OT: Stock and Investment Talk

RU-05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Good job! I don’t trade with anywhere near that kind of frequency but I’m at a different stage in life, being retired.
All the block chains have cooled after a pretty ridiculous run. I took a hit on the final day of my holding but I did very well overall, and those stocks have continued to tumble in recent days. So yeah, happy with how that played out.

If the crypto's get hot again, those block chains will get hot again as well. RIOT and MARA will be your most establish, BTCS will be one with a super high beta.

I'll be back in eventually. Maybe a couple times.
 

rutgersdave

Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Jan 23, 2004
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If you were trading frequently in a taxable account and held a security for less than a year, you’d pay taxes on your gain at your ordinary income bracket rather than a lower long term capital gain rate. Depending on your income level, it can make quite a difference.
That is correct. I’m retired also but I stopped gambling on the poker tables and trading is a hobby.
 
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jtung230

All American
Jun 30, 2005
8,403
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If you were trading frequently in a taxable account and held a security for less than a year, you’d pay taxes on your gain at your ordinary income bracket rather than a lower long term capital gain rate. Depending on your income level, it can make quite a difference.
You are correct about taxes but most people would tell you that you should invest in the IRA, not trade. Your are 100% correct if you never have losses.
 
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RU-05

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Jun 25, 2015
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FB was 303 in Sept. Amzn high was 3500 in Sept and now 3220 after today 100 pt gain. I buy them when they go down 10-15% from their high and sell when they approach the high again. I have my worksheet tracing them.

The trades that you are making, are you buying hundreds of thousands? If you buy big enough, a 5-10% return is great.
Nah, I'm small time.

But you are right those companies are down from Sept highs, so why stay out now?
 

rutgersdave

Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Jan 23, 2004
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Nah, I'm small time.

But you are right those companies are down from Sept highs, so why stay out now?
Some of them have already hit their highs from Sept and I sold them. As the get close to their high I sell in increments to take the profits. Most will reach their highs the day before the earnings comes out. AMZN been trading back and forth from 3,100 to 3,300 for the last 2 months and I been buying and selling 2-8 shared back and forth. I sold 10 shares today after 100 pt gain but still have 35 shares. I expect it to get to 3,500 by earnings.

I’ll buy the same stocks again when the earning comes out. Eventually, they will drop 10-15% before the next earning season and wait for them to go back to their highs. What’s funny is when the analysts say that Techs are out of favor and people are rotating to other sectors is when I am buying Tech. Tech will come back into favor in a couple of months.
 
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RU-05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Some of them have already hit their highs from Sept and I sold them. As the get close to their high I sell in increments to take the profits. Most will reach their highs the day before the earnings comes out. AMZN been trading back and forth from 3,100 to 3,300 for the last 2 months and I been buying and selling 2-8 shared back and forth. I sold 10 shares today after 100 pt gain but still have 35 shares. I expect it to get to 3,500 by earnings.

I’ll buy the same stocks again when the earning comes out. Eventually, they will drop 10-15% before the next earning season and wait for them to go back to their highs. What’s funny is when the analysts say that Techs are out of favor and people are rotating to other sectors is when I am buying Tech. Tech will come back into favor in a couple of months.
The difference from this qtr and the sept qtr was those stocks were on fire going into earnings, they are meandering now. They will likely behave differently post earning given that they are behaving differently prior no?
 

rutgersdave

Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Jan 23, 2004
20,419
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The difference from this qtr and the sept qtr was those stocks were on fire going into earnings, they are meandering now. They will likely behave differently post earning given that they are behaving differently prior no?
Msft, APPL, PYPL, and NVDA, already hit their Sept highs and I sold and when they retreated again I brought them again but in a lower quantity. Generally, maybe 75% of the time, they will rise when the earning comes out. The stocks generally drops after earning season.

It’s a game. Nothing to watch until next earning season. Another technique in trading stocks.
 

RU-05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Along the lines of a legacy car company with a historically solid business transitioning to EV, check out BWA.

If those estimated futures prove to be accurate, this is a good one here.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
10,687
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113
Along the lines of a legacy car company with a historically solid business transitioning to EV, check out BWA.

If those estimated futures prove to be accurate, this is a good one here.
Last close = $39.30
FMV = $64.00

MS analysis:

Analyst Note | by Richard Hilgert Updated Oct 30, 2020
BorgWarner reported third-quarter earnings per share before special items of $0.88, ahead of the $0.79 CapIQ consensus EPS estimate by $0.09 but $0.08 below the year-ago result due to a higher effective tax rate. Consolidated revenue returned to growth, increasing 1.7% to $2.5 billion but would have been up 0.8% excluding favorable currency effect. Sequentially from second to third quarter, revenue rebounded 78%. Adjusted EBIT was $317 million with a margin of 12.5% versus $294 million and an 11.8% margin reported last year, a solid result considering the lingering effects of coronavirus. The acquisition of Delphi was closed on the first day of the fourth quarter and is not included in third-quarter results, except for $16 million in merger related expenses excluded from adjusted EBIT.

BorgWarner’s organic revenue increase outperformed a 2% decline in global light vehicle production (weighted to the company’s geographic exposure) by roughly 3 percentage points, demonstrating our investment thesis that BorgWarner’s change in revenue will consistently be above the change in its addressable market. BorgWarner shares currently trade at a 45% discount to our $64 fair value estimate. Even though COVID-19 may continue to create near-term stock price volatility, we think the 5-star-rated shares are attractively valued.

Management guidance assumes full-year global light vehicle production to be down by about 19%. As a result, the company expects 2020 revenue to range between $9.70 billion and $9.85 billion, including Delphi revenue of about $975 million. Despite the drop in production, management forecasts positive 2020 free cash flow of $475 million to $525 million, including $100 million in cash costs for Delphi integration. Barring a COVID-19 resurgence, we expect BorgWarner to maintain its $0.17 quarterly dividend. Liquidity remains healthy at $3.6 billion, including $2.1 billion in cash and $1.5 billion in undrawn credit availability.

Business Strategy and Outlook | by Richard Hilgert Updated Oct 30, 2020
BorgWarner is well positioned to capitalize on industry trends arising from global clean air legislation, consumers' demand for fuel economy, and the popularity of sport utility and crossover vehicles around the world. The company benefits from its ability to continuously innovate, a global manufacturing footprint, highly integrated long-term customer ties, high customer switching costs, and moderate pricing power from new technologies. The acquisition of Delphi Technologies on Oct. 1 supports our thesis.

In our opinion, BorgWarner is well positioned for the trends in the auto sector that will result in revenue growth in excess of the growth in global automobile demand. We estimate 5% average annual revenue growth over our five-year forecast, roughly 2-4 percentage points higher than our expectations for 1%-3% long-term growth in global light-vehicle demand. We expect turbocharged fuel-injected four-cylinder gasoline engine penetration to accelerate, given more stringent clean air legislation around the world. We also think that the early demise of the diesel engine in passenger vehicle applications is overexaggerated by the market. Turbochargers, one of BorgWarner's products for which it commands an industry-leading market share, are a cost-effective way for OEMs to improve engine efficiency. Fuel-injection technology from the Delphi acquisition also improves efficiency. Combined, both technologies increase fuel economy, lowering tailpipe emissions.

BorgWarner is also well positioned for growth in hybrids and battery electric vehicles. The Delphi acquisition adds electric and electronic controls to BorgWarner's electric motors and driveline technologies. Regardless of the powertrain automakers chose, we think BorgWarner's revenue growth potential remains unchanged. BorgWarner's drivetrain business includes wet dual-clutch and torque transfer technologies. Dual-clutch transmissions, which contain eight or more gears, compared with older technology automatic transmissions equipped with four gears, can generate 5%-15% in fuel savings. Torque transfer devices enable all-wheel drive and four-wheel drive for globally popular sport utility and crossover vehicles.

Economic Moat | by Richard Hilgert Updated Oct 30, 2020
BorgWarner's economic moat rating is narrow. The sources of the company's moat include intangible assets, high customer switching costs, and cost advantages. BorgWarner benefits from a substantial global manufacturing presence, highly integrated and long-term customer ties, and a moderate level of pricing power from the regular commercialization of new technologies.

BorgWarner's consistent technology innovation and ability to find alternative vehicular applications enable more favorable pricing relative to many automotive industry suppliers, increasing the company's dollar content per vehicle. Automakers are willing to pay for components and systems that provide substantial product differentiation, weight reduction, enhanced safety, or reduced cost, all while meeting fuel efficiency and emissions regulatory requirements, as is the case with BorgWarner.

For example, the company's gas and diesel turbochargers and fuel-injectors, exhaust gas recirculation valves, dual-clutch transmission components, timing chains, and cam phasers have a combined potential to improve fuel economy by 25%-50%. If automakers chose to meet these regulations by developing a hybrid or all-electric vehicle, BorgWarner is ready with technology that meets its customers' demands, like integrated drive modules, electric motors, eGearDrive, high voltage inverters, cabin heaters, and hybrid fan drives.

Demonstrating BorgWarner's innovation as well as the benefit of having a globally diverse customer base, from 1999 to 2009 revenue grew at a 5.0% annual rate, comparing extremely well against the backdrop of an annualized 4.7% decline in U.S. light-vehicle sales volume over the same time frame. From 1999 to 2007, BorgWarner's precrisis peak year, revenue grew at a 10% annualized rate, compared with an annualized 0.6% decline in U.S. light-vehicle unit sales. Even though U.S. light-vehicle sales units declined at a 20% annualized rate from 2007 to 2009, the company's sales declined at a slower 14% annualized rate.

BorgWarner's customers would incur prohibitively high switching costs should they withdraw business in the middle of a vehicle program, especially when BorgWarner has a supply agreement for a complete set of engine, drivetrain, electrified powertrain components. Costs of switching to another supplier would include the substantial lead time and investment to develop and validate new components; potentially the construction of new supply facility, the risk that the customer experiences production disruptions; and moving large, expensive heavy equipment and tooling. The whole process of changing a critical supplier like BorgWarner might cost an OEM as little as a few million dollars to several hundred million dollars, depending on the size and scope of the components or systems replaced.

Automotive OEMs want vendors like BorgWarner that can supply their global requirements. To reduce cost, the underlying structure and powertrain of a particular vehicle sold in the U.S. may be the same as another vehicle sold in Europe, South America, or Asia. Also, some countries have local content laws that require a certain percentage of components be sourced from within that country. Winning a contract to supply a major component or system for a global vehicle program requires a supplier with a substantial global manufacturing presence. Developing a manufacturing footprint the size of BorgWarner's, with a presence in 18 countries, would require a high amount of capital investment, a substantial barrier to entry for potential new competitors.

Close ties with OEM customers are integral to success in the automotive industry supply base and create another significant barrier to entry. New vehicle powertrain lead times can be as long as 48 months. Since increased fuel economy and emission reduction are mandated, BorgWarner's engineers participate very early in the development process, especially when an all new powertrain is being developed.

Once launched, most vehicle programs have a 5- to 10-year lifecycle while many powertrain programs have a 10- to 15-year lifecycle, assuring BorgWarner long-term contractual streams of revenue, albeit subject to volume changes dependent on consumer demand. When a vehicle nameplate has a complete redesign, including powertrain, and BorgWarner is the supplier for the predecessor program, the company typically becomes the incumbent supplier for the redesigned successor vehicle program. In total, BorgWarner potentially has a 6- to 13-year tie-up with each customer's vehicle program with up to an additional year for new powertrain programs. We view BorgWarner's diverse, well-established, long-term, highly integrated customer relations supplying hundreds of vehicle programs as providing an intangible asset moat source.

Fair Value and Profit Drivers | by Richard Hilgert Updated Oct 30, 2020
We recently raised our fair value estimate on the shares of BorgWarner to $64 per share from $60 after including the acquisition of Delphi Technologies in our Stage I forecast. We expect revenue to grow at an organic 5% annualized rate over our five-year forecast period as automaker customers focus on reducing vehicle emissions. We estimate 2020 proforma revenue of $12.6 billion, down 13% from pro forma 2019 revenue of $14.5 billion, due to the outbreak of COVID-19. However, a no-deal Brexit trade agreement represents significant risk to our forecast as roughly 40% of BorgWarner's revenue comes from the euro region. Even so, management targets 5 percentage points of outperformance versus the year-over-year change in light-vehicle production. We expect capital expenditures to average 5.7% of sales, and we employ an 8.4% weighted average cost of capital to discount projected cash flows.

BorgWarner's ability to consistently innovate provides long-term pricing opportunities that, in conjunction with cost advantages derived from low-cost country locations, should support above-industry-average EBITDA margins. Over the past 15 years, the company has generated EBITDA margins as high as 18.3% (2019) and as low as 9.7% (2009) with a 16.5% median. We assume a normalized sustainable midcycle 16.7% EBITDA margin, reflecting cost synergies from the Delphi Technologies acquisition, partially offset by slightly lower historical Delphi margin.

We assume BorgWarner's cost of equity is 9%, in line with the 9% rate of return we expect investors will demand of a diversified equity portfolio. This reflects BorgWarner’s sensitivity to the economic cycle, relatively lower financial leverage, and strong operating performance relative to other automotive suppliers. We assume a cost of debt at 5.8%, in line with spreads for similar credit profiles. BorgWarner's total debt/total capital has averaged less than 15% over the past 10 years and we weight equity at 87% and debt at 13%. Our cost of capital assumptions, along with a 25% tax rate, result in an 8.4% weighted average cost of capital.
 
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phs73rc77gsm83

Senior
Gold Member
Aug 11, 2011
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You are correct about taxes but most people would tell you that you should invest in the IRA, not trade. Your are 100% correct if you never have losses.
Agreed. I really don’t “trade” much and all my individual stocks are in taxable. My traditional IRA has the majority of my fixed income allocation, along with equity funds. Roth is all equity funds.
 

RU-05

All American
Jun 25, 2015
6,844
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Last close = $39.30
FMV = $64.00

MS analysis:

Analyst Note | by Richard Hilgert Updated Oct 30, 2020
BorgWarner reported third-quarter earnings per share before special items of $0.88, ahead of the $0.79 CapIQ consensus EPS estimate by $0.09 but $0.08 below the year-ago result due to a higher effective tax rate. Consolidated revenue returned to growth, increasing 1.7% to $2.5 billion but would have been up 0.8% excluding favorable currency effect. Sequentially from second to third quarter, revenue rebounded 78%. Adjusted EBIT was $317 million with a margin of 12.5% versus $294 million and an 11.8% margin reported last year, a solid result considering the lingering effects of coronavirus. The acquisition of Delphi was closed on the first day of the fourth quarter and is not included in third-quarter results, except for $16 million in merger related expenses excluded from adjusted EBIT.

BorgWarner’s organic revenue increase outperformed a 2% decline in global light vehicle production (weighted to the company’s geographic exposure) by roughly 3 percentage points, demonstrating our investment thesis that BorgWarner’s change in revenue will consistently be above the change in its addressable market. BorgWarner shares currently trade at a 45% discount to our $64 fair value estimate. Even though COVID-19 may continue to create near-term stock price volatility, we think the 5-star-rated shares are attractively valued.

Management guidance assumes full-year global light vehicle production to be down by about 19%. As a result, the company expects 2020 revenue to range between $9.70 billion and $9.85 billion, including Delphi revenue of about $975 million. Despite the drop in production, management forecasts positive 2020 free cash flow of $475 million to $525 million, including $100 million in cash costs for Delphi integration. Barring a COVID-19 resurgence, we expect BorgWarner to maintain its $0.17 quarterly dividend. Liquidity remains healthy at $3.6 billion, including $2.1 billion in cash and $1.5 billion in undrawn credit availability.

Business Strategy and Outlook | by Richard Hilgert Updated Oct 30, 2020
BorgWarner is well positioned to capitalize on industry trends arising from global clean air legislation, consumers' demand for fuel economy, and the popularity of sport utility and crossover vehicles around the world. The company benefits from its ability to continuously innovate, a global manufacturing footprint, highly integrated long-term customer ties, high customer switching costs, and moderate pricing power from new technologies. The acquisition of Delphi Technologies on Oct. 1 supports our thesis.

In our opinion, BorgWarner is well positioned for the trends in the auto sector that will result in revenue growth in excess of the growth in global automobile demand. We estimate 5% average annual revenue growth over our five-year forecast, roughly 2-4 percentage points higher than our expectations for 1%-3% long-term growth in global light-vehicle demand. We expect turbocharged fuel-injected four-cylinder gasoline engine penetration to accelerate, given more stringent clean air legislation around the world. We also think that the early demise of the diesel engine in passenger vehicle applications is overexaggerated by the market. Turbochargers, one of BorgWarner's products for which it commands an industry-leading market share, are a cost-effective way for OEMs to improve engine efficiency. Fuel-injection technology from the Delphi acquisition also improves efficiency. Combined, both technologies increase fuel economy, lowering tailpipe emissions.

BorgWarner is also well positioned for growth in hybrids and battery electric vehicles. The Delphi acquisition adds electric and electronic controls to BorgWarner's electric motors and driveline technologies. Regardless of the powertrain automakers chose, we think BorgWarner's revenue growth potential remains unchanged. BorgWarner's drivetrain business includes wet dual-clutch and torque transfer technologies. Dual-clutch transmissions, which contain eight or more gears, compared with older technology automatic transmissions equipped with four gears, can generate 5%-15% in fuel savings. Torque transfer devices enable all-wheel drive and four-wheel drive for globally popular sport utility and crossover vehicles.

Economic Moat | by Richard Hilgert Updated Oct 30, 2020
BorgWarner's economic moat rating is narrow. The sources of the company's moat include intangible assets, high customer switching costs, and cost advantages. BorgWarner benefits from a substantial global manufacturing presence, highly integrated and long-term customer ties, and a moderate level of pricing power from the regular commercialization of new technologies.

BorgWarner's consistent technology innovation and ability to find alternative vehicular applications enable more favorable pricing relative to many automotive industry suppliers, increasing the company's dollar content per vehicle. Automakers are willing to pay for components and systems that provide substantial product differentiation, weight reduction, enhanced safety, or reduced cost, all while meeting fuel efficiency and emissions regulatory requirements, as is the case with BorgWarner.

For example, the company's gas and diesel turbochargers and fuel-injectors, exhaust gas recirculation valves, dual-clutch transmission components, timing chains, and cam phasers have a combined potential to improve fuel economy by 25%-50%. If automakers chose to meet these regulations by developing a hybrid or all-electric vehicle, BorgWarner is ready with technology that meets its customers' demands, like integrated drive modules, electric motors, eGearDrive, high voltage inverters, cabin heaters, and hybrid fan drives.

Demonstrating BorgWarner's innovation as well as the benefit of having a globally diverse customer base, from 1999 to 2009 revenue grew at a 5.0% annual rate, comparing extremely well against the backdrop of an annualized 4.7% decline in U.S. light-vehicle sales volume over the same time frame. From 1999 to 2007, BorgWarner's precrisis peak year, revenue grew at a 10% annualized rate, compared with an annualized 0.6% decline in U.S. light-vehicle unit sales. Even though U.S. light-vehicle sales units declined at a 20% annualized rate from 2007 to 2009, the company's sales declined at a slower 14% annualized rate.

BorgWarner's customers would incur prohibitively high switching costs should they withdraw business in the middle of a vehicle program, especially when BorgWarner has a supply agreement for a complete set of engine, drivetrain, electrified powertrain components. Costs of switching to another supplier would include the substantial lead time and investment to develop and validate new components; potentially the construction of new supply facility, the risk that the customer experiences production disruptions; and moving large, expensive heavy equipment and tooling. The whole process of changing a critical supplier like BorgWarner might cost an OEM as little as a few million dollars to several hundred million dollars, depending on the size and scope of the components or systems replaced.

Automotive OEMs want vendors like BorgWarner that can supply their global requirements. To reduce cost, the underlying structure and powertrain of a particular vehicle sold in the U.S. may be the same as another vehicle sold in Europe, South America, or Asia. Also, some countries have local content laws that require a certain percentage of components be sourced from within that country. Winning a contract to supply a major component or system for a global vehicle program requires a supplier with a substantial global manufacturing presence. Developing a manufacturing footprint the size of BorgWarner's, with a presence in 18 countries, would require a high amount of capital investment, a substantial barrier to entry for potential new competitors.

Close ties with OEM customers are integral to success in the automotive industry supply base and create another significant barrier to entry. New vehicle powertrain lead times can be as long as 48 months. Since increased fuel economy and emission reduction are mandated, BorgWarner's engineers participate very early in the development process, especially when an all new powertrain is being developed.

Once launched, most vehicle programs have a 5- to 10-year lifecycle while many powertrain programs have a 10- to 15-year lifecycle, assuring BorgWarner long-term contractual streams of revenue, albeit subject to volume changes dependent on consumer demand. When a vehicle nameplate has a complete redesign, including powertrain, and BorgWarner is the supplier for the predecessor program, the company typically becomes the incumbent supplier for the redesigned successor vehicle program. In total, BorgWarner potentially has a 6- to 13-year tie-up with each customer's vehicle program with up to an additional year for new powertrain programs. We view BorgWarner's diverse, well-established, long-term, highly integrated customer relations supplying hundreds of vehicle programs as providing an intangible asset moat source.

Fair Value and Profit Drivers | by Richard Hilgert Updated Oct 30, 2020
We recently raised our fair value estimate on the shares of BorgWarner to $64 per share from $60 after including the acquisition of Delphi Technologies in our Stage I forecast. We expect revenue to grow at an organic 5% annualized rate over our five-year forecast period as automaker customers focus on reducing vehicle emissions. We estimate 2020 proforma revenue of $12.6 billion, down 13% from pro forma 2019 revenue of $14.5 billion, due to the outbreak of COVID-19. However, a no-deal Brexit trade agreement represents significant risk to our forecast as roughly 40% of BorgWarner's revenue comes from the euro region. Even so, management targets 5 percentage points of outperformance versus the year-over-year change in light-vehicle production. We expect capital expenditures to average 5.7% of sales, and we employ an 8.4% weighted average cost of capital to discount projected cash flows.

BorgWarner's ability to consistently innovate provides long-term pricing opportunities that, in conjunction with cost advantages derived from low-cost country locations, should support above-industry-average EBITDA margins. Over the past 15 years, the company has generated EBITDA margins as high as 18.3% (2019) and as low as 9.7% (2009) with a 16.5% median. We assume a normalized sustainable midcycle 16.7% EBITDA margin, reflecting cost synergies from the Delphi Technologies acquisition, partially offset by slightly lower historical Delphi margin.

We assume BorgWarner's cost of equity is 9%, in line with the 9% rate of return we expect investors will demand of a diversified equity portfolio. This reflects BorgWarner’s sensitivity to the economic cycle, relatively lower financial leverage, and strong operating performance relative to other automotive suppliers. We assume a cost of debt at 5.8%, in line with spreads for similar credit profiles. BorgWarner's total debt/total capital has averaged less than 15% over the past 10 years and we weight equity at 87% and debt at 13%. Our cost of capital assumptions, along with a 25% tax rate, result in an 8.4% weighted average cost of capital.
Yeah, that's what I said.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
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I very much dislike when politics take over CNBC. There are a dozen political channels including an NBC affiliate. But somehow that is not enough.
Yeah, but politics does impact the market. Keeping up with the basics is important.
 
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RU-05

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Jun 25, 2015
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TDOC topped out in early august at $254. Meandered and bottomed out in early Nov at $175. Has been charging since. Ready for a break out?

The biggest holding in one of those ARK's.
 
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RUJohnny99

Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Nov 7, 2003
34,788
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105
Not that taxes should be the main driver but you guys getting in and out of a position with regularity causes you to pay short term capital gains taxes (taxed as ordinary income) rather than a preferential long term capital gains rate. As you know, that can add up. But again, it shouldn’t be the main determinant.
That's assuming they have gains. We only hear about the winners.
 

mdk01

Heisman Winner
Aug 18, 2011
12,785
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I actually like getting my politics from CNBC, I just don't want it taking over. Especially the fast money shows.
Well it has a tilt, as opposed to the double black diamond ski trail slant you get elsewhere.
 

bob-loblaw

Senior
Jan 24, 2011
1,340
232
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agree Cardano won't be a 10 bagger since already at 12 billion out of staking. won't be worth as much as ethereum. but many love as growth fund - 3-4 bagger.
i am going to get in on Cardano, just don't know when to pull trigger. there is a March update, so might spike?
Im just not sold on Cardano still. A lot of these alts finagled their way into the top 50 on Coinmarketcap.

I still think you can see better returns on ELA or DCR. I've been digging into NIM as well, not sure if/when Im goint to take a position there. I anticipate waking up one day to ELA pooping off 7-10x. I feel the same way about this as I did about BTC in july or aug. BTC just sat around 10k for a while. We all knew the pop was coming soon. Ask anyone in the small Ela community right now, we all feel the same way.

I very much dislike when politics take over CNBC. There are a dozen political channels including an NBC affiliate. But somehow that is not enough.
I'm 50/50 on it. Days like today on Jan 6th warrant it. Random hearings do not. The one positive is that Shep Smith is by far the best talking head on cable news. He was the only bright spot at Fox back in the day, and he's crushed it in his current role on CNBC
 

RU-05

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I'm 50/50 on it. Days like today on Jan 6th warrant it. Random hearings do not. The one positive is that Shep Smith is by far the best talking head on cable news. He was the only bright spot at Fox back in the day, and he's crushed it in his current role on CNBC
Not a big fan of Shep. Like Bret Baier much better.

And if I want to watch the inauguration I could just flip the channel.

But I digress.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
10,687
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Im just not sold on Cardano still. A lot of these alts finagled their way into the top 50 on Coinmarketcap.

I still think you can see better returns on ELA or DCR. I've been digging into NIM as well, not sure if/when Im goint to take a position there. I anticipate waking up one day to ELA pooping off 7-10x. I feel the same way about this as I did about BTC in july or aug. BTC just sat around 10k for a while. We all knew the pop was coming soon. Ask anyone in the small Ela community right now, we all feel the same way.



I'm 50/50 on it. Days like today on Jan 6th warrant it. Random hearings do not. The one positive is that Shep Smith is by far the best talking head on cable news. He was the only bright spot at Fox back in the day, and he's crushed it in his current role on CNBC
How far do you see BTC going down before the next pop? Below 30k?
 

ScarletNut

All Conference
Jul 27, 2001
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How far do you see BTC going down before the next pop? Below 30k?
I don't think it'll get below 30k but not 100% sure. I am quite confidant that its bullish run will continue after this pullback and consolidation. Its been 8 months since the last halving. The previous bull runs lasted 12-18 months after halving and those were without the institutional support and wider acceptance that we are seeing now. I'll predict that you'll be a happy puppy if you hold on until the summer.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
10,687
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I don't think it'll get below 30k but not 100% sure. I am quite confidant that its bullish run will continue after this pullback and consolidation. Its been 8 months since the last halving. The previous bull runs lasted 12-18 months after halving and those were without the institutional support and wider acceptance that we are seeing now. I'll predict that you'll be a happy puppy if you hold on until the summer.
Got it. Same prediction for ETH starting a new run? As I mentioned before, I created a new portfolio just "fun" stuff (spending balance approved by the boss 😂 ).
 
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tom1944

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Based on annualized returns for the S&P 500 the U.S. benchmark, Trump (+13.7%) saw the third-best performance of the 15 presidents who have served since 1929, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Trump, however, slightly trailed his immediate predecessor, Barack Obama (+13.8%). Bill Clinton (+15.2%) claims the top spot.
 

Mr. Gerbz

Senior
Aug 30, 2004
1,155
133
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Some thought that the megacap tech's which have been trading sideways for 6 months are ready to to move again. Big qtr by FB expected by some. And Googl, which didn't move as much as others is thought to benefit due to reopenings.


Just opinions of course.
TMDI up BIG today 50+%. Thanks for the call!
 

ScarletNut

All Conference
Jul 27, 2001
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My contribution to the the education of readers. BTW, we've heard from people who bought bitcoin at $4000.00. Waiting to hear from the first who bought at $40,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/bar...et-frenzy-feels-like-1999-dot-com-bubble.html
There are those individuals and institutions that have bought at 40k. Just like there were buyers in 2017 at 20k. Historically, there have been at least 7 dips of over 20% during its bull runs. This time there are institutions involved for the long term. When I hear people like the guy from Guggenheim talking about it going back to 20k, I get skeptical since they were one of the institutions that were "endorsing" bitcoin. Makes me think they're trying to scare owners to sell so they can get in cheaper. Just my opinion, but large firms and market makers are known to manipulate the direction of stocks legally (though not ethically). Volatility is a feature one has to accept if they want to be involved in crypto.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
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There are those individuals and institutions that have bought at 40k. Just like there were buyers in 2017 at 20k. Historically, there have been at least 7 dips of over 20% during its bull runs. This time there are institutions involved for the long term. When I hear people like the guy from Guggenheim talking about it going back to 20k, I get skeptical since they were one of the institutions that were "endorsing" bitcoin. Makes me think they're trying to scare owners to sell so they can get in cheaper. Just my opinion, but large firms and market makers are known to manipulate the direction of stocks legally (though not ethically). Volatility is a feature one has to accept if they want to be involved in crypto.
And plenty of volatility intraday as well. This is something you can take advantage of. I have been trying to buy small amounts of ETHE and GBTC each day by setting an order with a price limit of 1 or 2 dollars below opening. There seems to be regular dips in price that only last 15-30 mins each day. Most days this strategy is successful. :)
 

bob-loblaw

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Jan 24, 2011
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How far do you see BTC going down before the next pop? Below 30k?
This morning has been your dip. Went down to about 31000. Im sure there will be a dip into the 20's. I think it'll be quick though. Even if it does dip to 28 and hold there, I really dont care. Going back about 30 days, myself and everyone in the community was going nuts when we finally cleared 20k.

This time there are institutions involved for the long term. When I hear people like the guy from Guggenheim talking about it going back to 20k, I get skeptical since they were one of the institutions that were "endorsing" bitcoin. Makes me think they're trying to scare owners to sell so they can get in cheaper. Just my opinion, but large firms and market makers are known to manipulate the direction of stocks legally (though not ethically). Volatility is a feature one has to accept if they want to be involved in crypto.
What I bolded and underlined is my thought exactly. This morning, blackrock announced it was getting into BTC, but yet it came down 4k.

This is a long term play, and anyone with weak hands should not get into BTC. I will say though, the current dip is a solid entry point long term. I picked up another $500 worth this am. I've purchased anywhere from $4,900 up to $39,920. I believe it's 250-500k+ a coin by the end of the decade.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
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This morning has been your dip. Went down to about 31000. Im sure there will be a dip into the 20's. I think it'll be quick though. Even if it does dip to 28 and hold there, I really dont care. Going back about 30 days, myself and everyone in the community was going nuts when we finally cleared 20k.



What I bolded and underlined is my thought exactly. This morning, blackrock announced it was getting into BTC, but yet it came down 4k.

This is a long term play, and anyone with weak hands should not get into BTC. I will say though, the current dip is a solid entry point long term. I picked up another $500 worth this am. I've purchased anywhere from $4,900 up to $39,920. I believe it's 250-500k+ a coin by the end of the decade.
Your timeline is what I have in mind as well (for BTC and ETH). My daughter graduates HS in 2030, so this will be our party money! LOL.
 
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