OT: Matthew Hurricane
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
They have already boarded up all the windows and most of the doors. They are only leaving the emergency fire exits unboarded and they all lock from the inside and are guarded at all times. Anyways, I'm not looking to argue about it, it is what it is, shelters should be more accommodating to pets.
Just saw some gov't official who said "this storm will kill you"
Jacksonville Mayor much more reasonable "No need to panic, don't be afraid, just be prepared". And then stressed evacuation.
While the first guy is, imo, a fear monger, I do wonder if some people need that level of hyperbole in order to get the message.
Jacksonville Mayor much more reasonable "No need to panic, don't be afraid, just be prepared". And then stressed evacuation.
While the first guy is, imo, a fear monger, I do wonder if some people need that level of hyperbole in order to get the message.
The level of fear - and fearmongering - in our society continues to reach new heights. CNN's web site has a huge, bold headline at the top of the page reading GET OUT NOW.
Really? What is it about "now" that's left us unable to deal with things that used to be fairly run-of-the-mill? This isn't Camille, it's not Katrina, it's not even Andrew.
And for the record, the quote came from Florida governor Rick Scott.
If you think this storm is on a par with Camille and Katrina then you don't know much about storms.
If it hits FL as a Cat 4 it will be a marginal Cat 4. Camille was a huge 5. It had a central pressure of 900mb at landfall and sustained winds of 175 mph. It was huge. It impacted the coast perpendicularly - which matters a great deal. Storm surge on the Mississippi coast was 24 feet. It wiped out everything for nearly a mile inland.
As for Katrina... Nothing need be said:
Which is fine, a pretty fair statement. A little different then "this storm will kill you".
Just asking a question killer.:smiley:If you think this storm is on a par with Camille and Katrina then you don't know much about storms.
If it hits FL as a Cat 4 it will be a marginal Cat 4. Camille was a huge 5. It had a central pressure of 900mb at landfall and sustained winds of 175 mph. It was huge. It impacted the coast perpendicularly - which matters a great deal. Storm surge on the Mississippi coast was 24 feet. It wiped out everything for nearly a mile inland.
As for Katrina... Nothing need be said:
Really don't know Camille at all, remember Anderw vaguely, Katrina I thought was a Cat3(?) but huge with a really deep low pressure, and thus huge storm surge which when travelling over land that is at, near, or even below sea level was what really made that one so bad.
And for what it's worth, this thing being a "marginal" cat 4? Sandy wasn't even hurricane force. So I don't see that as a reasonable down play.
And even if this isn't one of those all time destructive storms, is this one not that much of a concern?
Just wondering why you think this thing is not that bad.
He said that one day after telling everyone to stock up on food and supplies because we could be stranded in our homes.
His message was not so solid during those 48 hours imo.
And if he told people to evacuate, and then it went north, people would freak about that.
Predicting the future, especially the movement of storms, is not that easy, thus messages can get cloudy.
Sandy's impact wasn't wind, either. Hell, it wasn't even rain. It was water, as you'll recall. It was a thousand miles of fetch, right up onto the NJ coast, driving a storm surge between 8 (Atlantic County) and 18 feet (western Raritan Bay).
Katrina was a Cat 5, with a MCP of 902mb and sustained winds of 175 mph, at its strongest. It was Cat 3 at landfall, but by that time was also the largest hurricane on record (as seen in the picture) and the storm surge was significant.
It might be a bit over the top, but they want people to take it seriously.
I think it was the AC mayor that down played the dangers with Sandy and it made things a lot worse.
Well yeah this is what I'm getting at. With those 2 storms it was more storm surge then wind.
I've seen 6-9' for Surge predicted for a large stretch of coast line. In addition to 10+ inches of rain(something that Sandy did not deliver at least where I'm at).
Do you not expect a storm surge here? Or is the terrain just much different? (I do assume this plays into it significantly).
And while Mathew may not be as large as Katrina, if it grates the coast as predicted could it not have as wide spread an effect?
Should be noted that Matthew was also a cat 5 at one point.
Assuming (just for the sake of the discussion) that the projected path verifies, then the wind component acting on the entire FL coast will be out of the east. The velocities will be lower than storm maximum, by maybe 10% and the lack of fetch will help keep the surge down, somewhat.
A 6-9' surge really isn't a whole hell of a lot. There will be some flooding, for sure, but it won't be on a par with the really major storms.
If you think back to, say, Andrew - most of the damage to southern FL from that storm was wind damage. There wasn't a lot of flood damage at all, and Andrew was a bigger storm.
Right now NHC is projecting the bulk of the storm surge from Matthew to impact Merritt Island. Fortunately, there's not a whole lot there compared to other parts of the Florida coast. There's a good inundation mapping tool here, on NHC's page.
I spent a year in Biloxi around 1981, a dozen years after Camille. There were still boats (in one case, a rather large ship) on the northern side of Highway 90, nearly a mile from the beach.
Because people are stupid. You need to put it terms they'll understand.
If all these gov't officials are going overboard so what? It's a lot easier to say you overreacted but kept everyone safe than underreacted and put the welfare of those you're supposed to look out for in jeopardy.
If I recall, when Katrina was on the way, the people of New Orleans were told this is the big one, everyone get out of town, and STILL many people didn't take the warning seriously. No doubt they were some of the people camped out on roof tops for days with Help! painted on whatever shingles were left on their roofs--if not one of the bodies floating in the filthy water. I have no problem with leaders urging people to err on the side of caution.
My magic number is 13 feet above sea level 150 feet from the dunes which might be 3-4 feet higher than my garage and front door. I'm crossing my fingers big time.
The issue is how close the eye is. 10 miles in the wrong direction will make a huge difference and I'm screwed no matter if it's a 3 or a 4. Need the eye to go west. Floyd was 100 miles out years ago and tore the beaches and piers up. You never know.
The issue is how close the eye is. 10 miles in the wrong direction will make a huge difference and I'm screwed no matter if it's a 3 or a 4. Need the eye to go west. Floyd was 100 miles out years ago and tore the beaches and piers up. You never know.
The Cat 4 winds only extend about 10 miles from the eye and full hurricane winds 40 miles from center. Catastrophic impact will be very localized if anything. Most of the FL coast will get Tropical storm winds but not as bad as their reporting. Still enough to knock out power and make life miserable for a lot of people.
Hope I am wrong but
This is the worst possible projected track - as it will scrape the coast from Miami to Jacksonville and area that is densely develop. The potential damage will be historic. The Florida coast is facing all three hurricane menaces of surge, wind and rain. The storm is enormous and will have effects far inland - it cannot not be underestimated!
Well this is actually alot worse than landfall ing. This hurricane is up to 140 and scraping right up against the coastline for hundreds of miles. There will be a boatload of devistation up and down. This will be one of the costliest storms to ever hit the US if not the costliest let alone it's going to come back and probably wack em agan same time next week. This is not commonplace
My partner is in Wellington and evacuated they are expecting 100+ winds. He's at his condo in Miami. 70 mph winD's expected there. That was before it went up to 140mph
Huh? this sucker's going to ride up almost the whole eastern side of Florida at Cat3/Cat4 strength with the center just off shore. Nothing localized about that.
If there is doubt on what the wind will be ten miles in here is a probability.
Purple is bad.
To be clear, those are tropical storm force winds, i.e. 39+ mph.
What's not being accounted for, and what will be interesting to watch, is the effect of having the entire western hemisphere of the storm over land for much of its run up the coast. Matthew will start ingesting a good bit of moisture-starved air and once that starts wrapping into the core there should be a noticeble impact.
Speaking of Camille, I was at Tyndall AFB in Panama City, FL that summer - the storm was said to be headed our way and then changed course and hit Biloxi. A bunch of us that had never been through a big hurricane were actually disappointed.
The next summer I spent a week in Biloxi at Keesler AFB and just couldn't believe the damage, a full year later. I remember a sizable freighter high and dry on the beach and light poles from a destroyed gas station bent at a 90 deg angle. That sure changed my view of wanting to experience a major hurricane.
The next summer I spent a week in Biloxi at Keesler AFB and just couldn't believe the damage, a full year later. I remember a sizable freighter high and dry on the beach and light poles from a destroyed gas station bent at a 90 deg angle. That sure changed my view of wanting to experience a major hurricane.
The probability is referencing a floor or minimum for wind speed not a ceiling! Meaning at least that speed.
That chart is useless. Purple is a high probability of winds over 40 mph. I stood in winds over 40 mph this morning in Jacksonville. No threat of damage.
The issue is winds over 80-100 mph and prolonged. We won't know those factors fir a while so it's real pre-mature to conclude levels of disaster at this point.
The issue is winds over 80-100 mph and prolonged. We won't know those factors fir a while so it's real pre-mature to conclude levels of disaster at this point.
Watching the buoy data, Port Everglades Channel is currently 70 miles WNW of the center of Matthew at this time and is reporting sustained winds of 11 mph. Settlement Point, Bahamas is currently 70 miles NNW of the storm's center and is reporting sustained winds of close to 50 mph.
