OT: Snowstorm Friday
- Thread starter mikemarc1
- Start date
Ya know, a little storage care might have mitigated the need for all that labor.
Posted a bit about this in yesterday's storm thread, but with models coming into better agreement on a fairly classic coastal winter storm impacting our area late Thursday night through Friday morning, figured it was time for a thread on this. While all of the models are showing at least some snow (and possibly rain) for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC area, we're still almost 3 days out, so uncertainty is high as it usually is for winter storms this far out.
Depending on how much precip this storm is able to produce (models vary on this), even with a perfect all snow track, which is not a given, this storm could produce anywhere from 2-4" to 4-8" with a high end potential of maybe up to 10" of snow, although that much snow is much more likely towards New England, as the storm looks like it will strengthen more there. However, if the track is more inland, it could be one of those snow to rain scenarios for the 95 corridor/coast with maybe only a few inches before the changeover, but heavier snows inland or if the track is more suppressed, it could be just a few inches of snow for most, especially towards the coast. Plenty of time to iron those details out.
It is worth noting that the NWS, which had a decidedly mixed performance on yesterday's storm (busted for the 95 corridor and everywhere along/north of 195, but did pretty well for most of DE/SNJ), has already put out snowfall maps for only the first half of the storm, i.e, through 7 am Friday, featuring a general 2-4" of snow for most. Good NWS discussion, as well as maps and links below. Stay tuned.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2073-1722-east-coast-winter-weather-event/page/2/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
537 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main focus is on the Thursday night into Friday time period. A
potent but fast moving low pressure system should develop in the
southeastern U.S. and progress off the coast around NC/VA. With this
track, our region is in the favored location for mostly snow (though
depending on how close the center of the low stays to our coast,
there may be a brief period of rain or sleet at the start of
precipitation. Models came into better agreement with the track of
this low (as compared to yesterday when some models were still
showing a weak/surpressed system), however there remain some timing
differences. Most guidance seems to be in agreement that this will
be a quick impact (no more than 12 hours of precip), but there is
question if it will be from late Thursday night through mid day
Friday, or be primarily during the day Friday. The storm system is
not yet fully within the period for our snow amount forecast, so we
will have more details on that later today.
NWS updated their snowfall maps for the entire event, which should start in the wee hours on Friday and continue through about noon. Still 66 hours from the start of the event vs. the 12Z model suite which initialized at 7 am EST this morning (and 60 hours from the 18Z model runs coming out now, which doesn't look much different from the 12Z models, which the NWS maps are based on mostly), so still uncertainty on the track and intensity of the precip, leaving a variety of solutions on the table. If the NWS forecast verifies, this could have a significant impact on the Friday morning rush hour.
This includes everything from a coastal hugger bringing fairly heavy snows to all for awhile, followed by a changeover to rain for the coast and maybe up through 95, holding accumulations down there to a track towards the 40N/70W benchmark (favored now), which brings all snow for most (with a general 3-6" except at the immediate coast south of about Pt. Pleasant), to a track that goes out to sea more, with the heaviest snow S and E of 95 and less NW. An all rain event and a complete miss are essentially off the table. Also, if the system strengthens faster than forecast, 6-8" amounts could come into play (more likely for LI/coastal New England), while if the storm sputters, a more general 1-3" could be more common. Discussion below.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2073-1722-east-coast-winter-weather-event/page/10/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022
The forecast gets interesting again Thursday night into Friday
as the next coastal storm continues to develop and then move
north. The deterministic model guidance has generally shifted a
bit farther south/east with the track of the low over the past
24 hours while ensemble guidance continues to hint at a track
farther north and west. Thus, still lots of uncertainty
regarding the track of the low and its impacts at a given
location. At this time general model consensus brings most of
the forecast area at least some accumulating snow and this is
highlighted by the latest forecast. Within this broader area of
snowfall though there will be the potential for an area of heavy
snow to set up with 4-6+ inches of accumulation. A low track
near the coast would result in snow changing to rain near the
coast with higher totals N/W of the urban corridor while a track
farther S/E would bring the higher totals near or even S/E of
the urban corridor similar to Monday`s system. Please continue
to monitor the forecast for updates as we refine this over the
next day or two. Period of greatest concern looks to be
overnight Thursday night into Friday morning with the low
quickly exiting in the afternoon. Strong NW winds gusting 20 to
30 mph should follow in it`s wake by this time though.
You truly have no idea what you're talking about, just like last night when you said "I dont know of any model saying that [3-6"] with most with zilch right now," when in fact no models showed zilch and several were in the 3-6" range, which I showed. If today's 12Z models were trending towards a lesser/non-event, why did the NWS go with a general 3-6" forecast for most? A couple of models were more like 1-3", but some were 3-6" and they don't just go by the models. I also haven't said anything about what I think will happen - have just shared the possibilities. Given what we have now, I'd say a 2-4/3-6" event is looking likely for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC area. Subject to change, of course, as we learn more.
Yep and folding my thread into this one meant I just had to start another thread on the freezing rain advisory for tomorrow, which I had added into the thread title for Friday's storm to cover both. Oh well. I had also been talking about the Friday threat since yesterday in the Monday snowstorm thread and held off starting a new one since so many seem upset when a snow thread is started too early...but by waiting, someone else always seems to start one earlier and mine gets folded into that one, because Tango is Tango.
I'm sure he'll be deleting the game threads (and this post for deigning to discuss the topic), TV coverage threads, and others that I'll now start a week in advance of when he usually starts them, rather than folding his under mine because mine were first. That's a joke - I don't care that much about it, but he does, which is a little odd. I could just start storm threads a week in advance, since they always show up that far in advance on the models, but that would lead to dozens of useless threads, since most of those don't pan out. It's fascinating how there is no bickering on these threads on TOS...
Great job by Tango! The other thread was first. To summarize this post:
I'm curious about something.
What, exactly, is the reward in being a 100% useless tool?
the 18Z ones that show 2-4" for most with spots to 4-5" or so? Yes, what is your point?
A
Are you clinging to the 84 hr nam
The gfs ticked se..should concern all give what the Euro has been showing
Are you clinging to the 84 hr nam
The gfs ticked se..should concern all give what the Euro has been showing
18Z Euro was a significant improvement, and the 18Z NAM is worse that 12Z, so not sure what your point is at all - we're going to see model fluctuations - the 18Z GFS and RDPS are decent. Maybe stick to hoops, especially while a game is on...
i believe every county in NJ is under an advisory for freezing rain possible
separate thread on this - all of NJ at risk for a light glaze, although most probably won't get it...
Local schools just announced a 90 minute delayed opening for tomorrow morning.
Oh, I’m going in early tomorrow and leaving early. I guess I’ll find out around 6am
Thanks! That's almost exactly what I said an hour ago on 33andrain. Will you share your thinking or is that only for email recipients. This board could certainly use your expertise. Although you might get dragged into the mud a little...
You can't be serious can you? You know I love snow right? But yes, I should've been more specific...
I wish folks would stop trolling these threads. I've enjoyed them and used them for reference for years. Why the hate? Its just a fun thing for different forecast info and to talk with others from different parts of the state about what they are seeing on the ground. If you dislike snow why not just skip the theads?
Sure when I get the note put together for my distro tomorrow I'll post it here. I saw you ask me to do that a few days ago and I meant to answer, I was clearing a covid case. I also always felt like this was your turf. But I'll share my thoughts to.orrow. They won't be profound. Moderate shortwave, fast flow, well timed with cold air in place. Not every storm deserves a tome.
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