Prediction of how the rest of the season will go.....
- Thread starter Greene Rice FIG
- Start date
I think we're f'd. I know we've been in this situation in the past, but in the past we had two guys who were legit scoring threats and could take over a game. Somewhat inconsistent but threats for sure. I just don't get the same feeling this year. I wouldn't' be surprised if Wisconsin buries us this weekend. And for sure I think PSU will in their building.
3-2 most likely outcome.
It's amazing how fast some of you guys wilt.
It's amazing how fast some of you guys wilt.
I want RU to do well as much as anyone. That's why I will be sitting behind RU bench Saturday. But facts are facts. Sometimes you need to look at reality and not just a whim and a hope. Since Mag got injured, the team hasn't really played a single noteworthy half of basketball. And they are letting other teams score almost at will.
4-1 the rest of the way I think/hope
3-2 most likely
7/10 game in Orlando
3-2 most likely
7/10 game in Orlando
That's not a fact. Your projection of how a team will play in the future is like a textbook example of an "opinion" from the kind of fact or opinion questions they give to third graders, so I'm not sure how you would try to present that as a fact.
Then, even your statements of the past are not particularly accurate; I'm not exactly sure what a "noteworthy" half of basketball is but if we translate it to good or at least decent obviously at least the first half at Illinois qualifies.
We lost two games we were expected to lose and laid one absolute stinker; in two of the three the players who are actually playing (not Mag) played far worse than their average and in the other Cliff took himself out of the game. It would have been extremely difficult to win under those conditions, Mag or no Mag, as much as everyone is making him out to be Michael Jordan around here now.
The true fact of the matter is that unless you think that Paul, Cam, Cliff, Hyatt, et al have suddenly transformed into worse players as opposed to just having a few bad games, the team is much more likely to perform within a couple points of the average established season to date than it is to just play like the Nebraska game for the rest of the season. Message board posters extremely weak psyches aside, the team will not have given up because of a three game losing streak that included one bad loss.
And it shouldn’t be the end of the world, key injuries affect top teams all the time, usually with a marked decrease in a team’s performance. Our highly touted recruits and prospects, if they really are about RU, shouldn’t be phased by this.
The ranges cover it, and I'll overlay:
5-0? Highly unlikely - But possible if Cam, Hyatt both get in a consistent offensive zone, along with two of of Cliff and/or Paul/Caleb contributing on the offense, and defense goes back to its top status.
4-1? Unlikely. - But possible if Cam, Hyatt both get in a consistent offensive zone, along with one of of Cliff and/or Paul/Caleb contributing on the offense, and defense goes back to its top status
3-2? Most likely. - But possible if both Cam, Hyatt get in a consistent offensive zone and defense goes back to its top status
2-3? Likely. - But possible if either Cam, Hyatt get in a consistent offensive zone and defense goes back to its top status
1-4? Unlikely - But possible if neither Cam, Hyatt get in a consistent offensive zone, but maybe one of Cliff/Paul/Caleb do enough and defense goes back to its top status to pull one out.
0-5? Highly unlikely. - But possible if there is a game like the last three where no one provides any consistent offense and defense is a shell of itself.
This team is not in the top 100 in offensive efficiency and that is killing them. They have very little room for error in their defense and once that breaks the team is in trouble. That has been the M.O. under Pikell that may finally change with the next couple of classes (assuming they come).
Cam has regressed without a doubt. Cliff getting in more foul trouble without that stellar Mag D to help him down low. Paul too timid to shoot, but that has been chronic issue. Caleb trying to shoulder the offensive load and that just isn't his game.
Cam was never going to shoot 65% from three and 97% from the line all season, just like he isn't going to shoot 20% from three all season. He will be fine relative to realistic expectations.
Paul and Caleb are what they have always been, Cliff got in foul trouble one time, just not that much has changed. Some guys had some bad games, shit happens.
I think when you add it all together, with Mag, team was a dangerous group but record was probably somewhat of overachievement. Without him, we are not a good defensive team. Plain and simple. So we were treading thin ice in terms of our success with fully healthy Mag, but no Mag, teams put up 75+ on us. We don't have that offensive capability, hence no wins since Mag left injured.
C'mon, 11-9 and we're not sweating anything - at least a 9 seed. We only sweat if we finish 10-10 and don't win one in the B1G tourney. I thought we were going to finish 4-2, but now would be ecstatic with 3-2 after blowing one of the "easy" wins and worrying that something is truly wrong. The question is whether the 2nd half of MSU and playing IU/IL tight (not unexpected losses) is indicative of the rest of the season or if NE is. Given the huge uncertainty in that, I feel like making a prediction is futile.
At 19-13 we would be 13-13 vs real competition and 11-13 if you don’t count Minnesota.
Last year we were in Dayton at 18-13.
Last year we were in Dayton at 18-13.
But our NET will be hugely better vs. last year, even with a 2-3 finish, which is why I think we'd be an 11, but a win in the B1G tourney would sure be nice for insurance. I also still believe that the OSU "win" will be counted in at least a small way should we be right on the bubble - might bump us up 1-2 slots, since we all know we should be 17-9/9-6 right now (that game is not your regular "whining about the refs" - the game was absolutely stolen from us in a once in 5-10 year event).
These "real competition" records are meaningless. Every team plays a bunch of cupcakes in OOC
Last year our NET was bad and we lost at home to Lafayette
L - At Wisconsin. Rock fight. We lose a very tight game. 58-56
W - Michigan. Team gets its mojo back. RAC is rockin. 68-64
L- At Penn State. Nits seek revenge and get it. We lose convincingly. 71-59
W- At Minnesota. Game is very competitive and close. 64-60
W - Northwestern. RAC rocks team to likely NCAA bid. 67-62.
19-12 / 11-9 going into Big 10 tourney.
W - Michigan. Team gets its mojo back. RAC is rockin. 68-64
L- At Penn State. Nits seek revenge and get it. We lose convincingly. 71-59
W- At Minnesota. Game is very competitive and close. 64-60
W - Northwestern. RAC rocks team to likely NCAA bid. 67-62.
19-12 / 11-9 going into Big 10 tourney.
If you don’t count real competition what would Big East teams records be. That conference has cruds like DePaul / Butler / GTown andSt John’s. Talk about a pathetic horrid bottom of league. 🤮
Better chance of win this Saturday. They ain't winning against Northwestern with prayer NCAA bid on line.
Predictions are fun, but let's face it... no one knows what the hell is going to happen. We'll just keep watchin'. It's what makes being a sports fan awesome!
worried
Its an enormous difference this year
We had 2 horrific losses and 70 net last year
Its an enormous difference this year
We had 2 horrific losses and 70 net last year
Will defer a bit to @bac2therac here…
I think we want to be careful hanging out hat on the NET. I think it is used by the committee more for SOS purposes.
I don’t think the committee will fall for teams playing to the NeT beating weak teams by 30 instead of 15.
I think we want to be careful hanging out hat on the NET. I think it is used by the committee more for SOS purposes.
I don’t think the committee will fall for teams playing to the NeT beating weak teams by 30 instead of 15.
If we finish 19-13 we would have the same record as last year of 18-13 with the only difference 1 extra Q4 cupcake.
Same exact record really. Are the schedules that much different?
Same exact record really. Are the schedules that much different?
It’s hard to know. I imagine there is some level of NET where they would be hard pressed to leave a team out. What does it say about your sorting tool if you leave out #20 for example? That said, in any situation where we’re really sweating the NET won’t be THAT high
What would our NeT be if we took the 5 35+ point victory and made them 20?
I’ll bet we would be in high 40s or low 50s
I’ll bet we would be in high 40s or low 50s
Net is garbage mainly but its better to have a good one.
19 wins and RU is getting in
At Purdue
At Northwestern
Indiana
Michigan State
Maryland
Add a possible additional win vs either Northwestern or Wisconsin
Youre not going to make it through the night
Other thing that has me concerned is 3 of last 5 are against teams that we are fighting against to get a bid. I know there isn’t a cap on a conference but Michigan Wisconsin and PSU are all in the vicinity. If we can’t get 1 of them we be in trouble.
I look at Michigan and Wisconsins schedule. I’d think we need to be bare minimum 1 game ahead of them just to be even. Especially Michigan. 18-14 RU not getting in over 18-15 Michigan or 18-14 or 18-15 wisconsin
I look at Michigan and Wisconsins schedule. I’d think we need to be bare minimum 1 game ahead of them just to be even. Especially Michigan. 18-14 RU not getting in over 18-15 Michigan or 18-14 or 18-15 wisconsin
Wisconsin is likely in.
There are really only maybe 6 schools to worry about and id only be worried about North Carolina
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