OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RU-05]

@Mr. Gerbz

Didn't find much info on the TCDA definciency issue, but there is this:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...gress-and-news-good-bad-and-ugly-of-biopharma

"The notification sent by the FDA stated that the regulatory agency has found some deficiencies that preclude discussion of labeling and postmarketing requirements/commitments at this time. Gerrit Klaerner, Ph.D., Tricida’s Chief Executive Officer and President, said, “We continue to believe in the potential of veverimer to be disease modifying and our goal is to work with FDA to identify and resolve the issues in order to bring veverimer to patients.” The notification did not specify the deficiencies found by the FDA.


Tricida plans to engage with the FDA and find the resolution for the deficiencies. However, the company currently does not have any plans of modifying or suspending its current confirmatory postmarketing trial, VALOR-CKD. Tricida is currently not in the position to evaluate whether it will be able to address the concerns raised by the FDA or not."

Doesn't sound like a small issue, so maybe selling off a quick rebound(currently up 3.5% in extended) might be the play here.

@RU848789 how bad does the above sound to you?

 

[RU-05]

Seems like gold may be a good buy now with all this chaos

Gold, Silver, Copper, treasuries, bonds. Some good recommendations in the previous pages.

I think it was @BigWill who posted SH, which is a very interesting play IF the market tanks. It spiked in March, it spiked in 2019, it spiked in 2009. But it's otherwise been on a very big downward since it's inception in 2007.

 

[Mr. Gerbz]

@Mr. Gerbz

Didn't find much info on the TCDA definciency issue, but there is this:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...gress-and-news-good-bad-and-ugly-of-biopharma

"The notification sent by the FDA stated that the regulatory agency has found some deficiencies that preclude discussion of labeling and postmarketing requirements/commitments at this time. Gerrit Klaerner, Ph.D., Tricida’s Chief Executive Officer and President, said, “We continue to believe in the potential of veverimer to be disease modifying and our goal is to work with FDA to identify and resolve the issues in order to bring veverimer to patients.” The notification did not specify the deficiencies found by the FDA.


Tricida plans to engage with the FDA and find the resolution for the deficiencies. However, the company currently does not have any plans of modifying or suspending its current confirmatory postmarketing trial, VALOR-CKD. Tricida is currently not in the position to evaluate whether it will be able to address the concerns raised by the FDA or not."

Doesn't sound like a small issue, so maybe selling off a quick rebound(currently up 3.5% in extended) might be the play here.

@RU848789 how bad does the above sound to you?

Yea. Just Took my 8% or so. Might still run but I too often get greedy.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Jamie Dimon on the uncertain economic outlook. Personally, I consider him one of the best CEOs out there financial sector or otherwise...straight shooter too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/18/jamie-dimons-warning-for-the-us-economy.html

 

[T2Kplus10]

Jamie Dimon on the uncertain economic outlook. Personally, I consider him one of the best CEOs out there financial sector or otherwise...straight shooter too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/18/jamie-dimons-warning-for-the-us-economy.html

He has issued numerous warnings over the past few years. He is a good CEO, but his main job is to get ahead of economic downturns. As such, he probably sees too many of them in the future as compared to reality.

 

[mdk01]

He has issued numerous warnings over the past few years. He is a good CEO, but his main job is to get ahead of economic downturns. As such, he probably sees too many of them in the future as compared to reality.

But he is not a "Permabear".

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

He has issued numerous warnings over the past few years. He is a good CEO, but his main job is to get ahead of economic downturns. As such, he probably sees too many of them in the future as compared to reality.

He's a pretty straight shooter but like any high-profile Big Bank chief, especially in NY, he knows he has to play it safe both politically and when talking the company outlook too.

 

[rutgersguy1]

He has issued numerous warnings over the past few years. He is a good CEO, but his main job is to get ahead of economic downturns. As such, he probably sees too many of them in the future as compared to reality.

I don't think he's like that...don't see him as a gloom and doom guy. I think he's conservative in managing his bank in the sense that they prepare for anything and everything but I don't think he's a negative guy. He talks positively about things often, IIRC he bought shares of JPM stock when things weren't going well in the market some time ago and his buy basically helped boost confidence in the stock and the market and everything turned around...they called it like the Dimon bottom IIRC.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I don't think he's like that...don't see him as a gloom and doom guy. I think he's conservative in managing his bank in the sense that they prepare for anything and everything but I don't think he's a negative guy. He talks positively about things often, IIRC he bought shares of JPM stock when things weren't going well in the market some time ago and his buy basically helped boost confidence in the stock and the market and everything turned around...they called it like the Dimon bottom IIRC.

No, he is definitely not doom and gloom, but his job is to avoid potholes, so he anticipates more potholes than what will likely happen. That's just his POV. Nothing wrong with it. I will always read and listen to what he has to say.

 

[rurahrah000]

No, he is definitely not doom and gloom, but his job is to avoid potholes, so he anticipates more potholes than what will likely happen. That's just his POV. Nothing wrong with it. I will always read and listen to what he has to say.

If there weren’t more potholes coming then the government (both Republicans and Democrats) would not be talking about the next 1+ trillion dollar stimulus bill.

 

[rurahrah000]

With another stimulus bill on the horizon and struggling companies, fed is going to print more money. Gold, silver and to a lesser degree treasuries are a better bet. Growth stocks have gone up very quickly and may continue to see somewhat of a pullback in the short term. Value stocks may do better in the next few weeks/months.

 

[93RUDoc]

Tax question, If you sell your stocks within a year for a gain, your gains are subject to the tax bracket you are in ?, but if you sell your securities after at least one year of holding them, you have a lower flat capital gains tax?

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

Tax question, If you sell your stocks within a year for a gain, your gains are subject to the tax bracket you are in ?, but if you sell your securities after at least one year of holding them, you have a lower flat capital gains tax?

Correct. Although if your modified adjusted gross income is high enough, long term capital gains tax may be subject to an additional net investment income tax and Medicare surcharge.

 

[RU-05]

Tax question, If you sell your stocks within a year for a gain, your gains are subject to the tax bracket you are in ?, but if you sell your securities after at least one year of holding them, you have a lower flat capital gains tax?

Yup.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/stocks-and-taxes-what-you-have-to-pay-when#:~:text=Any profit you enjoy from,15% or lower tax bracket.

"Any profit you enjoy from the sale of a stock held for at least a full year is taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, which is lower than the rate applied to your other taxable income. It’s 15% if you are in a 25% or higher tax bracket and only 5% if you are in the 15% or lower tax bracket. Profits from stocks held for less than a year are taxed at your ordinary income tax rate."

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

Yup.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/stocks-and-taxes-what-you-have-to-pay-when#:~:text=Any profit you enjoy from,15% or lower tax bracket.

"Any profit you enjoy from the sale of a stock held for at least a full year is taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, which is lower than the rate applied to your other taxable income. It’s 15% if you are in a 25% or higher tax bracket and only 5% if you are in the 15% or lower tax bracket. Profits from stocks held for less than a year are taxed at your ordinary income tax rate."

I believe the author from Fox is incorrect, there is no 5% long term capital gains tax. Its 0%, 15%, or 20% depending on tax bracket (excluding possible NIIT and Medicare surcharge).

 

[RU-05]

If there weren’t more potholes coming then the government (both Republicans and Democrats) would not be talking about the next 1+ trillion dollar stimulus bill.

Ya, large swaths of the economy are getting crushed right now with no end in sight. Granted other segments of the economy have thrived, but this is beyond an uneven road, and beyond potholes, many roads are undrivable.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I believe the author from Fox is incorrect, there is no 5% long term capital gains tax. Its 0%, 15%, or 20% depending on tax bracket (excluding possible NIIT and Medicare surcharge).

That is correct:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrae/2020/01/13/new-capital-gains-rates-for-2020/#45705d0c43eb

 

[RU-05]

I believe the author from Fox is incorrect, there is no 5% long term capital gains tax. Its 0%, 15%, or 20% depending on tax bracket (excluding possible NIIT and Medicare surcharge).

Old link perhaps?

First thing that came up on Google.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Updated charts:

Here are five charts illustrating U.S. economic trends amid the coronavirus pandemic

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/19/five-charts-illustrating-us-economic-trends-amid-coronavirus.html

 

[RU-05]

Updated charts:

Here are five charts illustrating U.S. economic trends amid the coronavirus pandemic

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/19/five-charts-illustrating-us-economic-trends-amid-coronavirus.html

Doesn't paint a good picture.

 

[Joey Bags]

Updated charts:

Here are five charts illustrating U.S. economic trends amid the coronavirus pandemic

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/19/five-charts-illustrating-us-economic-trends-amid-coronavirus.html

The airlines chart is brutal. One of the outcomes of the pandemic is we will be transitioning to a largely immobile society, sadly. Traveling was one of my favorite things to save up for.

 

[T2Kplus10]

The airlines chart is brutal. One of the outcomes of the pandemic is we will be transitioning to a largely immobile society, sadly. Traveling was one of my favorite things to save up for.

+1
Air travel is still down about 75% from pre-corona norms. Air travel is probably the last thing my family will be comfortable with. However, contact tracing back to a flight is probably the easiest thing to do. So if there is a problem, we will know very soon (or should already). This may be a perception vs reality issue.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Ya, large swaths of the economy are getting crushed right now with no end in sight. Granted other segments of the economy have thrived, but this is beyond an uneven road, and beyond potholes, many roads are undrivable.

Lots of bankruptcies ahead, loan defaults, etc. Hang on....

 

[RU-05]

Lots of bankruptcies ahead, loan defaults, etc. Hang on....

Ya and I assume that's what Dimon was alluding too.

Now imo, the next wave of federal intervention should target those industries, Mnuchin said something to that effect just recently, so maybe they can kick that can down the road to a point where we have a vaccine or treatments or mutations or whatever.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Ya and I assume that's what Dimon was alluding too.

Now imo, the next wave of federal intervention should target those industries, Mnuchin said something to that effect just recently, so maybe they can kick that can down the road to a point where we have a vaccine or treatments or mutations or whatever.

Some businesses are undeserving of continued public/Fed assistance. They were put on life support via low-cost/no-cost loans or outright financial support. Got to let them go.

 

[RU-05]

Some businesses are undeserving of continued public/Fed assistance. They were put on life support via low-cost/no-cost loans or outright financial support. Got to let them go.

Maybe there are some, but I'm looking at bars and restaurants as a sector that was doing just fine prior, but because of Covid, can barely open their doors.

Airlines too, though they look OK for a year or so.

 

[rurahrah000]

+1
Air travel is still down about 75% from pre-corona norms. Air travel is probably the last thing my family will be comfortable with. However, contact tracing back to a flight is probably the easiest thing to do. So if there is a problem, we will know very soon (or should already). This may be a perception vs reality issue.

 

[robcac26]

I love Amazon and want to buy more stock, BUT, what happens if the democrats win and they decide to break it up. ( i dont know how that would be done) Does anybody know what might happen to the stock price?

Extremely unlikely considering Amazon has donated over $200,000 to Biden's campaign. The Democrats and Republicans are both corporate puppets.

Back on topic, I don't follow the stock market very much other than the mutual funds I'm invested in. Do the more knowledgeable stock market guys on here think now is a good time to invest in airlines and restaurants, or did I miss the boat on that?

 

[mdk01]

Extremely unlikely considering Amazon has donated over $200,000 to Biden's campaign. The Democrats and Republicans are both corporate puppets.

Back on topic, I don't follow the stock market very much other than the mutual funds I'm invested in. Do the more knowledgeable stock market guys on here think now is a good time to invest in airlines and restaurants, or did I miss the boat on that?

Amazon donated $200k? You mean Amazon or Amazon officers/employees?

 

[robcac26]

Amazon donated $200k? You mean Amazon or Amazon officers/employees?

Just double-checked and you're right, it's not Amazon directly, but Jeff Bezos has donated to both parties, from a quick search it seems most of it is to Democrats. Either way, the Democrats aren't the business-crushing villains the Republican voters think they are, nor are they the opponents of massive corporations that the Democrat voters think they are.

 

[mdk01]

Just double-checked and you're right, it's not Amazon directly, but Jeff Bezos has donated to both parties, from a quick search it seems most of it is to Democrats. Either way, the Democrats aren't the business-crushing villains the Republican voters think they are, nor are they the opponents of massive corporations that the Democrat voters think they are.

Well if the Democrats sweep in November we'll find out in January. And I think you might be changing your tune. We'll see.

 

[rutgersdave]

Some businesses are undeserving of continued public/Fed assistance. They were put on life support via low-cost/no-cost loans or outright financial support. Got to let them go.

Probably 20% of the loans are going to businesses that wouldn’t survive anyway.

I was talking to a waitress that I knew for several years about her situation Saturday and wonder why she was working when there were only a few customers barely enough to work the day. I asked her if she was still collecting unemployment and the $600 week and she said yes. When the $600 a week ends, she won’t be able to pay her bills. She said she will need to collect the meal that I didn’t finished as leftover. It’s going to be very painful for a lot of people.

It’s like there are two classes of people, the ones the virus really affected and the ones that even actually benefit by working from home and save transportation cost and child care cost. It appears that almost everyone of the board isn’t affected by the financial burden.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Probably 20% of the loans are going to businesses that wouldn’t survive anyway.

I was talking to a waitress that I knew for several years about her situation Saturday and wonder why she was working when there were only a few customers barely enough to work the day. I asked her if she was still collecting unemployment and the $600 week and she said yes. When the $600 a week ends, she won’t be able to pay her bills. She said she will need to collect the meal that I didn’t finished as leftover. It’s going to be very painful for a lot of people.

It’s like there are two classes of people, the ones the virus really affected and the ones that even actually benefit by working from home and save transportation cost and child care cost. It appears that almost everyone of the board isn’t affected by the financial burden.

WFH = :Chop banana:

And it seems like my industry will forever be altered and allow the home office to be a viable option for work (with minimal traditional in-office time).

 

[rutgersdave]

WFH = :Chop banana:

And it seems like my industry will forever be altered and allow the home office to be a viable option for work (with minimal traditional in-office time).

Most of my younger relatives are working from home or haven’t been hurt too much by the virus( some furlough). However, I think there will be a next phase in the next 6 months where companies will determine if they need that many white collar workers and start more layoffs. I hope it doesn’t affect my family members.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Most of my younger relatives are working from home or haven’t been hurt too much by the virus( some furlough). However, I think there will be a next phase in the next 6 months where companies will determine if they need that many white collar workers and start more layoffs. I hope it doesn’t affect my family members.

I doubt companies will layoff just because. There has been enough economic churn to keep workforce sizes appropriate. Surely, there will be some companies that are too fat, but I don't that will be the norm.

 

[robcac26]

Well if the Democrats sweep in November we'll find out in January. And I think you might be changing your tune. We'll see.

The Democrats had all three branches at the beginning of Obama's presidency, and I don't remember there being any legislation to reign in big business despite their constituents clamoring for it. Both major parties are funded by corporations, generally speaking they're not going to burn that bridge by passing laws that will significantly hurt them. If Sanders were the nominee then maybe you'd have a point, but Biden isn't a guy whose going to lead a charge against big business.

"Obama’s administration let big-bank executives off the hook for their roles in the crisis. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) referred criminal cases to the Justice Department and was ignored. Whistleblowers from the government and from large banks noted a lack of appetite among prosecutors. In 2012, then-Attorney General Eric Holder ordered prosecutors not to go after mega-bank HSBC for money laundering. Using prosecutorial discretion to not take bank executives to task, while legal, was neither moral nor politically wise; in a 2013 poll, more than half of Americans still said they wanted the bankers behind the crisis punished. But the Obama administration failed to act, and this pattern seems to be continuing. No one, for instance, from Wells Fargo has been indicted for mass fraud in opening fake accounts."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/post...gnize-how-bad-obamas-financial-policies-were/

 

[T2Kplus10]

The Democrats had all three branches at the beginning of Obama's presidency, and I don't remember there being any legislation to reign in big business despite their constituents clamoring for it. Both major parties are funded by corporations, generally speaking they're not going to burn that bridge by passing laws that will significantly hurt them. If Sanders were the nominee then maybe you'd have a point, but Biden isn't a guy whose going to lead a charge against big business.

"Obama’s administration let big-bank executives off the hook for their roles in the crisis. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) referred criminal cases to the Justice Department and was ignored. Whistleblowers from the government and from large banks noted a lack of appetite among prosecutors. In 2012, then-Attorney General Eric Holder ordered prosecutors not to go after mega-bank HSBC for money laundering. Using prosecutorial discretion to not take bank executives to task, while legal, was neither moral nor politically wise; in a 2013 poll, more than half of Americans still said they wanted the bankers behind the crisis punished. But the Obama administration failed to act, and this pattern seems to be continuing. No one, for instance, from Wells Fargo has been indicted for mass fraud in opening fake accounts."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/post...gnize-how-bad-obamas-financial-policies-were/

It may change, but up until now, both parties have been beholden to big business and WS. The Dems just try to hide it.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Earnings reports coming in better than expected:

Dow jumps 250 points, IBM and Coca-Cola lead after earnings
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/20/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

 

[albanyknight]

My overall earning on our portfolio has significantly gone down the past two weeks to about 3 1/2%. Not bad, but not good either.

Just curious if other folks are experiencing the same?

 

[RU-05]

My overall earning on our portfolio has significantly gone down the past two weeks to about 3 1/2%. Not bad, but not good either.

Just curious if other folks are experiencing the same?

I finally got rolling again over the past 2 weeks. The previous month went from bad to meh.