Bear Therapy Session. Mike Wilson's first appearance since getting demoted at Morgan Stanley:
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
Id wait(though i do own some now) for it to get out of its downtrend. You’ll probably miss 30% or more but if it sticks the stock is a long term double-triple or more.
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Dan nathan? He talked about this the other day. Them bears stick together thats for sure.
I gave you a very high level response when you asked this. This article popped in my feed and is a good one with a little more detail of all the issues.
Also iirc that Alstom deal was completely written down. Immelt bought a business that was declining on top of which they had to bend over backwards to the French gov’t in a labor friendly environment….ill-timed misguided decisions.
LTC was also an issue that should have been dealt with but instead reared its ugly head after decade or more.
All these issues and then the pandemic cratering travel is as bad a situation you could find and Culp turned the lump of coal into a diamond.
A highlight from the article. 😉
For 2023, GE posted the largest share appreciation of any U.S. industrial, clocking a gain of 95.8%, including value of the GE HealthCare stock investors received at the spinoff. Shareholders who kept their GE HealthCare stock did even better: Its shares jumped 33% last year. It speaks to Wall Street’s esteem for the future of GE’s remaining businesses that its current market cap of $144 billion is half again higher than its valuation when it owned GE HealthCare. Oh, and GE stock handily outperformed Apple, Google, and Microsoft in 2023.
How GE’s CEO Larry Culp ditched mediocre manufacturing and engineered a legendary turnaround—with the help of a Japanese-born ‘sensei’
Culp tells Fortune he turned down the job twice, and explains how he unleashed a transformation that powered the stock up 96% last year, besting Apple and Google.
Apple doesn’t like to buy products. They think they can do it better. We will see.
22x rev's, with 30% rev growth sounds very pricey to me.
People call out SMCI for being an AI hype poster child, but SMCI is significantly cheaper with significantly better growth. I feel companies like PLTR are more indicative of hype pushing a stock.
Granted different industries, so different multiples, and maybe PTLR's growth is more sustainable long term, but I don't know, that price to revs relative to growth sounds rich.
PLTR is a long term buy with a good chance to go into the S&P 500 at some point in the next 12 months. It will continue to grow exponentially. I really like the price action in the stock from $7 to $25. The gaps have been sustained for the most part and orderly. Unfair to compare to SMCI. SMCI is a cyclical stock and will therefore have a lower PE. Competition is more likely to affect SMCI vs a PLTR. having said that SMCI is certainly having a moment and could continue to run higher now that it has gone through a 30+% correction.
RIVN is a no go at this point. I might play for the short term bounce using options, but not going to deploy real capital at this juncture.
RIVN will struggle this year and maybe next. I need to see how they manage their cash in the upcoming quarters before purchasing more stock.
RJ Scaringe needs some CEO interviewing sessions. The CNBC interview from a few days ago was a disaster. it looked like he was going to cry. He had very poor body language and even gulped when asked about reaching profitability in Q4 of 2023. He needs to use the CEO coach that Mark Zuckerberg used in the early days of Facebook. It is clear he is nervous about the future of his company. I am glad I trimmed 50% when they announced last month that they hit their goal of car production but missed delivery targets.
From MS.
"Similarly, looking forward into FY24, the company guided to revenue growth accelerating to 19.5% YoY (from 16.7% in FY23) and topped consensus expectations by ~50 bps at the mid-point, but the Q1 guide looks for revenue growth to slow sequentially to 17.0% YoY and came in slightly below consensus."
Not seeing exponential growth.
But the stock has traded well over the past 12 months.
Got some PLTR at $18, but it hasn't given back much since the earnings rally. Would like to double my position, perhaps at $20'ish if it drifts lower?
Completely agree. I posted the CNBC video yesterday and he was visible depressed. I've had my hand slapped a few times with RIVN. Just this week, I bought around $15.5 and dumped after the earnings report in extended at $13.5.....which turned out to be a good idea.
Maybe a temporary bounce around their R2 event on March 7th? That could be a quick option play.
PLTR is one of Dan Ives' five double table-pounder stocks! I agree with RURAH that it will get into the S&P 500 soon which will be a huge catalyst. It's expensive, but their AI analytics work is heating up.
Their projected revenue for the next quarter is lower because they will be ramping up their infrastructure to accommodate the huge uptick in the demand in their software. Once that is completed, you should see significant uptick in revenue. I don't know who MS is, but they didn't do their homework. The demand for their software is through the roof. My guess (only my guess) is that some point we will start to see NVDA type of quarterly reports. Remember... when it comes to AI, the hardware comes first and then eventually the software catches on.
Great point! The infrastructure is built first (NVDA) and then the companies that use/apply AI become the next round of massive winners. As investors, we need to figure out where the hockey puck is going next.
Even in things like apps and gaming the software has been lagging for awhile.
Windows is spaghetti code and AMD is working on new open source OS.
Enterprise hardware acquisition favors AMD - when they also get the open source tailored AMD will cook.
Of course quantum AI (the "real" AI) will be something different
[News] Nvidia vs. AMD, the Expensive Duel as Two Major Buyers Opt for AMD’s Latest AI GPU | TrendForce Insights
AMD has long aspired to gain more favor for its AI chips, aiming to break into Nvidia's stronghold in the AI chip market. Key players like Meta, OpenA...
www.trendforce.com
To beat Nvidia, AMD bets on open source acquisition and a strategy reminiscent of Linux vs Microsoft era
AMD’s hopes to boost its AI-boosting software portfolio with the purchase of the $36.5m-rated Nod.ai
www.techradar.com
Berkshire Hathaway operating earnings jump 28% in the fourth quarter, cash pile surges to record
The Omaha-based conglomerate posted operating earnings of $8.481 billion in the quarter ending December.
For the layperson like myself, stick with big tech imo especially a MSFT. AMD as well if companies want to diversify from just one supplier. Broadcom maybe.
It’s not much different than biotech imo. If you’re not in the know it’s hard to know which smaller player will come up with the next big thing. If they do, the big guys will come around and buy them out to eliminate the competition or use their tech.
Nice tribute to Munger:Berkshire Hathaway operating earnings jump 28% in the fourth quarter, cash pile surges to record
The Omaha-based conglomerate posted operating earnings of $8.481 billion in the quarter ending December.www.cnbc.com
Warren Buffett calls the late Charlie Munger 'part older brother, part loving father' in heartfelt tribute
In his must-read annual letter Saturday, the 93-year-old "Oracle of Omaha" detailed Munger's instrumental role in helping him expand his conglomerate.
Luckily for laypeople, MSFT is absolutely on the list of companies that will use/apply AI to benefit customers and shareholders. META likely is as well. I believe PLTR, SNOW, and many of the cybersecurity companies. So plenty of well-known names to choose from.
And yes, there will be plenty of new/small companies that will become HUGE due to AI. These are like the "clinical stage biotechs" that are fun to look for, but very difficult to find.
Berkshire Hathaway operating earnings jump 28% in the fourth quarter, cash pile surges to record
The Omaha-based conglomerate posted operating earnings of $8.481 billion in the quarter ending December.
Well if you hold that cash in short term treasuries making 5.2% as opposed to probably 1.2% from 2009-2021 you can afford to be choosy and bide your time.
The Fed raising interest rates was a financial windfall for many companies and investors.....and likely rather inflationary. LOL! If the Fed did nothing, inflation may have come down even quicker.
He often has had a pile of cash regardless of rates and he deploys it if he sees opportunity. If not then he just sits on it.
I never have thought he felt compelled to make a move just because he’s sitting on a ton of money.
Intel is making a move to expand manufacturing to competitors like AMD, MS, Samsung and others . CEO Pat Gelsinger is jumping on the AI bandwagon and highlighting the need to bring manufacturing "back to the West."
Gelsinger was an engineering exec at Intel up to around 2009. He returned as CEO a couple years ago. Intel was in cycle of demise and lost Apple because it couldn't keep cpu manufacturing on schedule. Intel's 10nm processors were said to be functionally equal to TSMC's 7nm but Intel cpus ran hotter and power hungrier. Enterprise ignored them (more expensive to run/cool) for AMD cpus.
Now Intel said its introducing the "angstrom era" (smaller than nanometers) and is on rack for 18 angstroms soon and 14A in 2026.
Intel of course manufactured its own products with its own expensive "fabs." AMD doesn't make its own stuff and some chips were even made in upstate NY.
Its been sad to watch Intel decay but Geslinger might be onto the right track (which is still kinda hype prone) with the fabrication shift. Geslinger is more believable than the former crews
Intel Is Back in the Foundry Business—Entering the Angstrom Era
During Intel’s earnings announcement, CEO Pat Gelsinger made several product announcements that confirmed Intel is back.
aragonresearch.com
Intel will make chips for Microsoft
"I want to manufacture every AI chip in the industry," says Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger.
Wish I brought more, up big today as well as my CRWD. I’ll buy some more today as long term hold.
I added at $261 to my PANW position! Also added to CRWD and ZS on that day. Good T2K. :)
I now think it’s an amazing entry point…
Intel for quite some time has been a 1 step forward 1-2 steps backward company. That somewhat even pre-dates when Lisa Su took the helm at AMD and they kind of had a monopoly on thingsIntel is making a move to expand manufacturing to competitors like AMD, MS, Samsung and others . CEO Pat Gelsinger is jumping on the AI bandwagon and highlighting the need to bring manufacturing "back to the West."
Gelsinger was an engineering exec at Intel up to around 2009. He returned as CEO a couple years ago. Intel was in cycle of demise and lost Apple because it couldn't keep cpu manufacturing on schedule. Intel's 10nm processors were said to be functionally equal to TSMC's 7nm but Intel cpus ran hotter and power hungrier. Enterprise ignored them (more expensive to run/cool) for AMD cpus.
Now Intel said its introducing the "angstrom era" (smaller than nanometers) and is on rack for 18 angstroms soon and 14A in 2026.
Intel of course manufactured its own products with its own expensive "fabs." AMD doesn't make its own stuff and some chips were even made in upstate NY.
Its been sad to watch Intel decay but Geslinger might be onto the right track (which is still kinda hype prone) with the fabrication shift. Geslinger is more believable than the former crews
Intel Is Back in the Foundry Business—Entering the Angstrom Era
During Intel’s earnings announcement, CEO Pat Gelsinger made several product announcements that confirmed Intel is back.Intel will make chips for Microsoft
"I want to manufacture every AI chip in the industry," says Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger.arstechnica.com
I do think there's possibly some potential in bringing manufacturing on shore but that might be some time til we see if there's substantial fruit there. As far as tech advances etc..I'm skeptical when it comes to INTC delivering and capitalizing on it.
Got to be skeptical of INTC until they prove it. They have been in the wilderness for quite a while.
Macy's closing 150 stores. Middle market retail isn't easy. I think you're better placed if you're in Nordstrom Rack/TJ Maxx etc..area for that segment.
Outstanding earnings report for BEAM! All 7 of my small cap biotechs are doing well, but I missed out on BEAM. At least for the time being.
Are you involved with BTC or the etfs at all? I was hoping the etfs would get options by now, but nothing so far. I might have to jump into MARA calls during the next dip.
