OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

We had back to back 30% gains in the S&P. Inflation at 40 year highs, with significant fed tightening coming. I think this pullback is pretty rational.

Now this probably is providing us a good buying opportunity, especially as we look a few years out, but this current downward trend does make sense.

S&P was only up 18.4% in 2020. :)

The inflation fear is silly from a Fed and market POV. It's all due to non-monetary policy reasons. Raising rates will do nothing to help the situation. Just need to be patient as it starts to resolve (which will happen within a month or two). Russia is Russia, nothing the Fed can do about that. However, fun fact. There is more oil on the market today that before the conflict started. So much for that fear!

The Fed raising rates is practically irrelevant anyway since the market did the heavy lifting. The Fed raising rates at the next few meetings will have zero direct economic impact. Just scared people being scared.

 

[RUAldo]

S&P was only up 18.4% in 2020. :)

The inflation fear is silly from a Fed and market POV. It's all due to non-monetary policy reasons. Raising rates will do nothing to help the situation. Just need to be patient as it starts to resolve (which will happen within a month or two). Russia is Russia, nothing the Fed can do about that. However, fun fact. There is more oil on the market today that before the conflict started. So much for that fear!

The Fed raising rates is practically irrelevant anyway since the market did the heavy lifting. The Fed raising rates at the next few meetings will have zero direct economic impact. Just scared people being scared.

I don’t think inflation fear is silly = it’s real and will be very difficult to tame without tanking the market as we already experienced. But, the Fed knows that tanking the market is probably the only way to really slow things down since one of the main reasons everything from cars to houses skyrocketed is because people were looking at their retirement and investment accounts after the big run-ups and suddenly felt rich.

 

[T2Kplus20]

To summarize yesterday's great start to the big 3 days of earnings (from Cramer and Team):

• Visa (V) posts extraordinary numbers, especially compared to three years ago. The credit-card company crushed sales and earnings estimates. And this is despite CEO Alfred Kelly suspending operations in Russia, which was its second-largest market for Visa Direct, its real-time payments network. I can’t believe the strength across the whole world. Payment volume was up 135% versus three yeas ago. Cross-border volumes, excluding intra-Europe, gained 112%. United States, get this: Up 144% compared to 2019. This is, in part, the move away from cash. In 2019, cash was 59% of total payments; this quarter it was 46%. Domestic spend is incredibly strong. Pent-up travel demand is very high.
• Microsoft (MSFT) earnings report: hardly any flaws. You have Azure just crushing it. Windows cycle, LinkedIn doing amazing. Gaming is the only weakness—mid-to-high single-digit decline. That’s due to lower engagement hours, but still higher than pre-pandemic. Software maker is best in show. Shares fell initially because people didn’t wait to hear amazing CFO Amy Hood on the call with investors. There was not a line that was weak. We own it and have a great memo on this one. Guidance very strong. Took out $110 million from war in Ukraine and said lockdowns in China is reflected in guidance.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) — are you kidding me? Small amount of advertising from Eastern Europe is the only miss. I am astonished at how well search is doing in advertising. There is an amazing amount of demand in YouTube and it is just plain dumb to say it is weakening. Cash continues to build and is spent on company. We have a great memo on Alphabet. $70 billion in buybacks, about 5% of market cap.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I don’t think inflation fear is silly = it’s real and will be very difficult to tame without tanking the market as we already experienced. But, the Fed knows that tanking the market is probably the only way to really slow things down since one of the main reasons everything from cars to houses skyrocketed is because people were looking at their retirement and investment accounts after the big run-ups and suddenly felt rich.

Cars are up due to supply chain issues, nothing else. Similar thing for housing, just supply and demand.

 

[RU-05]

I see DHI with another strong beat yesterday. The chart showing it has levelled out after a 35ish% drop.

Interest rates rising, and commodity prices continue to be high so there are headwinds, but the overall housing shortage looks like a long term tailwind.

Current P/E of 5x lower then it was at the depths of the covid dip. Typically trades in the 8x-12x range. As of now EPS expected to continue to grow through 2023, and it has beat every qtr over the last 3 years.

 

[RUAldo]

This can’t be a good sign of things to come:

Adjustable-rate mortgage demand doubles as interest rates hit the highest since 2009

Sharply rising mortgage rates caused mortgage demand to plunge and pushed more borrowers to riskier, adjustable-rate loans.

www.cnbc.com

 

[rutgersdave]

Here we go again!

 

[RUAldo]

Cars are up due to supply chain issues, nothing else. Similar thing for housing, just supply and demand.

Cars may have supply chain issues, but inventory levels post-COVID plummeted in large part because demand skyrocketed since so many people were moving out of cities plus WFH meaning they could no longer rely on public transportation or wanted to avoid it so they didn’t have to be around sick people. And I don’t think you can separate supply/demand from inflation = it’s all directly correlated.

 

[T2Kplus20]

This can’t be a good sign of things to come:

Adjustable-rate mortgage demand doubles as interest rates hit the highest since 2009

Sharply rising mortgage rates caused mortgage demand to plunge and pushed more borrowers to riskier, adjustable-rate loans.

www.cnbc.com

Adjustable rate mortgages can be a good play for reasonable customers that expect refinancing down the road at lower rates.

Or, it can be a sign of dumb people doing dumb things again!

You can decide which one it is. 😁

 

[RU-05]

BA down another 12%.

When, if ever, does this become a buy?

 

[RU-05]

Cars may have supply chain issues, but inventory levels post-COVID plummeted in large part because demand skyrocketed since so many people were moving out of cities plus WFH meaning they could no longer rely on public transportation or wanted to avoid it so they didn’t have to be around sick people. And I don’t think you can separate supply/demand from inflation = it’s all directly correlated.

New car sales in 2019 were over 17 million units. In 2020 and 2021 they were under 15 million.

People had money and wanted cars, but new car supply was the "large part" imo.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

Given what you have made on this stock, you should be diversifying away from it. Definitely not buying more. But time will tell. I wish that I had loaded up on it several years ago.

I believe it was Warren Buffett who said, "Diversification is for idiots who don't know what they're doing". This is not meant to be insulting to you, and I do appreciate the advice, but I don't have the interest or patience to research dozens/hundreds of other investments. I've found my unicorn stock and shoved all in (almost).

Tsla itself is a diversified investment. Autos, software, insurance, energy generation, energy storage, artificial intelligence, robotics, robotaxi + future projects. All areas are ripe for disruption and huge growth in the future.

If I was actively trading in and out of tsla, I'd be in a mental institution by now. I would encourage anyone with a long term investment horizon to ignore the short term noise, FUD, and clickbait, and do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company and their rate of growth. You're far from "missing the boat" IMO.

 

[RUAldo]

BA down another 12%.

When, if ever, does this become a buy?

BA is a mess - reputation is everything in the airline industry and Boeing is lucky that they are in a duopoly because if there was more competition they would be F’d.

 

[patk89]

I believe it was Warren Buffett who said, "Diversification is for idiots who don't know what they're doing". This is not meant to be insulting to you, and I do appreciate the advice, but I don't have the interest or patience to research dozens/hundreds of other investments. I've found my unicorn stock and shoved all in (almost).

Tsla itself is a diversified investment. Autos, software, insurance, energy generation, energy storage, artificial intelligence, robotics, robotaxi + future projects. All areas are ripe for disruption and huge growth in the future.

If I was actively trading in and out of tsla, I'd be in a mental institution by now. I would encourage anyone with a long term investment horizon to ignore the short term noise, FUD, and clickbait, and do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company and their rate of growth. You're far from "missing the boat" IMO.

Hire an investment advisor. Please. You may end up being right but you are drinking the Koolaid at this point. You won. Why risk becoming a loser? Keep an outsized percentage of your net worth in Tesla but for God's sake do not buy more at these levels. Many have done what you have done and regretted it. Take a massive vacation. See the world. Buy something you never thought you could afford. Going from $5 million to $10 million might feel great, but why not enjoy life?

 

[rutgersdave]

BA down another 12%.

When, if ever, does this become a buy?

A couple of years ago it was a sure thing. It actually might be a good time to invest since it is a duopolies unless the Chinese catch up with making reliable planes..

 

[rutgersdave]

BA down another 12%.

When, if ever, does this become a buy?

Boeing lost $1.1B on Trump Air Force One deal so far, CEO bemoans contract
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/boe...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

 

[RUinPinehurst]

I believe it was Warren Buffett who said, "Diversification is for idiots who don't know what they're doing". This is not meant to be insulting to you, and I do appreciate the advice, but I don't have the interest or patience to research dozens/hundreds of other investments. I've found my unicorn stock and shoved all in (almost).

Tsla itself is a diversified investment. Autos, software, insurance, energy generation, energy storage, artificial intelligence, robotics, robotaxi + future projects. All areas are ripe for disruption and huge growth in the future.

If I was actively trading in and out of tsla, I'd be in a mental institution by now. I would encourage anyone with a long term investment horizon to ignore the short term noise, FUD, and clickbait, and do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company and their rate of growth. You're far from "missing the boat" IMO.

Sounds like Charlie. His "younger" counterpart has more tact. Charlie? He just speaks his mind, unfiltered.

 

[RUAldo]

When Weight Watchers is in the green while the rest of the market bleeds it’s time to be on high alert! What a shit-show lately!

 

[T2Kplus20]

FB goes KABOOM:

Facebook shares spike on better-than-expected quarterly earnings

Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results.

www.cnbc.com

Up 14%, getting back to $200'ish.

 

[T2Kplus20]

BIG BEAT for QCOM! Huge forecast and guidance as well. Big tech and semi's continue to crush it.

Qualcomm revenue pops 41% driven by Android phone chip sales

Qualcomm makes most of its money from selling processors and modems for smartphones and licensing technology for connecting to cellular networks.

www.cnbc.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

WOW! TDOC getting destroyed, truly awful results. Just more proof that earnings matter! TDOC down 34%. Ouch.

Speaking our earnings and big tech.........BIG BEAT for NOW.

Check out ServiceNow's stock price (NOW) in real time

Get ServiceNow Inc (NOW:NYSE) real-time stock quotes, news, price and financial information from CNBC.

www.cnbc.com

It is crystal clear which stocks are buy and which are avoid.

 

[RUBlackout]

Crazy news on TDOC. I just let Cathy Wood today talking to her at this SALT conference in the Bahamas….she is still completely bullish on everything of course.

this can’t be good news

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

I believe it was Warren Buffett who said, "Diversification is for idiots who don't know what they're doing". This is not meant to be insulting to you, and I do appreciate the advice, but I don't have the interest or patience to research dozens/hundreds of other investments. I've found my unicorn stock and shoved all in (almost).

Tsla itself is a diversified investment. Autos, software, insurance, energy generation, energy storage, artificial intelligence, robotics, robotaxi + future projects. All areas are ripe for disruption and huge growth in the future.

If I was actively trading in and out of tsla, I'd be in a mental institution by now. I would encourage anyone with a long term investment horizon to ignore the short term noise, FUD, and clickbait, and do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company and their rate of growth. You're far from "missing the boat" IMO.

No, that’s not what he said at all. See below:

Investment Diversification Gone Wrong

"Diversification is for idiots." -Mark Cuban.

www.linkedin.com

Warren Buffett's Investment Strategy

Here are the latest details on Warren Buffett’s investment strategy.

grow.acorns.com

 

[RUDead]

WOW! TDOC getting destroyed, truly awful results. Just more proof that earnings matter! TDOC down 34%. Ouch.

Speaking our earnings and big tech.........BIG BEAT for NOW.

Check out ServiceNow's stock price (NOW) in real time

Get ServiceNow Inc (NOW:NYSE) real-time stock quotes, news, price and financial information from CNBC.

www.cnbc.com

It is crystal clear which stocks are buy and which are avoid.

Wow.

These moves both up and down are huge. Crazy market.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

No, that’s not what he said at all. See below:

Investment Diversification Gone Wrong

"Diversification is for idiots." -Mark Cuban.

www.linkedin.com

Warren Buffett's Investment Strategy

Here are the latest details on Warren Buffett’s investment strategy.

grow.acorns.com

Cool. Puts me in the category of "skilled investor with maximum returns".
This one is good too:

Warren Buffett simplifies investing with a baseball analogy

The Oracle of Omaha compares his strategy to America's favorite pastime.

www.cnbc.com

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

Cool. Puts me in the category of "skilled investor with maximum returns".
This one is good too:

Warren Buffett simplifies investing with a baseball analogy

The Oracle of Omaha compares his strategy to America's favorite pastime.

www.cnbc.com

The context of his remarks (at least all those I have read or heard) is talking about himself and why he doesn’t need to diversify. And so he says those that are “home run” hitters or have exceptional expertise may be better off not diversifying. Speaking for me, although I have an MBA, have been on a couple Boards of Directors, and been involved in the investment company community for decade’s, I don’t consider myself in that category. I recognize and respect your strategy and wish the best for you. I just couldn’t do that myself.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Wow.

These moves both up and down are huge. Crazy market.

+1
Big tech is rocking earnings so far! AAPL and AMZN batting clean up tomorrow. :)

 

[RU-05]

WOW! TDOC getting destroyed, truly awful results. Just more proof that earnings matter! TDOC down 34%. Ouch.

Speaking our earnings and big tech.........BIG BEAT for NOW.

Check out ServiceNow's stock price (NOW) in real time

Get ServiceNow Inc (NOW:NYSE) real-time stock quotes, news, price and financial information from CNBC.

www.cnbc.com

It is crystal clear which stocks are buy and which are avoid.

Ya missed rev expectations, lowered guidance for the year and then throw this on top of it,

"For the first quarter, Teladoc generated a net loss of $6.67 billion, or $41.58 a share, whereas it recorded a loss of $200 million, or $1.31 a share, in the year-prior period. Teladoc's loss in the most recent quarter largely reflected a $6.6 billion impairment charge related to goodwill."

That's a heck of a trifecta.

Still doesn't make money but not expensive on price to Rev's. 4.58 x. Or price to book at .58x

 

[RU-05]

FB goes KABOOM:

Facebook shares spike on better-than-expected quarterly earnings

Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results.

www.cnbc.com

Up 14%, getting back to $200'ish.

BIG BEAT for QCOM! Huge forecast and guidance as well. Big tech and semi's continue to crush it.

Qualcomm revenue pops 41% driven by Android phone chip sales

Qualcomm makes most of its money from selling processors and modems for smartphones and licensing technology for connecting to cellular networks.

www.cnbc.com

I own them both so that's good. Hopefully this helps turn the market around.

 

[RUAldo]

Ya missed rev expectations, lowered guidance for the year and then throw this on top of it,

"For the first quarter, Teladoc generated a net loss of $6.67 billion, or $41.58 a share, whereas it recorded a loss of $200 million, or $1.31 a share, in the year-prior period. Teladoc's loss in the most recent quarter largely reflected a $6.6 billion impairment charge related to goodwill."

That's a heck of a trifecta.

Still doesn't make money but not expensive on price to Rev's. 4.58 x. Or price to book at .58x

It’s a one trick pony and always has been.

 

[RU-05]

It’s a one trick pony and always has been.

Who cares how many tricks the pony knows? The problem with this pony is it does not make money.

 

[jtung230]

I believe it was Warren Buffett who said, "Diversification is for idiots who don't know what they're doing". This is not meant to be insulting to you, and I do appreciate the advice, but I don't have the interest or patience to research dozens/hundreds of other investments. I've found my unicorn stock and shoved all in (almost).

Tsla itself is a diversified investment. Autos, software, insurance, energy generation, energy storage, artificial intelligence, robotics, robotaxi + future projects. All areas are ripe for disruption and huge growth in the future.

If I was actively trading in and out of tsla, I'd be in a mental institution by now. I would encourage anyone with a long term investment horizon to ignore the short term noise, FUD, and clickbait, and do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company and their rate of growth. You're far from "missing the boat" IMO.

Love the conviction. But if Musk is diversifying, maybe you should follow.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Ya missed rev expectations, lowered guidance for the year and then throw this on top of it,

"For the first quarter, Teladoc generated a net loss of $6.67 billion, or $41.58 a share, whereas it recorded a loss of $200 million, or $1.31 a share, in the year-prior period. Teladoc's loss in the most recent quarter largely reflected a $6.6 billion impairment charge related to goodwill."

That's a heck of a trifecta.

Still doesn't make money but not expensive on price to Rev's. 4.58 x. Or price to book at .58x

I think TDOC wrote off that awful acquisition of one of its competitors. Forgot the name of the company. Ouch! Gotta start making money.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I own them both so that's good. Hopefully this helps turn the market around.

It shows that the current dip for quality companies like this is BS. These are the stocks that will bounce the quickest and best once the FUD subsides. Steady on! :)

 

[RUAldo]

I think TDOC wrote off that awful acquisition of one of its competitors. Forgot the name of the company. Ouch! Gotta start making money.

LIVONGO! Terrible acquisition. The TDOC management team would give AT&T’s a run for their money.

 

[RU-05]

TDOC legged down another 10% into premarket morning training.

I kind of want to buy it.

 

[RUAldo]

IMO, it only becomes interesting at these levels if it’s a potential acquisition target. In terms of the core business, last time I looked into the company I started with a simple Google search of telemedicine providers = TDOC came up around fifth in the search results. Shortly thereafter, my doctor scheduled a tele-health appointment with me via FaceTime. That was enough to take TDOC off my potential investment list. But, I don’t want to talk you out of it by any means if you think it’s at an attractive level.

 

[RU-05]

IMO, it only becomes interesting at these levels if it’s a potential acquisition target. In terms of the core business, last time I looked into the company I started with a simple Google search of telemedicine providers = TDOC came up around fifth in the search results. Shortly thereafter, my doctor scheduled a tele-health appointment with me via FaceTime. That was enough to take TDOC off my potential investment list. But, I don’t want to talk you out of it by any means if you think it’s at an attractive level.

Well this morning it would strictly be looking at a price action bounce.

But I'm probably not going to. I've been losing way too much money lately to try and catch a quick bounce in an absolute disaster of a stock.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

IMO, it only becomes interesting at these levels if it’s a potential acquisition target. In terms of the core business, last time I looked into the company I started with a simple Google search of telemedicine providers = TDOC came up around fifth in the search results. Shortly thereafter, my doctor scheduled a tele-health appointment with me via FaceTime. That was enough to take TDOC off my potential investment list. But, I don’t want to talk you out of it by any means if you think it’s at an attractive level.

If anyone were ever to crack down on the fact that FaceTime isn’t HIPAA compliant, something like TDOC might pick up steam. I don’t see any big push for it so it probably won’t happen.

 

[RU-05]

GDP was down for the quarter, though Leisman said it had more to do with imports(and something else) than it does with actual economic contraction. He said there weren't many analuysts who predicting a negative # for the quarter, and those that did predict we will once again see growth in the 3rd quarter.

The DJI didn't react too much to the announcement.