OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Trump can now sell his DJT stock, his stock is worth over $2 billion.
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I didn’t understand why anyone was buying today. If it was going to be good for the market, he wouldn’t wait until the market closes to announce
Yea, it was strange that the market was up . META, AMZN, and GOOG are now down 25% from ATH. Brought some META down 25% after hours. By earning season will be down 30%.
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I think the past 3 days have all been up? That's what happens when the market is so oversold.
The market is going to be crushed tomorrow. and for the foreseeable future. These tariffs are going to upend the economy. I’m sure there will be some winners - maybe tech continues to dominate. But it’s going to be fugly for a while. I don’t normally make bold economic projections and have been fairly optimistic that US and the world would enjoy growing prosperity. I only hope this is just a Trump bargaining position and he’ll return the country to a degree of economic normalcy after he feels like he’s won enough bargaining points.
Software and cyber should blow up and lead the way. No hardware and tariffs to worry about. Also META, AMZN, GOOGL. NVDA will be fine once Trump makes a deal with Taiwan. Remember, TSM is investing bigly in a US plant, so maybe an exemption?
If we have a 4-5% down day tomorrow, I will probably just buy across the board (starting with my custom stock basket).
No news on ALDX which is a bad sign. I am probably screwed on that one. LOL!
Likely ongoing negotiations. Mexico has been very measured and patient. Hopefully a good sign. Canada has yelled and screamed but it is really in both of our interests to settle this ASAP.
VIX is not all that spooked by this, will be interesting to see where tomorrow’s session ends up.
Still believe the end goal of tariffs is to onshore as much production and production inputs as possible before China makes a move on Taiwan in the 2027-2030 timeframe. The high tariffs on Taiwan would lend some credence to this as semiconductor production would be wiped out in the opening days of any strike campaign. Of course the administration can’t really come out and say this point-blank at the moment, but some really solid white papers have dropped recently from leading geopolitical think tanks and policy houses that pretty much say some type of action is a given before the end of the decade. The question becomes does China opt for a blockade and air strike campaign to force capitulation or escalate to an outright invasion.
Regardless, this will be a watershed moment in history when it happens. Pacific-based trade will grind to a halt, completely disrupting all aspects of the global supply chain that would make the height of COVID lockdowns look like an evening of bad gas. The global economic system will devolve into an every man for himself environment, hence tariffing everyone to get as much production/production inputs back domestically as possible before then. The more production/production inputs of critical infrastructure and goods that get on-shored before then, the better the outcome for the US economy.
Just my theory, the whole tariff strategy doesn’t make too much sense otherwise. There’s just no real point in blowing up the global economy for no reason unless it was to stave off something worse.
Still believe the end goal of tariffs is to onshore as much production and production inputs as possible before China makes a move on Taiwan in the 2027-2030 timeframe. The high tariffs on Taiwan would lend some credence to this as semiconductor production would be wiped out in the opening days of any strike campaign. Of course the administration can’t really come out and say this point-blank at the moment, but some really solid white papers have dropped recently from leading geopolitical think tanks and policy houses that pretty much say some type of action is a given before the end of the decade. The question becomes does China opt for a blockade and air strike campaign to force capitulation or escalate to an outright invasion.
Regardless, this will be a watershed moment in history when it happens. Pacific-based trade will grind to a halt, completely disrupting all aspects of the global supply chain that would make the height of COVID lockdowns look like an evening of bad gas. The global economic system will devolve into an every man for himself environment, hence tariffing everyone to get as much production/production inputs back domestically as possible before then. The more production/production inputs of critical infrastructure and goods that get on-shored before then, the better the outcome for the US economy.
Just my theory, the whole tariff strategy doesn’t make too much sense otherwise. There’s just no real point in blowing up the global economy for no reason unless it was to stave off something worse.
In case anyone was wondering if the numbers in the blue column are real tariffs, they aren't. Big surprise.
Not sure about that. China's trade deficit is like 300%. Imports to exports = $500B vs. $150B.
Senate Republicans buck Trump, join Dems in rejecting Canada tariffs
GOP lawmakers rejected a pressure campaign from the Trump administration to adhere to party loyalty on "Liberation Day."
www.yahoo.com
Look for upcoming lawsuits on the tariffs. Congress may be required for some of this.Senate Republicans buck Trump, join Dems in rejecting Canada tariffs
GOP lawmakers rejected a pressure campaign from the Trump administration to adhere to party loyalty on "Liberation Day."www.yahoo.com
That makes no sense in anyway. That's not even a reflection of the trade deficit (which is 3.06x).
How exactly does Trump expect all these manufacturing industries to be moved to USA? We do not have the workforce to massively expand manufacturing and he won’t allow any immigration except his golden visa scheme. I guess the plan is to crush exports and move those resources to manufacture TVs and t shirts
Looks like how Trump calculate it. It has nothing to do with tariffs and everything to do with deficit. A country can have no tariffs but still have a deficit.
A lot of countries around China have been alternatives for manufacturing…apparel textiles etc…
NKE will be hurt as I’ve mentioned above and there was a question about DECK, they won’t be immune either.
From the article:
Trump said he will put a 46% duty on imports from Vietnam as part of a new wave of global levies announced Wednesday. That could soon raise costs for major corporations in the apparel, furniture and toy space, and some of them may pass those increases to consumers in the form of price hikes. The tariffs on Vietnam take effect on April 9.
Vietnam was the second largest countryfor suppliers of Ugg and Hoka parent company Deckers Brands as of this month. The company has 68 supply chain partners in Vietnam, which is surpassed only by its 125 suppliers in China. Deckers shares dropped nearly 9% in extended trading. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
NKE will be hurt as I’ve mentioned above and there was a question about DECK, they won’t be immune either.
From the article:
Trump said he will put a 46% duty on imports from Vietnam as part of a new wave of global levies announced Wednesday. That could soon raise costs for major corporations in the apparel, furniture and toy space, and some of them may pass those increases to consumers in the form of price hikes. The tariffs on Vietnam take effect on April 9.
Vietnam was the second largest countryfor suppliers of Ugg and Hoka parent company Deckers Brands as of this month. The company has 68 supply chain partners in Vietnam, which is surpassed only by its 125 suppliers in China. Deckers shares dropped nearly 9% in extended trading. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Agreed. Dumb as dogshit. And it's not even how people (including Trump team members) have talked about trade deficits on CNBC and other outlets.
One other thing to consider. It's not only about absolute value of exports vs. imports. You need to take into account population. Trade with Mexico is about $500B imports vs. $330B exports. So we buy more from them. However, when you consider Mexico has 1/3 the population, they buy WAY more per capita from the US than we buy from them. This dynamic is even more pronounced with Canada.
Total opposite with China.
And yet that's exactly the depth of the analysis that mango the moron did to determine the level of tariffs against each county. But please, tell us more about how these tariffs are fair.
I doubt much will get approved by the current FDA.
Senate Republicans buck Trump, join Dems in rejecting Canada tariffs
GOP lawmakers rejected a pressure campaign from the Trump administration to adhere to party loyalty on "Liberation Day."www.yahoo.com
Heartened to see some Senate Republicans stand up to tariffs. I would imagine a few GOP House members will as well. Will not get to levels needed to override a veto, but still good to see.
Putin revenge on the Western world. Half the boomers won’t be able to retire now and retirement will disappear from our vocabulary.
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That's a big part of it. The "go-to" guy on Trump's tariff plans is Robert Lighthizer (who the Chinese dread) and he specifies the need to stop ankle grabbing for China and the institutions they rig (Trump dumped WHO and just canceled dues to WTO and word is UN is next). China's success has been built on US foolishness and corruption. US corps will give-up all kids of secrets when pushed. BlackRock was told to push ESG and DEI in US boardrooms if they wanted to do business in China. Its all intended to cripple US and US gets clubbed like baby seal.
Robert Lighthizer: "China to me is an existential threat to the United States. It is-- a very, very competent adversary. China views itself as number one in the world and wants to be that way. They view us as in the way. They have the biggest army in the world and they're growing it, the biggest navy in the world, and they're growing it. They're spying on us, they are taking our technology, they've been waging an economic war against the United States and winning that war for at least the last three decades.. I believe in strategic decoupling. I'm not saying no economic relationship with China. That's not my position at all. I think you want balanced trade. "
Xi is in a panic - he never forgot how USSR was a major power and then Reagan kicked the stilts out from under them. XI is in the same place with the real estate crisis around the weird, "ghost cities" falling apart (called tofu construction - their submarines are crap too and leak and crews are scared to dive). Trump exposed the game in Panama and the massive auto plants intended for Mexico are scotched.
The tariff drams is kind of funny since we did it all in 2017 when Krugman was saying the economy would be wrecked and just the opposite happened.
Article has clues about the multifaceted approach to tariffs - its not all charts and numbers.
Trump's former trade chief says China is a threat, tariffs are necessary
Trump's former trade chief says China is a threat, tariffs are necessary
Economists say tariffs can increase prices for consumers, but Robert Lighthizer, President Trump's former trade chief, argues they're necessary.
www.cbsnews.com
Did you read article about US/UK/CIA running the Ukraine war from Germany? US basically went to war with Russia and lost. Ukraine just provided the fodder (which is exactly how DC viewed lives in Ukraine). Now France and other wee neds in Europe want to send uniformed troops to Ukraine (while Macron lawfares leading political opponent to jail). Europe is deranged. and the Ukraine thing is off the hook. Putin is actually the rational one.
Key Takeaways From America’s Secret Military Partnership With Ukraine
An investigation by The New York Times has revealed that America was woven into the war far more than previously known.
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That was already a problem with the CHIPS Act. TSMC couldn't find the workers in AZ and wanted to bring workers from Taiwan. They eventually went to Japan. But with people (males mostly) in US dropping the college farce to learn trades I think there could be a rearranging of labor and its a perfect time for it. It takes years to build fabs and in meantime there could be a WPA type thing to retrain people away from jobs as baristas and gig workers.
If people get real jobs and real pay we wont have to worry about tariffs making the $5 Walmart t-shirts for broke people on Medicaid going to $10.
Do you realize how many people it would take to make all the cheap consumer goods that we import from China and Southeast Asia? Do we really want those jobs back here? iPhones maybe….cheap Walmart crap why???
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