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Rutgers at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships

Jaroslav Hasek

Sophomore
Apr 30, 2014
491
281
63
went through the B1G pre seeds and the season results on wrestlestats.com to get an idea of how many NCAA NQ's to expect. in the interest of not burying the lead, I'd expect 7. Below is how I got to that number.

125 - McCabe is seeded 8th and the B1G has 7 spots
- Losses to Purdue and Wisconsin does not bode well. Youtsey is seeded 7th, who McCabe lost to in SV a month ago. McCabe may see him in the the 7/8th match for the last spot. I put his odds of qualifying at a little under 50%

133 - Giraldo is seeded 10th and the B1G has 9 spots
- Several good wins this year for Giraldo but not a lot in the B1G, which is admittedly very tough at 133 this year. The good news is if seeds hold, Girlado will see Malone from NW in the 9/10 match for the final spot. Giraldo is 2-0 vs Malone thus year and so I put his qualifying odds at a little over 50%

141 - Ashnault is seeded 3rd and the B1G has 7 spots
- Ash will get a wildcard bid if for some reason he doesn't finish top 7 here. He'll likely see Abidin NEB in the quaters, who he's beaten convincingly twice and Thorn MINN in the semi's, against who Ash will be looking to avenge is dual meet loss. Ash could see Micah Jordan in the finals, who did not wrestle in the dual meet.

149 - Dippery is not seeded and the B1G has 6 spots
- Dip does not have a wins against anny of the top 8 seeded wrestlers so he will have to score some upsets to earn a bid. Not impossible but I'd give Dippery single digit odds at stealing a spot in the tournament.

157 - Lewis is seeded 3rd and the B1G has 7 spots
- This is a tougher road than it looks at first glance for Richie. IMar and and Nolf are the two best at this weight in the country but the next 6 best in the conference are much more closely bunched, with former NQ Mascola MD as the 8th seed. Lewis does have wins against seeds 5-8 (plus a loss to Cooper IA that was avenged). He could see the very stout Murphy MICH in the quarters, then IMar in the semis. Richie should earn his spot next weekend but it's possible he has to rely on a wild card. I have about 95% odds of making it to MSG.

165 - Perrotti is seeded 4th and the B1G has 6 spots
- With a win over top top 5 174 lber Ramos UNC, Perrotti should get a WC regardless of how things shake out in Iowa City. If he's in top form he could see Welch, who he pinned a couple weeks ago, in the quarters and Isaac Jordan in the semi's, who he lost to 4-0. Perrotti is a near lock, if not 100%, for a bid.

174 - Bakuckas is seeded 9th and the B1G has 9 seeds
- No wins against anyone seeded ahead of him, but if seeds hold Phil would have to beat 10th seed Sliga NW for the final auto bid. They didn't wrestle each other yet but Bak would be a heavy favorite. I could also see Phil pullin off a mild upset int he quarters to earn a bid. I put his odds at around 75%.

184 - Gravina is seeded 5th and the B1G has 7 spots
- With a signature upset of Dudley NEB under his belt, Gravina earned his nice seed and should feel confident going into the tournament. He could see Dudley again in the quarters, and should he lose the rematch he should be able to handle everyone else in the division at least up to 8th seed Christiensen WISC. Not a lot but Nick has very good odds for earning a bid, perhaps 90%.

197 - Hrymack is seeded 7th and the B1G has 6 bids
- Though one of the longer shots at qualifying, Hayden does not quite face insurmountable odds. He'll be a huge underdog if he sees Pfarr MINN in the quarters, but an upset over Martin tOSU for 6th would not be unprecedented, should Hrymack battle back to get to that spot. This is a tough call but I put the qualifying odds at about 15%.

285 - Smith is seeded 4th and the B1G has 7 spots
- Based on this season's body of work, Billy should get a wild card bid if he does not manage to qualify in the perennially strong Big Ten heavyweight division. However more likely Smith will see Kroells MINN in the quarters and then Coon MICH in the semis. Kroells will be tough (Smith needed tiebreakers to beat him) but Smith has a win over 6th seed Jensen NEB this year and 2 very close losses to 3rd ranked Stoll IA. 2nd seeded Snyder tOSU and 8th seeded Nevills PSU didn't earn tourney berths for the B1G due to lack of matches but will be contending for a spot (or a championship). Nonetheless I think Smith is as close to a lock for a bid as Lewis or Perrotti.

Adding up my odds, I get 5 locks (or near locks) at 141, 157, 165, 185 & 285, plus 2 more qualifiers from the remaining weights, most likely at 174, 133 and 125, in that order. 8 is certainly achievable if everyone is healthy is wrestling to their potential.

Please add any corrections or discrepancies you find with my cited results or opinions. apologies in advance for the typos, no time to proof read unfortunately.
 
went through the B1G pre seeds and the season results on wrestlestats.com to get an idea of how many NCAA NQ's to expect. in the interest of not burying the lead, I'd expect 7. Below is how I got to that number.

125 - McCabe is seeded 8th and the B1G has 7 spots
- Losses to Purdue and Wisconsin does not bode well. Youtsey is seeded 7th, who McCabe lost to in SV a month ago. McCabe may see him in the the 7/8th match for the last spot. I put his odds of qualifying at a little under 50%

133 - Giraldo is seeded 10th and the B1G has 9 spots
- Several good wins this year for Giraldo but not a lot in the B1G, which is admittedly very tough at 133 this year. The good news is if seeds hold, Girlado will see Malone from NW in the 9/10 match for the final spot. Giraldo is 2-0 vs Malone thus year and so I put his qualifying odds at a little over 50%

141 - Ashnault is seeded 3rd and the B1G has 7 spots
- Ash will get a wildcard bid if for some reason he doesn't finish top 7 here. He'll likely see Abidin NEB in the quaters, who he's beaten convincingly twice and Thorn MINN in the semi's, against who Ash will be looking to avenge is dual meet loss. Ash could see Micah Jordan in the finals, who did not wrestle in the dual meet.

149 - Dippery is not seeded and the B1G has 6 spots
- Dip does not have a wins against anny of the top 8 seeded wrestlers so he will have to score some upsets to earn a bid. Not impossible but I'd give Dippery single digit odds at stealing a spot in the tournament.

157 - Lewis is seeded 3rd and the B1G has 7 spots
- This is a tougher road than it looks at first glance for Richie. IMar and and Nolf are the two best at this weight in the country but the next 6 best in the conference are much more closely bunched, with former NQ Mascola MD as the 8th seed. Lewis does have wins against seeds 5-8 (plus a loss to Cooper IA that was avenged). He could see the very stout Murphy MICH in the quarters, then IMar in the semis. Richie should earn his spot next weekend but it's possible he has to rely on a wild card. I have about 95% odds of making it to MSG.

165 - Perrotti is seeded 4th and the B1G has 6 spots
- With a win over top top 5 174 lber Ramos UNC, Perrotti should get a WC regardless of how things shake out in Iowa City. If he's in top form he could see Welch, who he pinned a couple weeks ago, in the quarters and Isaac Jordan in the semi's, who he lost to 4-0. Perrotti is a near lock, if not 100%, for a bid.

174 - Bakuckas is seeded 9th and the B1G has 9 seeds
- No wins against anyone seeded ahead of him, but if seeds hold Phil would have to beat 10th seed Sliga NW for the final auto bid. They didn't wrestle each other yet but Bak would be a heavy favorite. I could also see Phil pullin off a mild upset int he quarters to earn a bid. I put his odds at around 75%.

184 - Gravina is seeded 5th and the B1G has 7 spots
- With a signature upset of Dudley NEB under his belt, Gravina earned his nice seed and should feel confident going into the tournament. He could see Dudley again in the quarters, and should he lose the rematch he should be able to handle everyone else in the division at least up to 8th seed Christiensen WISC. Not a lot but Nick has very good odds for earning a bid, perhaps 90%.

197 - Hrymack is seeded 7th and the B1G has 6 bids
- Though one of the longer shots at qualifying, Hayden does not quite face insurmountable odds. He'll be a huge underdog if he sees Pfarr MINN in the quarters, but an upset over Martin tOSU for 6th would not be unprecedented, should Hrymack battle back to get to that spot. This is a tough call but I put the qualifying odds at about 15%.

285 - Smith is seeded 4th and the B1G has 7 spots
- Based on this season's body of work, Billy should get a wild card bid if he does not manage to qualify in the perennially strong Big Ten heavyweight division. However more likely Smith will see Kroells MINN in the quarters and then Coon MICH in the semis. Kroells will be tough (Smith needed tiebreakers to beat him) but Smith has a win over 6th seed Jensen NEB this year and 2 very close losses to 3rd ranked Stoll IA. 2nd seeded Snyder tOSU and 8th seeded Nevills PSU didn't earn tourney berths for the B1G due to lack of matches but will be contending for a spot (or a championship). Nonetheless I think Smith is as close to a lock for a bid as Lewis or Perrotti.

Adding up my odds, I get 5 locks (or near locks) at 141, 157, 165, 185 & 285, plus 2 more qualifiers from the remaining weights, most likely at 174, 133 and 125, in that order. 8 is certainly achievable if everyone is healthy is wrestling to their potential.

Please add any corrections or discrepancies you find with my cited results or opinions. apologies in advance for the typos, no time to proof read unfortunately.

Solid analysis....wouldn't shock me to get all 10 thru...nor would it surprise me to.see only 6 get thru...any less would shock me though...I do feel the guys will be a lot more prepared as most were here last year, so they know what this tourny entails....I'm pumped for a great weekend of wrestling!! Go RU!!
 
When do the matches start? What time is the reseeding.
I am hoping Giraldo doesn't get Conaway in the 1st round.
I think Conaway's may be too much for him.
 
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