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Player Ratings (or, decomposing our Kenpom rating)

Post Indiana. Ace into 2nd place.

PlayerTotal Adjusted NET ContributionMinutes PlayedEst Possessions Played% of team totalAdj NET per 20 possessionsAdj NET per 40 minutesEst Contribution to Kenpom Rating
Dylan Harper
156.34​
444​
157.60​
15.68%​
19.84​
14.08​
15.56​
Ace Bailey
26.14​
407​
146.28​
14.55%​
3.57​
2.57​
2.60​
Lathan Sommerville
-0.22​
274​
97.06​
9.66%​
-0.05​
-0.03​
-0.02​
Jeremiah Williams
-1.74​
327​
115.87​
11.53%​
-0.30​
-0.21​
-0.17​
PJ Hayes
-2.20​
186​
65.99​
6.57%​
-0.67​
-0.47​
-0.22​
Jordan Derkack
-3.82​
332​
117.61​
11.70%​
-0.65​
-0.46​
-0.38​
Tyson Acuff
-8.37​
173​
61.29​
6.10%​
-2.73​
-1.94​
-0.83​
Dylan Grant
-10.55​
20​
7.42​
0.74%​
-28.45​
-21.10​
-1.05​
Emmanuel Ogbole
-12.07​
193​
69.46​
6.91%​
-3.48​
-2.50​
-1.20​
Zach Martini
-16.84​
227​
80.51​
8.01%​
-4.18​
-2.97​
-1.68​
Jamichael Davis
-20.36​
243​
86.43​
8.60%​
-4.71​
-3.35​
-2.03​
Residual
-0.37​
Total
10.21​
 
Post Indiana. Ace into 2nd place.

PlayerTotal Adjusted NET ContributionMinutes PlayedEst Possessions Played% of team totalAdj NET per 20 possessionsAdj NET per 40 minutesEst Contribution to Kenpom Rating
Dylan Harper
156.34​
444​
157.60​
15.68%​
19.84​
14.08​
15.56​
Ace Bailey
26.14​
407​
146.28​
14.55%​
3.57​
2.57​
2.60​
Lathan Sommerville
-0.22​
274​
97.06​
9.66%​
-0.05​
-0.03​
-0.02​
Jeremiah Williams
-1.74​
327​
115.87​
11.53%​
-0.30​
-0.21​
-0.17​
PJ Hayes
-2.20​
186​
65.99​
6.57%​
-0.67​
-0.47​
-0.22​
Jordan Derkack
-3.82​
332​
117.61​
11.70%​
-0.65​
-0.46​
-0.38​
Tyson Acuff
-8.37​
173​
61.29​
6.10%​
-2.73​
-1.94​
-0.83​
Dylan Grant
-10.55​
20​
7.42​
0.74%​
-28.45​
-21.10​
-1.05​
Emmanuel Ogbole
-12.07​
193​
69.46​
6.91%​
-3.48​
-2.50​
-1.20​
Zach Martini
-16.84​
227​
80.51​
8.01%​
-4.18​
-2.97​
-1.68​
Jamichael Davis
-20.36​
243​
86.43​
8.60%​
-4.71​
-3.35​
-2.03​
Residual
-0.37​
Total
10.21​

Still overvaluing PJ. Lathan is an interesting case because his poor position in nowhere near the rim in terms of crashing the glass results in so many easy put backs that are probably not factored directly into his defensive numbers. The rebounding issues are not entirely on him but the wide open offensive boards when he’s in the game are a definite problem. He is efficient on offense though.
 
Post Indiana. Ace into 2nd place.

PlayerTotal Adjusted NET ContributionMinutes PlayedEst Possessions Played% of team totalAdj NET per 20 possessionsAdj NET per 40 minutesEst Contribution to Kenpom Rating
Dylan Harper
156.34​
444​
157.60​
15.68%​
19.84​
14.08​
15.56​
Ace Bailey
26.14​
407​
146.28​
14.55%​
3.57​
2.57​
2.60​
Lathan Sommerville
-0.22​
274​
97.06​
9.66%​
-0.05​
-0.03​
-0.02​
Jeremiah Williams
-1.74​
327​
115.87​
11.53%​
-0.30​
-0.21​
-0.17​
PJ Hayes
-2.20​
186​
65.99​
6.57%​
-0.67​
-0.47​
-0.22​
Jordan Derkack
-3.82​
332​
117.61​
11.70%​
-0.65​
-0.46​
-0.38​
Tyson Acuff
-8.37​
173​
61.29​
6.10%​
-2.73​
-1.94​
-0.83​
Dylan Grant
-10.55​
20​
7.42​
0.74%​
-28.45​
-21.10​
-1.05​
Emmanuel Ogbole
-12.07​
193​
69.46​
6.91%​
-3.48​
-2.50​
-1.20​
Zach Martini
-16.84​
227​
80.51​
8.01%​
-4.18​
-2.97​
-1.68​
Jamichael Davis
-20.36​
243​
86.43​
8.60%​
-4.71​
-3.35​
-2.03​
Residual
-0.37​
Total
10.21​
Feels about right.
 
Still overvaluing PJ. Lathan is an interesting case because his poor position in nowhere near the rim in terms of crashing the glass results in so many easy put backs that are probably not factored directly into his defensive numbers. The rebounding issues are not entirely on him but the wide open offensive boards when he’s in the game are a definite problem. He is efficient on offense though.
Pj was good against cupcakes
 
Adj ImpactMinutes PctPer 40Rating Impact
D. Harper
151.7​
75%​
12.5​
9.41​
A. Bailey
31.0​
72%​
2.7​
1.92​
J. Derkack
-17.9​
57%​
-2.0​
-1.11​
J. Williams
-10.0​
56%​
-1.1​
-0.62​
L. Sommerville
0.6​
48%​
0.1​
0.03​
J. Davis
-31.4​
45%​
-4.3​
-1.95​
Z. Martini
-20.2​
36%​
-3.4​
-1.25​
T. Acuff
9.8​
35%​
1.7​
0.61​
E. Ogbole
-14.5​
35%​
-2.6​
-0.90​
P. Hayes
-8.0​
31%​
-1.6​
-0.49​
D. Grant
6.7​
8%​
5.3​
0.42​
P. Noble
1.9​
0%​
38.4​
0.12​
M. Fradkin
0.1​
0%​
2.3​
0.01​
Residual
0.03​
6.22​

Rating is SRS now and is per 40 minutes. It is relative to an average D1 player.
 
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Adj ImpactMinutes PctPer 40Rating Impact
D. Harper
151.7​
75%​
12.5​
9.41​
A. Bailey
31.0​
72%​
2.7​
1.92​
J. Derkack
-17.9​
57%​
-2.0​
-1.11​
J. Williams
-10.0​
56%​
-1.1​
-0.62​
L. Sommerville
0.6​
48%​
0.1​
0.03​
J. Davis
-31.4​
45%​
-4.3​
-1.95​
Z. Martini
-20.2​
36%​
-3.4​
-1.25​
T. Acuff
9.8​
35%​
1.7​
0.61​
E. Ogbole
-14.5​
35%​
-2.6​
-0.90​
P. Hayes
-8.0​
31%​
-1.6​
-0.49​
D. Grant
6.7​
8%​
5.3​
0.42​
P. Noble
1.9​
0%​
38.4​
0.12​
M. Fradkin
0.1​
0%​
2.3​
0.01​
Residual
0.03​
6.22​

Rating is SRS now and is per 40 minutes. It is relative to an average D1 player.
It’s amazing all the stats out there that can be leveraged across our coaching staff, which I am 100% positive they are using and it’s not clear to them who should be playing.
You can just look at this as an average fan and clearly see who should be starting for this team:
Dylan
Ace
Lathan
Acuff
Grant

While Grant and Acuff have small sample sizes you get different elements to our game that have been sorely lacking. Grant actually have a very good presence for the ball around the rim and helps us in rebounding and a rim presence on defense(still extremely raw from a visual perspective)
Acuff actually is much more composed than any of the benchwarmers we have. Limits turnovers, looking for assists, and can create his own shot/hit a shot. Has lapses on defense but lets put that to bed as our entire team does.

First person off the bench for me is Jwill. He does bring energy to the game but is erratic and not composed. Bring him in for a spark potentially maybe creating a steal or an offensive play. He can give a breather to anyone not named Lathan.

Bring in EO for to spell Lathan and that’s just similar when we give Ace/Dylan breaks..quick and fast but do not make it time bound(Pike issue that lingers). Lathan barely wastes a lot of energy out there as it is with his matador defense and lack of touches on offense.
An alternative could be sliding Grant to the 5(I know I’ll get killed on this)
If we needed to go to a smaller lineup and bring in someone like Hayes for 3s.

Davis and Dercack are game situation reserves. Situational based on matchups, defensive decisions, etc. both have their moments where we go “ok” they aren’t killing us but that is about 10% of the time—the other 90% is a shake your head moment so again you limit them.

Tell this team it’s really a 7-8 player rotation going forward that will dominate the time and shot selection and ball movement are a premium on offense.

On defense where I have been advocating for zone to protect the rim, I can see this team has a low IQ so rotations are terrible and playing out of place. I’m also weary of man to man on PnR because our 5 is always out of position. Time we have to mix it up throughout the game to see what’s working properly at the moment. Man to man seems to be our best(gulp) but again low IQ doesn’t have defenders on helpside or stopping the ball.

All starts with the right personnel and we have seen disaster lineups, subs and all so far. This is where we need coaches to step up. Otherwise just flush it and hope we get the number 1 pick next year(oh wait!)—this isn’t the NBA yet we may already have that player on our team
 
It’s amazing all the stats out there that can be leveraged across our coaching staff, which I am 100% positive they are using and it’s not clear to them who should be playing.
You can just look at this as an average fan and clearly see who should be starting for this team:
Dylan
Ace
Lathan
Acuff
Grant

While Grant and Acuff have small sample sizes you get different elements to our game that have been sorely lacking. Grant actually have a very good presence for the ball around the rim and helps us in rebounding and a rim presence on defense(still extremely raw from a visual perspective)
Acuff actually is much more composed than any of the benchwarmers we have. Limits turnovers, looking for assists, and can create his own shot/hit a shot. Has lapses on defense but lets put that to bed as our entire team does.

First person off the bench for me is Jwill. He does bring energy to the game but is erratic and not composed. Bring him in for a spark potentially maybe creating a steal or an offensive play. He can give a breather to anyone not named Lathan.

Bring in EO for to spell Lathan and that’s just similar when we give Ace/Dylan breaks..quick and fast but do not make it time bound(Pike issue that lingers). Lathan barely wastes a lot of energy out there as it is with his matador defense and lack of touches on offense.
An alternative could be sliding Grant to the 5(I know I’ll get killed on this)
If we needed to go to a smaller lineup and bring in someone like Hayes for 3s.

Davis and Dercack are game situation reserves. Situational based on matchups, defensive decisions, etc. both have their moments where we go “ok” they aren’t killing us but that is about 10% of the time—the other 90% is a shake your head moment so again you limit them.

Tell this team it’s really a 7-8 player rotation going forward that will dominate the time and shot selection and ball movement are a premium on offense.

On defense where I have been advocating for zone to protect the rim, I can see this team has a low IQ so rotations are terrible and playing out of place. I’m also weary of man to man on PnR because our 5 is always out of position. Time we have to mix it up throughout the game to see what’s working properly at the moment. Man to man seems to be our best(gulp) but again low IQ doesn’t have defenders on helpside or stopping the ball.

All starts with the right personnel and we have seen disaster lineups, subs and all so far. This is where we need coaches to step up. Otherwise just flush it and hope we get the number 1 pick next year(oh wait!)—this isn’t the NBA yet we may already have that player on our team
Excellent. Totally agree with everything above. Pike has also played Ace at the 5, which is another option. Your starters should be able to cut down on the turnovers and make some foul shots at least.
 
Post UCLA. SRS #81 (#62 offense, #158 defense)

Adj ImpactMinutes PctPer 40Rating Impact
D. Harper
157.6​
75%​
12.3​
9.21​
A. Bailey
49.1​
73%​
3.9​
2.87​
J. Williams
-8.9​
57%​
-0.9​
-0.52​
J. Derkack
-17.0​
53%​
-1.9​
-0.99​
L. Sommerville
0.6​
49%​
0.1​
0.03​
J. Davis
-29.7​
45%​
-3.8​
-1.73​
Z. Martini
-19.6​
36%​
-3.2​
-1.14​
T. Acuff
10.6​
35%​
1.7​
0.62​
E. Ogbole
-13.6​
35%​
-2.3​
-0.79​
P. Hayes
-7.5​
29%​
-1.5​
-0.44​
D. Grant
2.7​
11%​
1.4​
0.16​
P. Noble
1.9​
0%​
38.4​
0.11​
M. Fradkin
0.1​
0%​
2.3​
0.01​
Residual
0.04​
7.42​
 
Post UCLA. SRS #81 (#62 offense, #158 defense)

Adj ImpactMinutes PctPer 40Rating Impact
D. Harper
157.6​
75%​
12.3​
9.21​
A. Bailey
49.1​
73%​
3.9​
2.87​
J. Williams
-8.9​
57%​
-0.9​
-0.52​
J. Derkack
-17.0​
53%​
-1.9​
-0.99​
L. Sommerville
0.6​
49%​
0.1​
0.03​
J. Davis
-29.7​
45%​
-3.8​
-1.73​
Z. Martini
-19.6​
36%​
-3.2​
-1.14​
T. Acuff
10.6​
35%​
1.7​
0.62​
E. Ogbole
-13.6​
35%​
-2.3​
-0.79​
P. Hayes
-7.5​
29%​
-1.5​
-0.44​
D. Grant
2.7​
11%​
1.4​
0.16​
P. Noble
1.9​
0%​
38.4​
0.11​
M. Fradkin
0.1​
0%​
2.3​
0.01​
Residual
0.04​
7.42​
I see you P. Noble per 40 👀....
 
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vs P5OtherTotal
Dylan Harper
90.0​
39.5​
129.5​
Emmanuel Ogbole
8.9​
-16.7​
-7.8​
Lathan Sommerville
7.5​
-3.8​
3.7​
Jordan Derkack
2.3​
3.9​
6.2​
Tyson Acuff
0.5​
-3.3​
-2.8​
Ace Bailey
0.5​
-9.4​
-8.8​
Jeremiah Williams
-1.9​
8.5​
6.5​
PJ Hayes
-6.5​
14.9​
8.4​
Dylan Grant
-7.0​
-3.6​
-10.5​
Zach Martini
-8.1​
7.7​
-0.4​
Jamichael Davis
-33.2​
-5.2​
-38.4​
Clearly Ogbole should get more playing time.
 
Out of curiosity, this metric is showing what amount each player has contributed to our NET, which is implying that a higher number is better, yes? Given that our NET is in the very bottom of Major 4 conference schools, what does that mean? I'd assume if this analysis were done for the worst NET team, there would still be a player at the top of the list.... Would that mean that player was doing well, or not? Is this metric in any way useful to compare players between teams of significantly different net ranking?
 
Out of curiosity, this metric is showing what amount each player has contributed to our NET, which is implying that a higher number is better, yes? Given that our NET is in the very bottom of Major 4 conference schools, what does that mean? I'd assume if this analysis were done for the worst NET team, there would still be a player at the top of the list.... Would that mean that player was doing well, or not? Is this metric in any way useful to compare players between teams of significantly different net ranking?
I was going to say, all this means is that, thus far, Dylan may be the only guy who should play.
 
Out of curiosity, this metric is showing what amount each player has contributed to our NET, which is implying that a higher number is better, yes?
Technically it's their contribution to our SRS (simple rating system) which should be relatively close to NET but it's not exactly NET.

Given that our NET is in the very bottom of Major 4 conference schools, what does that mean?
It is calibrated such that the average team is zero. So a positive number means better than the average (division I) team and a negative number means worse. It could be recentered so that it was, for example, relative to a "bubble team" (i.e. setting the #40 or #45 team to zero) or anything really, but currently zero is set as the average D1 team.
I'd assume if this analysis were done for the worst NET team, there would still be a player at the top of the list.... Would that mean that player was doing well, or not?
You would look at their actual number. A player with a positive number per 40 should be doing better than the D1 average and a player with a negative number should be doing worse. Very roughly you can take a player's number per 40 and multiply by 5 in order to get the threshold for various stuff, like a team made out of 5 of a player with rating X would be this good. I don't have the ratings in front of me but roughly it should be like:
A +5 or +6 would equate to the #1 team (i.e. a team of five of those players would be approx equal to Auburn)
Roughly a +3 would be a top 25 team
Roughly a +2.4 would be a bubble team
Is this metric in any way useful to compare players between teams of significantly different net ranking?
Yes it should be in theory as described above though in practice who knows.

I actually found where the necessary data is available on Torvik's site in a json file so whenever I get time to write code to parse that and do the calcs I can do a ranking of this for all the players across the country and then we can see if it makes any sense or not.
 
Post UCLA. SRS #81 (#62 offense, #158 defense)

Adj ImpactMinutes PctPer 40Rating Impact
D. Harper
157.6​
75%​
12.3​
9.21​
A. Bailey
49.1​
73%​
3.9​
2.87​
J. Williams
-8.9​
57%​
-0.9​
-0.52​
J. Derkack
-17.0​
53%​
-1.9​
-0.99​
L. Sommerville
0.6​
49%​
0.1​
0.03​
J. Davis
-29.7​
45%​
-3.8​
-1.73​
Z. Martini
-19.6​
36%​
-3.2​
-1.14​
T. Acuff
10.6​
35%​
1.7​
0.62​
E. Ogbole
-13.6​
35%​
-2.3​
-0.79​
P. Hayes
-7.5​
29%​
-1.5​
-0.44​
D. Grant
2.7​
11%​
1.4​
0.16​
P. Noble
1.9​
0%​
38.4​
0.11​
M. Fradkin
0.1​
0%​
2.3​
0.01​
Residual
0.04​
7.42​
Passes the eye test too. Dylan, Ace, Acuff, Grant, Lathan to start, some combination of Ogbole, JMike/JWIll and Hayes/Martini off the bench. I do think JMike’s defense might be a little undervalued here, but he’s still probably not a positive player
 
Passes the eye test too. Dylan, Ace, Acuff, Grant, Lathan to start, some combination of Ogbole, JMike/JWIll and Hayes/Martini off the bench. I do think JMike’s defense might be a little undervalued here, but he’s still probably not a positive player
I think it completely must overvalue offensive efficiency to have Sommerville as slightly above average thus far. Can see that also effecting a defender like JMike.
 
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Passes the eye test too. Dylan, Ace, Acuff, Grant, Lathan to start, some combination of Ogbole, JMike/JWIll and Hayes/Martini off the bench. I do think JMike’s defense might be a little undervalued here, but he’s still probably not a positive player
Like
My
Post right before ucla game
 
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