OT: Snowstorm Friday
- Thread starter mikemarc1
- Start date
That's a great opening line for a novel!
You're going to find this confusing, because it is: the "rain" they show in those graphics is not actually rain, per se, but rather, total liquid precip, so you're forecast to get 0.5" of total precip, of which 4.7" of snow results and the rest is rain and without knowing the snow/rain ratio, you actually can't figure out how much of the total liquid is actually rain, but it's a very small amount, as 4.7" of snow would be 0.47" of liquid equivalent at an average of 10" of snow per 1" of liquid - but lookng at Neptune, below, the ratio is 13" of snow per 1" of rain, so if you're the same, that 4.7" of snow is 0.36" of liquid equivalent, leaving you with 0.14" of rain, then 0.36" of liquid falling as 4.7" of snow. At 13:1, it woujld be 6.5" of snow if all snow.
The graphics below are for Spring Lake, which is likely close to you, Neptune, just inland. Both list 0.47" of total "rain" which is really total precip, of which none is rain in Neptune with 6.1" of snowfall, while a bit must be rain at Spring Lake, since only 5.1" of snowfall is shown - therefore the 1.0" of snow that is not being shown in Spring Lake must be rain, but probably it's 0.076" of rain, given Neptune's 13" of snow to 1" of rain equivalent ratio.
Make perfect sense?
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Light snow is falling all over NWNJ and EPA from the parent low approaching from the west. Coastal hasn't formed yet, so if places NW of 95, mostly, get 1-2" of snow from 10 pm to 2 am or so, that will be somewhat bonus snow - and could even be most of your snow if the coastal doesn't reach that far NW...
The 0Z models are all in line with the current snowfall forecasts of 2-4/3-6" depending on where you are, from the NWS and local media outlets (and our own @RUJohnny), so now it's time to settle back and watch the radar and actually go outside and enjoy the snow - should be a pretty snow with good dendrites and fairly high ratios of 12-15:1 (snow to liquid).
Nothing in Metuchen yet and I'm guessing we get 4.75" of snow.
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New avatar. Did your cat put on weight, or is that a different cat?
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This radar image from about 11:45 pm caused mass panic on the weather boards, lol; the hole has mostly closed in and snow should start for most of CNJ in the next 15-20 minutes...
Flakes are flying (ever so lightly, but should pick up soon) in Metuchen. Let the games begin! C'mon folks, you know the drill - post your observations (snowfall rate, snow on the ground, temp, location, etc.)...
10 minutes later and coming down lightly to moderately already with a light dusting on the ground and 31F. Pretty flakes - very nice dendrites - should be good ratio snow...
10 minutes later and coming down lightly to moderately already with a light dusting on the ground and 31F. Pretty flakes - very nice dendrites - should be good ratio snow...
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As of 2:00 am, measured 1/4" on the ground with light to moderate snow. Temp dropped from 31 to 28F over the last 30 minutes with the snow falling and cooling the column. Snow is fairly dry and is a mix of small and medium dendrites (plates mostly).
I’m in bayville currently 31 degrees. Snowing steady right now. We already have more snow on the ground then Monday where we got about 2 inches
Just took a nice Jebwalk - spectacular out there folks! As of 3:00 am here in Metuchen we have 1.25" OTG for 1" the past hour and it's snowing somewhere between moderately and heavily with gorgeous mostly large (1/2" to 1" across) fluffy dendrites.
Well, the NWS-Philly adjusted their forecast to reflect much of what I was guessing based on the 12Z models, with advisories (blue) for 2-4" for counties along and NW of 95 and warnings (pink) for4-6" for counties SE of 95, which includes all of SNJ, including Monmouth, but not Cape May, which will have rain/mixing issues; these counties have a 5" threshold for warnings, while counties N of 276/195 have a 6" criterion (including Monmouth).
Edit: found the NWS-Philly updated snowfall map on FB, but not their website yet, lol - shows the 4-6" amounts for the warned counties and 3-4" for adjacent counties, although it shows Middlesex in the 4-6" swath mostly - my guess is no warning for Middlesex to be consistent with NWS-NYC which doesn't have warnings for SI/Union and because confidence is likely lower for Middlesex vs. Monmouth.
It's also very close to what Lee Goldberg just showed, with a 4" line from about Cherry Hill to Sayreville to Queens (about 10 miles SE of my route 1 line), and 2-4" NW of that line, but 4-6" SE of that line. NWS-NYC issued warnings for 6"+ for Suffolk/eastern CT and advisories for 3-4/" for most of the rest of its counties, including NENJ and they issued their snowfall map, below.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
Edit: here's the full size map for NWS-Philly...
Not that it matters much at this point, but the NWS-Philly did just update their storm total snowfall map, below. Some increases along and E of 95 and for the Pocono/Lehigh Valley, but less for far NWNJ...
As of 4:00 am we have 2.75" OTG (1.5" last hour) and it's 27F. Snow just went from heavy back to moderate with smaller flakes - hopefully just a lull.
You're showing your snow bias again hoping its just a lull.
As of 5:00 am, we're up to 3.5", but wth only 3/4" the last hour; 27F still. Snowing moderately to heavily with larger flakes again. Should at least get to 4", but not sure about my 4.75" prediction. Such a nice storm to walk around in...
I love snow - why would I want a lull? And why would I hide the fact that I love snow? But I can also love snow and be dispassionate about the science of it - some of us know how to walk and chew gum at the same time.
Holy crap it poured snow most of the last hour, so as of 6:00 am, we're up to 5.0" of snow OTG, meaning we got 1.5" of snow in the past hour. Actually exceeded my prediction of 4.75", which I thought was a bit too optimistic, as the NWS had me for 4.2". We just backed off to moderate snow and that might have been the last of the heavy snow bands for us, as the storm is winding down from west to east. Still 27F.
Did you actually use a ruler to measure that 1/4 inch? I have a friend who lives in Metuchen and he said at 2AM they had 3/8" so one of you is wrong.
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
633 AM EST Fri Jan 7 2022
...SNOWFALL REPORTS...
Location Amount Time/Date Provider
...New Jersey...
...Atlantic County...
Somers Point 2.3 in 0520 AM 01/07 Public
...Burlington County...
Medford 5.1 in 0559 AM 01/07 Public
Browns Mills 3.5 in 0622 AM 01/07 Public
...Camden County...
1 N West Berlin 3.2 in 0538 AM 01/07 NWS Employee
...Middlesex County...
East Brunswick 3.0 in 0556 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Monmouth County...
Howell 5.0 in 0616 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Neptune City 3.6 in 0536 AM 01/07 Public
Freehold 2.8 in 0515 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Morris County...
Dover 2.0 in 0337 AM 01/07 Public
Chester 1.0 in 1212 AM 01/07 Public
...Ocean County...
Brick 2.0 in 0522 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Forked River 2.0 in 0430 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Salem County...
Pennsville 3.0 in 0530 AM 01/07 Public
...Somerset County...
Warren 4.5 in 0520 AM 01/07 Public
...Sussex County...
Highland Lakes 2.4 in 0620 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
4 WSW Wantage Twp 1.2 in 0424 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Warren County...
Hackettstown 3.4 in 0600 AM 01/07 Public
...Pennsylvania...
...Berks County...
Sinking Spring 3.6 in 0545 AM 01/07 Public
Huffs Church 2.0 in 0215 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Bucks County...
Jamison 5.0 in 0532 AM 01/07 Public
Buckingham Twp 4.1 in 0530 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Lower Makefield Twp 4.1 in 0600 AM 01/07 Public
Hilltown Twp 4.0 in 0500 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Bensalem 3.5 in 0554 AM 01/07 Public
...Carbon County...
1 S Meckesville 2.2 in 0300 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Chester County...
East Nantmeal Twp 4.3 in 0600 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
1 WSW Valley Forge 4.1 in 0628 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
New London Twp. 3.9 in 0537 AM 01/07 Public
1 E East Fallowfield Twp 3.3 in 0438 AM 01/07 Public
East Coventry Twp 3.1 in 0623 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Exton 2.9 in 0521 AM 01/07 Public
...Delaware County...
Morton 3.9 in 0611 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Folsom 3.3 in 0544 AM 01/07 Public
1 WNW Wayne 2.5 in 0421 AM 01/07 Public
Morton 1.0 in 0300 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Lehigh County...
Breinigsville 3.0 in 0552 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Coopersburg 2.0 in 1127 PM 01/06 Public
Whitehall Twp 1.5 in 1147 PM 01/06 Public
Macungie 1.3 in 1118 PM 01/06 Trained Spotter
Salisbury Twp 1.3 in 1100 PM 01/06 Broadcast Media
Lehigh Valley International 1.2 in 0100 AM 01/07 ASOS
...Monroe County...
Mount Pocono 1.5 in 0506 AM 01/07 Public
...Montgomery County...
New Hanover Twp 3.7 in 0613 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Eagleville 1.9 in 0615 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Red Hill 1.5 in 0411 AM 01/07 Public
...Northampton County...
Nazareth 3.2 in 0600 AM 01/07 Public
Bangor 2.5 in 0628 AM 01/07 Public
Moore Twp 2.3 in 0530 AM 01/07 Public
...Philadelphia County...
2 NE Northeast Philadelphia 4.0 in 0615 AM 01/07 Public
Germantown 3.8 in 0515 AM 01/07 Public
1 W Philadelphia 3.3 in 0623 AM 01/07 Public
1 SE Point Breeze 3.2 in 0601 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
&&
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
633 AM EST Fri Jan 7 2022
...SNOWFALL REPORTS...
Location Amount Time/Date Provider
...New Jersey...
...Atlantic County...
Somers Point 2.3 in 0520 AM 01/07 Public
...Burlington County...
Medford 5.1 in 0559 AM 01/07 Public
Browns Mills 3.5 in 0622 AM 01/07 Public
...Camden County...
1 N West Berlin 3.2 in 0538 AM 01/07 NWS Employee
...Middlesex County...
East Brunswick 3.0 in 0556 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Monmouth County...
Howell 5.0 in 0616 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Neptune City 3.6 in 0536 AM 01/07 Public
Freehold 2.8 in 0515 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Morris County...
Dover 2.0 in 0337 AM 01/07 Public
Chester 1.0 in 1212 AM 01/07 Public
...Ocean County...
Brick 2.0 in 0522 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Forked River 2.0 in 0430 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Salem County...
Pennsville 3.0 in 0530 AM 01/07 Public
...Somerset County...
Warren 4.5 in 0520 AM 01/07 Public
...Sussex County...
Highland Lakes 2.4 in 0620 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
4 WSW Wantage Twp 1.2 in 0424 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Warren County...
Hackettstown 3.4 in 0600 AM 01/07 Public
...Pennsylvania...
...Berks County...
Sinking Spring 3.6 in 0545 AM 01/07 Public
Huffs Church 2.0 in 0215 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Bucks County...
Jamison 5.0 in 0532 AM 01/07 Public
Buckingham Twp 4.1 in 0530 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Lower Makefield Twp 4.1 in 0600 AM 01/07 Public
Hilltown Twp 4.0 in 0500 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Bensalem 3.5 in 0554 AM 01/07 Public
...Carbon County...
1 S Meckesville 2.2 in 0300 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Chester County...
East Nantmeal Twp 4.3 in 0600 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
1 WSW Valley Forge 4.1 in 0628 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
New London Twp. 3.9 in 0537 AM 01/07 Public
1 E East Fallowfield Twp 3.3 in 0438 AM 01/07 Public
East Coventry Twp 3.1 in 0623 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Exton 2.9 in 0521 AM 01/07 Public
...Delaware County...
Morton 3.9 in 0611 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Folsom 3.3 in 0544 AM 01/07 Public
1 WNW Wayne 2.5 in 0421 AM 01/07 Public
Morton 1.0 in 0300 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
...Lehigh County...
Breinigsville 3.0 in 0552 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Coopersburg 2.0 in 1127 PM 01/06 Public
Whitehall Twp 1.5 in 1147 PM 01/06 Public
Macungie 1.3 in 1118 PM 01/06 Trained Spotter
Salisbury Twp 1.3 in 1100 PM 01/06 Broadcast Media
Lehigh Valley International 1.2 in 0100 AM 01/07 ASOS
...Monroe County...
Mount Pocono 1.5 in 0506 AM 01/07 Public
...Montgomery County...
New Hanover Twp 3.7 in 0613 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Eagleville 1.9 in 0615 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
Red Hill 1.5 in 0411 AM 01/07 Public
...Northampton County...
Nazareth 3.2 in 0600 AM 01/07 Public
Bangor 2.5 in 0628 AM 01/07 Public
Moore Twp 2.3 in 0530 AM 01/07 Public
...Philadelphia County...
2 NE Northeast Philadelphia 4.0 in 0615 AM 01/07 Public
Germantown 3.8 in 0515 AM 01/07 Public
1 W Philadelphia 3.3 in 0623 AM 01/07 Public
1 SE Point Breeze 3.2 in 0601 AM 01/07 Trained Spotter
&&
Roads are so so. Just had to drive from Scotch Plains to New Brunswick. Nice and empty for the most part so actually made for a peaceful slow drive.
Yea 5" to 6" is, ah fvck, I have to do something
2" to 3," is fvck it, run over it with the car.
Don't forget now, I have a small farm so every animal needs to be dug out. They need to have a place to pee and poop outside of the barns or coop. Labor of love my ass. It's my wife's love and my labor. And to top it off I'm already sore from a big loading dock concrete pour I had yesterday at Twin Pond Farms. This sucks.
~ 5.5” in my part of Belle Mead - measured in multiple spots a few minutes ago.
@Knight Shift and @knightfan7 just as I was writing the previous post the plow came through to add my joy to my life.
Understand. They've been going backand forth here since 6:30. I'm on the last street that floods from Ocean Ave to the Inlet so it's always kept as clear as possible.
Just about 3 inches in Belle Mead, not much at all, but enough for the kids. Probably don't even need to shovel, just push the snow off the driveway and walkway.
WW nailed the forecast, once again!
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