OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

The momentum stocks which were then down big were up nicely today. RDDT up 15% for instance.

Plenty of green today. Nice change of pace.

 

[RUDead]

Headline of The Economist when Biden was President in October, The Envy of the World:

The envy of the world | Oct 19th 2024 | The Economist

The envy of the world. Special reports from The Economist. You've seen the news, now discover the story.

www.economist.com

Cover of the Economist this week:

View embedded media

That's because The Economist is a globalist publication. Of course they hate Trump.

The Biden economy was a mirage built on out of control, unsustainable deficit spending. Trump is trying to structurally change the way the economy functions. It's going to be a bumpy ride and there will be lots of winners and losers.

 

[Postman_1]

Added to my VOO position today. I've been DCAing into this every month for almost 2 years now.

 

[ashokan]

That's because The Economist is a globalist publication. Of course they hate Trump.

The Biden economy was a mirage built on out of control, unsustainable deficit spending. Trump is trying to structurally change the way the economy functions. It's going to be a bumpy ride and there will be lots of winners and losers.

This is almost funny because A LOT of people have been calling the market overvalued for a long time and were expecting the bubble to pop. Warren Buffett knew market was sketchy and didn't even go for the Nvidia hype. All the federal money creation/spending created a junkie market. Trump stuck with the hangover just like Carter left Reagan with a mess.

A reason for the tariffs is to shift source of income and reduce IRS gorilla with carrots and sticks. The non-profits being used as crypto government tentacles are targeted. That sector is toxic with a lot of money laundering and foreign influence going on.

That reminds me - before people feel sorry for Canada - Canada people told drug makers they wanted cheap prices or they wouldn't honor patents and would start manufacturing the drugs themselves. That's why Canadian drugs were cheaper and not because they had great system

Billionaire investor David Einhorn says Warren Buffett's recent stock sales show just how overvalued the market is

Warren Buffett's turn to cash indicates that now is not the best time for high equity exposure, David Einhorn says.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Train-wreck is an understatement. He clearly wants to create a dictatorship with all of the power concentrated in the executive branch and with the rule-of-law essentially suspended and his foreign policy is to turn our backs on decades-long allies in support of fellow autocrats; let's hope the courts continue to hold and that Congress comes to its senses and wrests control of spending back from the executive branch. And economically, he's hell bent on turning a fairly strong economy inherited from the previous administration (with some cracks in the foundation, however), which avoided a recession with a soft landing, into a complete mess with his ridiculous tariffs (especially on the best neighbor anyone could have, in Canada), his brutal and overdone cuts to the government, and his plans to plunder the social safety net (which most still believe in) to fund his tax cuts for the rich and ultra-rich (selfishly cuts help me, but I prefer to think about the country first).

The market is already significantly overvalued (based on P/E ratios vs. historical markets) and markets can also be greatly affected by political turmoil and chaos, which we're seeing in spades - doesn't take much to reach a tipping point in public confidence that exacerbates any downturn or recession, especially given the inverted bond yield curve rearing its head again recently, indicating a likely recession (not a given, but a strong indicator). We'll see of course, but I'd bet we'll see the Dow hit 35K before it ever hits 45K again. That'll hurt many, some badly (although not as badly as people who lose good jobs), but be an opportunity for others. For retired folks like me, with more than enough invested very safely (very heavy in AAA bonds, treasuries and some blue chips), such that preservation is all we care about, we'll weather a major downturn better than most, short of Armageddon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/26/fed...ssion-indicator-is-flashing-danger-again.html

Canada blinked on the tariff threats and will negotiate a new USMCA, illegal border crossings down 90%, bloated government getting a long long long overdue trimming, prospects for peace in Middle East and Ukraine rising, and even egg prices are down! DJIA closed at 41433 today, I'll take your bet on the DJIA.

 

[rurahrah000]

That doesn’t always work but yes that can be a tell. Candlestick patterns are another useful tool at times.

That is true. We didn’t get that capitulation day during the last correction.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Something to think about. From Tom Lee/FS Insights:

The 20-day 10% correction in S&P 500 is 5th fastest in past 75 years. 5 prior declines were similar "knee jerk" reactions that saw gains 100% time 3M, 6M and 12M later. Clear signs of "rage selling" normally lead to powerful reversals.

 

[rutgersdave]

Play 2:14 for Jeremy Siegel response. “ This makes no sense to me economically and no sense politically. We’re going to bring 100,000 manufacturing jobs back to the US. and tank the stock market by $20 trillion dollars in the mean time. You think the people in Florida, their accumulated wealth they done the last ten years are going to be all excited about saving a plant in Eric, Pa, for 300 jobs or 500 jobs. By the way, producing something they could have brought cheaper without the tariff beforehand.”