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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

This is what the FED is supposed to do. This will bolster the dollar, which is disinflationary.

When I see graphs like this, it seems less likely that there will be a "soft landing".

The guys on radio interview said a smooth transition will be made to seem in the offing but to not to be taken-in.
 
Financial regulators are discussing two different facilities to manage the fallout from the closure of Silicon Valley Bank if no buyer materializes, according to a source close to the situation.

One way that the regulators would step in would be to create a backstop for uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, using an authority from the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, according to the source. Such a move could also spur confidence at similar institutions.

An additional step would be a “general banking facility” from the Federal Reserve that would support other financials with exposure to SVB.

 
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Blue Horseshoe loves FRC.

It is Saturday emergency meeting time once again at the bulge brackets. My friend at MS said that many small regionals may wobble in the next couple of days. FRC is on solid footing even if depositors draw down funds. “It’s apples and oranges compared to SIVB”.

I’m covering my short tomorrow and getting long incrementally on big cracks in price.
 
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Financial regulators are discussing two different facilities to manage the fallout from the closure of Silicon Valley Bank if no buyer materializes, according to a source close to the situation.

One way that the regulators would step in would be to create a backstop for uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, using an authority from the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, according to the source. Such a move could also spur confidence at similar institutions.

An additional step would be a “general banking facility” from the Federal Reserve that would support other financials with exposure to SVB.

Fvck that. Let the markets be the markets. You can’t argue for deregulation and then cry mega millionaire tears when bad things happen.

It’s just like the train derailment in Ohio. For years you hear that regulations are needlessly costly for businesses and that the EPA should be abolished.

Then when a tragedy occurs, everyone looks to the government and yells “you need to do more…NOW” And “why hasn’t so and so come here???”

I thought that we learned in 2008 that moral hazards cost tax payers hundreds of billions.
 
you're wrong and most of these stupid pundits you refer too reallyhaven't a clue on liquidity management or FI.

the reality is that the FED had telegraphed well in advance and nothing was done to alleviate the interest rate risk by svb and many other institutions. Risk off was the frame of management thinking for too long despite obvious changes in the market.
Most importantly, as you said, this ties the Feds hands with future rate increases. That's good for everyone. They did way too much already.
 
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Financial regulators are discussing two different facilities to manage the fallout from the closure of Silicon Valley Bank if no buyer materializes, according to a source close to the situation.

One way that the regulators would step in would be to create a backstop for uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, using an authority from the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, according to the source. Such a move could also spur confidence at similar institutions.

An additional step would be a “general banking facility” from the Federal Reserve that would support other financials with exposure to SVB.

+1
Call it whatever, but intervention is coming to protect all deposits. Probably a good thing.
 
Fvck that. Let the markets be the markets. You can’t argue for deregulation and then cry mega millionaire tears when bad things happen.

It’s just like the train derailment in Ohio. For years you hear that regulations are needlessly costly for businesses and that the EPA should be abolished.

Then when a tragedy occurs, everyone looks to the government and yells “you need to do more…NOW” And “why hasn’t so and so come here???”

I thought that we learned in 2008 that moral hazards cost tax payers hundreds of billions.
That’s also a version of human psychology like the run. All is good, go away leave us alone. Bad stuff happens, where are you we need you.
 
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Ok, I’ve posted my trades and ideas for tomorrow.

Any other plays for you guys tomorrow?
I was put into a couple positions. Uber. Some additional sofi. Some additional pltr. So ill stick to my playbook and sell calls against them.

Will look to sell more puts as well. Hold wfc and jpm so perhaps look to add there. The amzn 88 strikes perhaps.
 
Ok, I’ve posted my trades and ideas for tomorrow.

Any other plays for you guys tomorrow?
Nothing directly on SVB/banking. Just don't know the sector well enough. Besides, if the gov'ment announces a buyer or protection of deposits, I assume the sector will rally hard.

My two big issues are:

1. Figuring out the plan for our new cash (last Tuesday our equity-based bonus dropped and this Wednesday is our annual bonus)
2. What to convert to 2x ETFs?
Also: Still focusing my play money on 3x opportunities.....TQQQ, CURE, LABU, and SOXL again if the price is right.

Still working on a few ideas for #1, but #2 is ready to roll. If a big index drops to -27/28% that means the 2x versions is down 50%. This entry point would provide a nice 100%+ return as the index gets back to ATHs (whenever that happens). Looking at converting small caps plays to UWM, growth/tech to QLD, and S&P 500 to SSO. Temporary "paper losses" don't bother me, my goal is to maximize the future rebound rally.
 
Blue Horseshoe loves FRC.

It is Saturday emergency meeting time once again at the bulge brackets. My friend at MS said that many small regionals may wobble in the next couple of days. FRC is on solid footing even if depositors draw down funds. “It’s apples and oranges compared to SIVB”.

I’m covering my short tomorrow and getting long incrementally on big cracks in price.
I would be careful with any longs in banks right now. I would let the dust settle.

Ok, I’ve posted my trades and ideas for tomorrow.

Any other plays for you guys tomorrow?
Cover your shorts and then wait a few days to do it again.

I was put into a couple positions. Uber. Some additional sofi. Some additional pltr. So ill stick to my playbook and sell calls against them.

Will look to sell more puts as well. Hold wfc and jpm so perhaps look to add there. The amzn 88 strikes perhaps.
No to SOFI in my mind. I got out of most of my SOFI position at a loss and matched it with other gains for tax purposes.
 
I would be careful with any longs in banks right now. I would let the dust settle.


Cover your shorts and then wait a few days to do it again.


No to SOFI in my mind. I got out of most of my SOFI position at a loss and matched it with other gains for tax purposes.
By the way, I played around with BOIL for a bit. Wow, nat gas is nuts. Was up 20%. A few days later down 20%. Got back close to even and bailed with a small loss. Then nat gas dumped to until $2, only to rally out of the blue to over $3. LOL. I'll probably leave that one on the shelf.
 
No to SOFI in my mind. I got out of most of my SOFI position at a loss and matched it with other gains for tax purposes.
Because of svb? Or more in general.

Obviously still not profitable but cheap on other metrics with good trailing growth as well as growth prospects ahead.
 
I would be careful with any longs in banks right now. I would let the dust settle.


Cover your shorts and then wait a few days to do it again.


No to SOFI in my mind. I got out of most of my SOFI position at a loss and matched it with other gains for tax purposes.
+1….sold SOFI on the last rebound (but still at a loss). Would buy it back in the 4.5 area.
 
Like I mentioned above, wonder if they would do like JPM and Bear Stearns and backstop a buyer of SVB.

 
NBC reporting either someone buys the SVB assets or the FDIC makes all depositors whole. So at the end of the day it sounds like depositors should be fully covered. One or the other should be announced before asian markets open.
 
NBC reporting either someone buys the SVB assets or the FDIC makes all depositors whole. So at the end of the day it sounds like depositors should be fully covered. One or the other should be announced before asian markets open.
Does that help to find a buyer or make it more unlikely?
 
NBC reporting either someone buys the SVB assets or the FDIC makes all depositors whole. So at the end of the day it sounds like depositors should be fully covered. One or the other should be announced before asian markets open.
JPM seems to be in the mix as a potential purchaser. Gotta believe this would be a very minor lift for them.
 
I'll be watching Ace. Funny though, right after you pumped the chest out, comical, actually. Enjoy the rest of the day.
We all make typos. But you called people out for being dumb and your mistake was not a typo since you made the same error multiple times even after it was pointed out to you.

Or is this analysis difficult for you to understand Ace?

Notice I used your.
 
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The Fed facility will offer loans of up to one year to banks, saving associations, credit unions and other institutions. Those taking advantage of the facility will be asked to pledge high-quality collateral such as Treasurys, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities.

“This action will bolster the capacity of the banking system to safeguard deposits and ensure the ongoing provision of money and credit to the economy,” the Fed said in a statement. “The Federal Reserve is prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise.”

The Treasury Department is providing up to $25 billion from its Exchange Stabilization Fund as a backstop for the funding program.

Along with the facility, the Fed said it will ease conditions at its discount window, which will use the same conditions as the BTFP.

 
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The Fed facility will offer loans of up to one year to banks, saving associations, credit unions and other institutions. Those taking advantage of the facility will be asked to pledge high-quality collateral such as Treasurys, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities.

“This action will bolster the capacity of the banking system to safeguard deposits and ensure the ongoing provision of money and credit to the economy,” the Fed said in a statement. “The Federal Reserve is prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise.”

The Treasury Department is providing up to $25 billion from its Exchange Stabilization Fund as a backstop for the funding program.

Along with the facility, the Fed said it will ease conditions at its discount window, which will use the same conditions as the BTFP.

Perhaps this will buy a little extra time to find a purchaser? Tough call, but the right one. Now Yellen/WH will put the kibosh on the Fed to prevent other banks from going under.
 
Per NY Times:
"The Federal Reserve, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced in a joint statement that “depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer.”
 
Perhaps this will buy a little extra time to find a purchaser? Tough call, but the right one.
Maybe but the main thing is they want to quell any idea of a spread to other regionals and ensure confidence. The alphabet soup facility and discount window I mentioned as possibilities above will hopefully ease any liquidity concerns of other banks.
 
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Maybe but the main thing is they want to quell any idea of a spread to other regionals and ensure confidence. The alphabet soup facility and discount window I mentioned as possibilities above will hopefully ease any liquidity concerns of other banks.
This is why they needed to do this:

 
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