I think zero is very possible, although we know that we have two or three that could AA if they wrestled their best with consistency.
Rn on flo, we are predicted to get 0 AA, 2 r12, good for a proj score of 7pts which will result in a 31st place team finish…
I always hated how the scoring is done, essentially, one champ is worth the same as 10 r12 wrestlers…. That’s puts too much weight on being a top wrestler and not enough on the “team” aspect of it…
This makes the value of top 10 p4p recruits skyrocket and essentially it’s a game of the top programs gathering the most “chess pieces.”
Basically we are better then the 31st team but based on how the scoring is done we will be around there if no AA…
Ranking Progress
- Thread starter PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist
- Start date
Right, just saying what we are projected as of now on flo, after all, this is a rankings progression thread…
Zero is very possible? There are four wrestlers on the roster who have AA'd and two(?) were blood round guys last year. Plus some young talent. You think there is a likely pathway to no points???
To be fair, two of those guys are Poz and Turley and I think there is 0 chance either of them AA. Best chances are Yara, Shawver, Peterson in that order. Don’t see a path for anyone else
I have Rutgers at 1 or 2 AAs based on current Intermat rankings:
There is even a better chance Rutgers gets 3 AAs than the chance of 0 AAs:
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Wow that’s a nice chart, and the AA probabilities look very realistic.. kinda wonder how those AA probabilities % came to beI have Rutgers at 1 or 2 AAs based on current Intermat rankings:
There is even a better chance Rutgers gets 3 AAs than the chance of 0 AAs:
Using trailing 10 years of placement by seed data to produce a raw empirical probability, I then fit it in two directions, by seed and by finish, to come up with the fitted probabilities.
At the top 10ish seeds there is little difference between the raw data and the fitted data.
Edit: and once I have the individual probabilities I do an algebraic expansion to come oup with the probabilities of 0 to 10.
Never would have imagined that after Poz and Turley’s AA campaign that only a few years later, instead of contending for a title, we are predicting them closer to 0% chance for either to AA.. and both are healthy and in the lineup… just boggles my mind.
I think wrestleknownothing’s chart is pretty accurate.. 2% for Turley and 6% for Poz seems pretty close.. seems a little low on Turley for me as he’s been wrestling pretty well lately..
Olivieri could be a dark horse to AA, little surprised it’s 19% chances, but he’s been wrestling pretty good guys close.. just haven’t got that signature win yet.
