Unless WFH reverses, this won’t end well:
good, commerical real estate is way too expensive, not practical, and out of touch with the hybrid reality.
What happens to Manhattan? So much of the city revolves around commercial real estate yet even residential suffering with folks fleeing to suburbia and down South. Can’t simply convert commercial RE to condos.
don't care about manhattan, it's overpriced to the point of being unrealistic. On top of that, it's infested with liberals so don't care how much they suffer ha
It’s simply mind-blowing that the Fed and its “transitory” nonsense created such a mess that we are now compared to the early 80s. And, I don’t see how commercial real estate doesn’t have a massive reckoning, not to mention it’s a problem that is almost impossible to fix. At least during the GFC we knew there would always be demand for residential homes and prices would rebound. But the future of commercial real estate is bleak with WFH and conversions to condos take time, tons of money, and assumes people want to live in cities again.
I don’t see how cities can adapt unless they stop new construction of commercial space or figure out a way to convert it to other uses. What can cities do about all the unused commercial space when WFH is becoming a way of life? Even companies in NJ are bailing on large commercial space. AT&T is moving out of its massive campus in Bedminster that it has occupied for as long as I can remember and housed the Global Network Ops Center. That campus was a tax windfall for Bedminster. No other company is going to touch that campus because it’s simply too much space.
Convert to residential. Not a big deal. This is a very slow moving problem, so there is plenty of time to figure it out. No surprises.
One interesting play on the collapse of NYC commercial leasing market - ESRT. It's the trust that is essentially the Empire State Building. It's an iconic structure and may have a portion of it converted to residential. Demand for that would be ultra high.
they should break up the banks, creates more jobs, more manageable, better oversight and then create a loan bank similar to fed where they all 'buy into' for financing large projects
there is more pain coming and especially with demand deposits surging at the big banks
I"m not so sure they can in this particular environment. It's one thing to backstop when no inflation or supply issues, it's entirely different to print money or expand balance sheet when inflation is high and we've got the inflationary pressures present as a result of bad gov't, panicked people over covid, and unrealistic spending habits
Use real-time shelter data (Zillow, Refin, etc.) and YoY inflation is almost 2% right now. Inflation is not a problem.
there is sticky inflation that is not accounting for and you've not see rate locks hit that market. it's really not that simple right now. energy, food, clothing, are all still high as spending has not subsided to where we need it to be. I believe we'll get there but coming down is not the same is being ok
People are already back. Try to get a lunch or dinner reservation. People just don’t want to go back to the office. That’ll change once the job market softens.
no, very few companies are mandating this as it's cheaper for them and staffing is an issue. BofA and GS announced 5 day a week in office and we've been flooded with applications
Most of pharma/biotech has settled on 2-3 days in office (i.e., 50-50 with WFH). Obviously, not including lab people. :)
Most I-banks and buy-side firms are 4 or 5 days in.
Since President Trump moved out, the city has collapsed. Once he rightfully retakes Washington DC, his rising tide will raise all ships; including the hellscape known as NYC. But don’t worry, like Jesus Christ, Donald Trump will return.
You know, ironically, if I'm right about inflation and the economy, Biden will be reelection in a landslide. If you are right about inflation and the economy, Trump term #2 is happening. LOL!
Easy call. Biden win with the abortion issue and the changing demographics doesn’t help the Republican Party. A lot of Republicans appear to have moved to Florida from the swing states. On the other board I’m on, they are mostly Republicans that moved to Florida.
Its always about the economy when it comes to elections.
I keep hearing the same thing but whenever I go to NYC it’s still nothing like it was pre-COVID. Now, with that said, restaurants and entertainment def busy, which may also be due to the fact that a fair amount of restaurants went out of business or cut staff to the point where they can’t accommodate as many guests creating this perception that everywhere is busier than ever.
