I think zero is very possible, although we know that we have two or three that could AA if they wrestled their best with consistency.
Rn on flo, we are predicted to get 0 AA, 2 r12, good for a proj score of 7pts which will result in a 31st place team finish…
I always hated how the scoring is done, essentially, one champ is worth the same as 10 r12 wrestlers…. That’s puts too much weight on being a top wrestler and not enough on the “team” aspect of it…
This makes the value of top 10 p4p recruits skyrocket and essentially it’s a game of the top programs gathering the most “chess pieces.”
Basically we are better then the 31st team but based on how the scoring is done we will be around there if no AA…
Ranking Progress
- Thread starter PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist
- Start date
Right, just saying what we are projected as of now on flo, after all, this is a rankings progression thread…
Zero is very possible? There are four wrestlers on the roster who have AA'd and two(?) were blood round guys last year. Plus some young talent. You think there is a likely pathway to no points???
To be fair, two of those guys are Poz and Turley and I think there is 0 chance either of them AA. Best chances are Yara, Shawver, Peterson in that order. Don’t see a path for anyone else
I have Rutgers at 1 or 2 AAs based on current Intermat rankings:
There is even a better chance Rutgers gets 3 AAs than the chance of 0 AAs:
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Wow that’s a nice chart, and the AA probabilities look very realistic.. kinda wonder how those AA probabilities % came to beI have Rutgers at 1 or 2 AAs based on current Intermat rankings:
There is even a better chance Rutgers gets 3 AAs than the chance of 0 AAs:
Using trailing 10 years of placement by seed data to produce a raw empirical probability, I then fit it in two directions, by seed and by finish, to come up with the fitted probabilities.
At the top 10ish seeds there is little difference between the raw data and the fitted data.
Edit: and once I have the individual probabilities I do an algebraic expansion to come oup with the probabilities of 0 to 10.
Never would have imagined that after Poz and Turley’s AA campaign that only a few years later, instead of contending for a title, we are predicting them closer to 0% chance for either to AA.. and both are healthy and in the lineup… just boggles my mind.
I think wrestleknownothing’s chart is pretty accurate.. 2% for Turley and 6% for Poz seems pretty close.. seems a little low on Turley for me as he’s been wrestling pretty well lately..
Olivieri could be a dark horse to AA, little surprised it’s 19% chances, but he’s been wrestling pretty good guys close.. just haven’t got that signature win yet.
I think we get an AA, but if you said what is more of a chance 2-AA's or 0-AA's I would probably pick 0. Agree that Yara(a couple big injuries with Hwt's this season help), then Shawver because he has done it. Peterson is the wild card, look at his victories throughout his career. He can beat anyone, but can he string 3-4 big wins in a weekend? My next would be Olivieri, he could upset a couple times. 174 is loaded and there are really only 5 spots available O'toole(assuming he is back), Haines and Hamati are a level above the rest. Same with 197, Barr is ranked 4th and their is a lot of depth. Poz and Turley have a very low % to AA.
My thought was he referred to getting zero points as very possible but I now see he could have been referring to zero AAs.
According to Webster they are two different words. But the way my sentences were structured, very possible and likely lead to the same general conclusion that there is a good chance.
Turley needs one more magical run where he takes enough chances to win but doesnt have too many WTF moments getting caught for an extra takedown or back points. We also need to see a conditioned Turley who doesnt blow four flat tires on the mat. Poz needs to get back to his old self. There's a lack of aggression which is missing, especially when on his feet. After he is down points, he starts to wrestle with urgency which has generally benefitted him. Joey has improved offensively in neutral positions. If he continues to get better and score TDs on high ranked guys consistently, I like his chances. Especially given his defensive abilities. I like Yara's chances the most given his conditioning, agility and quickness. He wrestles conservative/smart enough to keep it close then pounces at the end. But one wrong move could derail his AA chance.
Sadly they rejected my application. Something about being 4 years old. Blatant age discrimination.
I think Peterson, Shawver and Yara have shots to AA. I'd say the over under is around 1.5 AA this year.
Using this week's Intermat rankings, Rutgers expected AA's creeps a little closer to 2 at 1.8:
That is the highest level since Nov. 12
That is the highest level since Nov. 12
Both Peterson and Yara-Slav would have to wrestle to their rankings. Shawver has some work to do. I don't see anyone else having much a chance. Turley and Poz both have about squat chance of repeating. Poz continues his slide. Harer can't seem to catch a break in the ranking.Using this week's Intermat rankings, Rutgers expected AA's creeps a little closer to 2 at 1.8:
That is the highest level since Nov. 12
The AA probabilities seem pretty on point.. the only thing I’m kinda confused about is why Poz, ranked 22, has 1.6% chance of AA… while Turley, ranked 27, has a 4.6% chance of AA..
Also didn’t realize Olivieri and Clark were ranked that high… and White too… maybe we can qualify all 10 this year..
You can blame Turley himself and three other #26 seeds who have AA'd from that spot in the last 5 years (8% of the time) for causing the bump around 25, 26, 27
| Year | Weight | Finish | Name | Seed | School |
| 2024 | 141 | 8 | Vance Vombaur | 26 | Minnesota |
| 2021 | 174 | 8 | Jackson Turley | 26 | Rutgers |
| 2021 | 197 | 6 | Jake Woodley | 26 | Oklahoma |
| 2019 | 184 | 7 | Dakota Geer | 26 | Oklahoma State |
