OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
Got stopped out on ZETA at $25 and bought back in at $17.5. Back up above $26, so go me! On the other hand, I royally f'ed up SMCI. I literally was on the buy order screen ready to open short-term call options the day before the listing deadline (two Fridays ago?). I just didn't pull the trigger. Well, the stock has almost doubled since then. Don't want to look at the price of those call options now. Mad AF about this one.
Fundamentals and traditional ways of valuing stocks doesn’t matter anymore. It’s all about growth and momentum. And I don’t see that changing until there is a major correction. Most of the losers in my portfolio were companies I did a lot of research on - waste of time LOL. I’ve made way more money on stocks like Palantir, Reddit, NVDA, etc.
PLTR RDDT and NVDA all have great fundamentals as growth is a key fundamental.
NVDA, which is also very expensive on price to rev's at 31x, also has amazing margins, so it's price to earnings is fairly reasonable.
PLTR has even better gross margins at 80%, but not nearly as impressive in terms of operating margins and net profit margins, thus it's P/E is more then 300x.
Definitely momentum is a factor, but I don't think that is especially new. Fundamentals are absolutely still in play though which data points investors focus on have changed.
Probably a good idea but I’ve always been a stock picker. Hard to break old habits
What I’m saying is that applying traditional methods of valuing stocks/companies doesn’t really work anymore, at least not in the current environment. Growth is what people buy now including institutions. Then momentum pushes the stocks higher. This is largely a phenomenon over the last 5 years similar to the late 90s. And after the dotcom crash there was a rotation back to value and traditional fundamentals.
Growth was outperforming value well before covid. Value had a couple year window after the dot.com bubble burst but aside from that it's a 3 decade trouncing by growth.
And it's not just growth that the market value's, margins are a key focus as well, traditional value plays tend to be low margin. The Compound has been talking about this a lot lately.
Momentum has always been a thing.
ULTA which has struggled since the spring, and saw Berkshire buy in, and then sell out, since, is up against the $400 level which I think if it can break through will then allow some runway higher.
Pretty cheap at 16x. A strong performer since it went public. Still at the low end of a long term upward channel. Currently in it's 3rd qtr of 2025 reporting, and 2026 expected to be trough earnings. Which is a narrative we've talked about with other stocks. Struggling stocks wading through a trough.
Very modest Rev's growth.
Pretty cheap at 16x. A strong performer since it went public. Still at the low end of a long term upward channel. Currently in it's 3rd qtr of 2025 reporting, and 2026 expected to be trough earnings. Which is a narrative we've talked about with other stocks. Struggling stocks wading through a trough.
Very modest Rev's growth.
Did you buy SOUN and BBAI? Why did you get out of PLTR? You are now going to incur a short term capital gains tax of 37% on those gains which means that even if the stock goes down 25% and you buy it back, you are behind. You would need the stock to drop more than 37% to make it a smart move. Are you confident that the stock will drop more than 37%?
I am going to try to temporarily get out of SOUN at about $14… if it gets there by tomorrow.
I’ll throw out a small cap software name out there for folks to research… POET. I have not bought it yet. I am waiting for it to drop in the $4-4.5 area before purchasing it.
I'll check out POET!
Sadly, I didn't get into SOUN or BBAI. Yes, I did create a taxable event with PLTR, but that would happen anytime I sold. I did have a small loss based on the timing of a company RSU vest, so I should be good. I may regret selling PLTR, but I think any bad news may temporarily dump the stock and then I can jump back in. I'm new at stock, so learning. :)
Whenever I have let tax considerations drive my trading/investing I have always gotten screwed….
My LULU is also rocking - up 9%:
Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) delivered solid quarterly results, lifting shares higher in after-hours trading with better-than-expected profit and sales, and double-digit comparable sales growth in its international markets.
The company also raised its FY24 guidance above Wall Street’s expectations and raised its share buyback program by another billion dollars.
Lululemon (LULU) shares are up 9% and climbing.
The athleisure retailer earned a profit of $2.87, up from $1.96 a year ago and 15 cents above expectations. Revenue increased 9% to $2.4B, $40M above estimates. Gross margin increased 150 basis points to 58.5%, while operating margin increased 520 basis points to 20.5%.
My four headed monster is CAVA, SG, CMG, and BROS. I am probably too overweight the sector in my portfolio but feel strong about their growth especially if RFK craps all over fast-food. I’m actually up 85% on BROS from around late July.
Thinking of adding to SPOT on the next dip and making it a large position. Unless I’m missing something they have little (real) competition and can easily scale globally because it’s not their programming. In that regard I like the SPOT Stream Share model (30/70 cut with artists) way better than Netflix because Netflix has to produce and acquire content, plus different countries mean different languages and production. Anyone feel free to let me know if I’ve got SPOT wrong.
CMG is relatively healthy food.....as long as you don't load up on sour cream and too much guac. Had a bowl today for lunch.
Roaring Kitty makes cryptic post sending AMC up. AMC then announces it’s selling 50M shares sending it down. Too bad the SEC are a bunch of buffoons.
AMC Entertainment –The stock fell more than 8% after the movie theater chain has agreed to sell up to 50 million shares. This comes after a post on X from meme stock personality “Roaring Kitty” sent shares of both the company and GameStop about 6% higher in the previous session
AMC Entertainment –The stock fell more than 8% after the movie theater chain has agreed to sell up to 50 million shares. This comes after a post on X from meme stock personality “Roaring Kitty” sent shares of both the company and GameStop about 6% higher in the previous session
Thank goodness the traditional market is so much more honest and transparent than the crypto market. :)
It is rather shocking. Then there are reports from the IRS that over 100,000 millionaires aren’t even filing taxes anymore and instead waiting for the IRS to chase them because even if convicted (which never happens because they settle) it’s only a misdemeanor.
Probably just playing the odds now. I assume the IRS will be gutted again over the next 4 years.
Sure. But one is nearly entirely real whilst the other is nearly entirely make believe....
I’m stuck between letting winners run and taking money off the table. It’s been such an incredible year. Even with losses on ZETA, WOLF, and SNOW, and maintaining some cash on sidelines, I’m still waaaaaaay ahead.
Yea, I sell one day when it up big and buy again when it goes down. ADBE will go back to its high at some point same as CRM. My CRM which I mainly brought in July is up close to 40%. Brought META when it was down and now new highs. Some stocks are in my taxable account and it prevent me from selling, the IRA accounts I can trade.
I’m still a little cautious and now have about 28% cash/cd but was maybe 80-85% in the market. I only have a limited amount of funds and have to sell some to buy other stocks, unlike T2K and RUrahh who have unlimited funds.
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My personal account is up +170% YTD! :)
However, much of this includes the well-timed vesting or exercising of company RSUs/options, so unfortunately I don't exactly know how I'm doing. Fidelity doesn't let me back that out. Regardless, my custom stock basket is up 42% YTD so it's crushing the S&P 500. This makes up about half my account.
Sold another 1000 shares of DEFTF today at 3.50. I have 1000 shares left that I'll let ride. I definitely sold my CYFRF too soon at 1.41 when its now over 2.20.
People shouldn’t be glib about becoming a banana republic where paying taxes is not taken seriously. Greece has notoriously had this problem but they’re lucky they have great weather, beaches and ruins for the tourists.
I’d be happy to pay taxes and see the irs gutted. Doesn’t have to be one or the other
PLTR is a beast... where does it go next year? Seems like this company is well positioned with the incoming administration, to do yuge things! Established a nice position Q1 this year at $23 - holding into next year at least until this becomes a LT cap gain.
Maybe I'm ignorant but how are taxes collected properly without an IRS?
BTC back over $100K and ETH over $4K. Life is good. :)
I guess I sold too early! LOL.
But my LULU is ripping today and so is my small-cap biotech basket.
Create a flat tax. Very simple and that is of course what no accountant or the IRS wants.
Something along these lines. It’s entirely too complicated and unnecessary. Don’t need to eliminate the irs, just simplify.
Greg sums it up….
But…You obviously don’t hide your money and transactions in dozens of partnerships unlike certain people.
Anybody somewhat familiar with tax enforcement understands.
So you make millions of small corporations, partnerships and LLCs file BOI reports (well, maybe not after Tuesday) even though they run totally legit businesses, play by the rules and file their tax returns?
