OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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I think what RaRa is saying is that if you think this is the bottom, sell puts, not calls.
I know, I've been talking about this support level, but being frustrated with the stock and looking at the potential for tax harvesting had me itchy.
I do wonder about saturation. Just so many fintech options.
I know, I've been talking about this support level, but being frustrated with the stock and looking at the potential for tax harvesting had me itchy.
I do wonder about saturation. Just so many fintech options.
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Hope nobody owns cruise stocks!
www.cnbc.com
U.S. CDC says people should 'avoid cruise travel, regardless of vaccination status'
The CDC is currently investigating or observing dozens of cruise ships that have had Covid outbreaks.
I have a different philosophy when it comes to tax-loss harvesting. 2021 was an amazing year with an insane amount of short term capital gains. Instead of selling stocks that I felt had good long term potential but were in the red, I chose a different strategy. I chose to try to hit a home run with some fringe stocks that I didn't mind losing money to offset my gains. I bought a sizable amount of TLRY and SNDL with the hopes that the NDAA would pass in the senate with the SAFE act in it. If that was to happen, I anticipated a large run up in TLRY and SNDL and I would use the proceeds from that gain to pay capital gains tax. Since the SAFE act was removed by the senate, TLRY and SNDL crashed and I sold at a loss to offset some of my capital gains. In the end, the losses in TLRY and SNDL did not hurt me much since I would have used those loses to pay taxes in the first place.
What perplexes me about your strategy is that you have a strong support level for SOFI at $14-15 level which suggests a near term bounce up in the stock. If you sell calls against that support then you are significantly limiting your upside. Why would you settle for a 5% gain when 30-50% gain is in sight?
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I think "T" is one that has been mentioned. A lot of high dividend, high cash flow stocks are in the healthcare, financials and energy space.
Healthcare - ABBV, BMY, GILD, GSK, VRTX, LLY are good plays that come with less risks. I still believe in some hospital stocks even though I got it wrong at the last earnings report. HCA, THC, UHS are good plays there. I like CYH, but that is much riskier. Hospital stocks don't fit the high dividends and high cash flow stocks.
Energy space is tricky because of the ESG implications, but CVX, XOM are good. I am looking closely at HESM but have not pulled the trigger. There are other hight beta with potential high alpha stocks in that space as well.
Financial space would the usual ones - C, JPM, MS, BAC, GS.
I think these are all trades and not necessarily investments. I think at some point next year when inflation has eased and rate hike fears has abated or if there is good enough opportunity, I will look to go back into growth stocks.
Citigroup looks interesting - it’s taken a beating in the last 6 months. Hit $80 earlier in the year and then steadily dropped to $60 and has hovered there. 3.38% dividend.
I always find it hard to compare my stock portfolio to S&P 500 b/c there are times I’m ahead and times I’m behind and there are positions that take longer to gain traction.
BTW, I’m starting to really like Citigroup. Should benefit from rising interest rates, has a nice dividend, low P/E, and could be a safe haven if 1H22 is rocky.
I only look at it as a whole (equities, fixed income and cash). Target return is 7%. Will run numbers this weekend.
Another great investment year! Looks like I will be around +25% (with the S&P just under +27%).
This doesn't include my crypto portfolio up around 70%, but this a just a small fun account.
It's always a nice benchmark, but yes, sometimes it isn't the best one to use. One of my top funds is an asset allocation fund that attempts to match the S&P return on a risk adjusted basis (PRWCX). We will be using this more and more as retirement age approached. It has a nice balance of appreciation and volatility.
Meh, should have been better! :)
For reference, VOO was up 28.8% in 2021. Our retirement portfolio came in at 26.5% due to our best performers:
SOXX (+44%)
TRVLX, IVKIX, and other value funds/etfs
Various S&P 500 and R1K funds and etfs
IWF (R1K growth) - 27.4% (top growth focused investment)
My 12 stocks were up 40-45%, but I bought at a major dip in early March so tough to compare to the S&P. Only 1 stock is in the red (TWLO). Crypto portfolio ended up +72% even with the recent weakness. Powered by ETHE and Galaxy Dig.
Looking forward to 2022!!!
I prefer to look at it from a total portfolio perspective.
Your definition of total portfolio is different than mine. I actually include cash and fixed income, not just equities.
Currently, we have no fixed income or bond investments except for what is included in PRWCX. Plenty of cash, but still over 20% return if that is included.
You missed out on some nice gains this year.
Very happy for you. My portfolio is setup to my risk tolerance and exceeding my target returns. I don’t have FOMO but do have FOLM.
I was interested in that as well, but with the purchase limit and changing rates, we decided not to. Still a great option.
Definitely understand. We feel too conservative for our ages, but the brute force of our saving rate makes going nuts unnecessary. Even our stocks are long holds. Only crypto is YOLO, but that is a very small portion of our investments.
However, we are going to move those CDs to a taxable brokerage account and invest in a combo of VIG, VOO, VUG, and VTV. That's a step in the right direction for us!
Well they were short term, I wasn't expecting a 10% bounce the very next day.
And I do wonder about that 30-50% gain. Could it run back up? Sure, but could it go the other way and break support? That's possible too.
It's not especially cheap even at these levels. 14x sales. Not projected to be profitable until 2024. Pretty expensive really, and the market has not taken kindly to these expensive stocks of late.
Don’t want to beat a dead horse since we have had this discussion before. Just make sure the option trade you put on will perform if the underlying stock does what you think it will do.
SOFI is definitely still expensive, even though it has bounced between $14 and $24 several times. With Fed action looming, I believe valuations will continue to compress on price/sales companies for the Q1 and maybe Q2. I am interested in buying SOFI, but feel it will come down more.
FYI - my crypto account is going to include some trading. It's a taxable account, but since we are now at Jan 1, we can worry about taxes later. :)
KABOOM! TSLA crushes 4Q deliveries, blows away street estimates.
www.cnbc.com
Wow.
Tesla delivered 936,172 electric vehicles in 2021, with the fourth-quarter setting a new record
Tesla just published its fourth quarter vehicle production and deliveries report for 2021.
Wow.
KABOOM! TSLA crushes 4Q deliveries, blows away street estimates.
Tesla delivered 936,172 electric vehicles in 2021, with the fourth-quarter setting a new record
Tesla just published its fourth quarter vehicle production and deliveries report for 2021.
Wow.
87% growth yoy is pretty good.
But full year total deliveries matching analyst's expectations to the number?
Beat on both, Q4 and annual:
According to a consensus compiled by FactSet, Wall Street analysts had anticipated Tesla deliveries of 267,000 in the fourth quarter and 897,000 for all of 2021.
I wish I bought more of TSLA last March. However, I own a boatload more via my funds and ETFs.
Fell short of the million mark Musk wanted. But not bad results. Now the tough part comes on the 50% yoy growth.KABOOM! TSLA crushes 4Q deliveries, blows away street estimates.
Tesla delivered 936,172 electric vehicles in 2021, with the fourth-quarter setting a new record
Tesla just published its fourth quarter vehicle production and deliveries report for 2021.
Wow.
I would buy it if I agree with Musk on 20mm annual sales in 9 years. But I don’t, just like I didn’t think they could hit a million in 2021.
It's in the CNBC article, so I assume it is accurate. 87% growth in car deliveries (2020 vs 2021). That works!
Great results - and perhaps in 5 years TSLA grows into its current valuation. Funny that they just recalled 475K cars and announced delivery of 936K.
You do this same shit every quarter, and you're NEVER correct. Find a quote where Elon gave guidance for 1 million vehicles in 2021.
You won't. The only guidance Tesla gives over, and over, and over is 50% annual growth. Mission accomplished. Blowout quarter, blowout year. 2022 is going to be even better.
Most of which are voluntary recalls for the 3. I got an email yesterday. I'm not concerned and won't be scheduling an appointment.
The S recalls (~100K) are more serious.
And great analysis. Keep looking backwards at hyper growth. Maybe you'll jump in 5 years from now.
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