OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[rutgersguy1]

By the time the other "competitors" catch-up, the EV pie will be 5x bigger. TSLA's lead is growing, not shrinking. Have you checked on F lately? Complete disaster of a company right now.

Well the streaming pie was suppose to be bigger too with cord cutting and the like but sooner or later the competitors catch up and a saturation point is reached. Transition to EV from combustion similar to transition from linear cable to streaming. Like I said I can't put a time table on it but from a 10000 foot level that's how I see it playing out. For now TSLA is fine but eventually I see competitors catching up and saturation point being reached...when the hell that happens who knows.

I just mentioned above IMO NFLX even if not the top dog in streaming, I still expect them to be at least in top 3 and a player in the future. TSLA could be the same, it's just they may not get the valuation premium they enjoy now but when that happens I don't know. Fly in the ointment of that view IMO is what I also mentioned above, is the battery technology useful beyond just cars?

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Well the streaming pie was suppose to be bigger too with cord cutting and the like but sooner or later the competitors catch up and a saturation point is reached. Transition to EV from combustion similar to transition from linear cable to streaming. Like I said I can't put a time table on it but from a 10000 foot level that's how I see it playing out. For now TSLA is fine but eventually I see competitors catching up and saturation point being reached...when the hell that happens who knows.

I just mentioned above IMO NFLX even if not the top dog in streaming, I still expect them to be at least in top 3 and a player in the future. TSLA could be the same, it's just they may not get the valuation premium they enjoy now but when that happens I don't know. Fly in the ointment of that view IMO is what I also mentioned above, is the battery technology useful beyond just cars?

I can see why people would take what he says with a grain of salt, but Elon said he expects the Optimus Robot to eventually be worth more to Tesla than their cars. Add in solar and whatever they come up with next and I’d say there’s a good chance the become more than a car company.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I can see why people would take what he says with a grain of salt, but Elon said he expects the Optimus Robot to eventually be worth more to Tesla than their cars. Add in solar and whatever they come up with next and I’d say there’s a good chance the become more than a car company.

That’s the question…can it be another Amazon?

 

[T2Kplus20]

From Elon. Go TSLA Go!

Despite this slowdown, Musk said, “It seems likely that we’ll be able to produce one and a half million cars this year.” He cautioned that customers ordering now are facing a long waitlist, and some of their orders won’t arrive until next year.

 

[jtung230]

From Elon. Go TSLA Go!

Despite this slowdown, Musk said, “It seems likely that we’ll be able to produce one and a half million cars this year.” He cautioned that customers ordering now are facing a long waitlist, and some of their orders won’t arrive until next year.

Wow, that’s close to not hitting their 50% YOY growth rate. Didn’t think that was going to be an issue until they hit 2mm. I think Tesla is a great car company. But the stock is valued like Amazon.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Wow, that’s close to not hitting their 50% YOY growth rate. Didn’t think that was going to be an issue until they hit 2mm. I think Tesla is a great car company. But the stock is valued like Amazon.

Amazing forecast! The gap between TSLA and the "competition" just keeps getting wider. Will TSLA be the first $5T company? I think it is down to them or NVDA.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

For those suggesting Tesla has competition, where exactly is that competition coming from?

 

[rurahrah000]

If only I played in options lol but alas it’s not for me. Congrats and more importantly thanks for specifics and giving the potential trade in “real time”

It would be nice if more folks would post their trades in real time. Too many on this forum claim to have the perfect timing.

Subs declined, but EPS was still the 2nd best qt, in the companies history, and a significant beat over expectations.

Current p/e of 20x, so no longer a premium multiple.

Though I agree, need to see a plan.

Little wary of similar pull fwd leading to declining growth in pinterest.

That maybe true but remember the investors of this stock were investing for growth not for value. It will take some time to wash out the growth investors and replace them with value investors. Having said that, I am not sure how many value investors will jump in anytime soon.

 

[rurahrah000]

Amazing forecast! The gap between TSLA and the "competition" just keeps getting wider. Will TSLA be the first $5T company? I think it is down to them or NVDA.

I don’t know about $5T company anytime soon, but TSLA is the unquestionable leader in the EV market and by a mile. Comparisons to Netflix are flawed because streaming services need to constantly generate new content to remain on top. This allows another streaming company to have a much easier time to come in and compete. TSLA dominates other EV makers because of superior technology. NFLX cannot dominate the competition just by having a better software system. A better comparison would be AMZN. AMZN continues to dominate the competition not just because of its price, but also because of the service it provides. We get 3-4 packages from AMZN every day and I can’t remember the last time I had the wrong thing delivered or felt like I got ripped of. TSLA is the AMZN of EV makers.

 

[jtung230]

Tesla with only a 5.5% growth from last quarter on automotive sales revenue.

 

[T2Kplus20]

It would be nice if more folks would post their trades in real time. Too many on this forum claim to have the perfect timing.

That maybe true but remember the investors of this stock were investing for growth not for value. It will take some time to wash out the growth investors and replace them with value investors. Having said that, I am not sure how many value investors will jump in anytime soon.

At least for me, hard to post trades when mostly I buy and don't sell! LOL. I did post pretty close to real-time my SOXL trade. My leveraged ETFs:

UPRO = CB around $52
TQQQ = CB around $42
UWM (R2K 2x) = got in around $42.5
USD (semi 2x) = started buying at $30'ish

Definitely holding and adding to UPRO and TQQQ long-term. Not entirely sure about the 2x ETFs. May trade when they get to new ATHs. We shall see.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I don’t know about $5T company anytime soon, but TSLA is the unquestionable leader in the EV market and by a mile. Comparisons to Netflix are flawed because streaming services need to constantly generate new content to remain on top. This allows another streaming company to have a much easier time to come in and compete. TSLA dominates other EV makers because of superior technology. NFLX cannot dominate the competition just by having a better software system. A better comparison would be AMZN. AMZN continues to dominate the competition not just because of its price, but also because of the service it provides. We get 3-4 packages from AMZN every day and I can’t remember the last time I had the wrong thing delivered or felt like I got ripped of. TSLA is the AMZN of EV makers.

Outstanding post. Hits the nail on the head. I bought TSLA in March 2021 (on the 5th, I think) at $570. Wish I bought more. Came close to adding at $700 a few months ago, but I literally was in a work meeting and missed my opportunity. Thankfully, I own a ton of TSLA via my funds and ETFs. I use Morningstar's Portfolio X-Ray tool, which gives a stock breakdown of accounts, to track holdings.

 

[Joey Bags]

Oracle announced they will no longer be requiring people to come in to offices. Plan is to offload office space including their NYC spot. Corporate real estate NOT the place to be right now (and maybe ever again).

 

[jtung230]

Oracle announced they will no longer be requiring people to come in to offices. Plan is to offload office space including their NYC spot. Corporate real estate NOT the place to be right now (and maybe ever again).

Good thing IBM just signed a 328k sf lease in NYC.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Good thing IBM just signed a 328k sf lease in NYC.

Just another reason why IBM is a value trap. Old culture and mindset.

 

[jtung230]

Just another reason why IBM is a value trap. Old culture and mindset.

Oh yeah, they should’ve bought NYC office like Google and Amazon instead. LOL

 

[T2Kplus20]

TSLA sh!tting on traditional auto companies. LOL. Great stuff:

 

[ashokan]

NFLX down almost 20%…it was only a matter of time that competition started to impact the numbers. Plus, other than Squid Games I can’t recall many hits.

They had the lolita show scandal and something about a pregnant man. Many people have had their fill of that stuff

However I also think people have been coping with inflation by using credit cards for awhile. Now they are dumping the auto debits

"A couple dollars more a month normally isn’t enough to move the needle, but when Americans are facing the fastest inflation in 40 years, something has got to give. And for 600,000 people in the U.S. and Canada, that something was their subscription to Netflix Inc.

Consumer spending is by far the biggest contributor to the U.S. economy, and economists are keenly looking for any signs that higher prices are starting to chip away at demand. The latest quarterly results from Netflix, which counts TV shows like “Love Is Blind” and “Bridgerton” among its biggest hits, may provide some evidence that it’s already in motion.

“It’s a very early signal,” said Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData. “One of the things people will most certainly look to cut as inflation bites are those recurring payments month in and month out, and that obviously includes streaming.”

Netflix Subscriber Woes Hint at U.S. Consumer Pushback on Prices - Bloomberg​

 

[RUBlackout]

They had the lolita show scandal and something about a pregnant man. Many people have had their fill of that stuff

However I also think people have been coping with inflation by using credit cards for awhile. Now they are dumping the auto debits

"A couple dollars more a month normally isn’t enough to move the needle, but when Americans are facing the fastest inflation in 40 years, something has got to give. And for 600,000 people in the U.S. and Canada, that something was their subscription to Netflix Inc.

Consumer spending is by far the biggest contributor to the U.S. economy, and economists are keenly looking for any signs that higher prices are starting to chip away at demand. The latest quarterly results from Netflix, which counts TV shows like “Love Is Blind” and “Bridgerton” among its biggest hits, may provide some evidence that it’s already in motion.

“It’s a very early signal,” said Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData. “One of the things people will most certainly look to cut as inflation bites are those recurring payments month in and month out, and that obviously includes streaming.”

Netflix Subscriber Woes Hint at U.S. Consumer Pushback on Prices - Bloomberg​

Well considering EVERYTHING has gone up in price recently due to inflation, you start to reconsider your spending and first things to go are discretionary non essentials

 

[RUAldo]

Oh yeah, they should’ve bought NYC office like Google and Amazon instead. LOL

Google seems to be one of the more vocal tech giants that is not enamored with WFH. Between kids growing up staring at their phones and no in-person collaboration at work we will have a future world of socially inept morons.

 

[jtung230]

For those suggesting Tesla has competition, where exactly is that competition coming from?

Tesla had 80% of EV sales in 2020. What was it in 2021?

 

[RU-05]

Speaking of TSLA

Tesla reports $18.76 billion in revenue and record margins in Q1

Revenue growth was driven in part by an increase in the number of cars Tesla delivered, and an increase in average sales prices

www.cnbc.com

P/E of 120x. Growth rate at 80%. PEG of 1.5.

Fairly cheap.

 

[RU-05]

They had the lolita show scandal and something about a pregnant man. Many people have had their fill of that stuff

However I also think people have been coping with inflation by using credit cards for awhile. Now they are dumping the auto debits

"A couple dollars more a month normally isn’t enough to move the needle, but when Americans are facing the fastest inflation in 40 years, something has got to give. And for 600,000 people in the U.S. and Canada, that something was their subscription to Netflix Inc.

Consumer spending is by far the biggest contributor to the U.S. economy, and economists are keenly looking for any signs that higher prices are starting to chip away at demand. The latest quarterly results from Netflix, which counts TV shows like “Love Is Blind” and “Bridgerton” among its biggest hits, may provide some evidence that it’s already in motion.

“It’s a very early signal,” said Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData. “One of the things people will most certainly look to cut as inflation bites are those recurring payments month in and month out, and that obviously includes streaming.”

Netflix Subscriber Woes Hint at U.S. Consumer Pushback on Prices - Bloomberg​

Well considering EVERYTHING has gone up in price recently due to inflation, you start to reconsider your spending and first things to go are discretionary non essentials

I just wonder if the $15 a month bill is the reason people are really cutting NFLX. Yes people are trimming where they can, but if NFLX was pumping out quality content that $15 would prob seem worth it.

I think it is more that people were stuck at home, so a ton of people signed up, watched everything NFLX had, and the new content has not kept pace, so people are moving on. Plenty of streaming options out there.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

Tesla had 80% of EV sales in 2020. What was it in 2021?

You and I both agreed there is no such thing as an "EV market". There's only a vehicle market. Now you want to use a metric you agreed was nonsense.

You keep beating the drum that the competition is coming. Where is it coming from? What auto maker(s) are positioned to retard Tesla's growth?

 

[RU-05]

I don’t know about $5T company anytime soon, but TSLA is the unquestionable leader in the EV market and by a mile. Comparisons to Netflix are flawed because streaming services need to constantly generate new content to remain on top. This allows another streaming company to have a much easier time to come in and compete. TSLA dominates other EV makers because of superior technology. NFLX cannot dominate the competition just by having a better software system. A better comparison would be AMZN. AMZN continues to dominate the competition not just because of its price, but also because of the service it provides. We get 3-4 packages from AMZN every day and I can’t remember the last time I had the wrong thing delivered or felt like I got ripped of. TSLA is the AMZN of EV makers.

And like AMZN, which then introduced AWS, ie a completely seperate high margin business to compliment the core business, TSLA has the potential for robotaxis, and all the other ancillary possibilities still out there.

A guy was on earlier and said the robotaxi's could generate $250K in earnings per vehicle, as opposed to $10ishK per vehice.

They still need to get it figured out, it's been a carrot that's been dangling out there for awhile, but if they can, that is a 25x increase in per car earnings.

 

[T2Kplus20]

P/E of 120x. Growth rate at 80%. PEG of 1.5.

Fairly cheap.

#truth
Amazing quarter. Buy on any weakness.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I just wonder if the $15 a month bill is the reason people are really cutting NFLX. Yes people are trimming where they can, but if NFLX was pumping out quality content that $15 would prob seem worth it.

I think it is more that people were stuck at home, so a ton of people signed up, watched everything NFLX had, and the new content has not kept pace, so people are moving on. Plenty of streaming options out there.

We have Netflix, Disney+, HBO Max, Prime, and Peacock (free as Comcast customers). Of the 5 services, I definitely use Netflix the least.

 

[patk89]

Oracle announced they will no longer be requiring people to come in to offices. Plan is to offload office space including their NYC spot. Corporate real estate NOT the place to be right now (and maybe ever again).

They just hired my college grad niece and are moving her from NJ to Austin.

 

[RU-05]

You and I both agreed there is no such thing as an "EV market". There's only a vehicle market. Now you want to use a metric you agreed was nonsense.

You keep beating the drum that the competition is coming. Where is it coming from? What auto maker(s) are positioned to retard Tesla's growth?

I'll throw my hat in here and disagree. I think TSLA's being EV is a huge reason people buy the car. The fact that no other company currently makes comparable level EV's is the reason no other car company to this point has been able to gain traction.

It might not be the only reason, but I'd say it's clearly the biggest reason.

 

[T2Kplus20]

They just hired my college grad niece and are moving her from NJ to Austin.

Lots of companies moving to TX.

 

[RU-05]

#truth
Amazing quarter. Buy on any weakness.

At this point I think it's super clear the bears were wrong.

It also makes me think back to early on in the post covid market run, where we had debates as to whether the market was too expensive. Many of the multiples were sky high, but the argument from the bulls, was these companies would grow into those multiples, and examples such as AMZN would be given of companies which in the past grew into extremely high multiples.

Well while the likes of ZM and DOCU and SHOP, fell way off proving those multiples were too high, TSLA is THE company which proved that it would grow into that multiple.

Pretty remarkable to see that growth while every other car manufacturer is treading water trying to navigate supply chain issues.

 

[T2Kplus20]

At this point I think it's super clear the bears were wrong.

It also makes me think back to early on in the post covid market run, where we had debates as to whether the market was too expensive. Many of the multiples were sky high, but the argument from the bulls, was these companies would grow into those multiples, and examples such as AMZN would be given of companies which in the past grew into extremely high multiples.

Well while the likes of ZM and DOCU and SHOP, fell way off proving those multiples were too high, TSLA is THE company which proved that it would grow into that multiple.

Pretty remarkable to see that growth while every other car manufacturer is treading water trying to navigate supply chain issues.

Some companies deserve such high multiples. Same story with NVDA.

 

[RU-05]

It would be nice if more folks would post their trades in real time. Too many on this forum claim to have the perfect timing.

Looking at a bunch of stuff, Zillow being one, but haven't bought anything.

Still just rolling calls, MARA's been great. Just got another 2.5% on the weekly roll up.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

At this point I think it's super clear the bears were wrong.

It also makes me think back to early on in the post covid market run, where we had debates as to whether the market was too expensive. Many of the multiples were sky high, but the argument from the bulls, was these companies would grow into those multiples, and examples such as AMZN would be given of companies which in the past grew into extremely high multiples.

Well while the likes of ZM and DOCU and SHOP, fell way off proving those multiples were too high, TSLA is THE company which proved that it would grow into that multiple.

Pretty remarkable to see that growth while every other car manufacturer is treading water trying to navigate supply chain issues.

An illustration for your post…

 

[RU-05]

SNOW at $184, a level it has bounced off of a couple times.

Price to Rev's at 50x, so still super expensive but fwd look multiple of 25ishx this upcoming year. ie, near doubling it's rev's expected.

 

[ashokan]

I just wonder if the $15 a month bill is the reason people are really cutting NFLX. Yes people are trimming where they can, but if NFLX was pumping out quality content that $15 would prob seem worth it.

I think it is more that people were stuck at home, so a ton of people signed up, watched everything NFLX had, and the new content has not kept pace, so people are moving on. Plenty of streaming options out there.

CC finance charges are extortionate.
64% of Americans were paycheck to paycheck before inflation
I think many people probably sat down one day and went through all their auto debit items
Its easy to forget all the things listed and easy to start dumping
I probably have 2 dozen subscriptions on Amazon alone and cant recall most of them
I had Netflix for three months a couple years ago and then dropped it
After a few good documentaries there was nothing worth watching
It seemed like mostly crime stuff - serial killers, scammers etc
I haven't even ever used my Amazon Prime video library
Entertainment media just cant make stuff anymore
They've been running on formulas for awhile, and now they are using bizarre formulas so another step down.
I saw Bill Ackman put in over a billion just a few months ago and now dropped it at 40% loss.
No confidence in the future of Netflix

'In January, Mr. Ackman said that he was “delighted that the market has presented us with this opportunity.” He said that it sported an “attractive valuation” after the tumble in its shares...Netflix had said in January that it expected to add a much smaller number of subscribers this quarter than it did a year ago, because of growing competition and disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic. Despite the dour outlook back then, the latest financial results were still surprising to investors."

William Ackman’s Hedge Fund Sheds Stake in Netflix

The billionaire investor said Pershing Square sold its stake in the streaming service Wednesday, implying a loss of about $400 million.

www.wsj.com

I think consumers have also made realizations the last few months. Inflation isn't temporary and there are no looming solutions from the DC gang

 

[RU-05]

CC finance charges are extortionate.
64% of Americans were paycheck to paycheck before inflation
I think many people probably sat down one day and went through all their auto debt items
Its easy to forget all the things listed and easy to start dumping
I probably have 2 dozen subscriptions on Amazon alone and cant recall most of them
I had Netflix for three months a couple years ago and then dropped it
After a few good documentaries there was nothing worth watching
It seemed like mostly crime stuff - serial killers, scammers etc
I haven't even ever used my Amazon Prime video library
Entertainment media just cant make stuff anymore
They've been running on formulas for awhile, and now they are using bizarre formulas so another step down.
I saw Bill Ackman put in over a billion just a few months ago and now dropped it at 40% loss.
No confidence in the future of Netflix

'In January, Mr. Ackman said that he was “delighted that the market has presented us with this opportunity.” He said that it sported an “attractive valuation” after the tumble in its shares...Netflix had said in January that it expected to add a much smaller number of subscribers this quarter than it did a year ago, because of growing competition and disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic. Despite the dour outlook back then, the latest financial results were still surprising to investors."

William Ackman’s Hedge Fund Sheds Stake in Netflix

The billionaire investor said Pershing Square sold its stake in the streaming service Wednesday, implying a loss of about $400 million.

www.wsj.com

I think consumers have also made realizations the last few months. Inflation isn't temporary and there are no looming solutions from the DC gang

Ya, I never use my Amazon for streaming, maybe I just haven't put in the time to figure it out, but it seems most of the stuff I want to watch is stuff I have to pay for, so I don't.

 

[rutgersguy1]

For those suggesting Tesla has competition, where exactly is that competition coming from?

Are the other manufacturers (Americans, Germans, Japanese, Koreans) going to be so far behind Tesla in perpetuity. Like I said I don't put a time table on it (whether it's 5, 10, 15, 20 year who the hell knows) but from a 10000 foot level yes the others will eventually be competitive. At one time the Japanese manufactures weren't great and the Koreans after them but eventually they all came around and are now legitimate options for consumers.

 

[T2Kplus20]

CC finance charges are extortionate.
64% of Americans were paycheck to paycheck before inflation
I think many people probably sat down one day and went through all their auto debt items
Its easy to forget all the things listed and easy to start dumping
I probably have 2 dozen subscriptions on Amazon alone and cant recall most of them
I had Netflix for three months a couple years ago and then dropped it
After a few good documentaries there was nothing worth watching
It seemed like mostly crime stuff - serial killers, scammers etc
I haven't even ever used my Amazon Prime video library
Entertainment media just cant make stuff anymore
They've been running on formulas for awhile, and now they are using bizarre formulas so another step down.
I saw Bill Ackman put in over a billion just a few months ago and now dropped it at 40% loss.
No confidence in the future of Netflix

'In January, Mr. Ackman said that he was “delighted that the market has presented us with this opportunity.” He said that it sported an “attractive valuation” after the tumble in its shares...Netflix had said in January that it expected to add a much smaller number of subscribers this quarter than it did a year ago, because of growing competition and disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic. Despite the dour outlook back then, the latest financial results were still surprising to investors."

William Ackman’s Hedge Fund Sheds Stake in Netflix

The billionaire investor said Pershing Square sold its stake in the streaming service Wednesday, implying a loss of about $400 million.

www.wsj.com

I think consumers have also made realizations the last few months. Inflation isn't temporary and there are no looming solutions from the DC gang

LOL! Ackman is a royal douche.

 

[ashokan]

LOL! Ackman is a royal douche.

Well if he wasn't before he is now
Maybe same for Netflix admins
They want to scramble and crack down on passwords to maintain profits but they cut 700k Russian subscribers to punish Putin.