OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RU-05]

I bought mlm, etn and cat when infrastructure $ started, looks like might be slowing down due to nothing being passed and different definitions of infrastructure in the bill

I also owned DE, but sold that a month or so ago, which was pretty good timing as it has trended downwards since.

Interested to see how OSK holds up.

I still own a lot of material plays, been thinking of transitioning away from them and more towards some of the downtrodden tech names. OLN being a big winner, which may be nearing the end of it's run? Not going to do that yet, but thinking about it.

 

[mdk01]

Agreed. Selling naked calls (or uncovered calls) means you don’t own any shares of the underlying security so you’d potentially have to purchase shares at the then market value. Theoretically, the exposure and risk is huge and unlimited.

As I said earlier Schwab wouldn't let me. But again tell me if I'm wrong. Sell the option and get $700. As unlikely as it seems, between now and June 11 GME goes from 240 to 360. The option at 350 gets called. I have to essentially buy 100 shares at 360 to meet the call. I receive 350 in proceeds, $1000 less than I paid for the stock . I received $700 when I sold the option, so I'm down net $300. And if it had gone to to 370 I'd have been down $1,300.

Am I right?

 

[RU-05]

As I said earlier Schwab wouldn't let me. But again tell me if I'm wrong. Sell the option and get $700. As unlikely as it seems, between now and June 11 GME goes from 240 to 360. The option at 350 gets called. I have to essentially buy 100 shares at 360 to meet the call. I receive 350 in proceeds, $1000 less than I paid for the stock . I received $700 when I sold the option, so I'm down net $300. And if it had gone to to 370 I'd have been down $1,300.

Am I right?

Man, I can tell I'm a ways off from actually playing the options game.

 

[rurahrah000]

As I said earlier Schwab wouldn't let me. But again tell me if I'm wrong. Sell the option and get $700. As unlikely as it seems, between now and June 11 GME goes from 240 to 360. The option at 350 gets called. I have to essentially buy 100 shares at 360 to meet the call. I receive 350 in proceeds, $1000 less than I paid for the stock . I received $700 when I sold the option, so I'm down net $300. And if it had gone to to 370 I'd have been down $1,300.

Am I right?

Yes, you are right minus fees.

 

[RUDead]

Man, I can tell I'm a ways off from actually playing the options game.

Leave futures and options to the pros. Like a casino, the house has an imbedded advantage.

 

[RU-05]

Two tech names I'm going to start initial positions on.

1)WISH. IPO'd in Dec at $24, ran up to $32 and has completely tanked since down to $8, in part because of the overall growth tech swoon, but also because of a poor qtr in which it had a bigger then expected loss and rev's were down(slightly) qtr over qtr. Still p/s is cheap, 20% growth expected, as is going from red to green in terms of earnings by 2023. It either is, or was a falling knife, I'm hoping it's the latter and I'm grabbing it at the bottom.

2)SRAX. 100m market cap, no earnings, big revenue growth. Current p/s of 12x, but expected 2021 p/e of 4x. Was a $10 stock back in late 2015. But rev's tanked(not sure the why on that) and dropped as below $2 a share in 2017, got back to $5 but tanked again late 2019 to below $2. Has really started to run since Oct and is now at $4.70. Like the rev growth, the p/s multiple, and the momentum. Potential resistance at $5, but may have cleared some of that out in early March.

 

[mdk01]

Yes, you are right minus fees.

If you have authorization Schwab fees wouldn't be enough to buy a cup of Starbucks. Not sure about Dunkin.

 

[T2Kplus20]

aight children settle down.

The child has been officially placed on "ignore". Onwards for the last 2 market days before the holiday weekend.

 

[mdk01]

Leave futures and options to the pros. Like a casino, the house has an imbedded advantage.

And the "house" doesn't have an advantage with penny stocks?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Two tech names I'm going to start initial positions on.

1)WISH. IPO'd in Dec at $24, ran up to $32 and has completely tanked since down to $8, in part because of the overall growth tech swoon, but also because of a poor qtr in which it had a bigger then expected loss and rev's were down(slightly) qtr over qtr. Still p/s is cheap, 20% growth expected, as is going from red to green in terms of earnings by 2023. It either is, or was a falling knife, I'm hoping it's the latter and I'm grabbing it at the bottom.

2)SRAX. 100m market cap, no earnings, big revenue growth. Current p/s of 12x, but expected 2021 p/e of 4x. Was a $10 stock back in late 2015. But rev's tanked(not sure the why on that) and dropped as below $2 a share in 2017, got back to $5 but tanked again late 2019 to below $2. Has really started to run since Oct and is now at $4.70. Like the rev growth, the p/s multiple, and the momentum. Potential resistance at $5, but may have cleared some of that out in early March.

Wasn't WISH a SPAC? Doesn't look to be profitable for a while. I believe they are mostly playing in Europe, right?

 

[RU-05]

And the "house" doesn't have an advantage with penny stocks?

I cleaned the house's clock on pennies in 2020.

I was up 3000% on ABML for instance.

That market has dried up though.

 

[RU-05]

Wasn't WISH a SPAC? Doesn't look to be profitable for a while. I believe they are mostly playing in Europe, right?

No they IPO'd.

And looks like they were the 3rd biggest e-commerce marketplace in the US in 2019.

 

[RUDead]

And the "house" doesn't have an advantage with penny stocks?

Never said anything about penny stocks.

Anyone can have an informational advantage, I was referring to the instrument structure. Stocks are a simple structure. Futures and options give the pros a big advantage beyond the informational advantage they already have.

 

[RU-05]

Came out flying this morning, materials all over the top of my board.

TELL still flying, I didn't trim yesterday, but I might today as it is up 22% and has quickly grown into my 2nd largest holding.

Edit: Sold off what I bought 2 weeks ago at an 80% gain. Freaking nailed it. Still holding my original position. If it dips significantly in the next couple days I'll add again.

REI was slow to follow TELL's lead in the fall. Maybe it follow's it again here?

 

[RUJohnny99]

The key word in your post is THEORECTICALLY. Just like THEORETICALLY, every stock can go up unlimited.

And THEORETICALLY, I was forced to cash out a guy's entire $400,000 portfolio to cover his losses on uncovered TSLA $125 Oct20 calls he wrote in February 2020 thinking he was smarter than everyone else.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

Being described as a doorstop is not good advertising.

1 million pre-orders.
Your logical fallacy, same with the model Y...It's not about you.

 

[mdk01]

And THEORETICALLY, I was forced to cash out a guy's entire $400,000 portfolio to cover his losses on uncovered TSLA $125 Oct20 calls he wrote in February 2020 thinking he was smarter than everyone else.

And that was an 8 month time period. How many times does that happen when it's 15 days and the calls written for 50% above the current price (which is at a 60 day high) ?

 

[RU-05]

And THEORETICALLY, I was forced to cash out a guy's entire $400,000 portfolio to cover his losses on uncovered TSLA $125 Oct20 calls he wrote in February 2020 thinking he was smarter than everyone else.

So some options for dummies questions here.

An uncovered vs covered call?

Is naked the same as uncovered?

In your example, if he was covered, would he have had to sell his TSLA stock at $120, but uncovered, he had to buy TSLA and market at then sell at $120? (if this is correct, then I answered my first question).

 

[RU-05]

1 million pre-orders.
Your logical fallacy, same with the model Y...It's not about you.

I hate to even delve into the TSLA debates, but:

When is the cyber truck expected to actually be on the road?

How long did it take to reach 1 million pre-orders?

 

[RU-05]

And that was an 8 month time period. How many times does that happen when it's 15 days and the calls written for 50% above the current price (which is at a 60 day high) ?

But given you are in a WSB's play historical references are probably not applicable.

Now if it hits that $350 level for even a minute, are you forced to cover?

 

[mdk01]

But given you are in a WSB's play historical references are probably not applicable.

Now if it hits that $350 level for even a minute, are you forced to cover?

I have never even looked at WSB

 

[RU-05]

I have never even looked at WSB

But you know GME is a WSB play correct?

 

[RU-05]

So BIDU is one of the chinese companies I've owned over the past couple months, that thus far is in the red.

Now rev's and earnings over the past couple years have been pretty flat, and the stock price has been pretty flat over the past couple years as well. But future rev's and earnings are expected, at least according to E-Trade, to grow and a very healthy rate.

Am I to believe E-trade on this, stay patient and wait for this thing to find traction? Or cut my losses now?

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

I hate to even delve into the TSLA debates, but:

When is the cyber truck expected to actually be on the road?

How long did it take to reach 1 million pre-orders?

Production should start late this year or early next. Factory still under construction + lots of other variables (new battery cells, supply chain issues, new manufacturing tech). So, we'll see about that timeline.

They just recently crossed over 1 million pre-orders. Apparently, there was a big surge of orders following the Ford Lightning reveal.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Production should start late this year or early next. Factory still under construction + lots of other variables (new battery cells, supply chain issues, new manufacturing tech). So, we'll see about that timeline.

They just recently crossed over 1 million pre-orders. Apparently, there was a big surge of orders following the Ford Lightning reveal.

What giga plant is going to produce the cybertruck?

 

[RUJohnny99]

And that was an 8 month time period. How many times does that happen when it's 15 days and the calls written for 50% above the current price (which is at a 60 day high) ?

85% of options expire worthless. But for every big winner, there's someone on the other side of the trade.

 

[mdk01]

85% of options expire worthless. But for every big winner, there's someone on the other side of the trade.

I did a little digging and I think this was a case of the old bull, bears and pigs. Tesla was at $150 in early February so those options were already in the money. BIG payday if the stock went back down. But he was losing money as soon as it went up another 10%, not 60%. And he was at risk for 8 months, not 15 days.

 

[RUJohnny99]

Yeah, but it's illustrative to newbies of the risk in options strategies. And don't cry for the guy. If he couldn't handle the loss, he wouldn't be approved for the strategy.

Back in 00 when options only settled monthly, I was working the front desk at a Schwab office and a bull market genius explained how he wrote 2 month puts instead of limit orders, getting paid to buy stock on discount, yadda yadda. There was a high flier called AtHome dot com that was gonna broadband America. He was assigned the stock at $20 when the market price was $6.75. LOL

 

[RU-05]

F still climbing.

And GE right there with it.

Cramer had a little bit last year when these guys were around $7 or $8, F vs GE with a finish line at $10. And they have traded very closely ever since. F up 6.87% today, GE up 6,53%. Ford currently at $14.85, GE at $14.27.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

What giga plant is going to produce the cybertruck?

Austin.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

Ford’s F Series trucks have been its best-selling vehicle for 44 years, with annual volumes exceeding 600,000 units. I think the Cybertruck is interesting but the novelty will wear off. Then you have Rivian, GM Hummer, etc. Only time will tell.

No doubt the F series is a huge success. According to Ford, the Lightning is going to be "the best F150 ever made".
If you want to sell a lot of EVs, you need a lot of batteries. I can't emphasize this enough. That's the part of the equation you, and most of the media are missing.

 

[RU-05]

No doubt the F series is a huge success. According to Ford, the Lightning is going to be "the best F150 ever made".
If you want to sell a lot of EVs, you need a lot of batteries. I can't emphasize this enough. That's the part of the equation you, and most of the media are missing.

F will invest 30B into EV by 2025. I imagine a fair amount of that will be for producing batteries.

 

[patk89]

Selling a covered upside call when you don’t think the stock is going to go up will generate cash for you. Same as dividend. I used the same philosophy with TSLA at $800-900. It generated income of more than 20% which was then deployed elsewhere. This also allows you to create income stream from growth stocks that don’t have dividends. The risk is that you can be wrong and the stock will go up and you will get called. That’s why selling naked calls in a highly volatile stock can be dangerous. If the millennials decide to put all of their stimulus check into GME then the stock could skyrocket. It only has to be up above the strike price for a moment and you could lose big.

I rarely utilize options but have had some shares called away when the price jumped more than I expected. Remember, the premium you get paid to sell an option to someone else is based on the strike price and the length of time that the option is effective. I sold them at price well above the current stock price, good for 6 months, and rec'd the premium. But, shares outperformed my expectations, and I gave away the upside. As always, no free lunch.

 

[T2Kplus20]

F will invest 30B into EV by 2025. I imagine a fair amount of that will be for producing batteries.

The demo that loves F150s is also a demo that hates EVs for political reasons. Can't imagine many good ole boys will be buying a Lighting model. LOL!

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

F will invest 30B into EV by 2025. I imagine a fair amount of that will be for producing batteries.

I remain doubtful. Ford isn't making their own cells and they currently only have one supplier (SK Innovation out of S Korea). Also, Ford is going with pouch cells which are much slower to produce vs cylindrical cells. Have they given any guidance as to how many GWh by 2025?

The Mach E Mustang is extremely popular, and from everything I read and hear it's really a great car. But, Ford is limiting production. I suspect they're losing their shirts on every one. Add to that, dealerships don't want them because of the tiny margins, no maintenance, no service. The Lightning will suffer the same fate. Dealerships + EVs doesn't work.

Ford and every other OEM have to cannibalize themselves in order to transition to EVs. Tesla isn't the competition. Their own ICE business is. And they make a hell of a lot more $ on an ICE vehicle vs an EV. Iirc, we're on the total opposite side of the fence when it comes to the future of Ford and GM. You're investing, and I'm predicting bankruptcy.

And, btw, I hope I'm wrong. We need to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy.

 

[RU-05]

The demo that loves F150s is also a demo that hates EVs for political reasons. Can't imagine many good ole boys will be buying a Lighting model. LOL!

That's a broad stroke statement. Some may not be ready, some may.

And do note Ford wants to be 40% EV by 2030. Which leaves 60% ICE so plenty of room for those that want gas power.

 

[RU-05]

I remain doubtful. Ford isn't making their own cells and they currently only have one supplier (SK Innovation out of S Korea). Also, Ford is going with pouch cells which are much slower to produce vs cylindrical cells. Have they given any guidance as to how many GWh by 2025?

The Mach E Mustang is extremely popular, and from everything I read and hear it's really a great car. But, Ford is limiting production. I suspect they're losing their shirts on every one. Add to that, dealerships don't want them because of the tiny margins, no maintenance, no service. The Lightning will suffer the same fate.

Ford and every other OEM have to cannibalize themselves in order to transition to EVs. Tesla isn't the competition. Their own ICE business is. And they make a hell of a lot more $ on an ICE vehicle vs an EV. Iirc, we're on the total opposite side of the fence when it comes to the future of Ford and GM. You're investing, and I'm predicting bankruptcy.

And, btw, I hope I'm wrong. We need to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy.

Except Farley expects margins to increase to 8%.

Edit:
"By 2030, Ford expects to produce up to 140 gigawatt (GWh) hours of energy for battery cells annually in North America and up to 240 GWh globally.

In the U.S., the companies plan to initially produce up to 60 GWh a year. That would be enough power for about 600,000 of automaker’s electric Mustang Mach-E crossover, Hau Thai-Tang, Ford’s chief product platform and operations officer, told the media during a call Thursday."

 

[RU-05]

Two tech names I'm going to start initial positions on.

1)WISH. IPO'd in Dec at $24, ran up to $32 and has completely tanked since down to $8, in part because of the overall growth tech swoon, but also because of a poor qtr in which it had a bigger then expected loss and rev's were down(slightly) qtr over qtr. Still p/s is cheap, 20% growth expected, as is going from red to green in terms of earnings by 2023. It either is, or was a falling knife, I'm hoping it's the latter and I'm grabbing it at the bottom.

2)SRAX. 100m market cap, no earnings, big revenue growth. Current p/s of 12x, but expected 2021 p/e of 4x. Was a $10 stock back in late 2015. But rev's tanked(not sure the why on that) and dropped as below $2 a share in 2017, got back to $5 but tanked again late 2019 to below $2. Has really started to run since Oct and is now at $4.70. Like the rev growth, the p/s multiple, and the momentum. Potential resistance at $5, but may have cleared some of that out in early March.

Up 5% and 10% respectively today.

 

[T2Kplus20]

The Mach E Mustang is extremely popular, and from everything I read and hear it's really a great car. But, Ford is limiting production. I suspect they're losing their shirts on every one. Add to that, dealerships don't want them because of the tiny margins, no maintenance, no service. The Lightning will suffer the same fate. Dealerships + EVs doesn't work.

Bingo! Great post.

 

[T2Kplus20]

That's a broad stroke statement. Some may not be ready, some may.

And do note Ford wants to be 40% EV by 2030. Which leaves 60% ICE so plenty of room for those that want gas power.

A house divided against itself cannot stand.