Rutgers watching Massoud in Dallas

[Mr Magoo]

This kid was an under-the-radar 3 Star prospect who started from start to finish on a B1G team. We finished with 15 wins and I can’t imagine how many we would have had without him. Mensah and Dadika would have had to play even more minutes. He was asked to do way more than he should have been. Next to Sanders, he was probably our MVP, and yet some people still aren’t happy with him.

 

[higgins3]

Please stop with the nonsense.I commended Baker on his freshmen season and getting the rookie of the year award in the NYC Metro area.What you fail to address is my comment of B1G talent versus what Rutgers has put on the court since joining the league.That is the central issue which has prevented Rutgers from achieving a winning season even with very easy out of conference schedules.Nobody knows how the Rutgers team will perform this season with all the new players.At the same time fans should have minimum expectations for team performance and that is a winning season.

Progress is not always wins and losses. People don’t want to hear it, but you can see that the progress on court and recruiting will eventually take us out of the basement.

 

[TDIrish27]

Agreed

But you can't finish last 3 years in a row and expect people to buy season tickets or take you seriously .

Which is why it's important next season to take a small but tangible step forward

 

[higgins3]

Agreed

But you can't finish last 3 years in a row and expect people to buy season tickets or take you seriously .

Which is why it's important next season to take a small but tangible step forward

Definitely. If people enjoy the product, and the nights the team competes hard, they wil come. Which is most knights. Regardless of last place, that was last season for 75% of games. Tangible step is good, but people are showing up still, which means something. It’s positive.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Agreed

But you can't finish last 3 years in a row and expect people to buy season tickets or take you seriously .

Which is why it's important next season to take a small but tangible step forward

Doesn't the roster make up, determine whether you finish last next year or not....??

You are rolling out 7 underclassmen next year and a JUCO that has not played High level CBB

Baker/Kiss/Doucoure/are sophomores

Mathis/McConnell/Myles Johnson/Harper Jr

Shaq Carter is a junior, along with Eugene/Thiam

Shaq Doorson is your senior, with extremely limited minutes and playing time over his career at RU

Young is a sit out transfer.....

I'm not a basketball "expert", but if your top 8 players are relatively green and you are playing in an elite conference, I don't see how RU isn't picked for last place next year....even if a miracle happened and you landed a Hyatt type of wing player, you have 9 players with only Baker/Eugene/Thiam/Doorson who've played any quality basketball opponents at a B1G level.

This isn't about a make or break Year 3....it's a 2 year window of this season and next season....Fans need to reset expectations on what this staff inherited...it was an upper-class type of roster of pieces that worked very hard and for the most part bought in.....we had to shed Diallo/Laurent who were also upperclassmen at the time, to then bring in a Eugene and Thiam stayed committed.

As happy as I am about the reworked roster and better shooting/passing/playmaking and expanded roster, anyone asking for anything crazy out of this roster (even if Sanders returned), isn't realistic.....we are deeper and more talented, but freshman are freshman for a reason and 2018-19 is a sorting out of the pieces year.....you need to find out what you have, throw the kids out there, adjust/tweak the roster/build confidence and hope Eugene/Thiam take steps as juniors to salvage something.

Even the Kentucky type programs with 5* freshman at every position, lose 9-11 games most years, in an improved SEC and elite schedule....The key is the last 2 spots and filling them with another quality or 2 player, that can support this 2018 class....anything more than that, is a little much.

Grad transfers may soften the impact, but to me, extends the learning curve more into 2019-2020....then fans will be complaining that the roster isn't developed fast enough to make strides, because you are not playing freshman or sophomores more minutes this season.

 

[TDIrish27]

Yes the Big Ten will be an excellent league next year but not so much at the bottom.

Is it too much to ask to pass Wisc , Minn and/or NW ?

 

[kcg88]

Alright, I had the time so here you go. Average performance of all 4-star guards as true freshman in the B1G (only one, Brevin Pritzl at Wisconsin, redshirted). I looked at four classes: 2014-2017, giving me a 28-player sample size.

The shooting percentages are from the raw totals added up. I didn't calculate each player's percentage individually.

2-point percentage: 44.03%
3-point percentage: 33.94%
FT percentage: 75.63%

The average Assist% - Turnover % was -1.48, and the average ORtg was 99.43, although this is unweighted meaning Thomas Allen's 97 ORtg in roughly 10 minutes/game counted for the same weight as Melo Trimble's 116.5 ORtg in roughly 30 minutes/game.

The average minutes played was about 21 per game.

For the big reveal...

Geo shot worse on 2-pointers: 37.9% compared to the 44.0% above.

Geo shot better on 3-pointers: 37.1% compared to the 33.9% above.

Geo shot slightly better than average on free throws: 78.5% compared to 75.6% above.

His assist rate minus turnover rate was 1.1, which is above the average.

His ORtg was just above average, 100.9 compared to the 99.4 average.

His minutes played (about 30 per game) would have ranked behind only Melo Trimble, Tony Carr, and Brad Davison.

Analysis
Here's what I'll say. My perception of what 4-star guards are able to do in their freshman year was inflated. It was surprising to me just how many of them honestly weren't very good.

Melo Trimble was far and away the best out of anybody. His 116.5 ORtg was nearly six points better than the next-closest.

In that next group (107-111) you've got Matt McQuaid, Jalen Coleman-Lands, Amir Coffey, Anthony Cowan, Jordan Poole, and Brad Davison.

A pretty good group here. Cowan was very very good as a sophomore and will turn heads next year. Coffey was on his way to another good year as a sophomore year before getting hurt. McQuaid turned into a reliable started on a top-5 team, although obviously he was not the guy defenses keyed in on (and it took a year -- his sophomore campaign was only okay). Poole and Davison were just freshman in 2018. Coleman-Lands is the odd man out... he had a very disappointing sophomore season and transferred to DePaul.

What about in Baker's neighborhood? (ORtg of 98-102) This group includes Robert Johnson, Glynn Watson, Aaron Jordan, Zavier Simpson, and Trent Frazier.

IMO this is a promising sign for Geo. Johnson had a great sophomore year before regressing a bit as a junior and senior. Simpson's three-point shooting still stunk as a sophomore but his two-point shooting improved, likely because Beilein detests taking low-percentage shots. Glynn Watson had a very nice sophomore season but like Johnson slumped as a junior. Frazier was just a freshman in 2018. And Aaron Jordan had an outstanding junior season after being brutal sophomore season... Combine that info with the Coleman-Lands tidbit from above and draw your own conclusion about Illinois' former coach.

And then there are the low, low ones (85-96 ORtg). This is a total grab-bag, featuring Carsen Edwards and Tony Carr but also Kevin Dorsey and A.J. Harris. Who? Exactly. Some guys who really struggle as freshman turn it around (two more examples: Josh Reaves and Dion Wiley) and some just fade away.

Conclusion
I come out of this quick study more optimistic about Baker than when I went in. Nobody can ever say for sure how a player will progress, but I think his numbers and the minutes he got are a solid foundation on which to build.

Of course, it's important to consider that these guys were rated 4 stars for a reason, and I would venture to say that Baker would only rate in the 30th or 40th percentile on raw athleticism were he in the sample. So that's something to keep in mind.

The other factor is that I used overall numbers, not conference-only, in order to get a larger sample size. Geo has a wide range here: 100.9 ORtg overall, but only 88.0 in Big Ten play (17 games). However, in what KenPom defines as Tier A+B games (and Baker played in 16 of those), his ORtg was 99.8. So I don't think it's as big of a red flag as it first seems.

 

[kcg88]

Here's each player, if you care to see.

 

[kcg88]

And I just realized I forgot to include Corey Sanders in my sample somehow. He doesn't change the math in any meaningful way.

 

[TDIrish27]

Definitely. If people enjoy the product, and the nights the team competes hard, they wil come. Which is most knights. Regardless of last place, that was last season for 75% of games. Tangible step is good, but people are showing up still, which means something. It’s positive.

5-6000 in an Arena that seats about 9,000 on a campus with over 30,000 students is a bad look.

 

[MadRU]

just over 8000, not 9000

 

[higgins3]

5-6000 in an Arena that seats about 9,000 on a campus with over 30,000 students is a bad look.

Good point. Still early in the build. If it is year 4-5 and this is the case, the program will have an issue.

 

[KevH]

It’s a shame about Mulcahy. I do not think anyone worked harder than Pikiell on his recruiting. I respect Pikiell for turning the page and taking Young. I truly thought Paul wanted to come to Rutgers but so be it.

Wait. Did I miss something?

 

[MadRU]

Wait. Did I miss something?

No, didn't miss anything

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

Wait. Did I miss something?

Maybe you missed this.

 

[Scangg]

Alright, I had the time so here you go. Average performance of all 4-star guards as true freshman in the B1G (only one, Brevin Pritzl at Wisconsin, redshirted). I looked at four classes: 2014-2017, giving me a 28-player sample size.

The shooting percentages are from the raw totals added up. I didn't calculate each player's percentage individually.

2-point percentage: 44.03%
3-point percentage: 33.94%
FT percentage: 75.63%

The average Assist% - Turnover % was -1.48, and the average ORtg was 99.43, although this is unweighted meaning Thomas Allen's 97 ORtg in roughly 10 minutes/game counted for the same weight as Melo Trimble's 116.5 ORtg in roughly 30 minutes/game.

The average minutes played was about 21 per game.

For the big reveal...

Geo shot worse on 2-pointers: 37.9% compared to the 44.0% above.

Geo shot better on 3-pointers: 37.1% compared to the 33.9% above.

Geo shot slightly better than average on free throws: 78.5% compared to 75.6% above.

His assist rate minus turnover rate was 1.1, which is above the average.

His ORtg was just above average, 100.9 compared to the 99.4 average.

His minutes played (about 30 per game) would have ranked behind only Melo Trimble, Tony Carr, and Brad Davison.

Analysis
Here's what I'll say. My perception of what 4-star guards are able to do in their freshman year was inflated. It was surprising to me just how many of them honestly weren't very good.

Melo Trimble was far and away the best out of anybody. His 116.5 ORtg was nearly six points better than the next-closest.

In that next group (107-111) you've got Matt McQuaid, Jalen Coleman-Lands, Amir Coffey, Anthony Cowan, Jordan Poole, and Brad Davison.

A pretty good group here. Cowan was very very good as a sophomore and will turn heads next year. Coffey was on his way to another good year as a sophomore year before getting hurt. McQuaid turned into a reliable started on a top-5 team, although obviously he was not the guy defenses keyed in on (and it took a year -- his sophomore campaign was only okay). Poole and Davison were just freshman in 2018. Coleman-Lands is the odd man out... he had a very disappointing sophomore season and transferred to DePaul.

What about in Baker's neighborhood? (ORtg of 98-102) This group includes Robert Johnson, Glynn Watson, Aaron Jordan, Zavier Simpson, and Trent Frazier.

IMO this is a promising sign for Geo. Johnson had a great sophomore year before regressing a bit as a junior and senior. Simpson's three-point shooting still stunk as a sophomore but his two-point shooting improved, likely because Beilein detests taking low-percentage shots. Glynn Watson had a very nice sophomore season but like Johnson slumped as a junior. Frazier was just a freshman in 2018. And Aaron Jordan had an outstanding junior season after being brutal sophomore season... Combine that info with the Coleman-Lands tidbit from above and draw your own conclusion about Illinois' former coach.

And then there are the low, low ones (85-96 ORtg). This is a total grab-bag, featuring Carsen Edwards and Tony Carr but also Kevin Dorsey and A.J. Harris. Who? Exactly. Some guys who really struggle as freshman turn it around (two more examples: Josh Reaves and Dion Wiley) and some just fade away.

Conclusion
I come out of this quick study more optimistic about Baker than when I went in. Nobody can ever say for sure how a player will progress, but I think his numbers and the minutes he got are a solid foundation on which to build.

Of course, it's important to consider that these guys were rated 4 stars for a reason, and I would venture to say that Baker would only rate in the 30th or 40th percentile on raw athleticism were he in the sample. So that's something to keep in mind.

The other factor is that I used overall numbers, not conference-only, in order to get a larger sample size. Geo has a wide range here: 100.9 ORtg overall, but only 88.0 in Big Ten play (17 games). However, in what KenPom defines as Tier A+B games (and Baker played in 16 of those), his ORtg was 99.8. So I don't think it's as big of a red flag as it first seems.

Did someone just admit they might have been wrong on a message board?!?! Now I've seen it all! When you're wrong you're supposed to either start yelling or dissappear from the thread ;)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Pikiell is where he is at in Year 3 based on his decision to retain Shoes and keep Sanders. He didn't want rebuild on Day 1 and now it is Year 4 or 5 where the results are hopefully seen. He tried to draw an inside straight and didn't get his card.

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

Pikiell is where he is at in Year 3 based on his decision to retain Shoes and keep Sanders. He didn't want rebuild on Day 1 and now it is Year 4 or 5 where the results are hopefully seen. He tried to draw an inside straight and didn't get his card.

What?

 

[Scangg]

Pikiell is where he is at in Year 3 based on his decision to retain Shoes and keep Sanders. He didn't want rebuild on Day 1 and now it is Year 4 or 5 where the results are hopefully seen. He tried to draw an inside straight and didn't get his card.

Can you imagine how bad the team would have been without Sanders last couple years? Probably so bad we wouldn't have been able to land all the studs coming in. I'd say it was the right move

 

[ruman]

Can you imagine how bad the team would have been without Sanders last couple years? Probably so bad we wouldn't have been able to land all the studs coming in. I'd say it was the right move

Exactly

 

[dkostus]

Pikiell is where he is at in Year 3 based on his decision to retain Shoes and keep Sanders. He didn't want rebuild on Day 1 and now it is Year 4 or 5 where the results are hopefully seen. He tried to draw an inside straight and didn't get his card.

Most ridiculous thing you've posted, but directly in line with drawing a negative out of anything.

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

Most ridiculous thing you've posted, but directly in line with drawing a negative out of anything.

That comment has to be a guy just looking for attention....what's the saying....No such thing a bad press. One of the most ridiculous comments ever on this board....EVER !

And that's coming from a guy like me who said some stupid stuff during the Jordan years because I really wanted to see the native son succeed.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

2 years and 14 th place out of 14. Don't think we could have done worse.

Our team was built around 2 flawed players and now Year 3 is a rebuilding year.

No doubt Pikiell has built the foundation with a defensive identity so we are not on the ground floor.

 

[KevH]

Maybe you missed this.

Here's hoping we see plenty of that in the near future, but in scarlet.

View embedded media

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

2 years and 14 th place out of 14. Don't think we could have done worse.

Our team was built around 2 flawed players and now Year 3 is a rebuilding year.

No doubt Pikiell has built the foundation with a defensive identity so we are not on the ground floor.

You may have lost it.

Great way to build a program. Get rid of Sanders and now it looks like you are saying let Freeman go as well.... those two flawed players. Go 5-27 and try to get Geo Baker or Peter Kiss or a year later Montez Mathis and others to signup for that.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You may have lost it.

Great way to build a program. Get rid of Sanders and now it looks like you are saying let Freeman go as well.... those two flawed players. Go 5-27 and try to get Geo Baker or Peter Kiss or a year later Montez Mathis and others to signup for that.

Look at our schedule and Sanders shooting %s and do you honestly think we go 5-27 in year 1?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Supposedly Jose Alvarado went to GA Tech because of $, but Sanders in front of him had to be a reason too.

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

Look at our schedule and Sanders shooting %s and do you honestly think we go 5-27 in year 1?

Let's move on. I have nothing else. You are right.

 

[Scangg]

Why would any recruit want to sign up to play on the team minus Sanders and Freeman? That could have been one of the worst teams in P5 history and set the program back so far there would be no come back in sight.

I have zero doubt the roster now is insanely better than it would have been if Sanders and Freeman both left. They allowed the team to show some promise and fight that allowed Pike to sell his vision to recruits.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Alvarado was a nice player this season but so was Baker.....maybe there's no McConnell if you got Alvarado...maybe you don't have Kiss or Young as options.

Shedding Sanders off his freshman season wasn't a good idea...he was the player that ultimately allowed the rebuild to start...

For those asking RU to be better than 2 or 3 teams this season, it's certainly possible but it's clear that fans somehow believe Wisconsin didn't lose both starting guards...that was the reason they fell so i dont think they are within range.

It's probably best to see how summer workouts actually go and where the last ship goes, before asking for 10th or 11th this coming season. It would be great to see, but a lot of freshman would have to be Geo like next year (Mathis, McConnell and steps forward from others), to happen.

I'm actually more confident that this team will be better in Feburary than December, but fans only want the mirage of wins and losses...if the team shoots better from 3 and can knock down 3 more 3s per game vs last year, while playing tough defense, you are set up nicely for the future.

 

[MadRU]

Rutgers to be watching Massoud this weekend in Indy.

 

[RickB113]

Green has gone off the deep end.

 

[shields]

Greene has gone off the deep end.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Doesn't the roster make up, determine whether you finish last next year or not....??

You are rolling out 7 underclassmen next year and a JUCO that has not played High level CBB

Baker/Kiss/Doucoure/are sophomores

Mathis/McConnell/Myles Johnson/Harper Jr

Shaq Carter is a junior, along with Eugene/Thiam

Shaq Doorson is your senior, with extremely limited minutes and playing time over his career at RU

Young is a sit out transfer.....

I'm not a basketball "expert", but if your top 8 players are relatively green and you are playing in an elite conference, I don't see how RU isn't picked for last place next year....even if a miracle happened and you landed a Hyatt type of wing player, you have 9 players with only Baker/Eugene/Thiam/Doorson who've played any quality basketball opponents at a B1G level.

This isn't about a make or break Year 3....it's a 2 year window of this season and next season....Fans need to reset expectations on what this staff inherited...it was an upper-class type of roster of pieces that worked very hard and for the most part bought in.....we had to shed Diallo/Laurent who were also upperclassmen at the time, to then bring in a Eugene and Thiam stayed committed.

As happy as I am about the reworked roster and better shooting/passing/playmaking and expanded roster, anyone asking for anything crazy out of this roster (even if Sanders returned), isn't realistic.....we are deeper and more talented, but freshman are freshman for a reason and 2018-19 is a sorting out of the pieces year.....you need to find out what you have, throw the kids out there, adjust/tweak the roster/build confidence and hope Eugene/Thiam take steps as juniors to salvage something.

Even the Kentucky type programs with 5* freshman at every position, lose 9-11 games most years, in an improved SEC and elite schedule....The key is the last 2 spots and filling them with another quality or 2 player, that can support this 2018 class....anything more than that, is a little much.

Grad transfers may soften the impact, but to me, extends the learning curve more into 2019-2020....then fans will be complaining that the roster isn't developed fast enough to make strides, because you are not playing freshman or sophomores more minutes this season.

I can’t emphasize this enough

We have exactly 10 years of division one basketball experience among 11 players returning...and four of those 10 were limited roles (Doorson for three years and douxoure for 1)

There will be growing pains...but I think clear signs.

The good news is the entire team returns for 2019-2020, except Doorson. That flips

Point is...a .500 season (9-2 out of conference, 7-13 in big ten)...and 16-15, would not only be a MAJOR step from last year (10-3 out of conference, 3-15 in big ten play...13-18 and 11-2/3-15/14-17 the previous year) would be a HUGE step up in record ...and even BIGGER considering how young we are and the entire team return in 19-20 with young and two more pieces that hopefully upgrade wherever we are weakest...and thinking about making a run at a NCAA bid (with a NIT bid and .500 big ten record the goal)

Anything above 16-15 next year I don’t think is realistic nor even remotely likely. Just too young and too many new pieces

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

if I would have given the current timeline the day Pikiell was hired EVERYONE if given the choice would have said why bend over backwards to keep Sanders.

Anyone who says different is not honest.

 

[higgins3]

if I would have given the current timeline the day Pikiell was hired EVERYONE if given the choice would have said why bend over backwards to keep Sanders.

Anyone who says different is not honest.

Was Sanders that terrible of a player? We’ve seen Pikiell take some great strides here. If you are building a house and all they gave you was fresh concrete poured a year ago, why not use it instead of tearing it down and starting with nothing?

 

[higgins3]

Does Pikiell come here without any players in the roster? Not a bad q. The past three years have restored the fun of Rutgers basketball. I am looking forward. What’s done is done.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Shedding Sanders off his freshman season wasn't a good idea...he was the player that ultimately allowed the rebuild to start...
.

Definitely was there defensively.

I am almost certain if asked Pikiell would have done it differently.

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

Back to the OP.

With Pikiell following Massoud in Indy this weekend, he may be shaping up as his #1 target. In his is first two years, he personally followed the guy at the top of his list.

Year 1 it was Alvarado.
Year 2 it was Mathis.

He is 1-1, I'm hoping for 2-1 with Massoud.

 

[PaKnight]

2 years and 14 th place out of 14. Don't think we could have done worse.

Our team was built around 2 flawed players and now Year 3 is a rebuilding year.

No doubt Pikiell has built the foundation with a defensive identity so we are not on the ground floor.

He used what he had. Who did we pass up to keep Sanders and Freeman?

It could have been a lot worse.