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Small Sample Size - Offensive Comps 2024-25 vs 2023-24

lion1983

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May 2, 2024
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So ... we know this season's team needs a lot of work on defensive improvement, and we think they also need to improve their rebounding. But the offense, we know is better.

Through 10 games this season, admittedly a small sample size, especially when compared to the full season of 2023-24, even so ... here is a comparison:

2023-24 (Full Season)2024-25 (10 Games)Difference - In Percentage Points
RU FG %38.90%45.70%6.80%
RU 3-Point FG %28.70%32.70%4.00%
RU 2-Point FG %43.70%52%8.30%
RU FT %65.80%73.90%8.10%
Opp FG %40.80%43.90%3.10%
Opp 3-Point FG %32.70%34.20%1.50%
Opp 2-Point FG %46%50%4.00%
Opp FT %70%69.40%-0.60%
RU 3's as % of FG31,7%33.90%2.20%
Opp 3's % of FG39.40%38%-1.40%
RU Off Reb %33.30%33.20%-0.10%
Opp Off Reb %34.10%38%3.90%
RU Ass/TO11.330.00%
Opp Ass/TO0.8125.00%
RU TO/Game11.410.8-5.26%
Opp TO/Game14.912.5-16.11%
Rebound Margin-2.50.63.10
FT Spreads - RU v Opp:
By % FT Attempts103% - +3%132% - +32%
By % FT Made97% - -3%140% - +40%
 
Thought it would be interesting.

Several thoughts:

1) The improvement in offensive efficiency is WAY bigger than the drop off in defensive efficiency.

2) RU's rebounding is NOT as bad as it was last season, so far (better rebound margin by 3.1 rebounds/game).

3) Look at the last 2 lines: RU's number of FT's versus their opponents - by attempts and made FT's, is SO MUCH better than last season ... like HUGELY better.
 
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Now, on individual performances:

1) In 2023-24 RU had just FOUR (4) players who shot 50% or better from TWO-point range: Williams (50%), Omoruyi (51.8%), Woolfolk (52.4%) and Palmquist (61.5%). And Woolfolk and Palmquist each averaged fewer than 15 mpg. Contrast that with THIS year, albeit in just 10 games: RU has Has 4 players shooting 50% from 2-point range - but they are RU's 3 leading players: Harper (59%), Bailey (50%) and Williams (55%), plus Sommerville (55%), RU's 5th leading scorer. Derkack, RU's 4th leading player, is at 46%.

I would point out, additionally, last year's team had 3 shooters of volume who shot worse than 40% from 2-point range (Simpson at 31.3%, Fernandes at 34.7% and Griffiths at 37%).

I would also point out that for all that people are complaining about Derkack's poor shooting, his 2-point FG% is still a reasonable 46%. And Williams is at 55% from 2, versus last season at 50% from 2. FYI, Davis is at 37.5% 2-point FG %, versus last season at 41% - still a small sample size.

2) RU's 3-point FG %, individually, is MUCH better, also. Though not great, and hopefully to improve, Harper at 33%, Bailey at 32.4% are both better than Hyatt at 31% ... And martini and Hayes at over 40% are better than Fernandes at 35% ... and Acuff, in small sample size is at 40%.
 
Thought it would be interesting.

Several thoughts:

1) The improvement in offensive efficiency is WAY bigger than the drop off in defensive efficiency.

2) RU's rebounding is NOT as bad as it was last season, so far (better rebound margin by 3.1 rebounds/game).

3) Look at the last 2 lines: RU's number of FT's versus their opponents - by attempts and made FT's, is SO MUCH better than last season ... like HUGELY better.
Clearly , we are a better shooting team than last year as last year’s team could not shoot which is why we did not win. This year we have multiple shooters and on any given night can get highly efficient shooting games from Dylan, ACE , Jeremiah ,PJ , Acuff, and Lathan. Bodes real well for the gauntlet that is coming in conference. Our shooters have to keep on shooting and preferably off of kick outs , second chance buckets or in transition era . That should be a necessary part of every game. Dylan and ACE will attract multiple defenders and all the other players have to knock them down. Simple beautiful basketball.
 
Now, on individual performances:

1) In 2023-24 RU had just FOUR (4) players who shot 50% or better from TWO-point range: Williams (50%), Omoruyi (51.8%), Woolfolk (52.4%) and Palmquist (61.5%). And Woolfolk and Palmquist each averaged fewer than 15 mpg. Contrast that with THIS year, albeit in just 10 games: RU has Has 4 players shooting 50% from 2-point range - but they are RU's 3 leading players: Harper (59%), Bailey (50%) and Williams (55%), plus Sommerville (55%), RU's 5th leading scorer. Derkack, RU's 4th leading player, is at 46%.

I would point out, additionally, last year's team had 3 shooters of volume who shot worse than 40% from 2-point range (Simpson at 31.3%, Fernandes at 34.7% and Griffiths at 37%).

I would also point out that for all that people are complaining about Derkack's poor shooting, his 2-point FG% is still a reasonable 46%. And Williams is at 55% from 2, versus last season at 50% from 2. FYI, Davis is at 37.5% 2-point FG %, versus last season at 41% - still a small sample size.

2) RU's 3-point FG %, individually, is MUCH better, also. Though not great, and hopefully to improve, Harper at 33%, Bailey at 32.4% are both better than Hyatt at 31% ... And martini and Hayes at over 40% are better than Fernandes at 35% ... and Acuff, in small sample size is at 40%.
Re #1, Ogbole and Martini are also shooting above 50% on 2-pt shots.
 
As you and others have said, it's comparing part of one season (without the hard part of the schedule) to a full season. Still interesting and worthwhile to look at IMO. Thanks for posting.

Hopefully the team will continue to improve as the competition improves.
 
Clearly , we are a better shooting team than last year as last year’s team could not shoot which is why we did not win. This year we have multiple shooters and on any given night can get highly efficient shooting games from Dylan, ACE , Jeremiah ,PJ , Acuff, and Lathan. Bodes real well for the gauntlet that is coming in conference. Our shooters have to keep on shooting and preferably off of kick outs , second chance buckets or in transition era . That should be a necessary part of every game. Dylan and ACE will attract multiple defenders and all the other players have to knock them down. Simple beautiful basketball.
I was thrilled when Jeremiah's 3 at the buzzer was made. Had he missed it his career 3 point shooting would have been 24.6%, thankfully it is now sitting at 25.4%

Lathan has made 1 career 3 pointer..........and it was banked in.

That knocks your list down to 4.

Our best 3 point shooters are 2 guys that have a tough time seeing the court because their D is so bad....Hayes and Martini.
 
I was thrilled when Jeremiah's 3 at the buzzer was made. Had he missed it his career 3 point shooting would have been 24.6%, thankfully it is now sitting at 25.4%

Lathan has made 1 career 3 pointer..........and it was banked in.

That knocks your list down to 4.

Our best 3 point shooters are 2 guys that have a tough time seeing the court because their D is so bad....Hayes and Martini.
You are wrong again and not watching closely. Jeremiah hit big time threes against Alabama and Texas A&M and again against Penn State . I am talking this year. His shoulder injury has been affecting his three point shooting last year and partially this year but I am not saying “ OH No “ when the ball is rotated to Jeremiah or Dylan has found him. Acuff seems to be a good shooter and three point shooter. Frankly , I am suprised PJ hasn’t made more threes as he has missed open ones more than what I thought. Then you have Dylan and ACE so that is 5 legitimate 3 point shooters. I am not including Zack because of small sample size and reduction in his minutes . I did not mention Lathan in a 3 point context but that as another efficient shooter in a 2 point context so not sure why you were being snippy when you didn’t read the thread correctly. What list are you knocking down, MR. Snippy.
 
You are wrong again and not watching closely. Jeremiah hit big time threes against Alabama and Texas A&M and again against Penn State . I am talking this year. His shoulder injury has been affecting his three point shooting last year and partially this year but I am not saying “ OH No “ when the ball is rotated to Jeremiah or Dylan has found him. Acuff seems to be a good shooter and three point shooter. Frankly , I am suprised PJ hasn’t made more threes as he has missed open ones more than what I thought. Then you have Dylan and ACE so that is 5 legitimate 3 point shooters. I am not including Zack because of small sample size and reduction in his minutes . I did not mention Lathan in a 3 point context but that as another efficient shooter in a 2 point context so not sure why you were being snippy when you didn’t read the thread correctly. What list are you knocking down, MR. Snippy.
Jeremiah
4-16 25% this year in 2025
5-24 21% in 2024
12-52 23% in 2022
11-34 32% in 2021
32-126 25% career

PJ is 12-29 for 41% why would you be surprised he hasn't made more? He shot 39.5% last year

Zack Martini should be included in your analysis. He has played more this season than PJ.
 
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Yep, that skews the analysis; better would have been to do it through a comparable number of games and a comparable number of cupcake/tough games in both years.
We have a particularly freshman heavy team and an unusually low percent of returning players. So more improvement would be expected from this team over the course of a season than normal. I think these are just fun number to look at. Whatever your theory is about the team you will likely find something here to hang a hat on. Good fodder for a message board and that's about it.
 
Jeremiah
4-16 25% this year in 2025
5-24 21% in 2024
12-52 23% in 2022
11-34 32% in 2021
32-126 25% career

PJ is 12-29 for 41% why would you be surprised he hasn't made more? He shot 39.5% last year

Zack Martini should be included in your analysis. He has played more this season than PJ.
IMO Zack is in a funk and he is playing worse than just his known weaknesses (short, slow) would have suggested. Good chance he bounces back at some point and has a productive stretch.
 
Jeremiah
4-16 25% this year in 2025
5-24 21% in 2024
12-52 23% in 2022
11-34 32% in 2021
32-126 25% career

PJ is 12-29 for 41% why would you be surprised he hasn't made more? He shot 39.5% last year

Zack Martini should be included in your analysis. He has played more this season than PJ.
Jeremiah’s three point shots coming off of kick outs are fine even if only 25% so far. He has hit some timely ones against Texas A& M and Penn State in high level competition .
Pj is at 41% but he has missed wide open threes. Warming up he can hit 5 in a row and when he is wide open in the game I expect him to hit it. Missing the 17 shots on 12/29 I would bet almost 10 or more were uncontested and not forced , so yes I expected him to hit more especially if uncontested.
Acuff is also shooting 8/20 or 40% and starting to get into a little rhythm . It appears he will also be an effective 3 point shooter.
I am not including Zack because I think his minutes will be be cut going forward and his level of play against good competition , which is what we will have when the BIG 10 schedule resumes , has not been good at all. I cannot count on him.
 
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Jeremiah’s three point shots coming off of kick outs are fine even if only 25% so far. He has hit some timely ones against Texas A& M and Penn State in high level competition .
Pj is at 41% but he has missed wide open threes. Warming up he can hit 5 in a row and when he is wide open in the game I expect him to hit it. Missing the 17 shots on 12/29 I would bet almost 10 or more were uncontested and not forced , so yes I expected him to hit more especially if uncontested.
Acuff is also shooting 8/20 or 40% and starting to get into a little rhythm . It appears he will also be an effective 3 point shooter.
I am not including Zack because I think his minutes will be be cut going forward and his level of play against good competition , which is what we will have when the BIG 10 schedule resumes , has not been good at all. I cannot count on him.
I have made 40 straight 3 pointers and 90 out of 100 in an empty gym. It isn't hard

EDIT 19'9'' line 20+ years ago
 
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Jeremiah’s three point shots coming off of kick outs are fine even if only 25% so far. He has hit some timely ones against Texas A& M and Penn State in high level competition .
Pj is at 41% but he has missed wide open threes. Warming up he can hit 5 in a row and when he is wide open in the game I expect him to hit it. Missing the 17 shots on 12/29 I would bet almost 10 or more were uncontested and not forced , so yes I expected him to hit more especially if uncontested.
Acuff is also shooting 8/20 or 40% and starting to get into a little rhythm . It appears he will also be an effective 3 point shooter.
I am not including Zack because I think his minutes will be be cut going forward and his level of play against good competition , which is what we will have when the BIG 10 schedule resumes , has not been good at all. I cannot count on him.
Isn't PJ only at like 25% against P5 comp though? Can he increase that consistently?
 
Not sure what to make of this.

We know our defense is worse. We know our offense is better, but will it be enough to get us into the tourney?

How many possessions do we willingly take the wrong shot (type of shot and/or the wrong person shooting that shot with time on the shot clock)? Why would EO think driving to hole from the 3 point line was acceptable? It's speaks volumes about Pike's lack of coaching on offense and is what is going to keep us from going to the tourney. It's something that can be improved and doesn't require any additional talent or effort.

In the 2nd half of PSU, we seemed content to let the shot clock drain before trying to do something offensively. Baldwin had a chance to tie the game with under 10 seconds.
 
Isn't PJ only at like 25% against P5 comp though? Can he increase that consistently?
It is not the % which will go up , but the quality of the shot . PJ is getting almost all wide open threes. PJ’s form and stroke are pure and I expect him to hit 40% or even higher of his wide open looks. The whole team knows he can shoot and get hot as now it isn’t just Dylan feeding him but Lathan gave him a great pass on an open kick out. As long as he is not forcing it , I want him shooting as many open threes in every game.
 
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Not sure what to make of this.

We know our defense is worse. We know our offense is better, but will it be enough to get us into the tourney?

How many possessions do we willingly take the wrong shot (type of shot and/or the wrong person shooting that shot with time on the shot clock)? Why would EO think driving to hole from the 3 point line was acceptable? It's speaks volumes about Pike's lack of coaching on offense and is what is going to keep us from going to the tourney. It's something that can be improved and doesn't require any additional talent or effort.

In the 2nd half of PSU, we seemed content to let the shot clock drain before trying to do something offensively. Baldwin had a chance to tie the game with under 10 seconds.
Do you really think Pike coached E to dribble from the 3 point line ? You are delusional , as E just made a bad decision. What exactly was your problem with the offense in the first half ? Great ball movement , inside outside , pulling up on transition , great drives and kick outs. It was arguably our best half of basketball with the combination of 3 makes , 2 makes, and foul shots made. The passing was excellent as was the ball movement.
Really not sure what the hell your complaint is.
 
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I have made 40 straight 3 pointers and 90 out of 100 in an empty gym. It isn't hard

EDIT 19'9'' line 20+ years ago
I call bullshit and it is hard. The team practices foul shots and three point shots as part of every practice. I went to 2 practices in the preseason. PJ Hayes is a pure shooter , period. If he gets wide open looks , I am expecting him to hit at least 50% of them and with contested looks 40% , which is what he is averaging so far. But to me he has missed more wide open 3’s than I would have thought.
 
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I call bullshit and it is hard. The team practices foul shots and three point shots as part of every practice. I went to 2 practices in the preseason. PJ Hayes is a pure shooter , period. If he gets wide open looks , I am expecting him to hit at least 50% of them and with contested looks 40% , which is what he is averaging so far. But to me he has missed more wide open 3’s than I would have thought.

Most threes people take are open and ain’t nobody hitting 50% of them. That’s not realistic. 40%, sure.
 
I call bullshit and it is hard. The team practices foul shots and three point shots as part of every practice. I went to 2 practices in the preseason. PJ Hayes is a pure shooter , period. If he gets wide open looks , I am expecting him to hit at least 50% of them and with contested looks 40% , which is what he is averaging so far. But to me he has missed more wide open 3’s than I would have thought.
OK.
 
Most threes people take are open and ain’t nobody hitting 50% of them. That’s not realistic. 40%, sure.
Not everybody and not talking about everybody. If I gave Jordan in a game 10 open 3’s he is not making more than 2-3. If he hit 1-10 I wouldn’t be suprised. If I gave PJ 10 open threes in a game , I am expecting him to make 4-5. He is a shooter. Plus most people have some kind of contest of their threes. Hicks hit 6-10 for Penn State but 2 were running to get off screens and in motion. . What I am talking about with PJ , is he is standing in a spot , corner , top of the key , foul line extended , no one on him and he is standstill awaiting the pass . He is not cutting off screens , although we should be doing that much more with him , he is stationary. He should knock down at least 4-5 out of 10 .
 
The EO drive was 1 example. I'd estimate at least 10+ possessions a game have a self-inflicted sub optimal shot (not looking at shots when shot clock is under 7-8).

The entire team feels they are a main character on offense. That's a lack of coaching.

Should LS be posting up if Ace or Dylan has the ball on the wing? They aren't here to give an entry pass to the post. He basically acts as a 6th defender when he does this. He continues to do it.
 
The EO drive was 1 example. I'd estimate at least 10+ possessions a game have a self-inflicted sub optimal shot (not looking at shots when shot clock is under 7-8).

The entire team feels they are a main character on offense. That's a lack of coaching.

Should LS be posting up if Ace or Dylan has the ball on the wing? They aren't here to give an entry pass to the post. He basically acts as a 6th defender when he does this. He continues to do it.

Cool story
 
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