Rutgers basketball has ‘best 2-man backcourt’ in Big Ten, analyst says
A college basketball analyst believes Rutgers has the best backcourt in the Big Ten.
Rutgers basketball has ‘best 2-man backcourt’ in Big Ten, analyst says
- Thread starter Tango Two
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Imagine how good they'll be when they've actually played a game.
ton of hype for sure. As a long time suffering RU fan, I guess I am very wary of getting too excited.
That's fair but let's turn this around. Which backcourt would you trade Dylan and Jeremiah for right now (albeit for 1 year only)? I can't think of 1 in the BIG.
"Purdue will return first-team all-Big Ten guard Braden Smith and his backcourt partner Fletcher Loyer next season."
I love the way Rafael always has love for RU, but you can't put anyone ahead of Purdue's backcourt right now. He may be saying this on purpose to light a fire under his Boilermakers.
I love the way Rafael always has love for RU, but you can't put anyone ahead of Purdue's backcourt right now. He may be saying this on purpose to light a fire under his Boilermakers.
Well ... I am not saying RU's top 2 are better than Smith and Loyer. But ... Loyer was rather inconsistent, frankly, and is not necessarily All Big Ten quality. And, though I thought Smith was ligitimately the best PG in the US last season, and dramatically improved, especially his mid-range shooting game, there is absolutely no doubt he was made HUGELY better because of having Edey to set screens and to CONVERT, almost unstoppably in many games, on the passes delivered.
You could make a legitimate argument that Smith would have averaged no more than 4.5 assists per game (rather than his 7.5 apg) with any other player than Edey on the court. Plus, it is likely that many more of his mid-range and 3-point shots would have been contested with a player other than Edey on the court so often - and thus his FG% and 3-pt FG% would have been lower. Is Smith a 1st Team All Big Ten if he averaged 10-11 ppg (rather than 12 ppg), on 42% FG and 39% 3-pt FG%, and averaged 4.5 ass/g to go with his 2.7 turnovers/g?
Loyer averaged 10 ppg. JWill averaged 12+ ppg on a team that averaged 20 ppg fewer than Purdue - playing at a much slower offensive pace. I think that you could make a strong case JWill was better than Loyer last season (a better defender, better scorer, better able to get his own shot, though not as good a 3-pt shooter) - though Loyer had some games that were monster games (20+ points) - but also games where he was completely invisible. Then the question would be would a 6'5" to 6'7" 210 pound top 5 high school recruit in Harper is as good or better than a 6'0" (though very long-armed) improved Junior-season Smith (with Smith lacking the force of an Edey to through the ball into and create spacing for him). I honestly don't know: I was very impressed with Smith last season, but there is no doubt whatsoever Edey made him a lot better ... and Edey is gone.
FYI - Just did the math. JWill shot 44% FG overall, while shooting 21% from 3 in a limited number of 3's attempted (19% of his FG attempts). He shot 50% from 2-point range. Loyer shot 41% overall FG and just 39% from 2-point range - though 44% from 3 on a relatively high volume of 3's (47% of his FGF tries were from 3) . Smith shot 44% FG overall, shooting 43% from 3 (1/3 of his FG attempts were from 3) and 44.5% from 2-point range.
Draw from those stats what you will. Williams' poor 3-point shooting certainly hurt his offensive value. But he compensates by limiting those attempts. And he was a much better, much more efficient, 2-point shooter than either Smith or Loyer.
Loyer is inconsistent and yes without Edey let us see how good he is.
They have the next Edey coming in this year. He’s another tree, something like 7’3. May take him a year or so to acclimate but Purdue gets their centers ready quickly
Edey factor is definitely real. Smith is excellent and will be without Edey too. Loyer made progress, shot less, took better shots. A comp with JWill is a bit off though. One was third or fourth option and JWill was our first. He also took like 5 more shots per 40.
I do think, if Dylan plays like I think he will, our two will still be better this year.
If anything, doesn’t that help the argument he made about J Will? We had nobody else so it was more likely J Will would be forcing more lower percentage shots when nothing else is there. You’d expect a guy who is 3rd or 4th option to have the higher percentage from pretty much everywhere since that guy can be more selective about his shots.
Also - as “first” option, any looks J Will was getting weren’t being facilitated by others as he was counted on to be the facilitator of last year’s offense without a BIG like Edy to play a point forwardish type role as a facilitator. J Will is not a good 3 point shooter, but he also didn’t get looks from the “Hyatt sweet spot” on the wing (he hits one of those in the scrimmage footage but I don’t recall him taking any of those in the games which is the highest percentage 3 attempt.
Smith is real good, with Edey notwithstanding.
Loyer is easier to defend than either JWill or Dylan.
Loyer is easier to defend than either JWill or Dylan.
No, it doesn't strengthen anything, comparing Loyer and Williams last year is a pointless endeavor. You'd have to compare Smith or Lance Jones to Williams LY for lead guard comps.
You focus on the JWill part so much I'm beginning to think you are related to him. I've already said, as long as Dylan is what I think he can be as a freshman, the RU duo is better. More length, we should be better defensively, ect. If Loyer becomes a more all round guy in his third year with a bigger scoring role, he and Smith, and maybe the OSU duo are the only ones I see that could potentially be as good as Dylan and JWill.
Actually - it sort of seems like the reverse to me. Like maybe you have something personal against J Will?
Someone else posted the comment about Williams efficiency being better from 2 than Loyer. Not me. You jumped in to refute this with an argument that Loyer was 3rd or 4th scoring option while J Will was one. My comment was only that, if anything, this would be an argument to explain the opposite. Hyatt was more efficient from 2 at LSU because of lower usage. That’s usually how it works when you limit your shot selection to only include wide open looks otherwise pass it off.
I haven't said anything negative about JWill in this thread, and pretty sure I didn't comment on any post about Williams efficiency being better (maybe I didn't read an entire post, it's possible). My only point here is this is a conversation on this year, not last, and you can't compare a lead guard to another teams 4th option swing guy. Of course J Will was better than Loyer last year, I'm not sure there's an argument to be made otherwise. Very different players in very different roles. Loyer will be counted on more now, as an upperclassmen. He grew a bit by taking smarter shots last year. Does he develop further goes a long way to determining whether he and Smith can come close to the RU tandem. There is no experienced Jones as the second lead guard anymore, I don't think.
The post you replied to directly with the comment about loyer being 3/4 option vs. J Will 1st option specifically pointed out that Loyer was much less efficient scorer than J Will from 2 but better from 3 (albeit J Will didn’t attempt many 3s). I’m not sure there was any other point made other than this in the post you quoted. That was pretty much the bulk of it I think?
I posted that JWill's 2-pt FG% (isd that efficiency?) was better than Loyer's: Williams shot 50% from 2 while Loyer shot 39% from 2.
And I agree, that since JWill was RU's 1st offensive choice on offense (by his own effort, since no one else was capable, so almost by default), you would think his 2 pt FG% would be LOWER than someone who had a lower shooting rate, and was less of a focus, no?
Williams' biggest offensive problem was he could not hit a 3-point shot to save his life (just 21%), which limited his offensive potential substantially. He compensated by not taking that many 3's (maybe 20% of his shots - ridiculously low for a guard). On the other hand, everyone KNEW he could not hit a 3, and would not really take a 3 ... which IMO makes his 50% FG from 2 more impressive, not less impressive.
Nope, no it doesn't. Just went up to read. The comment I replied to says nothing about anyone's efficiency from 2. Whole point was Loyer wouldn't have been the lead guard you would compare to last year.
This is what I replied to:
Loyer averaged 10 ppg. JWill averaged 12+ ppg on a team that averaged 20 ppg fewer than Purdue - playing at a much slower offensive pace. I think that you could make a strong case JWill was better than Loyer last season (a better defender, better scorer, better able to get his own shot, though not as good a 3-pt shooter) - though Loyer had some games that were monster games (20+ points) - but also games where he was completely invisible.
Please save this and hopefully throw it back in my face.
Because frankly, JWill is going to start and likely play nearly 30mpg along with Harper. Regardless of what I think.
JWill and Harper could be the most talented backcourt but that doesn't necessarily make them the best fit for each other.
I've said, if (and this is a big IF apparently as we've discussed in other threads) Harper is going to have the ball most of the time then we should consider a better 3pt shooter next him. To open up space for Harper/Ace on the court.
Different skill sets but same idea:
Think of the Knicks Jalen Brunson/Donovan Mitchell situation.
Regardless of cost, they just wouldn't work together on the court.
Would they be in the argument for the most talented backcourt in the league? Definitely.
But that doesn't mean they would be the most success backcourt.
Because frankly, JWill is going to start and likely play nearly 30mpg along with Harper. Regardless of what I think.
JWill and Harper could be the most talented backcourt but that doesn't necessarily make them the best fit for each other.
I've said, if (and this is a big IF apparently as we've discussed in other threads) Harper is going to have the ball most of the time then we should consider a better 3pt shooter next him. To open up space for Harper/Ace on the court.
Different skill sets but same idea:
Think of the Knicks Jalen Brunson/Donovan Mitchell situation.
Regardless of cost, they just wouldn't work together on the court.
Would they be in the argument for the most talented backcourt in the league? Definitely.
But that doesn't mean they would be the most success backcourt.
Yeah, that's been my only point about JWill this off season. He's not the perfect fit next to Dylan, that doesn't mean they can't be successful.
Fair enough. Lion posted a follow up with the efficiency math to further clarify his point in the post above about why he thought J Will was better - but your right, I see you responded directly to the initial one. When I posted, I had read through the entire string at once and naturally tied his two posts together.
J Will and Dylan could each average 30 minutes per game and only end up on the court together for half the game. Presumably - this would happen often as I don’t expect that duo to sit at the same time too often.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see 10 minutes or so of Davis, Dylan and J Will playing together 1-3 when we apply full court pressure- if our foul situation permits it. When you press - traditional offensive ball rotation kind of goes out the window if your press is effective as a large volume of shots would hopefully be attempted in transition for those stretches.
I understand and respect this POV...it is why I think jwill is your "primary" PG. If we enter a world where everyone is an integer (it clearly isn't with Pike over the years and hoops as a whole) jWill as a 2 hurts us.
There are so many storylines I will be looking at.....this certainly is 1 of them....near the top.
Based on my limited knowledge of seeing Dylan Harper only playing a little both in HS and AAU............................................
I can see Dylan Harper being the "1" in transition as we want him with the ball in these situations and I think he will be very efficient. He looks great downhill and has excellent body control. When we have a slowed down possession and the opponent has time to match up and we need to initiate offense we want JWill to be that guy.
1. He is probably better at it
2. Leaves more energy in Harper's physical gas tank
3. Leave more in Harper's emotional gas tank
4. i gather JWill will be the team's "leader"
NOT nit-picking, nor really totally disagreeing, just using your post as the one to make a general point, not specific to your post:
I think many of us more "experienced" fans (meaning "old farts") get hung up on the so-called "traditional" positions, like PG, 2G, Wing (or "3"), PF, Center. I do so at times.
But that is not how the hoops game is played anymore, not at higher levels (RU just has not had the players to truly play this more modern game). Yes, there are pure Centers, and pure PF's and pure PG's. For example, Ogbole is a traditional pure Center. I think Jer. Davis is the closest thing to a "pure PG" RU has. Omoruyi was a pure, traditional Center (as was Edey, for example). I think the way the game is NOW played - in the NBA, and at many high level college teams, the DESIRE is to have man y more players who are multi-dimensional, who can play multiple roles, cover multiple positions defensively, create different match-up problems depending who is opposing them.
In THAT vein, Harper is CLEARLY what I would call a "Lead Guard." He can score with the ball in his hands (like a scoring PG). He can make his teammates better with the ball in his hands (like a pure PG). He can score off the catch and shoot (like a pure 2G). e can score in transition - and pass in transition. In the halfcourt he can play off the ball - AND trigger the offense with the ball. And I think Williams is ALSO a "lead" guard - just not as talented as Harper offensively, especially because he cannot be relied upon to hit the 3. I think in the halfcourt, when Harper and Williams are both in the game, they each will trigger the offense, depending on matchups, screens. switches, etc.
By the way, Bailey is a "3", a WF ... but can defend from the 1 to the 4, and can lead a fast break, is a 3-level scorer (drive to the rim, mid-range pull up and midrange post up, and 3-point range), and appears to be a willing and decent passer. Bailey is more defined by his skills, than by any positional label.
Somerville is also a different type of player than RU has had: Nominally a Center, but with a mid-range shooting game (maybe even out to 3-point range). I do not know where that slots him in the modern parlance.
Secondary to your point - if Dylan is playing the 1 in the integer world you describe, who on the team doesn’t “hurt” us at the “2”?
I think some folks have an unrealistic vision of what Acuff brings to the table. His overall perimeter numbers are better than J Will (and Davis and Jordan) but he’s extremely streaky. He’s has a few incredible games where he couldn’t miss with 6-7 three pointers and one more where he went 5-7. That’s great except that he’s only shot about 29% the rest of the time outside of 4 games from long range (and this is a guy with a lot of usage data playing against crappy teams). He’s not known for being a good defender and if you watch his MAC film, he seems to favor his right a lot in penetration. These aren’t exactly the markings of an ideal 2 guard either.
PJ Hayes has the prototype to complement Dylan as a 2 guard. In my opinion, he’s the only player on the team who theoretically can fit this mold. In my opinion, the questions around PJ’s D are more about the quality of help D that Ogbole, Ace and Martini can play than holding expections for major improvements of on ball D from Hayes (Pike might help him some, but that’s not going to move the needle). PJ will get beat - it is what it is. So did Paul. The question is whether we have the personnel to mitigate. I predict that Sommerville and PJ won’t play much together for this reason. But maybe the other 3 guys in the post will play decent bail out D that will allow Hayes to remain on the court to stretch the floor. We’ll see.
lion,
we agree that traditional positions are 20+ years ago.
If it is clear Harper is a LEAD guard why in HS was he a clear cut old school 2?
I also think you severly underestimate the rigors of being a primary PG being tasked with using energy bringing the ball up against a pesky guard and being tasked with simulataneously getting a team in an offensive set.
It is a HUGE ask of a freshman who will also hit a wall in the middle of the seASON
1. pLAY DEFENSE
2. Be the QB offense
3. Bring the ball up against pesky opponents
4. Carry a load of the scoring
Too much on his plate! Especially when you have a natural PG on the team who frankly can't shoot.
we agree that traditional positions are 20+ years ago.
If it is clear Harper is a LEAD guard why in HS was he a clear cut old school 2?
I also think you severly underestimate the rigors of being a primary PG being tasked with using energy bringing the ball up against a pesky guard and being tasked with simulataneously getting a team in an offensive set.
It is a HUGE ask of a freshman who will also hit a wall in the middle of the seASON
1. pLAY DEFENSE
2. Be the QB offense
3. Bring the ball up against pesky opponents
4. Carry a load of the scoring
Too much on his plate! Especially when you have a natural PG on the team who frankly can't shoot.
Pike is going to have a tough time not having a lineup of
JMike, JWIll, Dylan Ace and Martini if the reports I see are close to being the real thing.......which in actuality is a longshot.
Pike is Pike until I have evidence he isn't. Preseason talking points not doing anything for me.
JMike, JWIll, Dylan Ace and Martini if the reports I see are close to being the real thing.......which in actuality is a longshot.
Pike is Pike until I have evidence he isn't. Preseason talking points not doing anything for me.
I’d be shocked if Ogbole doesn’t start at the 5. Martini is being groomed for the 4. That doesn’t mean this line up won’t ever be on the court together though.
i am talking down the stretch...68-68 with 2 minutes left.
Ogbole obviously is a huge wildcard....if he hits he is shot blocking 5 i want.
Until I am shown otherwise I am choosing to assume he is a 10-15 MPG guy that can eats minutes.
I realize and hope there is a meaningful probability I am wrong here!
And see - the only way I see Ogbole playing less than 15 mpg is if foul trouble keeps him off the court (certainly possible). I just don’t see Martini playing that many minutes at the 5, and I’m very bearish on what the defense will look like with Sommerville at center for long stretches. So I think he’s going to play a ton out of need for better or worse.
Hayes seems closer to a stretch 4 than a 2 to me. Slow footed, doesn't handle the ball, doesn't distribute, poor defensively, other than his shooting ability doesn't do much. I can see what you mean though about sticking him in between Ace and Dylan, if they both play as well rounded offensively as we think. It would have to be for short spurts though.
I think EO, if he stays out of foul trouble, and Martini will probably be fine defensively and we really need that third guy with the freshman to be a plus on that end of the court too.
On Acuff, many guards have a hand they favor, if the other guys on the court have to be paid attention to, it really doesn't matter. If the help is easily there, then yeah, it's more difficult. Almost every swing guard we've had has been streaky. He's willing to shoot the three, which makes the defense have to guard against it. You have to be willing to shoot it, prior to last year about 45% of his shots were from three. JWill was down to 19% last year, and Hayes was at like 75%. Acuff is the guy that is a threat from all three levels. No one has said he's an all american, or even all conference level talent, and I've only said if he defense was better he's a better fit next to Dylan.
There may be a few combo's we don't see together much. PJ and Sommerville, Derkack and other poor shooting guards, Ace Lathan and Hayes combo, ect.
I didn't think Harper was a clear cut old school 2 in any HS game I watched.
I don’t mean to be a Debbie downer on Acuff, but I guess I kind of am a little.id love to be wrong. I find it concerning the fact that every team where he’s played a material role has been a perrenial loser (not just middle of the pack conference bad - horrible). I do get that all kids probably favor one side - but I’ve watched a lot of film in my time, and I think this is the first time that has ever stood out as something I actually noticed - could be because we’re in the process of pushing my son to drive left more though. Definite possibility! But I remember watching Cam Spencer’s film from Loyola and thinking - this kid is versatile - the 3 ball was his signature but he could score in the halfcourt sets in a lot of ways. Acuff used the same move (rip and drive hard right) to score his points in penetration. And then there is the D issue which is a whole different concern - especially with him working his way back from injury now.
