OT: Snowstorm Friday
- Thread starter mikemarc1
- Start date
Great! Thought I've said multiple times you should post here and I meant it. I don't feel territorial at all about good input, especially since I'm not even a met - we used to have a couple of pros post here, but they're gone. The threads on TOS have a couple of long-term pros on them and they add a lot. Great to hear you're on the mend, too.
Time to go to bed, as I'm getting up at 5 am to drive home tomorrow, so I'll be off the grid until the 0Z runs tomorrow night, as I also have a scheduled disc golf stop, so it'll be an 18-hour day on the road. Anyway, tonight's 0Z runs are mostly over witih the GFS, CMC and RDPS showing a general 3-6" for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC area, while the NAM and UK are only showing about 0.5-2" for most, while the Euro comes out in over an hour (but the 18Z Euro showed a general 2-4"). My thinking for a 2-4/3-6" kind of event is unchanged, but we're still 48+ hours away from the start of the storm and more or less snow are certainly still on the table.
Wtf is wrong with you? Mods should ban you from weather threadsGreat job by Tango! The other thread was first. To summarize this post:
They used to, but he's "protected" now.
That part I don’t mind.
The running thread thing for the whole season is what bugs me.
NWS updated their snowfall maps for the entire event, which should start in the wee hours on Friday and continue through about noon. Still 66 hours from the start of the event vs. the 12Z model suite which initialized at 7 am EST this morning (and 60 hours from the 18Z model runs coming out now, which doesn't look much different from the 12Z models, which the NWS maps are based on mostly), so still uncertainty on the track and intensity of the precip, leaving a variety of solutions on the table. If the NWS forecast verifies, this could have a significant impact on the Friday morning rush hour.
This includes everything from a coastal hugger bringing fairly heavy snows to all for awhile, followed by a changeover to rain for the coast and maybe up through 95, holding accumulations down there to a track towards the 40N/70W benchmark (favored now), which brings all snow for most (with a general 3-6" except at the immediate coast south of about Pt. Pleasant), to a track that goes out to sea more, with the heaviest snow S and E of 95 and less NW. An all rain event and a complete miss are essentially off the table. Also, if the system strengthens faster than forecast, 6-8" amounts could come into play (more likely for LI/coastal New England), while if the storm sputters, a more general 1-3" could be more common. Discussion below.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2073-1722-east-coast-winter-weather-event/page/10/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022
The forecast gets interesting again Thursday night into Friday
as the next coastal storm continues to develop and then move
north. The deterministic model guidance has generally shifted a
bit farther south/east with the track of the low over the past
24 hours while ensemble guidance continues to hint at a track
farther north and west. Thus, still lots of uncertainty
regarding the track of the low and its impacts at a given
location. At this time general model consensus brings most of
the forecast area at least some accumulating snow and this is
highlighted by the latest forecast. Within this broader area of
snowfall though there will be the potential for an area of heavy
snow to set up with 4-6+ inches of accumulation. A low track
near the coast would result in snow changing to rain near the
coast with higher totals N/W of the urban corridor while a track
farther S/E would bring the higher totals near or even S/E of
the urban corridor similar to Monday`s system. Please continue
to monitor the forecast for updates as we refine this over the
next day or two. Period of greatest concern looks to be
overnight Thursday night into Friday morning with the low
quickly exiting in the afternoon. Strong NW winds gusting 20 to
30 mph should follow in it`s wake by this time though.
NWS cut back snowfall a bit, so now it's more like a 2-4" event - although the 6Z models have come in with a bit more snow so far, so we may see that bump back up if the 12Z models confirm that. Still a ways to go before the event...
People/media focus on snow days from now and whiff on the ice this morning. Philly area having a tough time this morning. Major highways got no brine or salt.
You called it! No reason to hype select models for wishcasting.
NWS cut back snowfall a bit, so now it's more like a 2-4" event - although the 6Z models have come in with a bit more snow so far, so we may see that bump back up if the 12Z models confirm that. Still a ways to go before the event...
It seems like nws is always chasing a model suite from behind
This "Hillsborough Deli" bit really is way played out.
Are you saying it's gotten old and sagging??
That's what the Hillsborough MILFs say about my wee bit.
well, if they're only going to get 1-3", they should be saying that.
You're still sore about the Cannonball. We should have done it in the middle of the snowstorm in Virginia that shut down I-95.
They're just telling you that to make you feel good. And they're hoping your monetary tip is bigger than your other one.
True, we do. But not in the same way as the Hillsborough MILFs.
Yes, Spanky, that was both the implication and the joke. Which, you know, would've been funnier if NOT explained explicitly. 😡
I literally almost "pulled a Spanky" and typed a reiteration of your comment before realizing it was adding no value.
And by "literally", I meant "figuratively", but through common usage, "literally" literally means "figuratively".
I love the weather threads as many of us do. If #’s is correct that ‘s great and if he’s wrong so what. As long as he enjoys doing it then should as well.
Sorry, I didn't realize that was a joke. I know you're a little slow, so was trying to clarify the situation for you.
What about the coke and hookers bit?
@mildone 😝 or the violating of innocent sheep??
I see someone else commented on it as well…oops
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I consider it a different thing. Hookers and blow are real. So are sheep. The Hillsborough Deli and all corresponding "MILFs" are entirely fictitious.
Models not that great for moderate snows. There are hints on some models of potential of some heavier banding setting up. Where and even if it happens is pretty unknown.
some models are pretty tragic like the Ukie
the just in 12z euro rather meh with totals
the gfs similar to the Euro with amounts
NAM also not that enthused
some models are pretty tragic like the Ukie
the just in 12z euro rather meh with totals
the gfs similar to the Euro with amounts
NAM also not that enthused
Basically looking a window of an 8 hour snow sometime between 10PM Thursday and 7 AM Friday
based on CURRENT modelling, thinking of 1-3 inches and 2-4 in certain areas with some higher amounts of possible with banding and some higher ratios but might be too early to pin that down. Some places will do better than others. The chances of a widespread regionwide 4-6 or even 8 inches that was hyped earlier are much less at the moment.
based on CURRENT modelling, thinking of 1-3 inches and 2-4 in certain areas with some higher amounts of possible with banding and some higher ratios but might be too early to pin that down. Some places will do better than others. The chances of a widespread regionwide 4-6 or even 8 inches that was hyped earlier are much less at the moment.
when the NAM isnt even aroused enough to spit out its usually overdone totals its usually onto something.
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