OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Bonuses hit on Tuesday, market was way up yesterday. Still not at the lows. I'm watching closely!
Excellent quarter for MRVL! Semis rocking it:
Marvell Technology (MRVL) reported better-than-expected results in its fiscal fourth-quarter 2022 release after the closing bell Thursday. Record revenue of $1.343 billion, up 68% year over year, outpaced expectations of $1.32 billion while adjusted per-share earnings of $0.50, beat the $0.48-per-share consensus. Additionally, adjusted gross margin of 65.3% came in above the 65% the Street was looking for.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) reported better-than-expected results in its fiscal fourth-quarter 2022 release after the closing bell Thursday. Record revenue of $1.343 billion, up 68% year over year, outpaced expectations of $1.32 billion while adjusted per-share earnings of $0.50, beat the $0.48-per-share consensus. Additionally, adjusted gross margin of 65.3% came in above the 65% the Street was looking for.
I think the fact that so few companies have a PEG of 1 or lower show that PEG is a valued metric. If' a company's PEG gets near 1 it's bought up, the price rises and so does the PEG.
I also think that might be showing a PEG of 1 is probably too low as a benchmark.
Reports out there that the convoy outside of Kyiv has stalled out in part because of cheap tires, possibly from China, blowing out.
I don’t know about that. FB has had that ratio for a bit and it’s only dropped more. It might be basing though finally in that 190-210 area I’ve mentioned. But we’ll see if it holds.
Looking at AMZN.
Went on that great run after the covid dip, rising from $1800ish up to $3300 ish in July of 2020.
Since then they have been trading in a range of $2800ish up to $3800. Currently sits just below $3000.
But since July of 2020, the P/E has gone from 120x to 52x(using Etrades PE chart instead of the more commonly used PE which is currently 64x) Stock price down about 10% since those early July highs, while the P/E has more then cut in half.
In 2019 the stock price was also trading in a range around $1800, and the P/E was pretty steady at around 80x. Prior to 2019the P/E was in the 100's.
EPS in 2016 was $4.9. 2017 was $6.5. 2018 was $20. In 2019 it was $23. In 2020 it was $42. In 2021 it $60 per share.
EPS growth rate 16-17 was 30%. 17-18 was 200%, 18-19 was 15%, 19-20 80%, 20-21 42%.
Here's the rub, projected 2022 eps is currently $48. At least that's what etrade is projecting. So EPS decline into next year, before jumping again in 2023.
Went on that great run after the covid dip, rising from $1800ish up to $3300 ish in July of 2020.
Since then they have been trading in a range of $2800ish up to $3800. Currently sits just below $3000.
But since July of 2020, the P/E has gone from 120x to 52x(using Etrades PE chart instead of the more commonly used PE which is currently 64x) Stock price down about 10% since those early July highs, while the P/E has more then cut in half.
In 2019 the stock price was also trading in a range around $1800, and the P/E was pretty steady at around 80x. Prior to 2019the P/E was in the 100's.
EPS in 2016 was $4.9. 2017 was $6.5. 2018 was $20. In 2019 it was $23. In 2020 it was $42. In 2021 it $60 per share.
EPS growth rate 16-17 was 30%. 17-18 was 200%, 18-19 was 15%, 19-20 80%, 20-21 42%.
Here's the rub, projected 2022 eps is currently $48. At least that's what etrade is projecting. So EPS decline into next year, before jumping again in 2023.
But people have not wanted to want to invest in FB for reasons other than their money making abilities.
The more recent dip is due to the money that they plan to invest in the metaverse which is not expected to return profits for years. Which will likely cut into the company's overall earnings growth rate.
That would mean we are in a shooting war with Russia - and then China (they became new partners just before Olympics).
Plus the Addams Family in DC has wrecked military (not an accident) and wouldn't mind a loss (yes I mean that).
As far as nuke plant - I'm not ruling out Ukraine pulling a stunt to get help
Yeah, definitely too low, but closer to 1 the better. Morningstar seems to use 1.5 in their FMV calculations.
Given what we are seeing I'm not the least bit concerned about a conventional war with Russia, and I doubt China would come to Russia's defense in Ukraine.
To me the concern about getting involved in Ukraine is all about Putin's willingness to use the nukes.
Was googling around and found this from December.
www.cnbc.com
Aside from the Ukraine-Russia forecasting, what's interesting is that while the US will increase oil production in 2022, it will still be below 2019 levels.
U.S. oil production set to increase further in 2022, energy expert Dan Yergin says
U.S. oil production is back and set to increase in 2022 after more than a year of OPEC and its allies "running the show," said oil expert Daniel Yergin.
Aside from the Ukraine-Russia forecasting, what's interesting is that while the US will increase oil production in 2022, it will still be below 2019 levels.
Shale and NG has suppressed the demand for oil. This overall trend will continue, which means, oil stocks are a short term play.Was googling around and found this.
U.S. oil production set to increase further in 2022, energy expert Dan Yergin says
U.S. oil production is back and set to increase in 2022 after more than a year of OPEC and its allies "running the show," said oil expert Daniel Yergin.
Aside from the Ukraine-Russia forecasting, what's interesting is that while the US will increase oil production in 2022, it will still be below 2019 levels.
I have a strong feeling if we don't do anything, down the road we will be asking ourselves WHY didn't we. This is very similar to how WW2 started.
From what I have heard, the last 2 days, it seems like gyna, is having problems throwing their full support behind Adolf the 2nd. i am not convinced gyna, would get involved.
Sure it’s going to effect growth rate. They gave guidance of 3-11% on the top line and they’ve been punished for that. Went from a multiple in the low 20s to the low teens. That’s my point regardless of whatever ratio you want to use whether it’s PE or PEG or whatever no matter how cheap it gets, it can still get cheaper when sentiment is bad. Mind you I do feel like sentiment is in the process of bottoming for some names but doesn’t mean a bounce back is on the horizon. Things can just linger for awhile and like I’ve said I think things are in a trading range.
Longer term I think FB is over done but who knows when that turn will come. These metrics are something to look at but can’t assume people are buying by the boat load no mater how cheap things look on any metric especially when the cost of how much the market is willing to pay for growth is under transition.
IF FB’s Reelz can make a dent in TikTok the stock will skyrocket…then add on the metaverse down the road…the groundwork is there just need Zuck & Co. to execute.
Any commodities specialists here? I hold a "nice" position in GSG. Commodities prices have taken off of late with inflation and geopolitical influence. Any thoughts on commodities outlook for '22?
Could be a good set-up today for an afternoon rally. Does this latest nuclear news mean that it can’t get much worse short of pushing the red button? If so, could be near a bottom unless the Russian and Ukraine economies bring down the global economy, which I don’t think is likely.
Economy still looks strong. Good job #'s without wage inflation. Yes please! :)
www.cnbc.com
February jobs rose a surprisingly strong 678,000, unemployment edged lower while wages were flat
Nonfarm payrolls for the month grew by 678,000 and the unemployment rate was 3.8%, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Added some UL again Think there's some support in this 44-45 area. Willing to add more if it goes lower. Russian exposure plus lawsuit in Israel may be giving it some issues.
Yeah that payroll number looked great but the hourly wage is disappointing. So inflation has much more of an impactEconomy still looks strong. Good job #'s without wage inflation. Yes please! :)
February jobs rose a surprisingly strong 678,000, unemployment edged lower while wages were flat
Nonfarm payrolls for the month grew by 678,000 and the unemployment rate was 3.8%, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Looking to jump into SOXL soon. Perhaps later today if it hits the target level.
I bought more SOFI for DCA purposes. Financials are so beaten up across the board I’m wading into JPM and GS. I have to believe in 6+ months Big Banks will be much higher.
Not saying it will happen but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a 2 handle on GS.
52 week low is a little below where it is now but it's in the vicinity but you know 52 week lows can beget more 52 week lows so I don't look at that exclusively other than to say well this stock has come down a bit is it something worth looking at?
Forward PE is 8 and in the financial sector I don't think high single digit PEs are all that unusual. Dividend is solid but with rates going up in the future wonder if the premium over the fed funds rate might change. Kind of makes me wonder if the utilities and staples (staples have been showing some weakness as of late) will rerate at least a little bit.
Is there a thread OT on macro and microeconomic discussion? Want to dig in more on the broader economic effect of sanctions on the global economy and commodity market but don't want to clog up this thread which is more securities trading.
Haven't had meaningful international exposure in a very long time. And no plans to start now!
I have to believe that at some point money moves out of int’l and starts flowing into US stocks or perhaps emerging markets. But EU/Asia no thanks.
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