OT: Matthew Hurricane
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
Aight, my criticism is of the predictions that were given with such certainty just 20 minutes ago. Most destructive storm in history. Now they won't know what happened for 10 years? Well maybe they will know by then.
Sorry but I've been watching this all day. I've been inundated with hyperbole.
Keep in mind 9 out of 10 hurricane deaths are due to storm surge not the wind...so it will be pretty bad on the coast regardless and no power - sucks!
And I suppose if authorities didn't hype the danger of a hurricane and it turned out worse than expected the same people complaining about too much hype would complain about not enough hype. Some people just want to jump all over others actually trying to get stuff done.
Or they can just give us predictions and the different possibilities instead of "This storm will kill you".
and look Im watching TWC, and CNN a little, and so my critique is of them and not the entirety of the meteorology community. NOAA gives a good honest prediction.
The updated death count in Haiti is 339. And people think the Florida authorities overreacted??????
3:30Am now, Over 330 dead in Haiti but some lick SO FAR re Florida. Hasn't made landfall yet and is just skirting the coast. Some eastern Florida towns such as Fort Pierce I think (Hurricane right off Melbourne now) have tropical storm gusts as high as 75 MPH while 11 miles or so to the east there are hurricane gusts of 115+mph. Also the hurricane is now a category 3 vs 4. Looks like at least the southern portion of Florida has dodged a bullet for the most part.
4AM update. Still a DEADLY storm. Top sustaining winds "down" to 120MPH. Again, those top winds are just miles (10-15) off the coast.
250,000+ without power-mostly in Broward and Manatee counties (so far). That's bad but much lower (so far) than the predicted 2.5 mllion made by Florida Power and Light yesterday.
333 dead in Haiti-expected to climb. No reported deaths from the Bahamas or US yet.
THE WORSE IS YET TO COME THOUGH.
250,000+ without power-mostly in Broward and Manatee counties (so far). That's bad but much lower (so far) than the predicted 2.5 mllion made by Florida Power and Light yesterday.
333 dead in Haiti-expected to climb. No reported deaths from the Bahamas or US yet.
THE WORSE IS YET TO COME THOUGH.
I'm sure many people are going to be critical of the NHC, given the outcome over the last several hours, in which the path of the hurricane has been about 20-30 miles further east than modeled earlier today. The problem is that that kind of error is within the error for a 12 hour forecast. With the storm currently about 40 miles east of Melbourne, when the forecast was for it to be about 15 miles east of Melbourne at this time, that small error makes a big difference.
The 100+ mph winds in the western edge of the eyewall are currently only 5-10 miles off the coast - such a close call (and these winds might make it into Cape Canaveral, which juts out about 10 miles into the Atlantic - 80+ mph winds are being reported there now). Nobody on the planet could've predicted, with the model information in hand as of 11 am or even 5 pm today, that the track would be 20-30 miles further offshore than the center line of the forecast envelope (which did include the current track, i.e., the current track is not outside of the "cone of uncertainty" from 5 pm today).
And even though the winds are obviously not what they could have been, the storm surge is not affected nearly as much by a 20-30 mile track error - and the storm surge right at the coast, to be clear, is a greater risk for life and death than the winds. Will be interesting to see how the actual storm surges compare to the forecast. In particular the storm surge predictions of 7-11 feet are unprecedented for the Daytona Beach to Jacksonville and the GA coast areas, which have only experienced a cat 3 storm being this close once in recorded history.(1898 for some of them).
The bottom line is that given the information that was in hand earlier today and yesterday, the evacuations were the right call, even if the most dire predictions don't quite verify.
The 100+ mph winds in the western edge of the eyewall are currently only 5-10 miles off the coast - such a close call (and these winds might make it into Cape Canaveral, which juts out about 10 miles into the Atlantic - 80+ mph winds are being reported there now). Nobody on the planet could've predicted, with the model information in hand as of 11 am or even 5 pm today, that the track would be 20-30 miles further offshore than the center line of the forecast envelope (which did include the current track, i.e., the current track is not outside of the "cone of uncertainty" from 5 pm today).
And even though the winds are obviously not what they could have been, the storm surge is not affected nearly as much by a 20-30 mile track error - and the storm surge right at the coast, to be clear, is a greater risk for life and death than the winds. Will be interesting to see how the actual storm surges compare to the forecast. In particular the storm surge predictions of 7-11 feet are unprecedented for the Daytona Beach to Jacksonville and the GA coast areas, which have only experienced a cat 3 storm being this close once in recorded history.(1898 for some of them).
The bottom line is that given the information that was in hand earlier today and yesterday, the evacuations were the right call, even if the most dire predictions don't quite verify.
5 am update is out and the track was nudged slightly further offshore for the trek from Melbourne (it's about 40 miles E of Melbourne now) to Jacksonville with the storm likely remaining just offshore with the worst winds also remaining just offshore, but the storm surge is still predicted to be in the 7-11 foot range.
Beyond that the storm is also predicted to parallel the GA/SC coasts, also just offshore until about the Charleston area (where winds will still be 90 mph for the hurricane), after which it's supposed to move more towards the east, not coming that close to the NC coast, and then heading SE, then south and then towards the Bahamas as a much weaker tropical storm.
Beyond that the storm is also predicted to parallel the GA/SC coasts, also just offshore until about the Charleston area (where winds will still be 90 mph for the hurricane), after which it's supposed to move more towards the east, not coming that close to the NC coast, and then heading SE, then south and then towards the Bahamas as a much weaker tropical storm.
On a different meteorology note NBC10's Sheena Parveen leaves Philly for the NBC station in DC in January. Yeah, nice to look at, considered to have great met cred, but IMO, she has the on-air personality of golf ball-sized hail and is just not a good explainer of weather compared to others in the Philly market.
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...s_gossip/Sheena-Parveen-is-leaving-NBC10.html
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...s_gossip/Sheena-Parveen-is-leaving-NBC10.html
5 am update is out and the track was nudged slightly further offshore for the trek from Melbourne (it's about 40 miles E of Melbourne now) to Jacksonville with the storm likely remaining just offshore with the worst winds also remaining just offshore, but the storm surge is still predicted to be in the 7-11 foot range.
Beyond that the storm is also predicted to parallel the GA/SC coasts, also just offshore until about the Charleston area (where winds will still be 90 mph for the hurricane), after which it's supposed to move more towards the east, not coming that close to the NC coast, and then heading SE, then south and then towards the Bahamas as a much weaker tropical storm.
@RU848789 what does this mean for saturday here at ru? Still up in the air? Or does this fortuitous move to the east also make our situation better?
Tia
Florida Power and Light via The weather Chanel now reporting over 300,000 (saw as high as 350,000 (Storm totals could reach 5 million total on East coast) without power in Florida. So far Florida avoiding a direct hit/hurricane winds.
Sir Scarlet- as others have reported here and in other thread. The hurricane isn't going to affect us per se. Another front is. From else here the last I saw (still up in air).
.1 inches of rain 2-8PM
.05 inches of rain during game (towards gametime chance of rain decreases 25%
A bit wet but not a total disaster.
Sir Scarlet- as others have reported here and in other thread. The hurricane isn't going to affect us per se. Another front is. From else here the last I saw (still up in air).
.1 inches of rain 2-8PM
.05 inches of rain during game (towards gametime chance of rain decreases 25%
A bit wet but not a total disaster.
It just goes to show you that a few miles off in a prediction can make a big difference.....
As one with family down there right where landfall looked very possible, I am most grateful that the storm veered away a bit, rather than being cynical about forecasters..... Better warned and not have I happen
As one with family down there right where landfall looked very possible, I am most grateful that the storm veered away a bit, rather than being cynical about forecasters..... Better warned and not have I happen
Kind of. Still the possibility our front siphons off some moisture from Matthew and makes the rain here heavier.
Mt. Holly seems to think that possibility is somewhat reduced. They're still saying 50% chance of showers, but the total precip pops are down to less than a tenth of an inch.
Last I saw greater chance of a wet tailgate with likelihood of showers decreasing as we get close to kickoff.
Fortunately since I live in the Jacksonville area this guy has no idea what he is talking about. Current expectations are the beach gets minor to no flooding with flooding occurring along the St. John's and intracoastal.
Last I saw downtown Jacksonville area surge projection was significantly reduced. The greater issues are now further up the coast although St Augustine is flooding pretty badly.
Downtown St. Augustine is pretty low. Ponce De Leon wasn't a foward thinker.
Well I did take Meteorology 101 at Rutgers, and I know you won't dare criticize Rutgers Meteorology department.
But I'm not even criticizing their meteorological abilities. I'm criticizing their presentation of those forecasts.
So add TV production to the list of things I'm phenomenal at.
No, but if someone dies because their oxygen machine went off due to lack of power caused by the storm, you can.
Oxygen concentrator. My father was on one for years. After they had to stay at my place for 10 days during Sandy, they put in an automatic failover generator in the back yard.
Usually people only have so many backup oxygen tanks in the house to use until the power comes back on, and deliveries are hard when roads are closed.
