Good to come home to power and not worry about it - just have to deal with the food that may or may not have spoiled.
Not necessarily, as that's the initial WAA (warm air advection) low approaching from the TN valley. In a "Miller B" setup like this, the parent low kind of dies out and transfers its energy to a coastal low which pops off the VA or NC coast and that's the low which will give most of the snow to our area, except for areas well NW of 95, like the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and NWNJ/Catskills, which will likely get 1-2" from the parent low before it dies out. It's also why some models are showing areas like SE PA/Mercer/Hunterdon/Somerset/Morris possibly getting the least snow, as they're too far east for the parent low snows and too far west for significant coastal low snows, which may be confined to 95 and SE-ward.
Well, the NWS-Philly adjusted their forecast to reflect much of what I was guessing based on the 12Z models, with advisories (blue) for 2-4" for counties along and NW of 95 and warnings (pink) for4-6" for counties SE of 95, which includes all of SNJ, including Monmouth, but not Cape May, which will have rain/mixing issues; these counties have a 5" threshold for warnings, while counties N of 276/195 have a 6" criterion (including Monmouth).
Shouldnt you be napping right now so you can be up all night playing in the snow?
No, I slept a good 5 hours last night after driving up from FL yesterday, so I'm good for little sleep tonight and I will be up reporting just about every hour, as usual, lol...
Did the same at Whole Foods here in Metuchen at 3 pm - not much more crowded than usual - it's hard to imagine so many people who have to stock up for maybe 1 day of provisions, lol...
Some were cursing the wrong Gov. on Twitter? [not trying to make political, just that people can be weird blaming the Governor for a storm].
If you are using that much TP in 24 hrs you might want to see a doctor!
Started snowing in NW NC about 3 pm. On and off. Not much accumulation, yet. Less than 1". But radar shows much developing and heading at us. Temps going to plunge and winds will be roaring.
Some were cursing the wrong Gov. on Twitter? [not trying to make political, just that people can be weird blaming the Governor for a storm].
Some were cursing the wrong Gov. on Twitter? [not trying to make political, just that people can be weird blaming the Governor for a storm].
There’s certain snacks I like for a storm like chips and ice cream which I don’t normally have here. I also like to bake some cookies.
show your work - there will be no difference in accumulations on pavement or unpaved surfaces at all, with temps below 32F and most of it falling while it's dark - smells like BS to me...
Here you go Mr. Sensitive, don't shoot the messenger:
OVERVIEW | ||||
Start Time | End Time | Total | Snow Confidence | |
Friday 1:30 AM - 3:30 AM | Friday 7:00 AM - 9:00 AM | 2.0 - 4.0" Snow | 0.5 - 2.0" | 30% |
2.0 - 4.0" | 50% | |||
4.0 - 7.0" | 20% | |||
PAVEMENT DETAILS | Accumulation | 1.5 - 3.5" Snow | First Inch | Fri 3:00 AM - 5:00 AM |
Comments | Surfaces can quickly cover as snow gets steadier |
HAZARDS | ||
Hazard | Threat | Description |
Ice | Low | Some slick spots initially, though any ice likely from melt/refreeze after event, with temps dropping well below freezing Fri Eve. |
Snowfall Rate | Moderate | Rates gradually climb, with most 0.5"/hr or less, though potential for 1"/hr or greater in any heavy bands early Fri AM. |
Blowing Snow | Low | A fluffy snow and gusts 30-35 mph tomorrow will cause minor blowing/drifting. |
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Hows the grind meat?
Here's what I published. Don't know why this is so long for a 3-6" in 8 hour little storm.
Greetings,
New Jersey's second significant winter storm of the year is on our doorstep. After a mild and benign close to 2021, winter is in high gear in January. Earlier this week it was southern NJ and the coast that received all the snow, with locations the northern half of the state starved for a flake. Tonight looks fairly similar with coastal areas likely to see the most snow, although everyone will get in on the action this time.
It's cold enough for snow just about everywhere, and temperatures will drop below freezing everywhere except perhaps Cape May Peninsula by the onset of precipitation shortly after midnight.
Upstairs at 500mb we see a potent shortwave rounding the base of a progressive trough that's racing across the Ohio Valley and through the mid-Atlantic. You might not know what a fast, zonal flow off the Pacific Ocean looks like, but this is that look- all the wind barbs synchronized across CA, OR, WA, and British Columbia. That flow pushes the eastern trough and the embedded shortwave off the coast licketysplit. That's why this is a short duration, quick hitting little system. The zonal flow nationally is also part of the reason that this will be mostly snow for everyone, otherwise some warmer air could've potentially worked in off the ocean and tainted snowfall totals.
Down at the surface, here's the NAM model depiction between midnight and 9am Friday morning. You might notice that the surface low remains strung out over the Atlantic, and the red "L" seems to jump around a bit. The model might be struggling to place the exact low center, or it could be bouncing around with the various areas of thunderstorms which would have local pressure falls that the model is "seeing." I don't think it matters much for the forecast really, but I wanted to show this as an example of the banded nature to the snowfall. It looks like there will be a couple stronger bands, particularly from Monmouth through Atlantic Counties where snow could fall close to 2"/hr in the pre-dawn hours. Forget about the morning commute if that happens. Further west you could see snowfall totals decreased, as a local spot that gets extra from a band robs snow from the area outside the band. Unfortunately for me in Hunterdon County, I might be the one to get skunked here.
Look for 3-6" statewide, except a little less in Cape May and perhaps across the Skylands in the northwest. Heaviest snow totals will likely be in Monmouth and Ocean Counties due to proximity to heavier banding, and also snow will linger here longer into the morning. I could see some 7 or 8 inch totals for the Parkway corridor here. Things wind down for everyone between 7am and 10am. The rest of the day will be chilly and pretty.
Next week, it looks like the cold, rather than snow, could be the weather headline.
Warm Regards,
John
As someone residing in the Upper Bucks/Lower Hunterdon area, this is music to my ears. Make it so.
Nah. I used to but no time. I wouldn't have anything to add anyway if HM and Wes Junker are still holding court. Also I looked around last year and it seems like theres a half dozen boards instead of one that everyone is at. Easternuswx was a good time.
Well HM rarely posts anymore - he's mostly a Twitter guy now, posting about teleconnections and wave cycles and such. He's actually married to my best friend's little sister (not that little, I guess - they just had a baby, lol) and I've met him a few times and he's incredibly quiet, but you can tell how smart he is too (we don't talk much weather at social events - his wife is an RU met, too).
Some were cursing the wrong Gov. on Twitter? [not trying to make political, just that people can be weird blaming the Governor for a storm].
