OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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what that means is the Fed is far more fearful and feels the risk of bank issues is spreading faster than people realize. It means that the Fed may pivot radically or we'll get some behind the scenes support for banks.
More regulation is coming fyi, no question about that. Not sure I like that as this is really a management of alm issue and not about the Fed. Most of these smaller mid sized banks don't understand interest rate swaps so for them, liability matching is very basic. Of course hiring the wrong people and focusing on the wrong things plays a part.
Of note, may of these banks have scrubbed their 'what we do, who are we' pages to more bank related items given the lawsuits from svb
couple smart players in those comments
this is on the banks management and boards, not the Fed
I'd also say for you, it means sell your re over the next year and then sit tight for the mkt crash because we could see re hit new highs very very fast
Finally moved cash over to my Merrill Edge account from Td Ameritrade account to stay under the $500k SPIC limit. Ameritrade is owned by Schwab so I want to reduce my risk. I see one of my banks may be in trouble by the stock drop.
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Been waiting too long for the market crash but been trading in the mean time.
Wow, this is your conclusion? The reason for the rate cut is due to recession or banking crisis. Does that sound like a bill market?
Not when you have a long investment time horizon and plenty of new cash rolling in! :)
Market is forward looking. This recession has been talked about for almost a year and counting.
#bakedin
Very positive on the long-term success of the company and science, but with most things, gotta be patient. HC is notoriously unpredictable when it comes to individual stock movements. The only individual HC stock I own is my company's via our equity plan. Otherwise, funds and ETFs.
So many regional banks are total shit shows. Just terribly managed. Typically featuring very large, standalone palaces with so many dark offices, and two tellers staffing walk up and drive up customers, with a half dozen unused teller stations. And now with piss-poor risk management of their capital, the Fed's must rescue them? Unbelievable.
I have had a business account, a household checking account, and personal checking account with one for years. Suddenly, it mails me a notice that they've going to start charging for my safe deposit box, albeit at a heavy discount. They'll just deduct the cost from one of my accounts to make it convenient. This despite the totals of those three accounts having a pretty sizeable balance, yet paying me pennies on interest. And now I'm also getting emails from them pushing home equity loans, auto loans, etc. Just pathetic. And desperate. Look out below ....
Calm down, emotional investors are just trying to figure out the regional bank issue. It will be fine.
The Fed screwed the pooch. Should have known better and thought about the possible consequences of their extreme actions. They are causing these bank runs.
Maybe they are in trouble because they gave away too many free perks to earn business. Are you pulling your accounts? If not, they probably didn’t need to discount the SDB.
Because inflation is about 2% YoY when using real-time shelter data. Time to cut rates back to the neutral range of 2.5-3.0%.
Buy the seasonal dip in May and profit for years to come. That's a better saying. :)
At Well Fargo, my sister went into the bank to look at the safe deposit box that my mother has. The bank rep said they have no record of the deposit box and my sister assumed they were right, her memory is hazy. She came back and told our mom, who has even more serious memory problems, but my mom produced a deposit box key. The key did open a lock box that had quite a few old 30 years bonds in my mom name. The bank made the excuse that they changed their computer system and lost track of my mom lock box, even when my sister gave the social security of my mom. If we didn’t remember and push the issue, the lockbox would have been lost forever. I took my $40k in bonds in my mom and my name and cashed it later. I added my name on that lockbox Because my sister has a bad memory.
I wonder how many millions were lost when lockboxes are lost because the bank said they didn’t exist.
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Unfortunately, shorting is necessary to have a fairly balanced market. Irrational exuberance 24/7 is a bad thing in the end
If you don't like a company, don't buy it. Pretty simple. Shorting seems like trying to hurt other people (employees, investors, etc.). Shorting an index is probably fine from a moral POV.
This includes keeping rates to low for too long, which caused bank balance sheets to basically fully reprice at artificially low rates.
Agreed. The Fed needs to be aware of the consequences of their actions. They keep dropping the ball over and over again. It would seem pretty obvious that the banks were reacting as such.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Have one of our 265 unit 70’s vintage assets on the market in Dallas right now. Youd be surprised how much action it’s fetching. No inventory and alot of capital wanting to be put to use.
Granted it a nice asset in a good location. It’s been good to us. Were selling at an in place 6 cap which creates really a win-win for both us and whoever the eventual buyer will be.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Treasuries plummeting.
What is market pricing as of noon for a September cut? Heck, id be curious to see what market thinks for July at this point with this level of action
What is market pricing as of noon for a September cut? Heck, id be curious to see what market thinks for July at this point with this level of action
I'm speaking broadly. If the fed has to do an about face on race and drastically, we'll see few months of spiking prices only to crash after the dust settles. I can't fathom a way out of this where we don't see either massive unemployment, massive slowdown in economic activity or prolonged inflation that changes the middleclass cost structure.
If inflation is at 2.0% why cut rates? We are not trying to increase inflation.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Biden refusing to even cut a penny off the spending is hilarious especially in times like we are in at this very moment.
Interesting show down, who blinks first.
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