OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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I’m thinking there is more pain to come but nothing wrong with nibbling.
I'll buy at $60! :)
I think TWLO is a good company and getting caught up in the ARK mess.
Corrections happen and playing the volatility has made me an insane amount of money. But yes, in general the stock market always goes up.
They have already crapped and many have bailed; but not saying that it can’t get worse. Read an article in the Financial Times this morning, that although the ARKK fund is up on a percentage basis over the history of the fund, there has been more money lost on the fund than earned. The fund balance exploded in the second half of 2020 and early 2021, so a lot of money was used to buy the stocks in the fund near their high.
You are 100% correct and a fact often overlooked when folks talk about ARKK performance.
I have been torn on PLTR. I believe they have a great product, but may not be a good company, if that makes sense.
From what I recall, their share structure is not investor friendly. Insiders also hold a lot of stock and they continue to dump it.
This is a completely different situation than 6 months ago. 6 months ago, if PLTR dropped to $15, I would have bought hand over fist, but not today. I don't think people realize how much of the growth stocks were propped up by the Fed policy and low interest rates. There will be a re-rating of these growth stocks. I would be very careful about judging future PE's based on data from 6 months ago. You already saw some of the re-adjustment this morning by LULU.
Did the Techs hit bottom? I see all my stocks rebounded from their low. Brought a little more AMZN, NVDA and CRM
The last time the Fed started raising rates every quarter (2017) the market and tech had a monster year. Emotional people just need to process the policy change. Rev and performance will just keep getting better. And yes, inflation will inflect down soon and then KABOOM. Don't miss out.
Last Friday was fun. This morning was "funner". Perhaps tomorrow will be "funnerer"! :)
But the silly emotions will end sooner or later. They always do.
I don't know if it's hit bottom yet, I tend to think there's more to come. But I think it's a process and some of the high valuation stocks probably need to be reined a little more. I generally stick with large cap/megacap names whether it's the tech sector (MSFT, APPL, GOOGL, FB etc..)or other sectors because that's my risk tolerance for my own trading. If you stay with those names and you've had 15% plus downside move even if it does go down more I'd like to think they will come around again over the long haul. Right now imo, it's a valuation/PE issue rather than a fundamentals issue for a lot of names. If they're still growing and still making money that in the end that will pull you through over the long term even if there's more downside. That being said I do my best to get things as cheap as I can lol.
If CPI comes in higher then expected (I believe on Wed), more pullback. If it comes in less, KABOOM! I believe inflation readings will start trending down in the next few months, especially due to the base effect.
Part of the reason why I only bought a little, but cant complain with my 6.0% return in a few hours.
+1
It was a nice day for everyone that manned up and bought this morning. What other companies are you tracking?
As I posted last Friday, I thought SWN had room to run. Bought some at 4.41 and 4.42 last Thursday. Was flat on Friday, but had a nice run this afternoon. I think it could run more, based on past volatility, but this is not a long-term hold. I trade it regularly; very volatile, but seems to move in the same range. Nat Gas prices are good, so as their Nat gas hedges role off in 2022, they will be able to roll them over at higher rates. Not locked in on anything else, but holding what I have and will look to buy cautiously on any dips.
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Looks like I locked in my refi just at the right time. Had a 7/1 ARM 2.375% that resets in 9/2023. Was thinking about just paying it off if rates spike at that time. Ultimately decided on a 30 year fixed at 2.50%. Figured that I should be able to do better than 2.50% in the long run. My only risk is if I move in the short term.
Savings/cash still at a recent ATH. And cash right now has a nice 6-7% tax on it called inflation. If you want good returns, still no other place to go to the vast majority of people. It's the stock market or under the mattress.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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WOW, if you locked in 2.50% on a 30 year you likely will never have to touch that. How the hell did you get 2.50%?! Are you a veteran?
I use to trade ALGN whenever it went down 12-15% and wait till it recovered. The current PE is 59 even though it almost down 200 points (26%from the high) and with the interest rate environment, I don’t know the appropriate adjusted PE. It appears close to the low 494 so it might be time to nibble and buy some.
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+1
Keeps bouncing off that bottom support line. I guess $180'ish is the floor with no additional sellers.
There's trendline support in that area and it's danced around it a bit multiple times and held until yesterday. It looked like that might have been a clear break but nope it retook it in the afternoon and now back above. Eventually, it might break down or out from that low-mid 180s to low mid 190s range but it's gone up and down in that range a handful of times. I've only traded it twice though. To me though doing things like that multiple times is as good as if it goes 20, 30 or whatever many dollars. It's all the same.
Plus I think there's some cushion on the downside in that it's already 40% or so off the highs and there's support in that 155-170ish area. So if it did break down possibly a limit to the downside risk. I probably should trade it more than I have but I'm just conservative and chicken about things lol.
Wow 2.5% that is awesome. I have 2.75% refi on a jumbo loan where I took cash out for home remodel and cheap borrowing. Cost me very little after the amount I saved per month on cashing out and getting the lower rate compared to what I was paying
Now I have to look into the tax issues...I know if I use all of it for home remodel I can writeoff the interest but not sure if that all has to be done in year 1 or not especially with how crazy the market is for contractors and costs right now
May be a good play. PYPL is on my watch list and I can close to buying a few days ago. However, I needed to top off some of my other high conviction plays before jumping into something new.
By the way, ARK Invest is holding their monthly webinar. They just spent 15 mins making the case for inflation trending down very quickly (i.e., it will not be sustained). They did a good job via economic data and a guest speaker from another firm.
Something to watch for. If inflation trends down sooner/quickly than expected, the market and tech will be BOOM. Plan wisely.
Something to watch for. If inflation trends down sooner/quickly than expected, the market and tech will be BOOM. Plan wisely.
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