WW is saying 3-6 for our area, but still low confidence. Update in a few hours! Weather.com is down to 1-3.
OT: Snowstorm Friday
- Thread starter mikemarc1
- Start date
The possibility of higher ratios is why im going a little higher
Todays model runs will be important
Todays model runs will be important
Actually, TWC is now up to 3-5" generally, for 95 and SE of there, but kept 1-3" NW of 95 (they had 1-3" for all of the area before). Areas NW of 95 are at most risk of getting lower snowfall amounts, as we've seen on several models.
WW is now down to 2-4 as well.
I'm just looking at my zip code, all it shows now is:Actually, TWC is now up to 3-5" generally, for 95 and SE of there, but kept 1-3" NW of 95 (they had 1-3" for all of the area before). Areas NW of 95 are at most risk of getting lower snowfall amounts, as we've seen on several models.
Thu 06 | Night
28°95%
NNW 6 mph
Cloudy with snow showers becoming a steady accumulating snow later on. Low 28F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.
Fri 07 | Day
34°24%
WNW 15 mph
Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. A few flurries or snow showers possible. High 34F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph.
So I guess 1-3 plus some "flurries or snow showers". Whatever that means!
The HRRR and NAM both cut back on totals in the latest run..something to keep an eye on
@e5fdny - if you like to go by the NAM, then you won't like the model trend for the NAM, which has gotten progressively snowier for most, but especially along and SE of 95 to the coast. Trying this model GIF forthe first time - let's see if it works - works on FB...
blob:https://ru848789.imgur.com/1c44ed21-83d2-42ab-8c90-28ea8060d586
FIFY:
"What time should I expect you to come down and plow my driveway?", said Sandy the MILF as she gestured down at her BLANK while addressing the young deli meat guy behind the counter at the Hillsborough Deli.
I was simply posting what some models were showing at the time and what the NWS was showing with their graphics/discussions mentioning banding likely leading to some areas getting 4-6" or more. That's not "hyping" especially since I said it wasn't a "forecast" but simply sharing what the likely ceiling was. Now that you're in the same place that I am and many pros are, does that mean you're "hyping" the storm? Absolutely not, your 2nd post above is great - I agree with it 100%. Could we see somewhat less, especially NW of 95? Absolutely, but that's just the uncertainty built in to numerical modeling of the weather and not something to scream bust over, at least not if someone was forecast to get 4" and gets 2" (if they get a dusting, then sure, that's a bust).
The HRRR cut back, especially NW of 95, but the NAM increased totals for most - see my GIF of the last 3 NAM runs...
why is it an issue though? He was correct 5 days ago.
The latest from meteorologist Steve DiMartino, who has been on the weather boards for almost 20 years. He's very good at showing/explaining meteorology, although he tends to be more bullish than average on snowfall (some use unkinder words, lol). Here's his video and his map for those interested in his bottom line...
https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2022/01/05/the-new-jersey-coast-a-target-again-for-snow/
https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2022/01/05/the-new-jersey-coast-a-target-again-for-snow/
As expected, in response to the models showing a bit more snow (most, not all, and especially the mesoscale/convective ones) the NWS upped snowfall totals significantly, i.e., by about 0.5-1.0" for most NWS-Philly locations and by 1-2" for most NWS-NYC locations and the NWS-NYC issued advisories for all of their counties. Basically a solid 3-5" event with some locations possibly getting more under heavier bands and some getting on the low end who miss out on the bands. Friday morning rush will likely be a mess.
Edit: found the first map on 33andrain and made the 2nd map from the NDFD (National Digital Forecast Database, which is essentially the NWS "grids" they use for their office maps, as far as I can tell) and found the 3rd map at the Eastern Region website. Shows it all on one map for our region and for the whole northeast US.
You guys are actually in sync, which is nice.
Besides following these threads, which are great, I keep a tab open for my local NWS forecast.
Yesterday, the forecast was from 1-3" tonight and then less than 1" tomorrow morning.
That was upped today to 2-4" tonight, with an additional 1-2" tomorrow.
My first post in this thread was 10 am Tuesday, about 2.5 days before the start of the event and the day before that I speculated on snow ranges in the Monday snowstorm thread, because speculation is what meteorology is that far out. Why do you do season predictions and bubble analyses weeks in advance of the tourney, when you know many to most will end up wrong that far out - why not just wait until the day before the picks are announced, when you're likely to have them mostly/all right? Because it's informative and kind of fun, just like the weather.
WW update:
Not many changes to discuss with tonight's forecast, as we are still on the way to a decently workable storm. With dry air in place, initial snow that arrives after midnight will be light at first, though this can still cover if surfaces are untreated. Eventually, steadier snow rates will take over, and we could see some moderate to even heavier periods set up through the predawn before intensities lessen and snow tapers back 6 - 9 AM. We're going with a 2.5 - 5.0" forecast still, as there can be variability depending on where the heavier intensities set up. Afterwards, we are drier and turn breezy for the afternoon, with some breaks of sun. We do have an additional low risk for a flurry or isolated snow shower through the early evening, though daytime melting/any blowing snow should be watched anyway for the evening freeze.
OVERVIEW
Start Time
Friday
12:00 AM - 3:00 AM
Initially light, then becoming steady
End Time
Friday
6:00 AM - 9:00 AM
Coating - 1.0" = 10%
1.0 - 2.5" = 35% (so variation likely to the less snow outcome)
2.5 - 5.0" = 45%
5.0 - 8.0" = 10%
DT (Dave Tolleris, aka WxRisk) generally doesn't bark, but when he does you know it, lol, but yes, I agree he seems a bit on the high side. Interesting that this year he's trying to move his followers from FB to Medium.These totals seem high to me. We will know tomorrow. I know my morning ride from Hamilton to Macungie PA is gonna suck tomorrow if I leave my house at 5:15am. Hopefully I can go in late
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/last-call-map-19816174df62
https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk
Last edited:
The young man behind the counter replied: "You'll have to take a number for that."
So, you were fudging the WW forecast by saying it was "down to 2-4" when it looks like it was ("still") always 2.5-5.0"? And you wonder why nobody wants you in these threads.
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
You're absolutely right - never claimed otherwise. What are your thoughts on this storm?
yeah well some of these models say not so fast...euro like 2-3, the western sectios do not look all that great and some mets are doubting the heavier totals with this storm
NWS Blacksburg (VA) advisory for my area (Boone NC) is forecasting 4" with more "locally" up on the ridges of blue. Supposed to be commencing anytime now thru tomorrow 7 am or so. We're ready....
Edit: left out the "best" part: wind gusts to 40 MPH. Wind chill low of -15°
Edit: left out the "best" part: wind gusts to 40 MPH. Wind chill low of -15°
Last edited:
The 12Z models are all in and the clear message is that areas NW of 95 are likely to get less precip/snow than people along 95, who are likely to get less snow than folks towards the coast, partly due to less precip and partly due to where the heavier snowbands and the light subsidence zones set up (which is NW of the heavier bands). I think Steve D.'s map above captures a lot of this well, as does his discussion in the video.The latest from meteorologist Steve DiMartino, who has been on the weather boards for almost 20 years. He's very good at showing/explaining meteorology, although he tends to be more bullish than average on snowfall (some use unkinder words, lol). Here's his video and his map for those interested in his bottom line...
https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2022/01/05/the-new-jersey-coast-a-target-again-for-snow/
Based largely on the 12Z models, one could imagine the 2" line being from about Reading to Allentown to Hopatcong to Newburgh and the 4" line going right up Route 1 from Philly to New Brunswick to Newark to Yonkers and the 6" line going from Hammonton to Long Branch and across to Hempstead on LI and 2-4"/4-6" being between those lines and <2" NW of the first line - and 6" being the max, even east of the 6" line. It's also possible these "lines" could shift 20-30 miles, i.e., the 2" line could be more like along route 1 (a few models are showing a sharper cutoff from 95 and NW of there) - I think that's the biggest bust potential on the table right now.
One other observation is that the storm looks to be a little earlier than thought before, i.e., the heaviest snow for most will be before dawn with lighter snows through 8-9 am. Accumulating snow could be over in Philly by 7 am and by 9 am in NYC, which would lessen rush hour impacts a bit, as visibility might not be the issue it would be if the heavier snow was during rush hour. Still some likely model variations coming up and the actual system will likely have some surprises, as usual.
Largely agree - look at my latest post - based on the 12Z models I think along and NW of 95 is likely at biggest risk of busting on the low side vs. what the NWS and others are showing. Coastal areas look pretty solid for 4-6" based on the models, but we could easily see anywhere from 2" to 5" in NB for example.
My daughter’s 5th grade class did a contest back in November to see if anyone could guess the first snow day. She picked tomorrow. Taking her to AC this weekend if this thing verifies.
Here in the Fredericksburg, VA. area, Monday's storm left motorists stranded in their cars on 95 for 24 hours or more. In our area we are in our fourth day of no power, meaning no heat, lights phones or well water. House temp is 47 degrees Trees down making it like a war zone. Virginia doesn't deal with snow well. The last thing needed is more of it.
Crazy scenes from that storm. Fortunately, it's extremely unlikely you'll get more than 2-4" from this storm, as it's a Miller B, weakening near you guys while transferring its energy to a coastal too far north to give you that much snow. Not that you need even 2-4" more...
What caused that level of devastation? Was there ice mixed in? It's not like snow is that uncommon for VA
Think the i95 thin
think the i95 thing sucked up resources.. and wind took down a lot of trees.. even blocking major highways like i64.. so, what's that.. no maintenance on the trees near those roads? Traffic stuck on roads prevented plows.. and that meant roads were not clear.. and repair crews couldn't get around... just a real mess.. and who knows what the supply chain crisis and the "great resignation" have done to the ability to field repair crews... had a family member stuck just south of Richmond on way back to Jersey... said local TV was talking about really bad secondary roads (when all they wanted to hear about was i95).
WW Update - down to 2-4 and 1.5-3.5 on pavement:
Brief Moderate Snow Late Tonight... This initial push of snow will favor into PA and North Jersey delaying our start times in Central NJ... Our snow will mostly arrive as the coastal low takes shape after Midnight and strengthens heading into the pre-dawn hours. Once snow overcomes the drier air in place, a moderate period is likely with 0.5"/hr rates; perhaps briefly up to 1.0"/hr toward I-95. Overall, the event will be short lived ending around daybreak Friday. Temperatures look to come up above freezing during the daytime with some blowing and drifting given the strong winds. While this will aid in the drying process, a refreeze of wet surfaces is possible Friday night.
OVERVIEW
Start Time
Friday
1:30 AM - 3:30 AM
End Time
Friday
7:00 AM - 9:00 AM
0.5 - 2.0" = 30%
2.0 - 4.0" = 50%
4.0 - 7.0" = 20%
