OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Except I think the scale back in EV investment is temporary. The market was flooded with supply, demand needs to catch up.
I also just talked to a guy who has been waiting since spring for his Silverado EV. Says he is 18,000 on the waiting list. So demand for Chevy specific EV seems to be there. (sounds like the EV Blazer due out next year is pretty sweet)
Now I don't think I've seen a Silverado EV on the road. I've seen all of one EV Hummer(which looked bad ass) despite first seeing the commercials for it almost 3 years ago. This sounds to me like a production issue, but I don't know what the problem is.
I got into two EV ETF’s a while back. IDRV and HAIL both have done horrible for me so far. I keep waiting for them to go back to break even point but not even close. They were planned long term holds but expected better from them.
I have no problem selling losers if I think there are better options to get me back to whole again (and beyond). I created my own EV custom basket because all the of EV ETFs are way too heavy on traditional companies for my taste.
1.8 million EVs this year. If that is a "problem", what's the word for all other companies? LOL!
That’s a huge problem. Not hitting 50% yoy growth for 2 years in a row. Tesla is closing in on half of the sales Ford does. Is that good?
Ford sells 3.6 million EVs per year? Wow, never knew that. Thanks for the heads up.
🙄
Good column by Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity:
Stock market outlook November 2023 | Fidelity
After a challenging period, major stock indexes might have finally found their footing.
www.fidelity.com
CPI comes in light this morning. Most importantly, CPI shelter math is finally starting to crack and it has another 12 months of declines ahead. This is literally all that matters. Shelter makes up 41.2% of CPI Core.
We are still on track to reach 2% CPI Core YoY by spring/mid 2024. The math is baked.
We are still on track to reach 2% CPI Core YoY by spring/mid 2024. The math is baked.
Fed party is over:
www.morningstar.com
October CPI Report Cements End to Fed Rate Hikes With Inflation Easing
Bond traders expecting four interest rate cuts in 2024.
My UWM was up 11% today! About f'ing time. Small caps have been very slow to join the party.
The Man. His stock list is beating the S&P 500 by 490 bps in 2023. He called this last week (as in the light CPI print and market reaction).
Here’s a question that I think only economists can answer:
If rates are kept at an elevated level, without a corresponding decline in GDP, do they themselves act as an inflationary force?
Let’s say GDP stay at a 2.5-3.5% level for the next yr, does the high interest rates add to inflationary pressures (makes the cost of doing business higher and gets passed on to consumers in the forms of higher prices for goods)?
If rates are kept at an elevated level, without a corresponding decline in GDP, do they themselves act as an inflationary force?
Let’s say GDP stay at a 2.5-3.5% level for the next yr, does the high interest rates add to inflationary pressures (makes the cost of doing business higher and gets passed on to consumers in the forms of higher prices for goods)?
Many companies (I’m specifically thinking of big tech) with pricing power aren’t going to be forced to borrow at these rates. An interesting exercise would be to look at which industries have companies with both pricing power and will also be forced to borrow at the higher rates. I’m sure some oligopolistic industries have this setup. Corporate concentration certainly leads to the stickier-for-longer inflation fears…which probably keeps Powell up at night.
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yes, all things being equal then yes, the rate level elevates the cost of capital
Most big companies have piles of cash or previously loaded up on debt at historic low rates or maybe both. Higher rates aren't an issue for these guys. Now, small caps are the one feeling the brunt of current lending costs.
Yeah. The Russell 2000 is full of companies without pricing power and with cash needs. Interesting that many small-medium cap mutual funds claim the Russell 2000 as their benchmark but of course they are crushing that benchmark by simply avoiding the host of fragile companies in that index and sticking to healthier companies. Russell 2000 peaked in Nov 2021 and I’d be shocked if it hits that mark any time soon. Dow will cruise past the ATH by early 2024 it seems (goofy weighting methodology makes it kinda silly though).
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I like VB as my long-term small cap play. It essentially gets rid of the last 500 stocks in the R2K. Much better returns.
PPI is considered a leading indicator for CPI. It is the cost producers are paying for their products or services which will be eventually passed on to the consumer. Definitely not a perfect leading indicator, but useful nevertheless. The bounce in yields is probably just a counter reaction to yesterday's massive dump.
Target goes Kaboom. Amazing earnings season for the entire market:
www.cnbc.com
Target shares jump more than 17% after retailer posts big earnings beat, even as sales fall again
Target is still catering to shoppers who are hungry for deals and aren't buying much more than the necessities.
Inflation is even plummeting across the pond:
UK inflation slows sharply, boosting BoE and PM Sunak
LONDON (Reuters) -British inflation cooled more than expected in October as household energy prices dropped from a year ago and there was also a wider softening of price pressures, offering relief to the Bank of England and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Annual consumer price inflation plunged to a lower-than-expected 4.6% from 6.7% in September, official data showed. The increase was the smallest in two years and prompted investors to increase their bets on BoE rate cuts next year.
"Now we are beginning to win the battle against inflation we can move to the next part of our economic plan, which is the long-term growth of the British economy," finance minister Jeremy Hunt said.
UK inflation slows sharply, boosting BoE and PM Sunak
LONDON (Reuters) -British inflation cooled more than expected in October as household energy prices dropped from a year ago and there was also a wider softening of price pressures, offering relief to the Bank of England and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Annual consumer price inflation plunged to a lower-than-expected 4.6% from 6.7% in September, official data showed. The increase was the smallest in two years and prompted investors to increase their bets on BoE rate cuts next year.
"Now we are beginning to win the battle against inflation we can move to the next part of our economic plan, which is the long-term growth of the British economy," finance minister Jeremy Hunt said.
rolling risk off the curve to other assets. equities should continue their march higher
I am not a big shopper, but I took my mom to 2 Targets and went another day with my wife and granddaughter to a third, and I have to admit I was impressed with the adequacy of their staffing.Target goes Kaboom. Amazing earnings season for the entire market:
Target shares jump more than 17% after retailer posts big earnings beat, even as sales fall again
Target is still catering to shoppers who are hungry for deals and aren't buying much more than the necessities.
And the staff at the 3 Targets I went to knew where stuff was.
LOL... My dearly departed father-in-law, a woodsman from eastern NC, was perplexed and genuinely upset that a big-box retailer calling itself "Target" did NOT sell ammo. They suggested he go to Walmart. After that one visit he never entered Target again....
I hadn’t been in a Target or Walmart until the last 2-3 years, Target is a little higher class than Walmart. I hear relatives buying clothing at Target for their little kids since the kids outgrow the clothing in 1-2 years. I might have started going to them when Toys R Us closed and no other stores sell toys.
I buy almost everything on Amazon or on line even though a few years ago never used them. Comparing several items, I found almost everything 30% cheaper on Amazon and there‘s a huge selection on line compare to the stores.
My wife and I were discussing how Amazon changed the retail landscape.
Dick’s Sporting Goods in Freehold is moving their store to the old Lord and Taylor location at the mall. They are adding climbing walls, batting cages and other user options. Pure retail might never be able to exist at stores without other drawers to bring people in.
Disney drama builds for Bob Iger as another activist investor builds large stake
Disney’s stock price could trade between $120 and $190 a share, far above its current $94.19 price, ValueAct has suggested.
nypost.com
Warren Buffett moves, including 3 brand new stocks:
www.morningstar.com
3 Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy
Undervalued stocks in Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio, as well as its latest buys and sells from its third-quarter 2023 13F filing.
