OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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But only four years ago when I was called one of the three little bears 😉 for questioning some crazy valuations, including ARKK.
This time it's different. 🤨
ARKK has been pumping lately! The Wood Express is back.
Regardless, 2020 and 2022 had nothing to do with valuations. Neither did 2018. Nor 2008/2009. So..... :)
Jeremy Grantham himself admitted this. Big Tech broke his model. Enjoy watching. :)
I have to say ever since I abandoned fundamentals and focused on growth, technicals, sentiment/momentum, etc. my returns are almost 3X for the last 6 months when compared to last year. I don’t like the approach. But between the algos, social media, and retail traders we now live in a different world.
It's been this way for a long time, but the trend is accelerating. Just manage your risk on the downside. I love my stop losses. There is just so much damn automatic/passive money flowing into the market it's amazing. Why stand in front of the tidal wave shaking your fist?
Bottom line = most money is made by buying high and selling higher.
I'm going to buy this MF'ing dip. I missed out on WMT so many times (at least I got into COST around $700).
In other news, SHAK and BABA are blowing up on great earnings.
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I have BABA up big, then a bunch of miners and oil up, then a bunch of red.
Edit: A bunch of heads on CNBC have been buying/recommending silver miner AEM, and that chart does look great. ATH's, ripping on the one year and a breakout past resistance which dates back to 2010.
Edit: A bunch of heads on CNBC have been buying/recommending silver miner AEM, and that chart does look great. ATH's, ripping on the one year and a breakout past resistance which dates back to 2010.
I started selling some PLTR to lock-in gains. I still think it’s going to be a monster long-term hold but with insiders looking to sell stock plus gov’t defense spending under a microscope the huge upward moves may be coming to an end for now.
Mentioned UNH was bumping up against resistance around the 550 area, it was rejected. After it broke down through that awhile back, it's probably in its previous trading range.
Not in it, but mentioned mid-ish single digits wasn't a bad place to take shot at WOLF. Pretty defined loss at that level (bankruptcy if that was even on the table) but a shot at high singles low doubles if you think it's got some fundamentals going for it. PLTR, SOFI were other ones that had some nice to big bounces from that area as well. When you're that low, to me that's the time to take the flyer if you believe in the stock.
IMO what's the point of being hesitant in the low-mid singles, the time to be hesitant is when it's got a massive PE and/or shooting to the moon like we've seen with PLTR recently.
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I don't know if I agree with that. I think you might get periods where valuations are stretched and not paid attention to so much but then usually there's a reversion to the mean or more eventually.
I remember when this thread first started, I didn't take part in it much because wasn't interested in many of the names mentioned and others like big tech were too inflated. Sure enough it came back to reality and that's when it was a better time to get in, which I did while taking losses for awhile (despite getting in after big pullbacks) until things snapped back.
Riding momentum up can work if you get in and get out (specifically the exit) before the rug is pulled. I can't guess when that will be, who knows. I prefer the cushion of something that's taken a hit and then look at valuations/technicals/fundamentals alongside that cushion.
It’s always been that way. If you just went with fundamentals, you would never buy anything,
I’ll wait around for next earnings season when it risen again maybe sell at 540 for a 8% return for one quarter. If I wait a year, might be back to $600 for 20%. I use to say I plant the seeds and wait for the plants to grow some next month, some six months later or even a year.
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Brought yesterday under $500 but good till $510. I like to buy low and sell high.
One of the greatest investors (Warren Buffet) of all time says hello. He largely buys and sells based on fundamentals. I agree 100% that you can’t always just base purchases on fundamentals, but to say you wouldn’t buy anything is ridiculously absurd. There have been many great companies that I have purchased based on fundamentals that have made me a lot of money (and I still own them) while I have lost my shirt on several when I strayed from looking at fundamentals.
Not exactly. Buffett was purely a fundamental investor early on when data and knowledge was scarce. Munger got him to adapt and modernize this POV because it wasn’t working anymore. His largest position ever was much more about growth and potential versus valuation.
When information is readily available to all, companies with traditionally attractive fundamentals are mostly value traps that get crushed by the S&P 500 let alone the more growthy sectors.
It’s way before my time, but it’s my understanding WB got his start when information was power and hard to get. Unless you had a Bloomberg terminal or access to inside info, you were stuck reading stale stock charts and analyst opinions in trade journals or the Finance sections of newspapers. By the time social media and the internet changed investing forever WB was already sitting pretty.
Same with real estate. The days of knocking on someone’s door hoping to swindle their property are gone. First thing someone does is check Zillow or online comps. Access to info leveled the playing field.
+1
The days of having an information advantage are long gone. At least legally! LOL.
buying on fundamentals does not ignore growth, especially growth that can be measured based on trends. However, it does keep investors away from buying potentially overvalued stocks where there is significant speculation and unsubstantiated euphoria. I’m not saying speculation isn’t effective, but there are fundamentally strong companies that can be purchased as well as speculative companies that have significant potential growth.
Very fair.
By the way, you would really like David Giroux from T Rowe Price. One of the best fund managers in the business. He runs a 5-star gold moderate allocation fund (PRWCX/TRAIX) and loves to talk about GARP stocks! :)
The fund is closed to new investors unless you have a TRP account.
Hmm, not sure about selling CRWD. No idea what FTAI is! Need to look that one up. Probably time for me to start trimming my GLD futures on Coinbase. They keep ripping but maybe $3000 will be resistance for a while?
IMO the biggest takeaway from him is the “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful,” ….everyone knows that quote but when the time comes and push comes to shove how many actually step in versus being paralyzed and scared.
He sits on tons of cash if he doesn’t see anything worthwhile to deploy it on.
I sit on cash in downturn or boom (decade of crap rates lol) regardless because it’s a security blanket for me. Regardless of the return, or lack thereof, it’s serving its purpose. With my conservative nature knowing that’s there both allows me to step in and catch some knives and have the resources to accumulate if necessary while doing it.
I’ve said here, it’s important to know your own psychology and risk tolerances. If you know your margins you can work within them, self awareness is important. Everyone is different.
Been in it for 25 years. New Horizons had a great run but got hammered in 2022. Still did well as a long term investment and is slowly coming back.
I was in New Horizons from 2005 to middle'ish of 2022 (IIRC). I cut the position by almost 3/4 before getting out of it entirely. The new fund manager had a very rough start. Still did amazingly well over the long-term versus benchmarks. I also got out of a few other T Rowe Funds around the same time. I'm only still in PRWCX/TRIAX and its S&P 500 index. Everything else I moved to other top-ranked Morningstar funds/etfs which have performed very well.
Are you rocking any other funds? FDRGX, FBGRX, DODGX along with PRWCX/TRAIX are my top choices. I also got into PRWAX. This great young manager is kicking butt.
I agree, and while WB evolved somewhat, he doesn’t and hasn’t and won’t overpay. So it’s fundamentals, growth, mote, etc. not just “one”factor—just my opinion. And, on a related matter, with respect to the last couple days, “I’ve seen this movie before.” Prolonged bull market, lots of “new” and retail investors jumping into the market, big gains over short period, then people bailing out.” Stocks like Robin Hood, which I don’t and probably never will hold, do very well in these bull markets, same with ARK woods. This all to me sounds something akin to dot com and Covid “stick it to the man” until there is a correction then a lot of new retail investors (and some hedge funds, ha) bail. As someone who is largely buy and hold, I don’t pay much attention to short term swings. But as I’ve said, lots of different ways and strategies to make money so good luck to all.
You need to check HOOD’s latest earnings. Crushed it.
Not just crypto and options either as they recently bought a wealth mgmt company.
HOOD is becoming the Fidelity of Gen Z and younger Millennials. This isn't 2021 anymore.
I kind of agree with that from things I’ve read. I wouldn’t put money there but I do think the younger crowd doesn’t have the same hesitation.
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