OT- Sunday Evening Severe Weather-
- Thread starter Knight Shift
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Yep, it just hit us about 3-4 minutes ago. Down pour, thunder, etc.
Edit: and it got incredibly dark.
Edit: and it got incredibly dark.
NOT. 5 min of rain in Hillsborough. They cancelled the Somerville Street fair today because it was so nasty out LOL. Went down about 3pm and nothing there.
How many events have been cancelled in the past month because of impending doom that has never happened?
How many events have been cancelled in the past month because of impending doom that has never happened?
Somerville must be soft. The Jersey Gay Pride Parade went off today without an issue.
Every year. Nothing stops the celebration in Asbury Park.
Wind and rain rolled through Rumson/Sea Bright Thankfully, we did not get hit with a plethora of fire calls. Pretty mild stuff.
It was not a dud. I've never driven in worse weather in my entire life. It was just a sheet of water.
Why does that bother you?
It's a weather thread, the gist of which, you post your location and the weather.
Actually, my post said rolled through "Rumson/Sea Bright," and it did not say where I lived. Sea Bright is a notable area for severe weather. It's where a lot of news trucks congregate for big storms.
Carry on with your pettiness. . . . .
Drove through some brief, but very heavy showers on I-26 heading from Charleston to Columbia, around 3-4 pm; then 77N to Charlotte was almost rain-free. Got to Charlotte around 6 pm, hung out with mom for a few hours and am now in CLT, hoping my 10:15 pm flight to EWR isn't delayed (on time as of now). Very happy to see all the watches/warnings up and down the east coast dropped, as the front is essentially through - don't love flying and really don't love flying in t-storms.
You should be good. Seems it all moved north and east pretty quickly. Safe travels.
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Just got done grilling outside - real wet, but no rain.
Just in case I forgot to mention it, I live in Wayne.
We got heavy winds and sheets of rain for about 15 min. here in Howell. Wind was so strong I thought some of my younger trees in the fruit orchard were going to be destroyed. Alas everything was OK the stakes held on the younger trees, older trees were just fine, lost quite a bit of fruit though.
once again mets way overhyped something and busted causing many cancellations. In my experience the times we get severe is when they are sort of not expecting it, then they end up overcompensating the next event. In this event they saw the signals like 5 days in advance which is usually the kiss of death. 2016 and still I dont think mets do a good job for the job they are supposed to do
Saturday evening outdoors at Governor's Ball (Randalls Island, NYC) was more ridiculous. Sun and clouds all day, then starting at around 7:15 p.m. there were two separate half hours of monsoon rain that the weather forecasts had failed to mention. It was still worth dealing with to see the Killers headline, though.
Yesterday, the organizers played it safe and cancelled the day's concert due to severe weather forecast.
Yesterday, the organizers played it safe and cancelled the day's concert due to severe weather forecast.
Braggart. Not everyone here has the connections to get invited to the Governor's Ball. o_O
Just got done grilling outside - real wet, but no rain.
Just in case I forgot to mention it, I live in Wayne.
I've been to Wayne. Not that impressed, boss.
Never really noticed.
But there is another guy who does something similar IMO which is more annoying.
If you truly understood how extraordinarily difficult it is to forecast complex chaotic systems like the weather, you'd never make that statement. While you usually bring a lot of relevant weather information to the board, your regular criticism of meteorology and meteorologists betrays a lack of understanding of the fundamental interdisciplinary sciences involved, the computational limitations that exist when there is far from perfect input of critical initial and boundary conditions, and possibly the most important limitation of meteorology, which may never be addressed, i.e., that weather is chaotic, by nature, meaning that minor perturbations in these initial and boundary conditions (and we have both perturbations and huge existing holes in the global data grid) will eventually lead to huge uncertainties in the forecasts days in the future (and sometimes hours in the future for mesoscale, high energy events like yesterday). This chaotic behavior arises directly from the non-linearity of the Navier-Stokes equations for fluid flow.
In other words, this is hard shit to do well and it's a testament to the meteorological community that our 5-day forecasts, today, are as accurate as our 3-day forecasts from 25 years ago. But for systems like yesterday's, which was a convective, instability driven summer-time shower complex (which has ~10x the energy of a winter nor'easter, making the predictions even more difficult), predicting mesoscale outcomes correctly for precip location, intensity, and duration is simply impossible and will likely remain so, perhaps forever. Chaos and uncertainty are also why no reputable sources offer detailed forecasts beyond 7-8 days. You can continue to complain about these things or accept that there will continue to be uncertainties and errors in such forecasts.
here is my problem...it was theirs and the media hype thats the problem. Mets should know full well of the high bust potential but instead err too much on the side of caution. I mean I was watching mets hype the event at 6PM when it basically was just starting in my area and you can tell by radar this was in and out in less than 20 minutes. They hyped it for 5 days and you know what hype leads to...unnecessary cancellations.
what I dont like is I feel that mets dont take well to criticism and some like you defend them to the hilt..its their job, if they fail they need to own up to it or dont act like they are such experts. There are days when they literally call for sunny and its cloudy. Most severe events I have seen seem to be more surprise events that catch everyone off guard
what I dont like is I feel that mets dont take well to criticism and some like you defend them to the hilt..its their job, if they fail they need to own up to it or dont act like they are such experts. There are days when they literally call for sunny and its cloudy. Most severe events I have seen seem to be more surprise events that catch everyone off guard
Today storms are prime example of the non hyped events overperforming...copius widespread rains and lightningbtoday compared to Sundays dud advertised for 5 days as Armageddon
Wrong and right. Far heavier rains, statewide, with Sunday's event, but today's event well exceeded expectations with regard to winds and wind damage, as per the NWS discussion they just posted. This is exactly the kind of mesoscale event I was talking about above, which may never be able to be forecasted well, due to localized energy/momentum effects coupled with chaos/uncertainty.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM Update...The round of showers and low-topped thunderstorms
that resulted in numerous reports of 50-65 mph wind gusts, tree
damage and power outages across SE PA, S/C NJ and the northern
Delmarva between 11 AM and 1 PM is now moving off the coast.
Looking back at the forecast, these storms packed a slightly more
powerful punch than what was originally anticipated, which at
first glance appears to be tied to the models significantly
underdoing the strength of the northwesterly jet at the top of the
boundary layer (near 850 mb). Winds estimated off KDIX VWP and
from the 0-2 hr HRRR forecast were 45-55 kt while earlier NWP
guidance predicted peak winds at the top of the boundary layer to
be around 35 kt. Despite weak instability, these winds aloft were
able to convectively mixed down to the surface with a pseudo
inverted V sounding below the LCL.
SPS was also issued for the southern two-thirds of the CWA for
gradient wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph behind the showers thru mid
afternoon.
I get county alerts for weather events through our local Fire Department (will not reveal the location :eek:). I got no less than 4 alerts prior to Sunday, giving me the feeling that we should batten down the hatches and prepare for imminent disaster. What a whiff.
Just got a county alert 30-40 minutes ago about this storm. Another whiff.
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