couple of weeks so it could get interdasting.

It's not safe to stay there. Much safer to head up this way, do some tailgating, watch the game in person. Make it so.

 

[RU848789]

Am I off in looking at the latest forecasts? It seems like Sunday would be impacted more than Saturday based on the current tracking, no? Hoping for a dry or semi-dry tailgate and game.

The storm, itself, is forecast to be closer to us on Sunday than Saturday, but the interaction with approaching trough/cold front coming across from the Pacific Northwest this week has the potential to cause a predecessor rain event, which occurs when a tropical system interacts with a frontal system, sending mositure well N or NW of the storm's center. This is more likely to occur when the trough and Matthew are at similar longitudes and that will be on Saturday, possibly allowing the tropical moisture feed from Matthew to head hundreds of miles north of the actual storm to potentially affect us on Saturday night into Sunday. However, that interaction is not a given and it's possible we get less rainfall than some models suggest on Saturday - and these models were showing several inches of rain 12-24 hours ago and are now showing much less than that. Let's see how the NWS responds, as they hinted at much less rainfall if the track was out to sea. There is hope for mostly or even completely dry tailgates.

 

[RU848789]

Don't risk it. I have friends on James Island leaving tonight. As you know 10 minutes of rain can flood Charleston. Wind is going to be near 130mph by you. 99% you're going to have no power for several days

Not exactly. Winds are forecast to have dropped to about 115 mph by the time it reaches the Charleston area and the forecast track now has the storm further offshore than earlier today (now 25-50 miles offshore). If you have the luxury of making your getaway as late as Thursday morning (for a Sat morning storm arrival), I'd say to wait until then, as it's quite possible the track will be even further offshore, as the Euro now shows.

This is likely to be a far cry from Hugo for Charleston, as Hugo was a direct hit from a strengthening storm approaching from SE to NW directly at Charleston. Not saying people shouldn't evacuate if serious impacts look likely, but if you can make the decision a day or two from now, when there will be better intel, why not do so?

 

[AshSaturday]

Hi weather gurus. I'm down here in Charleston, SC and I'm trying to get a feel for this storm. Gov is ordering an evacuation of all the coastal counties including Mount Pleasant where I live. Right now we plan on following that order but it just kills me to abandon ship and head to North Carolina. Is that just hubris on my part or should I heed the states warning and get out for a few days? Any help would be appreciated.

RUn

 

[brgRC90]

I'd say if Katrina taught us anything it's to respect nature and err on the side of caution. A thousand people lost their lives.

 

[mikemarc1]

Just an absolute incredible model run tonight of the GFS.

Will be a disaster if it comes to fruition in Florida, but it leaves us bone dry. The Hurricane actually hits Florida, goes out to sea, loops around and actually hits Florida once again as still a category 3 hurricane. Yes, most likely wont happen. But an unreal model run.

 

[RU848789]

Just an absolute incredible model run tonight of the GFS.

Will be a disaster if it comes to fruition in Florida, but it leaves us bone dry. The Hurricane actually hits Florida, goes out to sea, loops around and actually hits Florida once again as still a category 3 hurricane. Yes, most likely wont happen. But an unreal model run.

Odd that your clip doesn't show the last 4-5 days of the GFS (days 10-15), where it almost hits Florida a 2nd time after the big loop and then screams NE from FL to Canada in 2 days. Insane run and the Euro still does a 3/4 loop also around the same time (Days 6-10), although it doesn't come that close to FL the 2nd time around on days 7-8 (and doesn't head into the GOM like it did earlier today) - it heads to a point ~200 miles east of Norfolk at Day 10, heading NE, when the model run ends. Maybe a crazy loop is what's really going to happen.

Bottom line is that a run up the coast at/near NJ this weekend (Days 4-5 now) is an essentially dead idea, which is not going to happen. Crazy shit might happen after Day 5-6, like we're seeing with the loops, but at least the storm isn't coming here for this weekend.

No idea what the NWS is going to forecast for Saturday now, although all of the models basically show Matthew being near or a bit south of the NC coast on Saturday, before the wild divergence we're seeing after that. That position on Saturday will likely be a close call for the game with the potential for some rain to little or no rain, depending on the interaction with the trough/cold front approaching the east coast on Saturday.

 

[AshSaturday]

Well at this point THANK GOD it appears NJ won't experience a direct hit (maybe 10-15% for AC) and it looks a tad better for the tailgating and game-but IFFY. NONE of the speghetti models have the hurricane.

Those of you who will be affected on the Southeast coast God Bless. If you can afford it definitely go inland-better safe than sorry. Just saw a documentary on a family with special needs babies who waited in such. Got caught in massive traffic and had to be rescued. Don't wait until the last minute for ANYTHING!

 

[RU848789]

Well at this point THANK GOD it appears NJ won't experience a direct hit (maybe 10-15% for AC) and it looks a tad better for the tailgating and game-but IFFY. NONE of the speghetti models have the hurricane.

Those of you who will be affected on the Southeast coast God Bless. If you can afford it definitely go inland-better safe than sorry. Just saw a documentary on a family with special needs babies who waited in such. Got caught in massive traffic and had to be rescued. Don't wait until the last minute for ANYTHING!

Just because it's on the fringe of the NHC cone, which will be updated shortly to not be in the cone, AC is NOT being hit by Matthew. No chance.

 

[greenknight]

Looks like the loop around and coming back to Florida could be plausible.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Odd that your clip doesn't show the last 4-5 days of the GFS (days 10-15), where it almost hits Florida a 2nd time after the big loop and then screams NE from FL to Canada in 2 days. Insane run and the Euro still does a 3/4 loop also around the same time (Days 6-10), although it doesn't come that close to FL the 2nd time around on days 7-8 (and doesn't head into the GOM like it did earlier today) - it heads to a point ~200 miles east of Norfolk at Day 10, heading NE, when the model run ends. Maybe a crazy loop is what's really going to happen.

Bottom line is that a run up the coast at/near NJ this weekend (Days 4-5 now) is an essentially dead idea, which is not going to happen. Crazy shit might happen after Day 5-6, like we're seeing with the loops, but at least the storm isn't coming here for this weekend.

No idea what the NWS is going to forecast for Saturday now, although all of the models basically show Matthew being near or a bit south of the NC coast on Saturday, before the wild divergence we're seeing after that. That position on Saturday will likely be a close call for the game with the potential for some rain to little or no rain, depending on the interaction with the trough/cold front approaching the east coast on Saturday.

The model having Matthew hit florida twice assumes the trough slides north into Canada - no longer a probability.

 

[RU4Real]

One day closer to game day and both the GFS and Euro are suggesting that this is not our storm.

Could be tough for FL, though.

 

[greenknight]

Imagine the loop around does happen the same Bahama Islands that are getting raked would get hit again

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

We don't have basements in Charleston. Gotta find another place to put her.

Thanks all. We've got a room in Charlotte so begrudgingly I'll take the family and head up there for a few days. Hopefully it's all for nothing.

That "new development" thing also stuck me as "GET OUT"... a home that has survived everything for 50-100 years is one thing.. but building standards have leaned heavily toward fast and cheap here in jersey.. not that the price you end up paying is cheap.. I wonder if it is the same everywhere.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Having been evacuated twice in Monmouth Beach in the early 90ies - due to Nor'easters - I strongly recommend evacuating if where you live is threatened.

 

[RU85inFla]

That "new development" thing also stuck me as "GET OUT"... a home that has survived everything for 50-100 years is one thing.. but building standards have leaned heavily toward fast and cheap here in jersey.. not that the price you end up paying is cheap.. I wonder if it is the same everywhere.

I know in Florida the standards have really gone up in the last 20 years according to my builder friends. I don't know if that makes my new home safe or not though.

 

[rav2003]

My friends in Charleston are having this exact debate. They decided it's better to be safe than sorry and are heading out. My FIL in NC (on the sound) is heading inland as well, with the erosion, the water, and the rain, it's not worth keeping an eye on property when you have the means to be safe elsewhere. Now my Florida people, they're already battening down the hatches, coming in from the keys and hunkering down. I hope everyone gets through this safely.

 

[rmck3233]

Speaking specifically for Tailgate 2PM -7PM, what does the forecast MOST LIKELY look like we should expect? - Light Rain? Heavy Rain? Gusting Winds? Clear?

and the Gametime: 7-10PM - anything different than the previous hours during tailgating time?

Trying to figure out if it is worth the risk/hassle of coming in from the city (taking public transportation there and back).

 

[knightfan7]

]

Speaking specifically for Tailgate 2PM -7PM, what does the forecast MOST LIKELY look like we should expect? - Light Rain? Heavy Rain? Gusting Winds? Clear?

and the Gametime: 7-10PM - anything different than the previous hours during tailgating time?

Trying to figure out if it is worth the risk/hassle of coming in from the city (taking public transportation there and back).

Not an expert in any way but NWS showing a chance of showers all day. Thinking back to put it in RU football terms it reminds me of the kind of forecast/weather we saw vs PSU in '14.

 

[retired711]

New briefing from NWS (10 a.m.) says storm is not a threat to our area; models have converged on Matthew going out to sea off North Carolina. We will have rain sometime this weekend.

http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf