Did a 105 once and hope it is my last. House was rocking and rolling and you fear for your family. Only grandma slept through it. One block over so many trees down looked like a war zone, suspect a little tornado action there.
OT: Matthew Hurricane
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
My father rode out Alicia in Galveston back in the '80's and said he would never do it again - supposedly 115 mph winds at landfall.
I get it, but I do find it funny how gov't officials talk to the general public.
A montage of Weather Channel ism's would be classic too.
The only time I was in town here for a hurricane was Belle in the 70's.Wind gusts were in the 75-85 range iirc. Didn't do much damage in this area as it stayed just offshore and moved fast. I do remember being young and stupid, standing outside my grandfather's house in town feeling the wind, when a large tree branch came crashing down about 20 feet away. I immediately went back inside and respected these storms from that day on.
Ay, I was working a shrimp boat off the coast of NOLA during Katrina, it got so hairy that the shrimp were jumping into our nets to save themselves.
I took a pic of one of the bigger guys we caught that night
I took a pic of one of the bigger guys we caught that night
You are such an oxymoron.Ay, I was working a shrimp boat off the coast of NOLA during Katrina, it got so hairy that the shrimp were jumping into our nets to save themselves.
I took a pic of one of the bigger guys we caught that night
(that is fake right?)
Anyone mention this actual and evil-looking picture of Matthew shot in infared by satellite earlier today?
http://www.wisn.com/news/infared-satellite-image-shows-evillooking-hurricane-matthew/41971116
Ay, I was working a shrimp boat off the coast of NOLA during Katrina, it got so hairy that the shrimp were jumping into our nets to save themselves.
I took a pic of one of the bigger guys we caught that night
FOR THOSE WITH LOVES ONES NOT WANTING TO GET OUT-THE WEATHER CHANEL JUST HAD AN ANNOUNCER KIND OF DO A STAND UP EDITORIAL ON DEFINITELY GET OUT! THESOUTHEST COAST HAS NEVER BEEN HT DIRECTLY BY SUCH A POWERFUL STORM. THERES GOING TO BE A LARGE LOSS OF LIFE. POWER WILL LIKELY BE OUT FOR WEEKS IN MANY AREAS. ONCE HUNKERED DOWN DO NOT MOVE OUTSIDE UNTL AUTHORITIES SAY ITS OK! DO NOT STAY ANYWHERE NEAR WATER AS THE STORM SURGE WILL KILL MANY!
WHEN YOU LEAVE TAKE PETS, MEDICATIONS AND IMPT DOCUMENTS WITH YOU AS YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET BACK FOR WEEKS! NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USING WORKS LIKE DEADLY AND CATASTROPHIC
WHEN YOU LEAVE TAKE PETS, MEDICATIONS AND IMPT DOCUMENTS WITH YOU AS YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET BACK FOR WEEKS! NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USING WORKS LIKE DEADLY AND CATASTROPHIC
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Anyone mention this actual and evil-looking picture of Matthew shot in infared by satellite earlier today?
http://www.wisn.com/news/infared-satellite-image-shows-evillooking-hurricane-matthew/41971116
Nothing wrong with Satan's child, Natas
I totally agree with you that the storms impact will be huge - most of FL for that matter. Believe me, even Cat 1 winds are pretty terrifying. I was referring to catastrophic damage - areas that will actually experience 140+ mph winds (which will destroy buildings) will be localized given the relatively small core of the storm. It's not like the whole east coast of FL will destroyed given the latest path. Messed up and without power - very likely but not destroyed.
Just took a slightly more northerly turn and according to the met's on that network a large area of dry air near the center. No idea what the dry air means other than it could weaken it a bit I guess. The turn if it holds could be major for the Fla coast, no?
About the storm surge.. I am under the impression that the storm pushes water in front of it... particularly to the top-right of center of its direction.. the longer it goes in a straight line, the more water builds up.. when a long straight run ends up hitting land perpendicularly... the surge is big.
This storm's weaker left side will be raking the Florida coast.. lots of wind, little water.
But I am wondering what happens if it slams straight into the GA-SC border area.. wouldn't that end up being a large surges? or is it that the open ocean to the right of it gives the water someplace to go.. something much smaller in the gulf.. where Camile and Katrina did so much damage.
This storm's weaker left side will be raking the Florida coast.. lots of wind, little water.
But I am wondering what happens if it slams straight into the GA-SC border area.. wouldn't that end up being a large surges? or is it that the open ocean to the right of it gives the water someplace to go.. something much smaller in the gulf.. where Camile and Katrina did so much damage.
My buddy who lives in a 3rd floor condo on the ocean in Vero Beach regained his senses and has checked into an airport hotel in Orlando today.
But my wife's friend who lives close to the water in Charleston SC refuses to evacuate with her 2 year old Boxer dog.
We shall see.
The peninsula portion of Charleston will flood its just a matter of how much.
Right now the storm appears to start its turn to sea right at or below Charleston. The Governor is saying that the southern SC coast, south of Charleston, will experience storm surge that was worse than during Hugo.
I'm north of Charleston in Mount Pleasant but evacuated to Charlotte. Seems like a lot of the fence sitters are heading out of town now.
Right now the storm appears to start its turn to sea right at or below Charleston. The Governor is saying that the southern SC coast, south of Charleston, will experience storm surge that was worse than during Hugo.
I'm north of Charleston in Mount Pleasant but evacuated to Charlotte. Seems like a lot of the fence sitters are heading out of town now.
Recapping some of the buoy data:
- Settlement Point, Bahamas: Winds NE (040) at 65 kts (75 mph) gusting to 76 kts (88 mph). 40 miles NNW of the storm center.
- Lake Worth Pier, FL: Winds N (010) at 40 kts (47 mph) gusting to 46 kts (54 mph). 60 miles WNW of the storm center.
- ICON (Integrated Coral Observation Network): Winds WNW (300) at 19 kts (22 mph) gusting to 27 kts (31 mph). 70 miles W of the storm center.
- Florida Institute of Technology: Winds NE (040) at 23 kts (26.5 mph). 110 miles NW of the storm center. Significant Wave Height 9.2 feet.
I have family in Little River who are staying. Think that will be a problem? I don't know the area at all as they just moved down somewhat recently.
As of now I don't think so. Hell if I could do it over again I may have stayed looking at the course right now and I'm only 11 miles north of Charleston. It looks like the storm may start it's loop right at or before Charleston harbor. Meaning that Little River would be spared the really worst of it.
I just saw an internal forecast for Mount Pleasant town employees that shows expectations are for much less of an impact than is being talked about on tv.
Yeah that's what I did. Im hopeful we'll be able to head back late Saturday or Sunday.
Been crazy busy today - didn't even check the interwebz until an hour ago. Anyway, here's the note I just sent out. Might be a little late, but some might be interested.
Hopefully, given the vast public attention on the storm’s impact on the Bahamas and imminent impact on FL (and GA/SC/NC), everyone is generally up on Matthew, so this note is more to provide a few insights about the storm.
Currently, Freeport and Grand Bahama Island are being crushed by the eyewall of Matthew and its 130 mph winds (fortunately down a bit from today’s 140 mph wind max), although 130 mph is still low end Cat 4 strength, as it approaches the FL coast. Looks like points from about West Palm Beach on southward will be spared the worst effects, as the storm is currently 70 miles east of WPB and won’t get any closer, so they’ll barely get any hurricane force gusts, as hurricane force winds only extend 60 miles out from the storm’s center (tropical storm force winds, i.e., 39-73 mph, extent out about 185 miles).
It looks like the worst effects of the storm will be felt from about Fort Pierce on northward, as Matthew should be within 25 miles of Fort Pierce as it nears the FL coast, such that the western edge of the eyewall, the area of most intense winds and precipitation banding will reach the immediate coast. Matthew will then ride up the Florida coast edging closer and closer to landfall, until it likely makes landfall somewhere around Melbourne, with Cape Canaveral (which houses the Kennedy Space Center), which juts out about 10 miles into the Atlantic, being the most likely place for landfall and the absolute worst conditions.
Unfortunately, unlike most storms that make landfall and plow inland, weakening considerably once the warm core energy source (the ocean) is lost, this storm will have its center either just off the coast or barely on the coast/inland for possibly a few hundred miles, only weakening slowly, leading to major to catastrophic impacts over a far larger area than 99% of hurricanes – Matthew could still be a 115 mph hurricane when it reaches as far north as Jacksonville, which would make it the first major hurricane to hit there since 1898. In fact, this track is unprecedented in FL history for a major hurricane, as every other “coastal scraper” was much weaker than Matthew.
While the winds are what people often think of as the most damaging part of a hurricane, the storm surge is, by far, the most dangerous part of any storm, as ~90% of deaths occur due to flooding/storm surge – and this track, with a relatively slow moving (13 mph) powerful storm, is the worst outcome possible, as we’ll see major to historic storm surges of 5-10 feet from at least Fort Pierce to Jacksonville and even into coastal GA and SC (the storm will not come very close to the NC coast). Given how much of the FL coast is at elevations of <10 feet, coastal flooding will likely be major to historic for much of FL and GA (and very significant for SC, although not as bad as for previous storms, like Hugo).
Needless to say, this is a dangerous to life-threatening storm for anyone in the warning areas (north of West Palm) and especially for anyone within 10-20 miles of the coast all the way up to GA. Further inland will still see hurricane force wind gusts and major rains (10” or more anywhere within 20 miles of the coast and 5-10” further inland). There could be significant flooding from rainfall almost anywhere in Florida. Last but not least, there is the risk of tornadoes near the coast, although the one plus of a storm paralleling the coast is that the tornado threat is much less than normal, since tornadoes usually form in the right front quadrant (NE quadrant for this storm), which is mostly offshore for Matthew.
Beyond Florida and GA, Matthew looks to keep paralleling the SC coast, although it will likely be a bit weaker (90 mph or less) and a bit offshore (25-50 miles, although that could change) from the GA/SC line to Charleston, so hopefully those areas will be spared the worst winds and storm surges. After that, it really looks like the storm will do close to a full loop-de-loop, as originally forecast by the Euro, first two days ago, arriving back in the Bahamas and close to South Florida at Day 5, although as a weak tropical storm – and the uncertainty on the track at that point is very high. One little tidbit: there's also Hurricane Nicole meandering around south of Bermuda (85 mph winds) and as Matthew does its loop, they'll likely be close enough for the Fujiwhara Effect to come into play at least for awhile, where two tropical systems tend to rotate around a common midpoint. Always fun to see.
Crazy stuff. And the best news, probably, is my dad, with a little prodding, evacuated his house in Vero Beach to stay with friends well inland. :>)
Some good links…
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/J...-potentially-disastrous-matthew-rolls-toward-
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154742.shtml?5day#contents
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48950-category-4-major-hurricane-matthew/?page=116
Hopefully, given the vast public attention on the storm’s impact on the Bahamas and imminent impact on FL (and GA/SC/NC), everyone is generally up on Matthew, so this note is more to provide a few insights about the storm.
Currently, Freeport and Grand Bahama Island are being crushed by the eyewall of Matthew and its 130 mph winds (fortunately down a bit from today’s 140 mph wind max), although 130 mph is still low end Cat 4 strength, as it approaches the FL coast. Looks like points from about West Palm Beach on southward will be spared the worst effects, as the storm is currently 70 miles east of WPB and won’t get any closer, so they’ll barely get any hurricane force gusts, as hurricane force winds only extend 60 miles out from the storm’s center (tropical storm force winds, i.e., 39-73 mph, extent out about 185 miles).
It looks like the worst effects of the storm will be felt from about Fort Pierce on northward, as Matthew should be within 25 miles of Fort Pierce as it nears the FL coast, such that the western edge of the eyewall, the area of most intense winds and precipitation banding will reach the immediate coast. Matthew will then ride up the Florida coast edging closer and closer to landfall, until it likely makes landfall somewhere around Melbourne, with Cape Canaveral (which houses the Kennedy Space Center), which juts out about 10 miles into the Atlantic, being the most likely place for landfall and the absolute worst conditions.
Unfortunately, unlike most storms that make landfall and plow inland, weakening considerably once the warm core energy source (the ocean) is lost, this storm will have its center either just off the coast or barely on the coast/inland for possibly a few hundred miles, only weakening slowly, leading to major to catastrophic impacts over a far larger area than 99% of hurricanes – Matthew could still be a 115 mph hurricane when it reaches as far north as Jacksonville, which would make it the first major hurricane to hit there since 1898. In fact, this track is unprecedented in FL history for a major hurricane, as every other “coastal scraper” was much weaker than Matthew.
While the winds are what people often think of as the most damaging part of a hurricane, the storm surge is, by far, the most dangerous part of any storm, as ~90% of deaths occur due to flooding/storm surge – and this track, with a relatively slow moving (13 mph) powerful storm, is the worst outcome possible, as we’ll see major to historic storm surges of 5-10 feet from at least Fort Pierce to Jacksonville and even into coastal GA and SC (the storm will not come very close to the NC coast). Given how much of the FL coast is at elevations of <10 feet, coastal flooding will likely be major to historic for much of FL and GA (and very significant for SC, although not as bad as for previous storms, like Hugo).
Needless to say, this is a dangerous to life-threatening storm for anyone in the warning areas (north of West Palm) and especially for anyone within 10-20 miles of the coast all the way up to GA. Further inland will still see hurricane force wind gusts and major rains (10” or more anywhere within 20 miles of the coast and 5-10” further inland). There could be significant flooding from rainfall almost anywhere in Florida. Last but not least, there is the risk of tornadoes near the coast, although the one plus of a storm paralleling the coast is that the tornado threat is much less than normal, since tornadoes usually form in the right front quadrant (NE quadrant for this storm), which is mostly offshore for Matthew.
Beyond Florida and GA, Matthew looks to keep paralleling the SC coast, although it will likely be a bit weaker (90 mph or less) and a bit offshore (25-50 miles, although that could change) from the GA/SC line to Charleston, so hopefully those areas will be spared the worst winds and storm surges. After that, it really looks like the storm will do close to a full loop-de-loop, as originally forecast by the Euro, first two days ago, arriving back in the Bahamas and close to South Florida at Day 5, although as a weak tropical storm – and the uncertainty on the track at that point is very high. One little tidbit: there's also Hurricane Nicole meandering around south of Bermuda (85 mph winds) and as Matthew does its loop, they'll likely be close enough for the Fujiwhara Effect to come into play at least for awhile, where two tropical systems tend to rotate around a common midpoint. Always fun to see.
Crazy stuff. And the best news, probably, is my dad, with a little prodding, evacuated his house in Vero Beach to stay with friends well inland. :>)
Some good links…
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/J...-potentially-disastrous-matthew-rolls-toward-
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154742.shtml?5day#contents
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48950-category-4-major-hurricane-matthew/?page=116
I'm flying out to Bermuda next Saturday, the 15th. Obviously the focus should be on Matthew and it's impact on the coast but if you guys have anything interesting to share on Nicole impacting Bermuda or anything coming up behind it, it would be greatly appreciated.
11 pm update: pressure dropped all day, but just bumped up a bit, indicating weakening - was down to 934 mbar and is now 939 mbar; winds still listed as 130 mph (Norcross on TWC, who is superb, thought they'd come down a little). He said the energy of the storm has spread out some, with a bit weaker winds, but over a larger area (so the same sum of total kinetic energy), which does happen sometimes as storms near landfall.
However, the storm's center is looking to be staying a bit further off the coast right now than originally thought - and I just saw the cone and the center is now expected to stay off the coast perhaps for the entire ride up the coast, i.e., maybe no landfall. That would be huge in reducing the winds and rain and storm surge at least somewhat. NHC site is down - I'm getting the info from TWC, who does have it directly from the NHC. It might cause people to not heed the next warning, though, but it's still great news for public safety.
However, the storm's center is looking to be staying a bit further off the coast right now than originally thought - and I just saw the cone and the center is now expected to stay off the coast perhaps for the entire ride up the coast, i.e., maybe no landfall. That would be huge in reducing the winds and rain and storm surge at least somewhat. NHC site is down - I'm getting the info from TWC, who does have it directly from the NHC. It might cause people to not heed the next warning, though, but it's still great news for public safety.
Wouldn't a landfall reduce the strength of the storm somewhat?
Yes, I get it's good news that it's not making landfall, but staying in the ocean will allow it to get stronger, no?
Jet stream will break it down, is what I think I just heard.
Always possible, but with much of the circulation over land, inevitably some drier air gets ingested into the storm, plus wind shear is forecast to increase some over the next day or so, both of which would be expected to weaken the storm or at least not let it strengthen.
The eye is of the storm is quite small 20 miles in diameter - that is where the crazy winds reside 130 plus mph's. If the eye stays offshore say 50 or 100 miles - you won't get hit with the crazy winds.
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