our schedule is not easy
Rutgers is ‘most underrated’ team in Big Ten, analyst says: Here’s why
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
Gavin got us to 7 Wins, despite the lack of talent in the WR Corp. he also went against a schedule that included OSU, PSU, UM, and Iowa, keeping Rutgers competitive until the last quarter, when Rutgers ran out of gas. There isn’t an opponent on the schedule that’s on par with the aforementioned. Anything less than 10 Wins will be a disappointment.
Rutgers won 7 games in spite of Wimsatt. You know this.
Prepare to be extremely disappointed, then.
Schedule may be easier but passing and the better QB wins, and we will likely only have the better QB in only the first two games. Therein lies the problem with a 1950 philosophy. Hard to win 6 with the better QB in only 2.
But Fieldhouse Al of La Mancha won’t be disappointed because he’ll pivot to predicting next year’s undefeated season 5 minutes after the season ends.
What he is disappointed about is wasting NIL cash grooming his love interest who transfered. That had to sting.
Yup - Vegas pegged us around 99 / 96 / 99 / 85% to lose those 4 games. For sure. But let’s talk about the other 8 games. Wisconsin and Maryland were probably 60ish % likely gameday Vegas odds losses as we played both of those teams when they were at full strength. We lost as Vegas predicted. So in summary - whether Vegas gave us a 95% or a 60% chance of losing, the games they expected us to lose went down exactly as predicted. The other 6 games we were actually favored to win on game day. All 6.
So guess what? We might not have any games where it’s 95% given that we’re going to lose. But we also may not even be game day favorites in more that 4 games. And you think it’s disappointing if we don’t go 10-2. You think we’re pulling 6 upsets? We didn’t upset anyone last year. We won all the games we were supposed to which is easier said than done and step in the right direction. But get real about next season expectations please.
Please realize who you’re arguing with…common sense and reality have no bearing in any discussion. It’s like asking a politician not to be self-interested or corrupt. We are, after all talking about the greatest Rutgers team EVER assembled. There are teams strongly considering forfeiting the entire year because “what’s the point!” 😎
When has Fieldhouse Al of La Mancha kept things real about anything ? False football reality, imaginary ‘relationships’, etc
Oh I know but I’m just tired of hearing how great Wimsatt was. It’s kind of ridiculous at this point. Nice kid. But he’s going to be second string at UK (who will not win 10 games next year either) as he’s simply not a major conference level QB.
He spoke flatteringly of GW just as your wife would defend and speak glowingly of you. Except your relationship is real. His relationship with GW is only real to him. Manti Teo-level pathetic.
Yeah I know. And while you speak of Schiano as if he murdered your whole family - I’d really hope even you have enough common sense to realize Al’s bar for a “successful season” RELATIVE to last year is not fair to either AK or the coaching staff. The conversation about where our team should be in the rebuild overall is an entirely different discussion.
The bottom line is we won only one road game all last season - against a team that was significantly weaker than any team we will play on the road this season. If we’re getting to even 8-4, that means not only are we winning the 3 home games that we have at least a chance to be favored in (UCLA, Illinois and Minny) - we also have to find 3 additional wins. Doing that would be incredible relative improvement year over year. It would mean either winning out at home (including a signature win over Washington) plus 2 road wins against teams better than Indiana was last year. Or alternatively we would be pulling off 3 road wins (and again - Indiana was worse than anyone on our road schedule for next year). If we pulled this off - it would be massive year over year progress. Al is saying based on what Wimsatt did last year we need 10 for it not to be a disappointment? What the heck.
Never said Schiano isn't a good person, just that he isn't a good head coach. He's playing checkers while other coaches, well, you know ....
Shelby agrees with everything you said, and in particular the point that despite RU's schedule being easier than last year in theory, they will still usually be underdogs .... Schiano doesn't win as an underdog.
But there's more. Why don't they win as underdogs? The philosophy. Schiano doesn't have the talent or depth to win with a predictable and simple offense. Most Big10 defenses are too stout and well coached. Yet he refuses to open up the playbook and take the chances necessary to possibly win. Losing closer games via running clock is his goal.
We play against Jedd Fisch. He worked wonders with creative offense at Arizona. That's how you win when you have less talent. Brian Kelly at Cincinnati did the same and schooled Schiano every time.
And Chip Kelly at New Hampshire. Remember that ? They didn't beat the more talented team (RU) by running between the tackles.
We replaced the worst QB in CFB with someone barely better. Good QBs stay the heck away from Schiano.
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Sorry, but this passage is clueless and lacks a knowledge of Rutgers Football History.
The only reason the offense was predictable and simple was due to the lack of talent, especially in the WR Corp. When Schiano had Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood the offense was equally good at passing the ball as it was running the ball. In fact, in 2008, we were better at passing the ball than we were at running the ball, so the offense was much less predictable.
During the first four years of Schiano 2.0, Rutgers could run the ball well but didn’t have enough talent to pass the ball well. This is the first year where Rutgers has the talent to both run and pass effectively. We will still mostly run the ball, but passing game productivity will be significantly improved, thanks mostly to the addition of Dymere Miller, who had 1200 + receiving yards for Monmouth LY
...or Siberiacuse being left out of the Power 2 conferences with Oregon State and Washington State?
I really don’t care what Vegas thinks because I’m not a gambler. When I look at the schedule, I see 11 Games we should win, and a 12th which is a reach.
How many games did you think we “should” have won last year??? By the standard your setting - had to be more than 6.
While I mostly agree with you, I think one also has to consider the unusually large number of starters that are returning in 2024 for Rutgers. After an impressive 2023 the defense...with a year's experience... should be even better.
And Monangai and most of his O-line is back for 2024.
This group has a lot of potential.
Yes absolutely. Don’t misunderstand. I’m not dismissing the possibility of a banner season. There’s certainly a path. Having potential is different, however, from setting a minimum expectation of meeting that prophecy.
I just think many of our fans are seeing Al’s nonsense about 10 wins minimum and thinking that 8 should be a cake walk. This is patently false. Even if we’re perfect against UCLA, Minny, Illinois and Maryland Michigan State (that’d be 5-0 with 2 road wins) - we’d still need, on top of being perfect with the above - to either win a 3rd road game @VTech, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin, @ USC or win at home against Washington. This would be far from easy,
We destroyed VT last year in the trenches, which were unaffected by injury. VT ran out of gas in the fourth quarter, much like we did when facing PSU, OSU, Iowa, and UM.
Gavin’s pick 6 against Wisconsin was the difference in that game. Athan had a career game against Wisconsin, in ‘22, throwing for 319 yards and 2 TDs. Braedon Allen was also a difference maker in last years game and he was drafted.
Washington only has three starters left from last year. They are a team in transition, as they lost 29 players from their two deep.
USCs defense is very poor, and they will be beaten down, having faced Penn State, Michigan,Maryland and Wisconsin among others in previous weeks.
Athan completes 58% of his passes, with 20 TDs and 13 interceptions, and we will have a great chance to win 12.
The thing about Washington and VaTech - Washington lost starters and backups- 40 players left. But yes, still not a gimme but you do need to know that is 1st, 2nd, 3rd string players that left. The backups that would beat most teams are on other teams now.
VaTech- keep in mind- everyone loves them but they still only beat Pitt/Cuse/BC/WF/Va/Tulane...they are better then when we played them but they are far from world beaters
Va. Tech opens with Vandy, Marshall and Old Dominion. If they aren't comfortably 3-0 that should be a definite win.
No doubt regarding the last point. I agree they are not unbeatable, but it is still a MUCH harder game. No matter what angle Al wants to try to analyze last year’s game from - VTech still followed our game up with a loss to Marshall the very next week. Even if they aren’t world beaters - the version of them that we played was significantly weaker than the version that rattled off those ACC wins you list above. And this time it’s on the road.
Agreed. But I’m expecting them to win those games. The teams they beat in the second half of the season are better.
First of all - what your saying about the trenches doesn’t tell the whole story. This article from a VTech beat writer following their loss provides a more realistic take. Yes - we wore VTech’s line down, but their biggest issue was the missed tackles by the back up safeties which allowed the big plays. Our guys deserve all the credit for exploiting their weaknesses, but there’s a reason VTech’s run D improved when they got healthy. They had better players.
Five Thoughts Following Virginia Tech’s Loss at Rutgers
247sports.com
It was also Drones first full game at QB (he played one series against Purdue).
I don't "need to know" that Washington lost lots of players. It's a line repeated on this board all the time to supposedly back up why Rutgers will beat them. The difference between us and Washington is they won 14 games last year and we won 7. Their backups could have beaten our starters. UW will be favored in this game so of course it's not a "gimme" for RU. Far from it.
Rutgers didn't beat anyone impressive either. Northwestern was technically our best win but they were a mess when we played them after just firing their coach before the season. These things work both ways. Again, Rutgers will not be favored against VT or Washington.
Correct - unless those teams lose head scratchers to mid majors early we will not be favored.
There are only a few games (besides Akron and Howard) where we might be favored barring the opponent avoids losses to MaC teams or equivalent.
Probably Illinois.
Maybe Minnesota.
Possibly UCLA (depends how they do early).
That’s probably it - 5 games as the favorite.
VT was run over by every good team they played
- 259 rushing yards to Rutgers
- 238 rushing yards to Marshall
- 305 rushing yards to FSU
- 250 rushing yards to Louisville
- 225 rushing yards to NC State
I mean - the Marshall game was the same personnel as the Rutgers game. So was FSU I believe. It was 2 weeks later.
UofL just dominated them. Point blank. I think UofL dropped one pass in the game. Kind of reminds me of what our game with Maryland was like. Except UofL a better team.
I wouldn’t exactly say NC State’s run game gashed VTech the way your putting it. We rushed for 7.5 ypc. They rushed for 4 ypc. Big difference. And Marshall is not a good team.
I'm not good at margins of victory, but I also think Rutgers will take that one...
He actually made a pretty good point- teams that can run beat them- early and late in the season
I mean, maybe. It could also just be that they stunk early, lost bad to a better UofL team and then lost close game to an even match up in NC State. 4 yards per carry is decent but it’s not amazing.
There is no question though that VTech stunk early with their depleted roster. They lost 3 back to back - to Rutgers, Marshall and Purdue who I believe beat them in the air. And Marshall wasn’t exactly “good”.
Same with Miami in the bowl. Most all the better players including the QBs1,2,3 skipped the game. So, while none of that is RU’s fault a win is a win and all that matters in the end is the W-L record, the record isn’t a good indicator of improvement.
The record itself isn’t a great indicator, but there’s no question the team has steadily improved from the Ash era under Schiano. That much really isn’t debatable.
The team was way more competitive game in and out last year (even against the best) until injuries depleted our D in the last few games. We looked like we belonged in contrast to Buffalo mopping the floor with us.
But yeah - I agree with you that what Al is trying to do with setting expectations based on how we did last year is very flawed. Miami wouldn’t have had 6 wins playing an entire season with the roster they had for the Pin Stripe bowl (as an example).
Even at that though, the reality is the 5 road opponents for next season ALL project to be materially better than anyone we’ve beaten on the road so far under 2.0 - no question in my mind. He’ll try to argue the 2 win Michigan State team in the COVID year but I don’t buy it - that was just a weird year with players out on pause and that team finished 2-5. The reality is we’re headed to hostile environments and he’s setting the minimum expectation at 3-2 for those games (along with being perfect at home). Thats just nuts.
also don't think Miami has 6 wins playing the schedule we had.
And let's not forget- we actually outplayed OSU. That Wisc game also should have been ours too. Both games lost on horrible calls by our OC and horrible throws by our QB who is no longer here. Our team actually played better than our record last year.
But it seems our fans love the negative
As you well know, Shelby doesn't think Schiano has what it takes to elevate Rutgers beyond a middling 5-7 to 7-5 Big10 team each year.
Sure, he's built a better team than he inherited. He's a better coach than Ash. That's hardly a proper measure of his competence; the prior coach and team was awful. Any of 100 other hires would have improved on that fiasco too.
The question is, can he win consistently in the Big10. I think the answer is no.
