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Player Ratings (or, decomposing our Kenpom rating)

Post Indiana. Ace into 2nd place.

PlayerTotal Adjusted NET ContributionMinutes PlayedEst Possessions Played% of team totalAdj NET per 20 possessionsAdj NET per 40 minutesEst Contribution to Kenpom Rating
Dylan Harper
156.34​
444​
157.60​
15.68%​
19.84​
14.08​
15.56​
Ace Bailey
26.14​
407​
146.28​
14.55%​
3.57​
2.57​
2.60​
Lathan Sommerville
-0.22​
274​
97.06​
9.66%​
-0.05​
-0.03​
-0.02​
Jeremiah Williams
-1.74​
327​
115.87​
11.53%​
-0.30​
-0.21​
-0.17​
PJ Hayes
-2.20​
186​
65.99​
6.57%​
-0.67​
-0.47​
-0.22​
Jordan Derkack
-3.82​
332​
117.61​
11.70%​
-0.65​
-0.46​
-0.38​
Tyson Acuff
-8.37​
173​
61.29​
6.10%​
-2.73​
-1.94​
-0.83​
Dylan Grant
-10.55​
20​
7.42​
0.74%​
-28.45​
-21.10​
-1.05​
Emmanuel Ogbole
-12.07​
193​
69.46​
6.91%​
-3.48​
-2.50​
-1.20​
Zach Martini
-16.84​
227​
80.51​
8.01%​
-4.18​
-2.97​
-1.68​
Jamichael Davis
-20.36​
243​
86.43​
8.60%​
-4.71​
-3.35​
-2.03​
Residual
-0.37​
Total
10.21​
 
Post Indiana. Ace into 2nd place.

PlayerTotal Adjusted NET ContributionMinutes PlayedEst Possessions Played% of team totalAdj NET per 20 possessionsAdj NET per 40 minutesEst Contribution to Kenpom Rating
Dylan Harper
156.34​
444​
157.60​
15.68%​
19.84​
14.08​
15.56​
Ace Bailey
26.14​
407​
146.28​
14.55%​
3.57​
2.57​
2.60​
Lathan Sommerville
-0.22​
274​
97.06​
9.66%​
-0.05​
-0.03​
-0.02​
Jeremiah Williams
-1.74​
327​
115.87​
11.53%​
-0.30​
-0.21​
-0.17​
PJ Hayes
-2.20​
186​
65.99​
6.57%​
-0.67​
-0.47​
-0.22​
Jordan Derkack
-3.82​
332​
117.61​
11.70%​
-0.65​
-0.46​
-0.38​
Tyson Acuff
-8.37​
173​
61.29​
6.10%​
-2.73​
-1.94​
-0.83​
Dylan Grant
-10.55​
20​
7.42​
0.74%​
-28.45​
-21.10​
-1.05​
Emmanuel Ogbole
-12.07​
193​
69.46​
6.91%​
-3.48​
-2.50​
-1.20​
Zach Martini
-16.84​
227​
80.51​
8.01%​
-4.18​
-2.97​
-1.68​
Jamichael Davis
-20.36​
243​
86.43​
8.60%​
-4.71​
-3.35​
-2.03​
Residual
-0.37​
Total
10.21​

Still overvaluing PJ. Lathan is an interesting case because his poor position in nowhere near the rim in terms of crashing the glass results in so many easy put backs that are probably not factored directly into his defensive numbers. The rebounding issues are not entirely on him but the wide open offensive boards when he’s in the game are a definite problem. He is efficient on offense though.
 
Post Indiana. Ace into 2nd place.

PlayerTotal Adjusted NET ContributionMinutes PlayedEst Possessions Played% of team totalAdj NET per 20 possessionsAdj NET per 40 minutesEst Contribution to Kenpom Rating
Dylan Harper
156.34​
444​
157.60​
15.68%​
19.84​
14.08​
15.56​
Ace Bailey
26.14​
407​
146.28​
14.55%​
3.57​
2.57​
2.60​
Lathan Sommerville
-0.22​
274​
97.06​
9.66%​
-0.05​
-0.03​
-0.02​
Jeremiah Williams
-1.74​
327​
115.87​
11.53%​
-0.30​
-0.21​
-0.17​
PJ Hayes
-2.20​
186​
65.99​
6.57%​
-0.67​
-0.47​
-0.22​
Jordan Derkack
-3.82​
332​
117.61​
11.70%​
-0.65​
-0.46​
-0.38​
Tyson Acuff
-8.37​
173​
61.29​
6.10%​
-2.73​
-1.94​
-0.83​
Dylan Grant
-10.55​
20​
7.42​
0.74%​
-28.45​
-21.10​
-1.05​
Emmanuel Ogbole
-12.07​
193​
69.46​
6.91%​
-3.48​
-2.50​
-1.20​
Zach Martini
-16.84​
227​
80.51​
8.01%​
-4.18​
-2.97​
-1.68​
Jamichael Davis
-20.36​
243​
86.43​
8.60%​
-4.71​
-3.35​
-2.03​
Residual
-0.37​
Total
10.21​
Feels about right.
 
Still overvaluing PJ. Lathan is an interesting case because his poor position in nowhere near the rim in terms of crashing the glass results in so many easy put backs that are probably not factored directly into his defensive numbers. The rebounding issues are not entirely on him but the wide open offensive boards when he’s in the game are a definite problem. He is efficient on offense though.
Pj was good against cupcakes
 
Adj ImpactMinutes PctPer 40Rating Impact
D. Harper
151.7​
75%​
12.5​
9.41​
A. Bailey
31.0​
72%​
2.7​
1.92​
J. Derkack
-17.9​
57%​
-2.0​
-1.11​
J. Williams
-10.0​
56%​
-1.1​
-0.62​
L. Sommerville
0.6​
48%​
0.1​
0.03​
J. Davis
-31.4​
45%​
-4.3​
-1.95​
Z. Martini
-20.2​
36%​
-3.4​
-1.25​
T. Acuff
9.8​
35%​
1.7​
0.61​
E. Ogbole
-14.5​
35%​
-2.6​
-0.90​
P. Hayes
-8.0​
31%​
-1.6​
-0.49​
D. Grant
6.7​
8%​
5.3​
0.42​
P. Noble
1.9​
0%​
38.4​
0.12​
M. Fradkin
0.1​
0%​
2.3​
0.01​
Residual
0.03​
6.22​

Rating is SRS now and is per 40 minutes. It is relative to an average D1 player.
 
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Adj ImpactMinutes PctPer 40Rating Impact
D. Harper
151.7​
75%​
12.5​
9.41​
A. Bailey
31.0​
72%​
2.7​
1.92​
J. Derkack
-17.9​
57%​
-2.0​
-1.11​
J. Williams
-10.0​
56%​
-1.1​
-0.62​
L. Sommerville
0.6​
48%​
0.1​
0.03​
J. Davis
-31.4​
45%​
-4.3​
-1.95​
Z. Martini
-20.2​
36%​
-3.4​
-1.25​
T. Acuff
9.8​
35%​
1.7​
0.61​
E. Ogbole
-14.5​
35%​
-2.6​
-0.90​
P. Hayes
-8.0​
31%​
-1.6​
-0.49​
D. Grant
6.7​
8%​
5.3​
0.42​
P. Noble
1.9​
0%​
38.4​
0.12​
M. Fradkin
0.1​
0%​
2.3​
0.01​
Residual
0.03​
6.22​

Rating is SRS now and is per 40 minutes. It is relative to an average D1 player.
It’s amazing all the stats out there that can be leveraged across our coaching staff, which I am 100% positive they are using and it’s not clear to them who should be playing.
You can just look at this as an average fan and clearly see who should be starting for this team:
Dylan
Ace
Lathan
Acuff
Grant

While Grant and Acuff have small sample sizes you get different elements to our game that have been sorely lacking. Grant actually have a very good presence for the ball around the rim and helps us in rebounding and a rim presence on defense(still extremely raw from a visual perspective)
Acuff actually is much more composed than any of the benchwarmers we have. Limits turnovers, looking for assists, and can create his own shot/hit a shot. Has lapses on defense but lets put that to bed as our entire team does.

First person off the bench for me is Jwill. He does bring energy to the game but is erratic and not composed. Bring him in for a spark potentially maybe creating a steal or an offensive play. He can give a breather to anyone not named Lathan.

Bring in EO for to spell Lathan and that’s just similar when we give Ace/Dylan breaks..quick and fast but do not make it time bound(Pike issue that lingers). Lathan barely wastes a lot of energy out there as it is with his matador defense and lack of touches on offense.
An alternative could be sliding Grant to the 5(I know I’ll get killed on this)
If we needed to go to a smaller lineup and bring in someone like Hayes for 3s.

Davis and Dercack are game situation reserves. Situational based on matchups, defensive decisions, etc. both have their moments where we go “ok” they aren’t killing us but that is about 10% of the time—the other 90% is a shake your head moment so again you limit them.

Tell this team it’s really a 7-8 player rotation going forward that will dominate the time and shot selection and ball movement are a premium on offense.

On defense where I have been advocating for zone to protect the rim, I can see this team has a low IQ so rotations are terrible and playing out of place. I’m also weary of man to man on PnR because our 5 is always out of position. Time we have to mix it up throughout the game to see what’s working properly at the moment. Man to man seems to be our best(gulp) but again low IQ doesn’t have defenders on helpside or stopping the ball.

All starts with the right personnel and we have seen disaster lineups, subs and all so far. This is where we need coaches to step up. Otherwise just flush it and hope we get the number 1 pick next year(oh wait!)—this isn’t the NBA yet we may already have that player on our team
 
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It’s amazing all the stats out there that can be leveraged across our coaching staff, which I am 100% positive they are using and it’s not clear to them who should be playing.
You can just look at this as an average fan and clearly see who should be starting for this team:
Dylan
Ace
Lathan
Acuff
Grant

While Grant and Acuff have small sample sizes you get different elements to our game that have been sorely lacking. Grant actually have a very good presence for the ball around the rim and helps us in rebounding and a rim presence on defense(still extremely raw from a visual perspective)
Acuff actually is much more composed than any of the benchwarmers we have. Limits turnovers, looking for assists, and can create his own shot/hit a shot. Has lapses on defense but lets put that to bed as our entire team does.

First person off the bench for me is Jwill. He does bring energy to the game but is erratic and not composed. Bring him in for a spark potentially maybe creating a steal or an offensive play. He can give a breather to anyone not named Lathan.

Bring in EO for to spell Lathan and that’s just similar when we give Ace/Dylan breaks..quick and fast but do not make it time bound(Pike issue that lingers). Lathan barely wastes a lot of energy out there as it is with his matador defense and lack of touches on offense.
An alternative could be sliding Grant to the 5(I know I’ll get killed on this)
If we needed to go to a smaller lineup and bring in someone like Hayes for 3s.

Davis and Dercack are game situation reserves. Situational based on matchups, defensive decisions, etc. both have their moments where we go “ok” they aren’t killing us but that is about 10% of the time—the other 90% is a shake your head moment so again you limit them.

Tell this team it’s really a 7-8 player rotation going forward that will dominate the time and shot selection and ball movement are a premium on offense.

On defense where I have been advocating for zone to protect the rim, I can see this team has a low IQ so rotations are terrible and playing out of place. I’m also weary of man to man on PnR because our 5 is always out of position. Time we have to mix it up throughout the game to see what’s working properly at the moment. Man to man seems to be our best(gulp) but again low IQ doesn’t have defenders on helpside or stopping the ball.

All starts with the right personnel and we have seen disaster lineups, subs and all so far. This is where we need coaches to step up. Otherwise just flush it and hope we get the number 1 pick next year(oh wait!)—this isn’t the NBA yet we may already have that player on our team
Excellent. Totally agree with everything above. Pike has also played Ace at the 5, which is another option. Your starters should be able to cut down on the turnovers and make some foul shots at least.
 
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